1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) the Oil Svc. stocks pulled back, INTO rise in "crude" price....bouncing, Wed./Thu. ....remember, we are not 'attached' to ANY scenario or any individual I.G.... 2) an excellent chart shown on CNBC, Mon. 26 th, 12:45 pm, by John Roque, illustrating, as I first pointed out to you herein a while ago, that "T-Bond rates" remain in an intermediate-term Up-trend, well within a slow uptrend channel since I was among the first/only to call for a L.T. bottom in interest rates around 4+ % , last year herein....He also showed this being the third time in recent months, that his A/D indicators showing bearish S.T., with the "cumulative breadth of the SPX 100 and big Tech. stocks" deteriorating....he sees 6 1/2 % on the T-bond, and more correction for the extended stocks I share herein....it's nice when a sharp guy appears....all too rare, as you know....meanhwile, allied, the DJ. Util. Avg., which I was the among the first/only to have given, first, as long buy near lows, then, as Put, nearrecent highs herein, broke further Wed./Thu.... 3) as I recently intimated, do not listen to CNBC over-reporting every few points moves on the Semi. stocks up here, as they are all likely forming longer tops, technically....note, they kept "trying-to-talk-up" the Extended Semis, all week, yet, few made new highs, and are now correcting as expected in their "PSYCLE sm", dig ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) for unknown reasons, CNBC's Bob Pisani. continues to mention "COL" as a "company doing well, sales up nicely, improving fundamantals, etc." Someone from the co. must have gotten to him....But, if you remember, I was the first/only to have given out COL in its beautiful S.T. base, earlier in 1999 (I know that several subscribers caught it for big gain....see the pattern from then ?), and now, note, the "better/less negative news" came out, only AFTER the stock was ALREADY up a bunch, again....the pattern never changes .... 2) CNBC"s Bob Pisani, Tue. 27 th, 11:04 am, commenting on a huge (3 mm shs.) block of one of our potential puyttables, "PCS", "someone bought a ton of this stock, it looks very positive, something must be going on there...." Gee, Bob, didn't some people also simultaneously SELL 3 mm shs. to them ? Remember, as I have taught you, generally, huge blocks AFTER big rises, differ, from huge blocks, after huge declines, dig ? Which would YOU rather buy/short ? ....3) on CNBC, Thu. 9 am, politican Lyle Bramley (forgot from which state), commenting on how he "doesn't see any wage/price presssures anywhere in our economy, things look just great", said, "I fail to understand why the market is looking at all this so negatively...." That's right, Mr. Politician-and-not-educated-in-investing, you don't understand anything about stock markets.... 4) actually a decently helpful message from Bob 'CNBC' PIsani, Thu. 29 th, 10:05 am (see ? when he DOES say something potentially valuable, I DO put it in here): quoting someone else, saying, some "signs of a potential matrket top ?", listing: exchanges going public, fewer cash takeovers, fewer stock buybacks announced, divergence in new/highs/lows vs. indexes....all items I have specifically already pointed out to you in rfecent times.... 5) last, all day Thu., from NASDAQ's "market site, CNBC's new emotional reporter-guy with no proper perspective, misleading people constantly, said, "MSFT is getting whacked, down 3 points, or 3.5 %" Since when is only 3.5 %, "whacked" ? He mentioned yet another article about the Giovt. wanting to break-up MSFT....so what....Hey, I am as jealous and didainful of MSFT as 90 % of everyone else, and have STILL properly not tried to catch their Puts much over the years (because it has rarely had the "PSYCLE sm" top pattern yet), but the fact is, MSFT stock IS up a bunch, still, since they started this whole bashing thing, right ? and, until I see a better top pattern, MSFT still has decent 200 DMA support, not too far under it, around the $ 76 to 80+. area.... Not enuf to warrant bashing it, yes ?
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) the pattern never changes: Tues. 27 th, 10:20 am, CNBC had the pres. of our "AFCI" on, now, only after its stock, which we had near its low around $ 5. last Fall (down from over $ 40., where all the "expert analysts" loved it, right ?), is already up to over $ 15-16, dig ? And the co.'s earnings are still falling....CNBC never even mentioned this stock in stage 1, excepot negatively....learn, for the umpteenth time: if one waits for "better fundamentals", one most often misses the best/easiest stock rise....Bill Griffith closed by saying, "things are looking up for this company"....amazing, huh.... 2) note recent weakness in our "ESC", a Q, very S, Loss for us....Note the huge Insider Purchases" in the past year, the initial predicted-but-too-small price rise off its saucer base, then, faded....as I have said many times, "just having tons of Insider activity alone" will NOT automatically overcome a less-than-attractive technical chart pattern ....3) also note declines among Drug stocks, even as they "beat the street" earnings, better-then-expected, dig ? ditto, our Chemical stocks.... 4) last, in a beautifully-timed (from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v.) article, a major magazine now suggests higher Oil prices, when, they have already BEEN rising, for a while now ! amazing, huh....the pattern never changes....Hence our Puts in some of those stocks....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Yet more proof, that "buying Last year's strongest M. Funds, is a LOSING proposition: O.C. Register, 7/25, Humberto Cruz's column, showed, for the umpteenth time, that, had one bought last year's strongest MF's each following Jan. 1st, and switched to the next year's strongest MF's, over the most recent 8 years beginning 1/1/91 through 12/31/98, one would have had - are you ready for this - a compounded annual LOSS, of -40 % a year !!! Yup, it's a FACT: each $ 10,000 invested based on last year's strongest MF's, over that 8 years, would have SHRUNK - are you ready for this - to only $ 16. (you read that right)....This, according to Mark Hulbert....saying, "short-term performance means nothing with MF's, less than 20 % of all MF's beat the market over time", just 2 of the 8 Funds even matched the indexes the following year....Of further interest, and another in a long line of reasons why my "PSYCLE sm" detests most MF's, period, as you know, is that, even choosing the MF's with the best 5- and 10-year records, each following year, would NOT have beaten the "averages"....Conclusion: just do your longside stocks INDIVIDUALLY, diversifying somewhat, using I.G. Rotation, the "PSYCLE sm Way".... 2) Prudential, correctly downgraded PIXR, Tues. 27 th....it was not in my charts booklet last weekend, or I would have caught this one for you....With so many B-firm wrong so often, wanted to give them their props...."PSYCLE sm" lesson: last year, an old friend gushed at the fundamental prospects for PIXR, buying the heck out of the stock up at its highs, when a major magazine made the co. its front-page story, dig ? Well, you know the rest of the story....he got mad at me when, seeing a nice inetrmediate-term top in its charts, I suggested selling, lightening up, or at least protecting his position....but, of course, he did not, the stock fell nicely, and he never cfalls me....Try going through 20+ years of such treatment, and you get a small idea what I endure.... And again recently, PIXR formed another triple-top, just as the Media loved it ....the pattern never changes.... 3) Stephen Leeb was on KWHY-tv, Tues. after close, saying, "the case for Energy stocks from up here is absolutely phenomenal" (a quote) He Loves them, now (where was he near their lows ?)....also, a caller-in pointed out that he was quite wrong last year, and asked why he was now saying the exact opposite of what he said lat year, and he ignored and did not answer that question at all....what a shame....He also said, we are "guaranteed much higher inflation from here", and also Loves, WCOM and CSCO from up here, saying, "no matter what happens they both will benefit forever...." Wow. We shall see.... 4) 7/14, Ralph "often perma-bull-but-also-nebullious" Acampora, Paine Webber, said, "the correction is over, new highs ahead"....he wrote, "we did not see the downside climax expected, and investors are still complacent, but, we love many stocks here, like, AIT, WEL, PRD, WLM...." One foot on the shore, the other on the boat, ay, Ralph ? Did you give out ANY puts before the recent correction ? I don't think so....
e) O.K., I hate "scenarios", but, it is true recently, thet, July 1999 will be (so far) an all-time record month $ for issuance (supply) of "bonds" in the history of the U.S.A., and that is also helping raise interest rates a bit, as more supply chases lower demand....
f) a caller-in on Bill Seidman's CNBC moment, Thu. 29 th, 8:55 am, asked "how politicians can say they want to put 'more' money into the Social Security Trust Fund, when there is NO money in that "fund" today, anyway ?" VG question....get it ? Gang, there IS no 'money' in any S.S. coffers ! Any that might have been there, has been systematically and immorally stolen from that potential "fund", to pay for pork, political perks, entitlements, and interest on the debt, in OTHER Govt. items, over recent years, and your Govt. has just not made that fact as public as they should have....What the politicians SHOULD have said, was, use any S.T. "supposed surpluses" (dont' get me started), INTO a S.S.T fund, in the first place....last, you DO realize, there is no such thing as Govt. "lowering taxes" in reality, don't you ? What they may "seem" to give in one hand, they have always taken away in the one they don't show you....But, I assume, you already know all this....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/21 pos. puts GNET (90+ to 64+) for VQ % Gain....puts DRQ (24+ to 18) for Q 125% Gain....1/2 pos. puts MMXI (51+ to 39+) for VVQ 100% G....puts TERN (55- to 40-) for VQ 125% G....1/2 pos. puts XRX (60- to 48+) for VVVQ 111% G....bal. calls RAL (26+ to 30) for Q 75% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. BXH (4+ to 7+) for 90% G.... stock PLC (3.06 to 4.31) for VQ 35% G....stock BLM (2.06 to 3.31) for L.T. 55% G ....1/2 pos. puts ADI (49- to 42+) for VVVQ 80% G....bal. puts GLK (48++ to 44) for 44% G....1/2 pos. puts TSM (34+ to 30) for VQ 75% G....puts SYKE (32 to 26+) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts ASTE (41+ to 33+) for VVQ 100% G....bal. stock SWW (2+ to 4-) for 60% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CCC (5 5/8 to 7 1/8) for 50% G.... 1/2 pos. stock NPRO (1 1/2 to 2 5/8) for 66% G....
and/but, longs, FOTO, MMP, TSA, ESC, STEI, HUM, FTL, AFG, and, puts, AXP (143 to 133 to 143), WAT (56 to 49+ to 56+), IMN, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. ABTX @ 5-, AGT @ 5 7/16, BAL @ 1 13/16, MSM @ 9++, RPM @ 14-, 1/2 pos. SIF @ 8.06, TEN @ 23 1/8,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones today !) ATV @ 1 1/4, BGO @ 9/16, BGP @ 14, BYX @ 3 9/16, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CDE @ 4+, DAY @ 0.08, GRERF @ 0.28, HEC @ 1 11/16, HNV @ 2 1/2, HZP @ 5.06, KRY @ 5/8, MAN @ 21+, MB @ 2+, PSFT @ 13++, SCY @ 4 1/4, TWA @ , UQM @ 4 3/16, VGZ....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, TTRIF, SHOW, MIDI, CBRL, GLDR, ONPT, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AFM @ 56, AIG @ 120, CCL @ 49+, CPWM @ 47+, DLTR @ 45-, NWAC @ 35-, TEF @ 50-,
"Repeats": ASD @ 48++, AT @ 74, BHI. @ 34, BTY @ 182+, CBS @ 46, CG @ 64++, DD @ 73+, EAT @ 28++, INTC @ 71-, JNPR @ 149+, LC @ 54-, LEA @ 50, MMC @ 81-, PERC @ 50+, PKY @ 34, PMI. @ 38+, SNT @ 36+, TRY @ 21, WFT @ 39,
Note, the "puttables" lists have been growing....You have had plenty of opportunities to have caught all of these "repeats', as most all re-hit suggested puttable prices more than 1-2-3-times recently....
and/but, took, USFC, PHCC, CTS, RMDY, SCAI, PCS, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", MWHS, NCT, AIB, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AMGN, GPSI, VCI., PHCM, DISH, MRD, ACS, LIT, COX, SNT, SUI, TI., ECL, TWX, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
ATV 1 1/2 up 3/8, JOB 6 7/8 up 1 5/8, GISH 3 1/2 up 3/8, PFC 9 1/4, NEM 18 7/8 up 1, TEN 24 1/8 up 1, MCK 33 up 1, BLM 3 1/2 (S), RPM 14 3/4, PAA 19 3/8, SAMC 6 1/8, MGN 4 1/8, APFC, higher still, since last time here....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: PSFT 15 1/4 up 2, TBP 7 3/4 up 7/8, TMD 8 7/8 up 7/8, MAN 22 3/4 up 1 5/8, NPRO 2 1/4, CNC 29++, MKC 31 1/2, RLC 10 5/8, TEN 23 1/8, DGN, AU, IFMX, HEC, RAD, TMK, HPH, GDC, BUNZ, CCC, HLX, LDW, FNL, TXM, HIV, TXB, TWA, WTT, UFC, TPS, MSN, RTC, CCH, STE, BS, IDC....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....and, WHB is having trouble getting over ots resistance and 200 DMA....note, this list is growing a bit....not a great sign....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) BUNZ 10 1/8, CNC, UFC, HLX, WTT, CDT, TMK, TXM, BGP, LDW, TPS, TWA, NPSI, HCM, UQM, UFC, DGN, RTC, HIV, TXB, DAY, MAN, SSC, OMM, RYO, CAU, MSN, WH....
also note, the stocks in the last two lists have been on those lists for a while, with few new ones....always a good thing to see, in the bigger picture of things....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
still lots of decliners, please read carefully/thoroughly: RNWK -7, UNM -3 3/4, AIG -3 3/4, TEF -3 5/8, CG -3, DLTR -2 7/8, GNET -2 1/2 (sow), DRTE -2 1/2, ASTE -3 1/4 (sow), YHOO -5, ALGX -4, PKS -2, VRSN +5, -2, NWAC -1 7/8, UTX -1 3/4, WFT -1 1/2, SLB -2, BBBY +1 1/2, -1 1/2, DRQ -1 1/2 (S), CPWM -1 1/2, BBBY -1, LC -1, PKY -1, CHD, TERN (S), ALD, XRX -1 (sow), EAT -1, VRLN, SANM +3, -4, +1 1/2, POM -1, UNM +1 1/2, -2, SYKE (S), VRLN, FMX, PKS, EQR, MYG -1, DEX, TRY, MBK, FOX, CG, down/further, since last time here....also, see, MSPG 36, JBL 36+, and the 'DJ. Util. Avg.' 314+, lower....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, and/or are sales
on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
note, most of these stocks, have also remained the same for a while, with few new ones added, another decent sign for us....
Again, we still need to see many stocks break below recent
lows/necklines, and, so far, that has certainly NOT been the case....hence the
recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own,
regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not
break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, AZC, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL), others are already up....
Insur./Financial: (AFG, TW, SVRN, ALL, TMK)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
also, while I am NOT buying them, the "Trans." group/index still showing budding saucer pattern....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, AEG, MCK, CKP, CKR, RPM, RML, MCL, BAL, MSM, LWN, KEG, UNA, ALI, IRID, SIF, to, BLD, BGP, GLB, WHX, WRE, HLX, OMI, CDN, MXG, HPH, TLD, CBR, HA, LTV, HZP, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, MT, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) BYX, CWC, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, RTC, SAMC, SCY, TWA, UQM, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, MWHS, NHC, KSE, RHI., TEN, CPU, CDN, to, BCP, ADM, IHK, NX, STE, CYB, PMD, SEM, TW, NCT, SGE, CDT, TXM, VL, VCR, AVM, IDC, IRSN, ONX, PBY, SHO, LDW, TIE, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, this is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....They only
become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline
towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over
time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns
? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: BIO/A, CCBL, AMGN, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: BTY, TEF, SBC, VCI., GCI, CMCSK, CCU, MFNX, CNXT, WCOM, DISH, CBS, VIA, AFM, CVC, etc.
Financial/Bank: PAYX, ABK, EQ, ONE, JPM, MMC, SEIC, PL, LC, etc.
Energy Services: SDC, BHI, BJS, NBR, WFT, SDC, HAL, SLB, APA, CG, RDC, SGY, etc.
Chemical-relateds: HPC, DEX, ECL, SEE, PCH, ALD, DD, etc.
Retail/Clothing: BBBY, IBI, DG, ANF, SCNYB, FDS, DDS, FMX, LTD, TOM, GPS, JNY, DLTR, etc.
maybe, Aero/Defense ?: LIT, RTN, PROX, GAC, near highs only, (POWI., is already down), and/but, UTX, ROK, iffy again, etc.
other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below....
**** new ones: many more added, AA, ACS, AFFX, BVEW, CHRW, CNXT, EAT, ELUX, GTSG, LIT, MYG, PB, PEB, PKY, PROX, QLGC, SUI, VRLN, TWX, to, ADI., BOL, CHD, CPWM, CVC, HDI., HON, INTC, JNPR, LTD, MEDQ, MRD, NX, POM, PLX, PSIX, PWR, RBAK, RNWK, SANM, SEBL, TSI., WORK, to, ALGX, ESST, GPSI, CCL, TRY, ROI/A, ASD, SFA, SFX, VERT, in recent NL's, and,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, BSYS, CPN, EL, FO, LXK, PERC, PKS, PL, VTEL, VRTY, XLNX, and most "amex WEBS" securities....note, some of these already pulled back off highs, so one wants to Put them, if at all, into rallies opnly, yes ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Publishing", "Aerospace/Defense", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Energies/Oil Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Banking, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Retail, Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: With a plethora of recent examples of "companies" reporting Better-than-predicted earnings, yet their "stocks" are topping and even falling, remember, knowing "the stage a stock is in technically", is still, more important, than knowing any 'fundamentals' (except, maybe, real insider stuff, or a takeover, on occasion)....As taught in my Booklets (re-read them), very, very few "external items" can override the chart patterns that exist, regardless of anyone's real or perceived beliefs, notions, opinions, or fundamentals themselves ....When a stock is primed to rise/fall, there is very little that can prevent that normal staged progression....Generally, an I.G. will rise/fall too much, then correct on/after the earnings are announced....But you already know this and take advantage of this, right ?
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....