1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) note the pop in the CRB index, I recently was the ONLY guy around to have given as a long buy....decent chart support, plus NO bulls around, in most commodities, yes ? ....2) our puttable-from $ 48. "HAL" announced earnings which beat street estimates, but its stock continues to form rolling top, dig ? the pattern never changes...normal action for stage 4, S.T. Also, Crude itself rose Fri. to approach its high.... 3) the 'Russell 2000 Index' itself looks like it might break below its 200 DMA....and pull back to its longer-term support, which, if occured, would, again, set up another golden opportunity, similar to last summer's after that correction.... 4) the London FTSE index, is declining to approach its S.T. support, in broadening top....the Nikkei. should follow, ahead, similarly.... 5) interestingly, let me be the first/only, to point out some developing tops, among REIT's, some of which I gave you herein near their bottoms, when everyone who liked them recently, hated them, months ago....While I do not automatically "link" fundamentals with stock moves, as you know, this may dove-tail with the R.E. top I see, commercial also, in many areas.... 6) and, note added more Defense/Aerospace stocks again as Puts after all....patience may pay off again ? ....7) Last, it is still way too soon, but some "Toy" stocks are getting near watchable levels.... and too soon for "Gaming" stocks....and, why are some Airline and Air Freight stocks looking S.T. toppy ? I am likely the first/only to see this, coming, as well....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC floor NASD guy, Thu., near the close, saidk, "everyone I talk with says the same thing: there's a loack of conviction among longside buyers out there...." 2) Thu. CNBC's Bob Pisani, 10:30 am, showing his normal lack of perspective, said, (in relief) "we have a bottom in the battered Techs and Bank stocks." Oh, really ? and what evidence do you have for that misleading statement ? ....3) All the major newspapers have been giving "tables" showing "earnings reports" lately, you know, est. vs. actual, % changes, etc. Well, YOU should be checking how the stocks of companies with some of the bigger "changes" did, before/after announcing their eps, just to prove to yourself, again, how such fundamentals do NOT automatically translate into the ability to easily predict future stock price moves....for instance, most of the stocks of companies reporting Lower eps results, have Risen lately, etc. ....4) a caller-in on CNBC's M.F. interview, Fri. 23 rd, 9:50 am, suggested, "AWEB" "has got to be the most undervalued stock/company around", gushing with all sorts of supposedly phenomenal fundamentals, cash bal., new contracts, growth results, etc. Well, if one views its chart (heaven forbid any caller-in on CNBC would actually do so), one would see, that it is anything but undervalued....next....
5) Bob CNBC PIsani, Fri., 9:55 am, reported "a pretty-good Semiconductor Ind. book-to-bill ratio", mentioning a fundamental analyst liking KLAC, AMAT, NVLS, LRCX, etc. up here....Well, gee, when I was recommending these types of stocks, LAST YEAR AT THEIR LOWS, the "book-to-bill ratio" was lousy, yes ? And, the same analysts who love the stocks now, hated them then, right ? For the upteenth time: if one waits for "better/good news", one misses the majority of most all stock price rises....next.... 6) Fri., 23 rd, 10:02 am, Pisani, he of the incorrect "drifting up" comment a few days ago, now, said, "we are drifting down....no strong sectorial action".... Excuse me ? Is he not watching what we are seeing ? What a waste of airtime, hurting millions of nice viewers....Then he said, lamenting, "Now, with the T-bond yield back over 6 %, I dread having to talk about the Bond again for the next month or however long it stays over 6 %...." Gee, Bob....you get overpaid a ridiculous amount of money to report the facts, jerk....Shut up, we don't want your emotional, S.T. opinions, and report some actual, helpful items.... 7) and, this section would not be complete, without a gal on CNBC saying something ignorant: Mon. 26th, several times during the day, was trumpeting "Food, Beverages, Drugs, Merchandising" stocks/groups, as supoosedly "hot sectors, likely to do well no matter how high interest rates rise, because people have to eat, drink, buy things, etc." ....oy. My goodness, aren't there higher-ups on CNBC who check what reporters say, before they put it out on the air ? Anyway, I am not even going to glorify that statement of hers, as YOU should know how NOT true her opinion has been, historically....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Thu. 22nd, AMZN got hit, even though they beat Wall Street's fundamental expectations numbers....Also, note, exactly as I specifically predicted in my "most Internet stocks top" signal, given in mid-Jan. '99, they experienced the slowest revenue growth in the company's history....like I said, the beginning of the end for many Internet companies...."but, JIm, aren't all stock splits bullish ?" yeah, right....next.... 2) L.A. Times, 7/21, "Crude Oil price Drops 5 % on Output Comment": as predicted here first, had the biggest one-day drop in several months, after Venezuelan oil guy said they will increase production when/if Crude gets near $ 22. bbl....of course, Crude's recent high was "only" $ 20.70, and fell to $ 19.20 already, one would think, "if" OPEC is already at 94 % of promised output, the surprises would seem to be on the downside in Oil, yes ? Another reason, besides chart patterns, why I gave you the Oil Svc. stocks as Puts at recent highs....last, API. figures show U.S. inventories are "abundant", something you would think all those overpaid "experts" would know, yes ? Hmmmm, supplies increasing after prices rise, what a novel concept.... elementary economics, ay ? But they got it wrong, and we got it right, yet again .... 3) NOT an anti-democrat political comment by me, but, regarding CNBC's new 'sound bite' commercial of V.P. Al Gore, saying, "I know how to keep the prosperity going...." hit me, in that, as you should know, NO major Politician ever "knows how to keep financial/economic times going", I don't care what party they are affiliated with....don't get me started....but just to remind you again, of how politics is NOT "linkable" with economics, nor any future investment price moves....another thing which "the 95 %" often incorrectly insist on putting into their brains....re-read my booklet on "scenarios"....I am not anti-people, just anti-politicians/politics....
4) Bob Pisani., Fri. (and all day Thu.) over-reporting AOL's price moves, saying, at $ 107, "higher-trading-volume means stronger hands are selling it, and the decline will be accelerating"....gee, AOL is still above its low near $ 90. from last month, yes ? and, how come you said nothing like this, from its high when it was around $ . ? ....5) O.C. Register, 7/24, front-page headline, "Chevron takes hit, but not Mobil"....huh ? Chevron's earnings fell -22 %, and Mobil's earnings barely fell....O.K., but their "stock" prices both remain near their mutli-year highs....So, eactly what got "hit" ? And, the day of this news story, CHV stock did not fall....the L.A. Times, same day, headlined, "damage to refinery hits Chevron hard"....maybe so, but its STOCK, is UP in the last year, dig ? ....6) O.C. Register, 7/24, front-page headline story on co. "Cardiac Science" --- only AFTER its stock, which had had a depressed "PSYCLE sm" base around $ 1 1/2, but was never written about positively then, of course, is already up to $ 5 -ish, dig ? According to the reporter, at $ 1 1/2, the company was "comatose"....and, now, is "revived", get it ? the pattern never changes.... 7) O.C. Register, 7/24, "Gardenburger Cp. suffers after 'Seinfeld' ride": "on the news, the stock fell to an all-time low, below $ 6." Remember around the Seinfeld TV show finale, and the Super-Bowl commericial, this stock was semi-parabolic, and the Media loved it and raved about it ? Well, predictably, their sales are down -69 % since, and, well, you know the normal "PSYCLE sm" action....check these charts out, gang....see the progression ?
5) another nice front-page article, O.C. Register and L.A. Times (rare, both, same day), 7/22, headline, "the tale of three companies....broadband firms' stars are rising", showed stock charts of BRCM, CNXT, WDC, as, supposedly, two "great, bullish" stocks/companies, and one "lousy, weak, unsuccessful" company/stock ....dig ? Gee, anyone viewing these charts, would easily see the "PSYCLE sm" ramifications: BRCM and CNXT as stage 4 parabolics, and WDC, while Not yet a buy nor a base, certainly is much cheaper/depressed....They wrote, "BRCM and CNXT are enjoying rising profits and soaring stock prices thanks to the boom in Internet and Telecom equip., but cheap PC's have turned profits into losses at WDC, causing investors to flee." Wow, alomst perfect "PSYCLE sm" signals, soon, yes ? we shall see....Also same front -page, same newpaper (O.C.R.), headline, "Oakley expects to lose footing....its shoe business takes toll on income and stock", is also misleading....As briefly as I can make it, "OO" (mostly sunglasses) launched a "shoe" line last year, and they hardly do any of their sales in shoes anyway, yet...."If" one assumed "fundamentals" might affect stock price moves (and we know they rarely do), then, one would have to see, how "OO" stock, is NOT 'down' on that "news", but instead, remains above its $ 6+ low, being around $ 9. now, yes ? making their whole article a waste....next....Last, same front-page, headline, "soaring subscriptions help AOL triple earnings, beating street estimates".... this, as AOL stock falls, yes ? The patterns never change....Hmmmm, one front- page, three "PSYCLE sm" help-stories....neat.
6) Fri., 10:16 am, CNBC's Bill Griffith interviewed CEO of our "SGI.", Silicon Graphics, which, to him, reported, "stellar earnings....profits, vs. expected losses....the street missed the estimates by a mile"....two "PSYCLE sm" helps with this item: one, every overpaid analyst around missed this co.'s fundamentals big-time, disliking it near its lows when I added it here for you, and, two, they announced a "turnaround", only AFTER its stock, which I gave you near its lows herein, using just good technical chart pattern recognition, was ALREADY up a bunch, dig ? last, its stock has still NOT broken above its previous highs anyway, right ? So, again, we sell on the news, for your benefit, yes ? And, Mon., was under 16.... 7) an Insider activity expert, on CNBC, Mon. 26 th, 9:25 am, said, Insiders at our Puttable "JNPR" are actually buying chares, in the open market, around $ 145-150., which is rare, historically....This is true, and will also provide a rare opportunity for them to lose money....He then showed tons of Insider sellers in "GBLX", a successful Put I gave you herein near triple-top "PSYCLE sm" high....interesting, since, while I do NOT in any way like the stock here, it IS already down towards its 200 DMA potential support, in the 35-40. area, see it ? Why did they not at least hedge it near its top ? When I get time, I hope to finish that "Insider Activity, the "PSYCLE Way" booklet I previously mentioned, for your benefit, combining technical/chart patterns, with Insider behavioral patterns....
6) L.A. TImes, 7/21, headline, "S & P slaps China with credit downgrade": "amid growing political tension betwen China and Taiwan, China suffered another psychological blow Wed. as S & P cut nation's credit rating." Then, the next sentence: "but Chinese stocks rallied nevertheless...." Get it ? More: "this action highlighted the problems of the economic cycle in China, masking waekness in private sector and falling net exports...." I will check charts of the China stocks they listed, to see if any are depressed bases, right ? ....7) for what it's worth, the pres. of Lucent, CNBC, Fri., 23 rd, said, "We don't see any Y2K issues being a major problem for any of our technology brethren."
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) John Buckingham, of The Prudent Speculator, added, IGL, BELF, SVGI., to Al Franks' L.T. buy list, and, Homebuilding, Steel, Copper stocks....we differ often on specifics, but I like that they tend to buy lower than most NL writers....nowhere nearly as low as WE do, but I will call them and offer my services, since they are local.... 2) just FYI, Fri. 23 rd, 8:20 am, the Elliott Wave Theorist is bearish on Silver (why now ?), was bullish late on the T-bond (only from 115+, had a loss- can they not read a chart ?), says Crude Oil will make another new high above $ 20.70 (we have been bearish since the top), and is now bearish on the T-bond, calling for a rise in its interest rate to over 6.26 %, and under $ 113. on the Sept. T-bond contract....interestingly, he gave no "stock market opinion"....why not ? ....3) on CNBC, big M.F. mgr. fundamentalist guy, continued to glow about Pfizer stock, saying, "a great company, very well managed, with a huge pipeline of drugs coming, a stellar company for the long haul ...." Oy....that same old saw again....If I had a buck for every time I heard that same tired series of vacuous comments, from the very managers whom people pay to know better, who nevertheless held "PFE" all the way down from its obvious "PSYCLE sm" "Viagra high", well....Anyway, YOU should learn, again, that those "fundamentals" also existed a year ago as well, right ? But this stocks only went, $ 29, 50, 32, so, obviously, none of "those" fundamentals mean(t) anything, anyway, right ? Otherwise, PFE would have risen a ton more, and never would have corrected, right ? 'nuff said.... 4) L.T. Oil industry guru, a guy I have respected, Charlie Maxwell, Mon. 26 th, on CNBC, 8:55 am, loves all the Natural Gas stocks, and Drillers, up here, for new buys....a little late, ay ? he sounded like there was very little risk, even up here, fundamentally, after big price rises....funny, I don't remember him being super-bullish near the lows, when we gave them out herein, do you ? S.T. stage 2 behavior, at least, yes ?
e) 1) Fri., 23 rd, CNBC, I not sure what to make of this one, yet, but I am leery/suspicious: the NYSE itself, announced intentions of going public before Thanksgiving....seems like a bit of aconflictof interest ? of course, been plenty of crooks associated with the NYSE over the years, but it does serve a wonderful purpose....But, been a very, very private organization since inception, still filled with plenty of "old money" going back 100+ years....My initial reaction is that few companies that 'go public' after many years, helps the masses, as much as it helps the selling insiders, dig ? Plus, then, the public has to have access to their rtecords, etc. Maybe I am getting too jaundiced ? When I hear more, will tell you more.... 2) 7/23, the Dept. of Defense, said, that "its systems will be safe, secure, and reliable on 1/1/00, and, of the 2,107 computer systems deemed critical to DOD missions, 92 % have been fully verified as ready for Y2K, and of the 198 nuclear systems critical to missions, all but two are fully verified...." Just FYI....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts TERN (54+ to 42+) for VQ 111% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TGX (6++ to 11) for Q 90% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TMD (7 to 9+) for 60% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CGI. (21+ to 27-) for 44% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. BKI. (13 to 16+) for 40% G....1/2 pos. puts VRSN (92- to 77+) for VVVQ 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. SOC (5+ to 7+) for 66% G....
and/but, longs, (note, did not sell FOTO), but did 'sell', RDRT, MAN, TZA, SXTN, NOV, GSR, HUM ?, WIX, and, puts, RCL, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. BGP @ 14+, MCK @ 30+,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones today !) BGO @ 9/16, BYX @ 3 9/16, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CDE @ 4+, DAY @ 0.08, GISH @ 2 13/16, GRERF @ 0.28, HEC @ 1 11/16, HNV @ 2 1/2, HZP @ 5.06, KRY @ 5/8, MB @ 2 7/16, MMP @ 9++, PSFT @ 13++, SCY @ 4 1/4, STEI. @ 13-, SVRN @ 12, TWA @ 4+, UQM @ 4 3/16, VGZ....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, HS, SLE, THC, SIF, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AXP @ 137, BBBY @ 38-, CG @ 64, CHD @ 44+, DRTE @ 40-, IMN @ 25++, LC @ 54-, MYG @ 74-, PKY @ 34, PMI. @ 38+, SNT @ 36+, VRLN @ 39+,
"Repeats": ALGX @ 59+, ASD @ 48++, BHI. @ 34, C. @ 49++, DD @ 73, EAT @ 28++, FMX @ 41-, ICOS @ 41, JNPR @ 152+, PERC @ 50-, PKS @ 40+, POM @ 31-, RNWK @ 90+, ROI/A @ 45+, SEE @ 65, TRY @ 21, WFT @ 38+,
Note, the "puttables" lists have been grwoing....You have had plenty of opportunities to have caught all of these "repeats', as most all re-hit suggested puttable prices more than 1-2-3-times recently....
and/but, took, AYE, EDS, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here) ....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", EXX/A, BTGC, OMI., WHX, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, KSWS, PSIX, MEDQ, VERT, PWR, WMT, HON, PLCE, NDN, TWX, TEF, LUV, PBI, CNXT, FRO, CBS, ALD, CMCSK, ORCL, SEBL, GPSI, INPH, ETEK, PBI, UTR, NX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock here was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
NPRO 2 7/8 up 1, TSA 4 3/8 up 5/8, "the CRB index", 191.4, up 9.0 (sos), MCK 32 up 1 7/8, BLM 3 3/8, SWW 4, BCP 7, KSE 27 5/8, SGU 18, higher still, since last time here....also, CBTSY hit 30, BOBJ 48, higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: TBP 7 1/2 up 5/8, SVRN 12 1/2 up 5/8, AFG 33 7/8, DGN 15 up 1 1/2, TSA 3 7/8, BXH, NEM 18 3/8, AU 20 7/8, IFMX, STEI., HEC, PLC, BYX, RAD, TMK, HPH, GDC, BUNZ, CCC, RAL, CNC, HLX, LDW, TXM, APFC, HIV, TXB, TWA, WTT, UFC, TPS, MSN, ESC, RTC, CCH, STE, IDC....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) HUM, PSFT, CNC, UFC, HLX, ESC, WTT, STEI, CDT, TMK, AFG, TWA, NPSI, HCM, UQM, NOV, FTL, UFC, ATV, DGN, RTC, HIV, TXB, BYX, DAY, SSC, OMM, ESC, RYO, CAU, MSN, WH....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
lots of decliners, read carefully: GNET -9, CMVT -5 1/2, VOD -5 1/2, RNWK -5, BTY -4 1/2, FMX -3 1/2, YHOO -5, MMXI. -4, CHD -3, SYKE -3, GMH -2 1/2, TERN -2, TSM -2, MYG -2, ROI/A -1 1/2, DRTE -1 1/2, OAT -1 1/2, AXP -1 1/2, BBBY -1, CCL -1, ALGX -1, ROI/A -1, IMN -1, FMX -1, TSI. -1, DD -1, BRK/A -200, ONE -1 1/2, ADI., GPS, POM, XRX, down/further, since last time here....also notice, I was off by one day on POWI., fell to 50-, wow....such is life....and, see, SBH fell to 56, MACR 30-, CTXS, lower still....also note, TVGIA, NTRS, NTBK, LVLT, EBAY, BSYS, MSPG, CSN, all given you near their highs herein, fell towards/to/below their 200 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see many stocks break below recent
lows/necklines, and, so far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the
recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own,
regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not
break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, AZC, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL), others are already up....
Insur./Financial: (AFG, TW, SVRN, ALL, TMK)
and, Cyclical/Steel/Copper, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....but the Steels have been improving, technically....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, AEG, MCK, NCT, CKR, RPM, RML, MCL, BAL, MCK, LWN, KEG, TSA, UNA, ALI, to, BLD, BGP, GLB, WHX, WRE, HLX, SPC, OMI, CPU, CDN, MXG, HPH, TLD, CBR, HA, LTV, TXM, HZP, AVM, EAR, TKN, CDE, NTN, HIV, MT, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) BYX, CCC, CWC, FNL, GDC, GLDR, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, RTC, SAMC, SCY, SHOW, TTRIF, TWA, UQM, WGA, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers.... still, not that great a list, in the main.... which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, MMP, NHC, OMI, KSE, RHI., TEN, to, BCP, ADM, IHK, NVX, NX, BOGN, STE, CYB, PMD, SEM, TW, HLT, NCT, SGE, GNRL, TPS, CDT, TXM, VL, VCR, IDC, IRSN, ONX, GISH, PBY, NHP, LDW, TIE, IFMX, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
** note, these Puts lists are Growing still more....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: BIO/A, CCBL, INPH, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: PCS, NMR, BTY, TEF, SBC, YHOO, VCI., VRSN, GCI, CMCSK, GNET, CCU, AT, MFNX, CVC, etc.
Financial/Bank: PAYX, ABK, EQ, XRX, NTRS, ONE, JPM, MMC, SEIC, PL, etc.
Energy Services: SDC, BHI, BJS, NBR, WFT, SDC, HAL, SLB, APA, etc.
Chemical-relateds: HPC, DEX, ECL, WAT, SEE, PCH, ALD, etc.
Retail/Clothing: BBBY, IBI, DG, ANF, SCNYB, FDS, DDS, DD, FMX, LTD, TOM, GPS, etc.
maybe, Aero/Defense ?: LIT, UTX, ROK, RTN, PROX, GAC, near highs only, (POWI., already down), etc.
other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below....
**** new ones: many more added, AA, ACS, AFFX, AFM, ALD, AXP, BVEW, CHRW, DISH, DLTR, ELUX, GAC, GTSG, JNY, LC, LIT, MYG, NTAP, PEGS, PEB, PKY, PROX, SGY, SUI, RDC, CBS, CG, CTS, WCOM, SCAI, VRLN, USFC, RMDY, PHCM, TWX, UTX, to, ADI., AMGN, APA, BBBY, BOL, CHD, CPWM, CVC, DD, DDS, EAT, FMX, GPS, HAL, HDI., HON, INPH, INTC, JBL, JNPR, LTD, MARG, MEDQ, MFNX, MRD, NX, PB, PL, PCH, POM, PHCC, PLX, PSIX, PWR, RBAK, RNWK, SANM, SEBL, SLB, SYKE, TEF, TI., TOM, TSI., VIA, WORK, to, MSPG, DEX, ALGX, ESST, GPSI, CCL, UTC, TRY, ROI/A, ASD, AT, IMN, SFA, SFX, TERN, TRK, TSM, VERT, to,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, ASND, ASTE, AWRE, BSYS, CMCSK, CPN, EL, EXDS, FO, LXK, PKS, PL, SCAI., VTEL, VRTY, XLNX, and most "amex WEBS" securities....note, some of these already pulled back off highs, so one wants to Put them, if at all, into rallies opnly, yes ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Publishing", "Aerospace/Defense", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies/Oil Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Banking, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Retail, Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: none today, take some time to VIEW some charts....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....