1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) as usual, I was the first/only to have given out many extended Apparel stocks from recent highs down nicely.... 2) and, of course, the only-very-recent articles/Media treatments that possibly, "the semi. chip sector has bottomed", is a sign to take some QL % Gains (as we have herein) after their initial stage 1 rises, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) finally,big recent headlines about cash Coffee commod. making new 30-year lows, to $ 477. a ton - late, as usual, dig ? of interest, they actually wrote, "I see no hope....I just see it going down forever...." Neat, huh, PSYCLE-wise....the 1965 low was actually $ 444. a ton, but don't get me started....did you know, behind Brazil, the 2nd biggest coffee producer is now -get this - Vietnam ? .... 2) a story-come-on from CNBC, Mon., was, "if you own stocks, you can't afford not to know their earnings", which, of course, is ppure misleading, incorrect, B.S., but still proves that nothing changes in the Media....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) an actually decent treatise in 8/4 L.A.T. by T. Petruno, re: how, in order to match past supposed pattern, stocks would have to rise a LOT by year-end, vs. all the Fed rate cuts - of course, he says this late, and everyone knows this already, dig ? of course, he will only go bulish after when/if techs rise a bunch, yes ? I still see current atmosphere similar to mid 1984 or Fall of 1990, or summer 1998, but I don't have an overrated lucky-to-have column in a major newspaper.... 3) did anyone else read how 'ropfits' at PCG and EIX actually rose a TON last Q ? sure, they are not paying their previous bills....don't get me started....but I did at least give them out from lows herein for you....not many others can say that....anyway, they said that PCG had - get this - $ 3.75 Billion in cash now....up from $ 1.60 B. 12/31/00....their "cash and S.T. invmts. will be adequate to maintain operations through and beyond 2001." Last, a planned Calif. $ 12.5 B. 'energy bond' offering due out soon, the largest in U.S. history, remains in jeopardy, by me....proceeds are supposed to be repaid from raised elec. rates in Calif. - good luck....as Calif. falls further towards bankruptcy itself as a partial result....Last, as I surmised herein when I alone called the S.T. top in the energy crisis in Calif., recent L.A.T. article said that avg. temp. in Calif. was 3 degrees lower than expected/normal, helping hold down total elec. usage.... and I therefore predict(ed) that Aug./Sep. should be hotter as a result....so not counting money yet....
4) in the latest dangerously misleading govt. announcement (re-read my booklets), Tue., Media said that, "U.S. industrial output 'productivity' ROSE, surprisingly, the most over the previous years' Q, in a while, the most recent Q...." - but, in reality, 'productivity only 'rose', because of all the cutbacks, expense cutting, and layoffs/firings within corporations, dig ? so, of course, 'output per person' may have risen - but, tons of decent people have been downsized....so, not a VG report, ay ? and, once again, what is 'good' for a company, is not necessarily good for the economy....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) ....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) as if you didn't know, recent L.A.T. proved my feelings that "infrastructure spending' nationwide has fallen, as a % of GDP, the last 10 years, and continues to fall that way.....things like, roads, schools, water/sewer, elec., airports, etc. So one wonders how much more messed up things might get forward.... 2) and epiulogue on Calif. energy crap, shows that, "if elec. rate hikes had been allowed to happen earlier, instead of Gov. Davis messing things up, allowing for energy supply firms to greedily raise too much, later, then consumers would have conserved more, sooner, which would have tempered the crisis, sooner...." an interesting conclusion - only after the fact, as usual....gee, shouldn't the 'exterts' have known this and made this publically known, earlier, as well ? last, as to the rebates for people who cut usage, they mentioned how 'people who already used little elc. get no discounts, and may even get increases forward, in their rates." yup.
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, some over + 100 % again, more longs, more puts:
all calls PSEM (13 to 18++) for Q 175% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CCUR (5 to 12) for 125% Gain....1/2 pos. puts DFXI (50 to 42) for VQ 66% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. LBRT (8- to 12+) for Q 111% G....all calls AWE (15+ to 19+) for VQ 88% G....1/2 pos. stock WDC (3.0 to 3.9) for VVQ 25% G....bal. calls MU (36 to 44) for VQ 88% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. STKR (10+ to 14+) for VVVQ 75% G....
and/but, longs, TCM, EX no, and, puts, ASBC no, SO, GCI. ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. ASYS @ 8-, FIBR @ 7, 1/2 pos. FORR @ 20, KO @ 44, 1/2 pos. NXCD @ 7++, 1/2 pos. NYFX @ 19-, 1/2 pos. TTEC @ 7+, TWTC @ 25,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
ABN @ 17+ nah, ALXN @ 18+, CHK @ 6, DIS @ 26+, INFS @ 16, CMNT @ 8+, 1/3 pos. CHINA @ 2 1/2, 1/2 pos. CRA @ 29+, MSLV @ 7.2, CTC @ 12+, CAR @ 19+, CLRN @ 7+, KTC @ 20+, KANA @ 1.70+, ABY @ 7+, IDT @ 11+, SCH @ 14+, COMS @ 4 1/2, DSS @ 9+, RCG @ 0.65, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+, 1/3 pos. EPNY @ 8+, GMH @ 19, 1/3 pos. KGC @ 0.79, 1/3 pos. LU @ 6+, 1/3 pos. MICC @ 20+, 1/3 pos. NOI. @ 18, 1/3 pos. SY @ 14++, 1/3 pos. TLAB @ 16+, 1/3 pos. AAPL @ 18+, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 33+, 1/2 pos. CMOS @ 20+, 1/3 pos. DRTE @ 10+, 1/2 pos. HLTH @ 5.65, 1/2 pos. MACR @ 16+, 1/3 pos. NOVL @ 5-, NT @ 7++, SATC @ 8++, UTHR @ 11++, 1/2 pos. ZIGO @ 19-..."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ADSK @ 38, 1/3 pos. ICUI. @ 40+, K @ 30+, 1/2 pos. MKL @ 202+, MTX ?, UVV @ ,
1/3 pos. GENZ @ 59+, MSCC @ 71+, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 33++, 1/2 pos. TGP @ 36+,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. CHRW @ 31, 1/2 pos. DNB @ 28+, 1/2 pos. LC @ 40, 1/2 pos. RLRN @ 52+, 1/2 pos. AGC @ 47, FEIC @ 41, 1/2 pos. PLNR @ 31+, 1/2 pos. ZION @ 59, 1/3 pos. COO @ 50, 1/2 pos. TJX @ 35, 1/2 pos. USAI @ 28, ASBC @ 36-, 1/2 pos. KMP @ 72, shorted the NYSE's A/D line, CHG @ 44++, 1/2 pos. CPG no ?, EDS @ 65+, SO @ 23++, HI. @ 68+, PGR @ 135+, FRE @ 69+ ?, LHP @ 46-, 1/3 pos. AVP @ 47-, 1/2 pos. BIO/A @ 50-,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", PROX, PMCS, ISSI, SIVB, CATZ, CGEN, CDO, EMBT, CNET, PEET, ATSN, TSM, LSI, SWS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, LNR, ETM, MRCY, PECS, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
plenty more nice big S.T. winners:
CCUR 12 up 3 1/2 (S), PRD 1.90 up , FIBR 8.15 up 1.25, ASYS 9 up 1.30, NYFX 20.00 up 1.60, TTEC 8.03 up 0.80, CMNT 9.22 up , DRTE 11.95 up , TWTC 26.51 up 1.66, MXO 7.24 up 1, ROG 29.5 up , LU 6.64, GMH 20.25 up , STKR 14.7 (S), PRIA 18.62, KO 44.98 up 0.98, NXCD 7.90 up 0.36, WDC 3.9, higher since last NL here....while, CCRT, LBRT, ALSC, AWE, WDC, INTC, rose to their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
Techs, and, EX 7.05 up 0.50, DSS 9.89 up 0.55, AVNX 8.13, VG, PR, QLTI, SCH, MRD, BJS 25 up 1 1/2, PETD 6.15, PTEN, NT, MACR 16.6, CMNT 8.63, SLE, CIEN, SATC, COMS, CTC 12.43 up, ACE, ZIGO 19, CRA 30-, UTHR 11.55, 12.36, CPC, AMCC, QLTI, HP, CNXT....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) TCM 14.5, 13.1, 13.7, SATC 8.67, LNUX, KANA, STTX, RCG, BSX, APW, TLAB 16.09, VGZ 0.07, MDCC pb, EX ?, ACTL, SSTI, and most Techs must follow-through....also, see, more 'fobd's', among, DTPI, ASML, TRLY, etc.
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
all things considered, a decent amount
MSCC -5 1/2, ADSK -3, GENZ -3, EXPD, BIO/A, PHC, LOW, AVP, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
some depressed Telecom/Wireless, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....and some Brokers improving technically....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
Energy-related (all given out herein from/at lows, so far): MEOH, SATC, BJS, NOI, MRL, PDE, ESV, RDC, CHK, PLUG ?,
added, (note removed a bunch, and, obviously, many are already up somewhat)
KO, CZN, GR, WCG, OIS ?, CMS ?, SFE, TWE, SWC, VCP, AMZN, YHOO, ATSN, CALP, AVNT, ASYS, HGMGY, DITC, EMBT ?, MICC, NXCD, LEXG, PLUG, PROX, RNWK ?, SIVB, FIBR, SPWX, TTEC, TWTC, UEIC, to, SBYN, ACE, APL, NT, TSM, XRX ?, NOIZ, GMH, OCPI, CATZ, SY, TDY ?, BEAS, TSU ?, DISH, ATML, MICC, MACR, NUAN, NUFO ?, PWER, PALM ?, AXA, NYFX, ORTC, AHLS, WAT, EX ?, CDO, IDT, CHRT, KCS, CTC, GLGC, FORR, CNET, TMTR ?, WDC, BKHM, PRD, CDN, DT, HLTH, SANM, ZIGO, SSTI, DCLK, INFS, CMOS, MSLV, MDCC, DIS, CAR, CPC, ROG, COGN, RSH, EPNY, ABY, CRA, SLE, ACTU, CMRC, KEYN no ?, KTC, TRO, SCH, TCC, CHINA, ABN, APW, CLRN, CMNT, MRD, TERN, PRIA, BRIO, MPH, MRD, RCG, IBI, LTD, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
and, among depressed potential covered-option-write candidates with relatively high premiums for S.T. calls, with caveats and disclaimers: ALXN, ZIGO, MSLV, CLRN, MRVC, RDRT, FIBR, SRNA, RIMM, CALP, on 'my' potential list as well, just FYI....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, ACTN, AMSG, CHTR, ADSK, ERTS, ICUI, SRCL, TRBS, RMDY, GENZ, MTX, TALX, GNSS ?, DYII, CPRT, K, COF, TXU, WMI, TRI, MKL, BBY, BJ, MON ?, to, AVP, UNH, CRY, COH, LNR, PHC, LOW, BIO/A, TGP, MAR ?, 'the DJ. Trans. Avg.', RLRN, ZION, PLNR, AGC, MBI, USAI, LC, STU, UVV, DNB ?, ASBC ?, SERO, ICCI, FEIC, GCI. ?, TJX, HI. ?, FRE, AEOS, CHTR, GILD, VAR, RHB, PGR, MSCC, CHS, KMP, SYMC, ERTS, CHRW, RMD, TGT, BCS, ORI, ITT, CHG ?, CHD ?, HCA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES