1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) interesting, most every Puts QSL recently, has been, at least so far, a 'fobo'....of course, they would have to break even further to negate, so no further opinion on them yet, except to reiterate how often one gets 2 chances to sell/cut losses small-y.... 2) I will also take normal credit for being among the very first few to give out depr. Semi. stocks from recent lows - again, as in March/April, herein, for you.... 3) and don't kid yourself, some of the depr. Brazil stocks are bottoming already - as usual, I will be the first to see it.... 4) and, of course, I was the first/only to 'put' Utilities from their highs, several, with just a few QSL's.... 5) Japan stock index made new 16-yr. low....I still have no formal opinion, since MC and SNE broke a while ago for very small QSL's herein....remember, NO 'links' to our market much (re-read my Booklets)....but be assured, it will bottom before the Media or the 95 % even hint at going less bearish, right ? ....6) note 'fobd's and 'fobo's' in sec. (4) and (5) below....always rough, but, as taught for years, if are only a small % of one's portfolio, can often stick around a bit if desired.... energy, utility, techs, etc.
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) big L.A.T. article recently about how consumers are not rushing to 'upgrade' their computer stuff, hardware nor software, exactly as I predicted, similarly to after late 1990, recall ? the pattern rarely changes....just as, back then, I said 'everyone who wanted a new car, had one'....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) amazingly, been reading comments/predictions from people who said it would rise forever near its top, that - get this - natural gas prices could fall to the 1.50 to 2.00 mcf area by end of this summer ! to which any "PSYCLE sm" knower would laugh....the pattern rarely changes....and, Mon., Consuela Mack (don't get me started), said, "aren't many people saying the Energy pklay is over ?" you know what THAT likely means to stocks prices forward, yes ? ....2) as I first/alone gave some out herein as Puts properly from highs, Mon., CNBC reported apparel companies deciding to 'go back to pitching jeans again - but this may create a glut, since the avg. american already owns 7 pairs of jeans" _ meaning, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v.., they are grasping at straws, as I expected when I predicted the recession we are in....normal at this stage for them....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) two analysts on CNBC, Fri., said, "of the 2 competitors in their field, we love PSFT and hate SEBL here, because their fundamentals are so opposite...." Normal, good, let's fade both, yes ? 2) semi-perma-bear B> Scheaffer, Mon. at close, said, "a turnaround seems farther and farther away...." good, let's fade him again....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1)
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, some over + 100 % again, puts, longs:
bal. puts DJ. Util. Avg. (400 to 325) for Big % Gain....1/2 pos. calls TXN (30- to 35+) for VVQ 80% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. LBRT (8+ to 11+) for 75% G....1/2 pos. calls JWN (17 to 22) for 133% G....1/2 pos. calls AWE (15+ to 19+) for Q 88% G.... 1/2 pos. puts ATVI (40 to 30) for VQ 100% G....
and/but, longs, RKY (48+ to 52+ to 48), DTPI, ATSN, CDE, and, puts, CACI, EDS no, BVF, PLNR ?, WWY ?, CHD ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. AAPL @ 18+, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 33+, 1/2 pos. BS @ 2+, 1/2 pos. CMOS @ 20+, 1/3 pos. DRTE @ 10+, 1/3 pos. EX @ 7++, 1/2 pos. HLTH @ 5.65, 1/2 pos. MACR @ 16+, 1/3 pos. NOVL @ 5-, l,k1/2 pos. NT @ 7++, 1/2 pos. ROG @ 26, 1/3 pos. STKR @ 10+, 1/2 pos. SY @ 15+ ?, 1/2 pos. WCOM @ 13+, 1/2 pos. ZIGO @ 19.1,
1/3 pos. CNET @ 9+, 1/3 pos. CHINA @ 2 1/2, 1/3 pos. CIEN @ 29-, 1/2 pos. CRA @ 29+, 1/3 pos. MSLV @ 7.2, 1/3 pos. SSTI. @ 8+, 1/3 pos. WDC @ 3,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
ABN @ 17+ nah, AEG @ 26+, AVNX @ 7-, CHK @ 6, DIS @ 26+, INFS @ 16, CMNT @ 8.08, 1/4 pos. GLGC @ 17++, 1/2 pos. PRD @ 1, 1/3 pos. TCM @ 14, LNUX @ 2-, PRIA @ 15-, CTC @ 12+, CAR @ 19+, CLRN @ 7+, KTC @ 20+, ABY @ 7+, IDT @ 11+, MXO ?, PSEM @ 12+, SCH @ 14, COMS @ 4 1/2, DSS @ 9+, KFY @ 15-, RCG @ 0.65, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+..."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, IMGN, ATSN, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/3 pos. AVP @ 47- ?, 1/2 pos. BIO/A @ 50-, 1/3 pos. DFXI. @ 49-, 1/2 pos. LOW @ 39+, PHC @ 34-, PPDI. @ 37-, 1/2 pos. UNH @ 66,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. CHRW @ 31, 1/2 pos. DNB @ 28+, GCI. @ 68-, 1/2 pos. LC @ 39+, 1/2 pos. RLRN @ 49+, 1/2 pos. WE @ 23+, 1/2 pos. AGC @ 47, 1/2 pos. ESCM @ 29-, FEIC @ 41, 1/2 pos. PLNR @ 31+, 1/2 pos. ZION @ 59, 1/3 pos. COO @ 50, ICCI. @ 27, 1/2 pos. TJX @ 33++, 1/2 pos. USAI @ 28, ASBC @ 35, COCO @ 51-, 1/2 pos. GTK @ 36-, 1/2 pos. KMP @ 72, and, shorted the NYSE's A/D line, CHG @ 44++, BBT @ 36++, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, EDS @ 65+, HI. @ 68+, PGR @ 135+, FRE @ 69, LHP @ 46-, WWY no,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, CTXS ?, WE, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", TWAV, ADI, JDAS, UCFC, MICC, ATML, HLIT, LU, OTE, TFS, RCL, TSM, JBL, IRF, ET, NITE, INFY, POWI, TWTC, SANM, PWER, STXN, NEWP, PMCS, QGENF, WCOM, GLBL, IMGN, GS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CIN, DPL, RX, BNI, MO, VSEA, FHCC, SERO, BEN, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
plenty more nice winners:
JWN 22 5/8 up 5 5/8 (sos), WFII. 8.07 up 2.52 nice, EXAR 24.1 up 3.7, PSEM 15.5 up 3, CNXT 10 up 2, CNET 10.99 up 1.65, AETH 11.50 up 1.75, NT 8.45 up 1.20, WCOM 14.60 up 1.34, ZIGO 21.08 up 1.28, WDC 3.85 up , HP 33.30 up 2.78, AWE 19.09 up 0.84, MDCC 21.80 up 1.19, MEOH 6.55 up , COMS 21.44 up 1.44, ACE 35.4 up 1.9, TXN 35.95 up 1, KTC 21.49, A. 30.3, BJS 26.65 up 1, HON 37.7, PTEN 18.0, CIEN 32.38, SSTI. 9.80 up 0.72, SATC 9.75 up 0.43, PETD 6.41 up 0.47, GLGC 19.9 up 1.4, MACR 17.60 up 1.43, AAPL 19 1/2 up 1 1/2, CIEN 33.5 up 1.5, MU 42.80 up 1.30,
MSLV 7.98, PTNR 6.05, CMOS 21.28, IDT 12.1, CTC 12.92, KFY 16.05, AEG 28.14 up , DRTE 11.06, higher since last NL here....while, LBRT, AWE, hit/approached their 200 DMA....and, PHTN 38, POWI. 22+, ANDW 22, HLIT, JDAS 24, still higher even....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
QLTI. 20.7, AMCC, SCH, MRD, CSCO 18.68, 19.48, , BJS 25.55, PETD 6.15, PTEN 17.08, WEBM 16, 16.5, ACTL, PRD, CRA 29.75, 31.40, PR 19 up 1, CPC, ZIGO 19.65, DIS 26.27, AETH 10.49, CLRN 7.10, 7.35, HP 31, WDC 3.58, VG....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) LNUX 1.86, 2.50, DIS 27.4 up, AVNX 6.95, 7.30, 7.01, KANA, STTX, ACTL, RCG, BSX, DSS, APW, MXO 5.4, AEG, ALN....and, note, PWER, ANDW, ALGX, OTE, WEBM 15.52, PETD, WEBM, were more 'fobd's....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
all things considered, a decent amount
ATVI. -4, PPDI. -2 1/2, UNH -1 1/2, TJX -1, ZION, AEOS, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
some depressed Telecom/Wireless, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....and some Brokers improving technically....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
Energy-related (all given out herein from/at lows, so far): MEOH, PTNR, PTEN, HP, SATC, BJS, NOI, MRL, PDE, ESV, RDC, CHK,
add, (note removed a bunch) ACE, ALA, APL, AMT ?, NT, GMH, TER, TSM, XRX ?, GMH, NT, OCPI, CATZ, PEET ?, FTE, BS, TRO, ROG, SY, TDY ?, ISSX ?, BEAS, TSU, DISH, EMLX, ATML, MICC, LGTO ?, MACR, NTAP, NUAN ?, NUFO ?, PMCS, PWER, PALM ?, DROOY, AXA, NYFX, ONIS ?, ORTC, OSTE, STKR, AHLS, , to, CIEN, LNUX, A, GLW, WAT, EX, CDO, IDT, TWAV, CHRT, KCS, EMKR, VECO, PWER, CTC, SNDK, GLGC, FORR, GLBL, CNET, TMTR ?, WDC, BKHM ?, PRD, AVNX, VTSS, CDN, DT, HLTH, SANM, ZIGO, SSTI, DCLK, INFS, CMOS, MSLV, WEBM ?, MDCC, TLGD, DIS, CAR, CPC, ROG, COGN, RSH, EPNY, ABY, CRA, SLE, ACTU, CMRC, KEYN no ?, KTC, TRO, SCH, MXO, TCC, CHINA, ABN, LSI, APW, CLRN, CMNT, MRD, TERN, PRIA, BRIO, CNXT, GSLI, SUNW, MPH, MRD, RCG, IBI, LTD, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, GENZ, TALX, GNSS, DFXI, DYII, CPRT, AVP, MME, UNH, CRY, COH, LNR, PHC, LOW, BIO/A, TGP, MAR ?, 'the DJ. Trans. Avg., RLRN, ZION, PLNR, PPDI, ESCM, AGC, ATK, MBI, USAI, LC, STU, UVV, DNB ?, ASBC, SERO, ICCI, FEIC, GCI, TJX, HI. ?, FRE, AEOS, CHTR, COCO, GILD, CL, KM, VAR, RHB, UVV, STI, PGR, MSCC, CHS, KMP, GPT, BBT, SYMC, THQI, ERTS, CHRW, RMD, TGT, SO, BCS, ORI, ITT, CHG, CHD ?, HCA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient -home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Commercial Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, all types of Media, Apparel, Chemical, Tobacco, Food, Retail, maybe Paper ?, and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES