1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) am I the first/only guy to have also given out the Extended Insurance stocks as puts herein ? (UNM, MMC, EQ, AIG, LC)....neat.... 2) also note, as was intimated here a while ago, the DJ. Trans. Avg. did abort its potential base....so none were bought long.... 3) as predicted here first/only, most Foreign stocks have fallen, S.T., with the Mexico Fund now hitting its 200 DMA, as mentioned.... 4) note, I recently mentioned how everybody on CNBC loves the "Paper" stocks....so, as usual, I added some of them as Puts in sec. (7) below....thanks, CNBC guys, for the timing help....ditto, HWP up here....and, Publishing stocks also still look bearish.... 5) actually, most Truck-related, and Rail-relateds also look semi-bearish....obviously, "Trans." stocks.... 6) cash Sugar commodity looks like possible breakout above 5+ ? and, we "bought" cash Gold, below, in its decent S.T. saucer, as I mentioned recently....but not Silver, which, as i said recently, ran into resistance....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) the CNBC 'sensationalizing reporter gal', Fri., 6th, 8:30 am, forced, "the NASDAQ is the bright light of this day, up 2 points...." Excuse me ? "bright light" ? at just up 2 points, on an index selling at over 2,000 ? You just gotta "create" a story, ay ? ....2) CNBC's Alan Chernoff, 9 am, Fri., sensationalizing, trying to "create" a story, said, "MDW has plummeted, 20 %, from 112 to 85..." Since when is 20 %, "plummeted" ? plus, MWD remains up substantially from its $ 39. low just last fall....wrong again.... 3) have you noticed that CNBC seems to be over-reporting every little move in Internet, and Semiconductor stocks lately ? I wonder how long they will waste viewer time with just these two I.G.'s ....4) CNBC's Scott Cohn, Fri. 9:15 am, speaking of cruise ships, actually said, "they are so big, you wonder how they can float..." I am not kidding....He also said "the cruise industry is increasing their capacity 57 % in the next 3 years", which may help the decline in their Extended stocks, some of which I gave you herein....Then, Bill Griffith interviewed pres. of CCL, at 10:45 am, a put you are in from this NL, but he showed a chart, incorrectly saying, "as you can see, their stock has been on a growth curve in 1999" --- when any grade-school student can see, that, since Jan. '99, its stock has gone sideways-to-down --- and, NO growth has been evident....in fact, a long rolling top, see it ? geez.... 5) WSJ, 8/6, headline, "for net-IPO party, the baloons begin to pop"....Gee, "begins" ? Where have THEY been the last 50 % down ? ....6) O.C. Register, 8/6, headline, "Retail sales up 4.5 %, beating forecasts"....Hmmmm, interesting, since their STOCKS, as I was first/only to predict here for you, are DOWN....So, what good was the headline "fundamental" story ? For the umpteenth time, the 'stocks' differ from 'the companies', right ? Two different things....
5) Bill Griffith grilled the pres. of "RAYS", Fri. 9:40 am, a stock, as you know, which I gave both, herein, as a put at its high, and a buy near its lows.... What bothered me, was that he had this guy on the defensive the whole time, yet RAYS stock has risen from 5+ to 12+....This says a lot for the way the Media treats things/people these days, and is not, IMHO, a good trend....B.G.'s line of questioning did nothing to help, nor teach, viewers, anything of value.... Similarly (and I know this is not an investing thing, but bears mentioning), ESPN has been showing "the greatest 50 athletes of the century", which "should" be a real nice set of programs....But several of my friends have correctly pointed out, that, instead of solely chronicling the excellent "on-the-field" exploits of these fine athletes, ESPN insists, in every single program, on spending at least 1/3 of the time, with the "but, however" type of slant, showing whetever negative items they can find on that athlete, from their personal, off-field lives, even if those things occured after they retired....Even if you are not a big sports fan, this should bother you as well, because it shows, again, how the Media tends to sensationalize things, report things NOT of direct importance nor help germain to the subject or viewer enjoyment, and waste/expend time and resources from a negative view....My question is, why do so ? I mean, when/if a stock has already risen parabolically, they NEVER say, "watch out, viewers, it may be close to a top", near the top, do they ? Yet, they always kick people, and stocks, and companies, when they are down, yes ? As more "parts of our economy" come apart, and growth slows (as I am among the first/only to recently predict) in future years, it should be interesting to see how much more negative and nasty the Media gets....Without giving people things of true value....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) late again: L.A. Times, 8/4, front-poge biz. sec. headline: "Downside prediction sets off E-brokerage stock slide": two "PSYCLE sm" nuances for you: first, gee, guy, weren't these stocks ALREADY down a ton, BEFORE last Tuesday ? So, the "slide" (he even got that wrong, the stocks have/had not "slid", they have "dropped big-time") had already occured before the Media reported it, and, second, mentioning that "online trading will dip this quarter for the first time", once again, we see how the STOCKS fall first, in stage 5 and/or stage 6, BEFORE any "less positive, or bad" news comes out....exactly as I have taught you is the historical progression.... 2) similarly, same issue, headline, "For Internets, the levitation act is over": again, they report the story only AFTER the stocks in mind are already down, dig ? ....3) might recent IPO's of China.net", and "Homestore.net" herald more top signs ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Putnam Growth Opp. Fund M.F. mgr. was on CNBC, Fri. 6 th, 7:44 am, and actually said, "the Drug stocks are currently under a cloud, due to Medicare issues...." Oh, really ? Then how/why did these same companies' stocks general RISE a ton in recent years, ALSO while being "under a cloud of Medicare issues" issues ? NO "links" ! ....2) fund mgr. for Firsthand Funds, on CNBC, Fri. 6 th, 8 am, loves "ZRAN" stock, saying, "DVD players, is an unstoppable trend....they are going to replace every single VCR in the world...." Oh, really ? and, even if so, that stock is certainly NOT supoer-cheap, nor low....he has also liked, CCRD, and GNSS, both down, both having been on my put list a while ago near their highs, as you know.... 3) KWHY-tv's Frank Barbera, Fri., 9:55 am, must be reading my NL, after the fact, as usual, showing charts of FDS, GPS, WAG, also mentioneing NDN, ANF, and suggesting (maybe correctly, though late) HD, as distribution patterns, and a top, among big Retailers....Hey, Frank, if you had just treated me with more respect, and called me even once, as you said you would before you ignored me and instead listened to R. Saxton's slander, I would have been helping you all along with things like this....and you would have been able to have caught dozens of I.G. moves, before they occured, yes ? and you would have helped tons of your viewers more....and people would have more repect for you....shocking....
4) from the WSJ, 8/6, a big article on trader reactions to recent Internet stock drops, had one guy, down -60 % recently, said, "I try not to wory about it....if it takes 20 years, it will eventually go back up....I don't know when." Hmmmm, and/but you won't diversify or use stops, or learn patterns, right ? And, of course, he bought more stock, even into a margin call....'nuff said.... 5) Mon. 9 th, 9 am, CNBC, an analyst came out with a "still-bullish, raising target to $ 130." buy on WCOM, a put of ours, as you know....you should know, as taught in one of my Booklets, that, often, after they miss an obvious top-and-drop on a stock they were wrong on, they will come out with such a comment, in the hopes of getting institutions to look at it again, and maybe provide a trading bounce....not too cricket, ay ? Meanwhile, "the media" reorted that, "WCOM stock is down on news their 5 cent-an-minute lower rate will exist longer"....yeah, right....it has "already fallen" as I was the first/only to have predicted here, because its chart had formed a normal, usual rolling top, period.... 5) PWJ's Ed Kirshner, remains bearish, sees another -10 to -15 % fall in big co. stocks, with I.R.'s rising more, likes SUNW, MSFT, GPS, WMT, and Techs, long-term anyway....and Ralph Bloch (Raymond, James) remains wary, but he has been wary (totally based on A/D line lagging breadth) for many months now....
e) exactly as I was the first/only to predict a while ago herein, the U.S. Unemployment rate, itself, is forming a depressed "PSYCLE sm" stage 1 base.... Over the years, I have been near-perfect in catching moves in the UE rate, and every time I see a top/bottom, everybody gets upset at me, which is a good signal, sentiment-wise, yes ? Everybody else is worried about the economy overheating, wage and price pressures, etc., but, as you know, I see many areas of our economy slowing for sure, already....
f) my subscribers remain more intelligent than most....L.A. Times, headline, 8/4, "High School violence in decline, study finds": exactly as I was the only guy to point out, herein, during the unfortunate-but-rare Columbine incident, while I realize "any" violence is too much, and studies can vary, their four surveys of 45,000 students from 1991 to 1997, showed 25 % drops in such events ....Again, all I am saying, is that the Media still sensationalizes and misleads vs. the historical facts, and, if one looks beyond rare terrible occurances, one sees more of the truth....And, that keeps one from overreacting, or enacting laws that may not be so great, on emotion alone, etc.
g) While certainly feeling empathetic about continuing droughts in the Midwest and mostly Northeast, it is nevertheless interesting, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., that, generally, the country has always tended to slam the So. Calif. area mostly, for its supposed problems with "water/droughts", which may or may not be true.... and yet, here we are with the droughts and problems in the very areas whose people have been trying to find more things to criticize about the So. Calif. area, isn't it ? Hey, no area is perfect....I am just stating, this, in a similar vein, to how people often have a problem seeing tops in the stocks of their OWN companies, for "future stock price prediction purposes" as well, yes ? It is the same PSY-chological dynamic....
h) my "Y2K" meter is now up to 25 out of 100, after I read two more articles I am willing to believe, First, L.A. Times, 8/5, about how, when polled as to their readiness, only 7 % of physicians and hospital workers even returned the surveys given them, regarding their Y2K preparations....Despite verbal assurances from Insurance companies and Medicare people....Several other Health organizations surveyed nationwide have evidently had similar results, i.e., complacency and, which could also be seen as refusal to deal with it ? Hey, I am just reporting what seems to be a truth for you....Obviously, many health-care entities are people-powered, and I am sure the system will hang in, I just found the 'non-caring', interesting.... Are you surprised ? Second, while govt. surveys reported good Y2K readiness for ATM machines, Electricity, Infrastructure, and Airplane travel, govt. surveys, they wanred that many schools, local governments, small hospitals, and small businesses are very inadequate for Y2K....They said most of those entities "have not even taken an inventory of ways Y2K glitches might affect them"....we shall see....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
a bunch more, mostly Put Gains: puts GPS (50 to 38+) for 111% G....1/2 pos. puts BBBY (38+ to 28+) for 111% G....bal. puts AFM (56 to 46+) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. puts BTY (180+ to 152+) for Q 100% G....bal. EQ (70 to 58+) for Q 100% G.... 1/2 pos. puts WORK (15+ to 11+) for VVQ 75% Gain....1/2 pos. puts FLT (45- to 40+) for 55% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. PAA (15+ to 19+) for L.T. 25% G....1/2 pos. puts CMVT (78 to 67+) for Q 90% G....1/2 pos. puts TSM (35 to 28) for VQ 90% G....stock MGN (2+ to 4) for L.T. 66% G.... puts MMC (80 to 70) for 75% G....puts GMH (60- to 51+) for 66% G....1/2 pos. puts FMX (40+ to 33+) for Q 85% G....1/2 pos. puts TEF (50+ to 44+) for VQ 44% G....1/2 pos. puts ABK (58+ to 53+) for Q 44% G....1/2 pos. puts HPC (40 to 34+) for VQ 75% G....
and/but, longs, SVRN, BUNZ, TXM, AGT, BYX, and, puts, CBS, AT, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....and, was INTC a fakeout-breakout 'hook' ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) ATC @ , 1/2 pos. CNS @ 116-, 1/2 pos. FAF @ , pos. FWC @ 12-, IRID @ 6-, 1/2 pos. IDS @ 1 13/16, 1/2 pos. TSC @ 4+, and "cash Gold" at $ 257. or so, close tops below....(note, MIR, JM, were NOT bt. last NL; you should have seen them break),
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ADM @ 14-, ALI. @ 11+, ATV @ 1 1/4, AVM @ 3+, BAL @ 1 13/16, BGO @ 9/16, BS @ 7 1/2, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CKR @ 13+, DAY @ 0.05, GDC @ 2 3/16, GRERF @ 1/8, HEC @ 1 11/16, HNV @ 2 1/4, HPH @ 1 13/16, KRY @ 5/8, MB @ 2 1/4, MSN @ 9/16, PSFT @ 13-, SCY @ 4 1/4, TMK @ 33-, VBAC @ 1 3/16, VL @ 7+, VGZ....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds.... "buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, UVA, TIE, HA, NCT, DHI., JM, AZC, SDC, RDC, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ADBE @ 87+, CHA @ 61, ELUX @ 43-, HLIT @ 83-, KLAC @ 70+, OTRKB @ 56-, LSI. @ , WGR @ 16+,
"Repeats": (note, more here, dig ?) AMGN @ 80, ASD @ 48++, CL @ 50, DD @ 74+, EAT @ 28++, ECL @ 43-, LZ @ 29+, OAT @ 70-, PERC @ 51, PLX @ 19, SII. @ , SLB @ , TOM @ 38+, VCI. @ 38+, WFT @ 39,
note, with recent declines, how this list has shrunk, again....a "PSYCLE sm" in itself...
Note, the "puttables" lists have been growing....You have had plenty of opportunities to have caught all of these "repeats', as most all re-hit suggested puttable prices more than 1-2-3-times recently....
and/but, took, , Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", HLX, TKR, MSM, ASA, NTN, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ARMHY, WCOM, QRSI., LMG/A, BSX, BCE, PCS, PEB, VSH, EMC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.
again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
DGN 17 1/2 up 4 3/4, VBAC 1 3/8 up 1/4, IRID 6 5/8 up 7/8, IO. 8 1/4 up 5/8, ALI. 11 3/4 up 3/4, NEM 20 3/8 up 1 3/8, AU 23 3/8, VL 7 3/4, higher still, since last time here....we also got two more takeovers, DGN, and, MGN (S), for you, cool....and, TDW 34+, PKD 4 5/8, FLC, higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: IFMX 7 1/4 up 1/2, PSFT 13 1/2 up 3/4, GDC 2 3/8 up 1/4, APFC 9 1/8 up 5/8, SLE 22 1/4, WTT 1 3/4, NPRO, KEG, IHK, SHO, IDC, TMD, TMK, MCK, HOC, TBP, MAN, CKR, RLC, HEC, RAD, PFC 8, SGE, CCC, LDW, FNL, HIV, TXB, UFC, TPS, MSN, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) HNV, LDW, UFC, WTT, TMK, IDC, PSFT, SCY, HOC, TPS, NPSI, HCM, HIV, TXB, DAY, MAN, SSC, OMM, RYO, CAU, MSN....this list looks especially miffy, technically....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
lots of nice decliners, for you, please read carefully/thoroughly: SEE -3 (sow), HLIT -6, ACXM -2 1/2, +1, AIG -2 1/4, AFM -2 (S), MMC -2 (S), ELUX -2, CCBL -1 1/2, CHA -2, ITW -1 1/2, TYC -1 3/8, PKS -1 1/8, ECL -1, HPC -1, FMX -1 (sow), DLTR -1 (sow), C. -1, FCX/A, BBBY -1 (sow), EAT -1, PKY, CCL, MYG, DEX -1, VCI. -1 1/4, BTY -1 (sow), NWAC -1, TEF, POM, TRY, LIT -1, MYG -1 1/2, XRX, LEA -1 (sow), OAT -1, VOD (sow), POM, LC -1, CL -1, down/further, since last time here....
**** like last time here: while, MCLD, NX, TV, GMH (S), MMC (S), VOD (sow), TWX (S), OMC, LEA (sow), DLX (sow), ROST, IBI., have approached their 200 DMA, and, DCLK, GPSI. (S), WCOM, NITE, MARG, OSSI. (S), PSIX (S), RATL (S), RNWK (S), VYTL, AMTD, ADCT, JNY, KSU, FRO, MXF, CCU, VIA, HRZ, COX, BOL, the S & P, and the NYSE Index, fell to their 200 DMA, and, AFM, AEOS, BSX, LC, and the DJ. Trans. Avg., fell further, below their 200 DMA....and, BBBY 29 (sow), CNET 29, CSGS 20+, GBLX 32, RAYS, SBUX 21, COF 40, CMA 53, DDS 29-, YUM 37, NKE 48-, PNC 51, SUB 35, XRX 48-, DHR 50, DG 24- (S), LIN 35, BAC, fell still further as well....again, all were specifically given herein near their highs....and, neat, all the Banks I was the first/only to have given out as Puts near their highs a while ago for you, are approaching downside exhaustion....Please try to view the charts of the stocks in this paragraph, to "see" the patterns more, and learn for future times !
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, TSA, IRID, HPH, S., STK, DLP, AMD, ASO, ASA, FAF, ALI., PLC, TKR, ALU, TSC, BDS, IDS, HM, MCK, CKP, CKR, RPM, RML, MCL, BAL, LWN, IHS, SIF, BLD, GLB, WHX, WRE, OMI, LTV, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) CWC, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, SAMC, SCY, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers.... still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, NEON, FWC, NHC, KSE, RHI., CNS, to, ADM, IHK, NX, CYB, PMD, TW, NCT, ORB, SGE, VL, VCR, AVM, IRSN, ONX, SHO, LDW, HLX, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
new: a quick tale of two depressed stocks: I just gotta say something about "DAY" bidding at just 3-4-5 cents, certainly super-risky....yet, they reported earnings, they have real assets, higher gold production, at $ 200. an ounce, and recently restructured....who's to know, in a properly diversified portfolio, but, gosh, its stock just not doing it....and has not....And, NPK, at $ 35-36., a long-time business, has $ 33. a share just in cash alone, no debt, high margins, making money, growing slowly, yet, in turmoil in its mgmt., and, its stock also languishing....are both eventual bargains probably....just more proof, that even real "fundamentals" mean much LESS than "the 95 %" lead people to believe....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list.... They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
obviously, again, some of these have already now fallen, and may be too late to "begin" to buy puts on....did you take the time to VIEW their charts ? if not, I don't know what more I can say to you....will see more, when I view the new chartbook, coming weekend....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: BIO/A, CCBL, AMGN, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: SBC, VCI., GCI, CMCSK, CNXT, etc.
Financial/Bank: PAYX, JPM, SEIC, PL, LC, AXP, etc.
Energy Services: NBR, WFT, SLB, CG, BHI., (fewer, note), etc.
Chemical-relateds: HPC, DEX, ECL, SEE, PCH, ALD, etc.
Retail/Clothing: FDS, LTD, TOM, DLTR, ROST, etc.
maybe, Aero/Defense: LIT, PROX, UTX, GAC, GMH, near highs only,
other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below....note, several "semis" added, I am the first/only to do so here, dig ? theirs are mostly "much shorter-term tops"....but, across the board, they can fall to their 200 DMA's by the Fall....
**** new ones: many more added, ADBE, ANTC, BBRC, BEM, BRR, CHA, EMC, FMC, FDC, HWP, KMB, MEA, PEB, RSC, CMOS, DSCP, EXDS, FOSL, HLIT, KLAC, OTRKB, PCS, PMCS, RSC, RTRSY, SDSK, SJI., SNPS, TRB, TUP, UVN, WGR, XLE, XLNX, to, ACS, AFFX, ADRX, CAKE, CHRW, CNXT, EAT, EFII, EMLX, ERTS, FCX/A, GE, GTSG, HAN, INSS, KWP, LSI., LZ, MCRL, MYG, NT, ORCL, PB, PEB, PKY, PROX, QCOM, ROST, SUI, to, ADI., BOL, CPWM, HDI., HON, JNPR, LTD, MEDQ, POM, PLX, PWR, RBAK, RNWK, SEBL, to, ALGX, ESST, GPSI, CCL, TRY, ASD, SFA, SFX, in recent NL's, and,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, BSYS, CPN, EL, FO, LXK, PERC, PKS, VTEL, VRTY, XLNX, and most "amex WEBS" securities, and, now, most "amex SPDR's" securities as well....note, some of these already pulled back off highs, so one wants to Put them, if at all, into rallies opnly, yes ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Paper", "Publishing", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Energies/Oil Services, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Retail, Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks, as some tops broaden....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given all the good stuff above, no need for a special lesson today....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....