1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) and speaking of Coffee's 30-year low, I recently saw a nice depr. saucer in cash commodity Cocoa chart, from around 9. a ton....projects towards the 11.00 area....rotation, dig ? ....2) hey, having, as usual, been the first to calll a S.T. bottom in Brazil/Argentina, story Wed. said, "Argentina Bonds up nicely, as hopes for more help from IMF grow...." the pattern rarely changes.... 2) might the Energy/Oil service stocks form V.S.T. double-bottoms soon ? some not showing strength expected in stage 5 or 6.... 3) a recent institutional report from Raymond James, cites, what I have been saying recently, that several depr. 'online/E-broker' stocks are prime candidates for mergers or similar, ahead....ignore them at your risk, I say....
4) Multex's David Sterman, whose past L.T.T.R. we are not told, is at least trying to do what I am: find depr. Tech./Internet stocks, whose sales are actually growing, and who are still profitable, and he came up with these, which I will check as well: ALOT, NETB, TMPW, VRSN, TMCS, EBAY, NETE....of course, I gave you NETE long at recent low, and EBAY put at recent top.... 5) also, cash Copper has new intermediate term low, has fallen from 80 cents to 67 cents since May....historically, remember, going WAY back, the 50 area has held, so watching for that, but probably not yet....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) an actually interesting item from Pisani, Thu. am, about how he sees "way fewer stock buybacks from corporations, this year" - true, as I was first/only to illuminate/predict a while ago herein....recent MER study showed exactly what i suggested - that 2/3 of all 'announced' buybacks never fulfill (where are the company's liabilities ? don't get me started), and, obviously, as I predicted at the Tech. tops, companies don't have the bucks, and they are scared as well, yes ? ....2) once again, an inorant, misleading, deceptive, incorrect statement, puffed to make a story where none exists', from CNBC's Bill Griffeth, Fri. 9;23, "small cap stocks have had a GREAT year so far"....then his interviewee shyly said, "uh, actually, they are DOWN for this year, many down 30-40-50 %...." To which B.G. just moved on....shame on him, again....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) the first potentially good consumer note, reported at close Tue., evidently, nationwide 'consumer debt' FELL - that's right, fell - for the first time since late 1997 (just B4 a big rise in stocks in some similar patterns as now, BTW), -$ 1.5 B, when it had been expected to rise + $ 8.0 B....neat.... 2) file this under, 'well, duh...' (predicted herein among first): Multex (too late, and not predicted near top, as I did, of course, as usual) on 8/8, article, titled, "Getting out at the bottom", correctly pointed out, that tons of VC's imnvested near tops in Internet/Techs, and, now, are trying to get out, only after huge drops, yadda, yadda....gee, if they only had read nmy NL back then, ay ? I would have saved them billions....next.... Harry Edelstone, who invests in VC's for Ford, PG, Intel, ACN, EDS, etc. (and who acknowledged many of their investments are down hugely, with no stops, but I digress), wrote, "Once they are invested in, they are stuck...." Gee, another point for liquid stocks, vs. VC partnerships, yes ? he also mentioned, "VC investments take $ away from other corporate needs/uses, like, R & D, mktg., etdc." My sentiments as well....he says current cycle is similar to the 1970's, saying, "Intel has huge losses in over (get this) 500 companies they have invested in." Without any stop-loss provisions or technical analysis or protective or speculative puts, I might add....hey, guys, I have continued to be here, if contacted....next....
3) as to UTHR, 11 to 12.64 to 8.77 to 14. in 2 days, with trading halt in middle, rumor FDA would not approve drug, then did approve drug, just proves the heinous nature of 95 % of all Media output....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) editorial in WSJ 8/6, "as stocks fall, resist the call of the Bears", by Jon Clemens (whose credentials and L.T. past T.R.. we are dangerously not given), wrote, "recently, I have been beseiged by investor e-mails asking about covrered call writing and shorting....this worries me...." He writes, that, as I teach (usually) "That 'extra income from selling calls' comes at a huge price....people are always talking about whatever worked the LAST 12 months, always in hindsight....if younear lows in 1994 and 1996, people asked me the same thing." (get it ?) "such bets can go badly awry....if the stock written rises, one gets called away and loses it, as it rises further often...." (but not in recent past year of two NASDAQ, ay ?)...."but unlike past stockholders who just want extra income and L.T. holdings, today's option writers are mostly tech. stock losers who can't admit their mistakes and take losses higher, etc." (another "PSYCLE sm" tenet), " and with option premiums at a historic low" (as I suggested herein recently, BTW), "this is a kind of cop-out." as you know, this is correct, as I have been teaching for decades....good job, Mr. C....he writes, "either the stock should be held or not - if you shouldn't own it, then sell the stock, not the calls...." Still a semi-debatable comment, but worth mentioning these days....He also pointed out that, through the Tech. decline, investors have continued to put over $ 100 B. net, into growth M. funds (which seems real low to ME< but I digress),....but then, as usual, he ruined the rest of his article by not concluding anything or teaching ny patterns with regard to shorting by investors figurews, etc.
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) obviously, this week, I laughed as the Northeast began to have 'energy/elec./power' problems due to a heat wave....gee, all the smarmy people who slammed Calif. for months, are now possibly getting a taste of it....what oges around, comes around, ay ? I of course wish them well, but, as I have been teaching for decades, it's always something, somewhere, and again proves my "PSYCLE sm" concept of I.G. rotation, yes ? That's why I try to be nice to everyone worthy, all the time....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, some over + 100 % again, more longs, more puts:
1/2 pos. puts PLNR (31 to 26) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts ICCI (27+ to 23+) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. stock PRD (1.01 to 1.88) for VQ 75% G....
and/but, longs, CLRN, SCH, ZIGO, TWTC, NOI, SATC, 1/2 pos. CRA ?, SY ?, MACR ?, 2nd pos. KANA, COGN ?, and, puts, 1/2 pos. KMP ?, COO, CPG, ASBC no, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. AMZN @ 10+ ?, 1/2 pos. BEAS @ 19+, 1/2 pos. NOIZ @ 4, 1/2 pos. QQQ @ 40, 1/2 pos. SFE @ 3 1/2,
1/2 pos. ASYS @ 8-, FIBR @ 7, 1/2 pos. FORR @ 20, KO @ 44, 1/2 pos. NXCD @ 7++, 1/2 pos. NYFX @ 19-, 1/2 pos. TTEC @ 7+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
BJS @ 21+, ALXN @ 18-, CHK @ 5++, DIS @ 26+, INFS @ 16, CMNT @ 8+, 1/3 pos. CHINA @ 2 1/2, 1/2 pos. CRA @ 27 ?, MSLV @ 7.1, CTC @ 12+, CAR @ 19+, CLRN no ?, CIEN 29, KTC @ 20+, ABY @ 7+, IDT @ 11+, COMS @ 4 1/2, DSS @ 9+, RCG @ 0.65, VGZ @ 0.09, VRA @ 1+, 1/3 pos. EPNY @ 8+, 1/3 pos. KGC @ 0.79, 1/3 pos. LU @ 6+, 1/3 pos. MICC @ 18++ ?, 1/3 pos. SY no ?, 1/3 pos. TLAB @ 14+, 1/3 pos. AAPL @ 18+, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 33+, 1/2 pos. CMOS @ 20+, 1/2 pos. HLTH @ 5.65, WCOM @ 13+, 1/3 pos. NOVL @ 5-, NT @ 7+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, SRNA, AVNT, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. BBY @ 67++, 1/2 pos. COF @ 66+, 1/2 pos. CPRT @ 28+, 1/3 pos. MON @ 37, 1/2 pos. SRCL @ 50, 1/3 pos. TRBS @ 39+ ?
ADSK @ 38, 1/3 pos. ICUI. @ 40+, K @ 30+, 1/2 pos. MKL @ 202+, MTX ?, UVV @ 39++, 1/3 pos. GENZ @ 59+, MSCC @ 71+, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 33++, 1/2 pos. TGP @ 36+,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. CHRW @ 31, 1/2 pos. DNB @ 28+, 1/2 pos. LC @ 40, 1/2 pos. RLRN @ 52+, 1/2 pos. AGC @ 47, FEIC @ 41, 1/2 pos. ZION @ 59, CBT @ 38+, 1/2 pos. TJX @ 35, 1/2 pos. USAI @ 28, ASBC @ 36-, shorted the NYSE's A/D line, CHG @ 44++, EDS @ 65+, HI. @ 68+, PGR @ 135+, FRE @ 69+, LHP @ 46-, 1/3 pos. AVP @ 47-, 1/2 pos. BIO/A @ 50-,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, GNSS , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", , , as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, GNSS, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
plenty more nice big S.T. winners:
NOIZ 4.20 up 0.25, INFS 18+ up 2, NXCD 8.4 up 0.9, EX 7.60 up 0.55, ABY 7.84 up 0.70, AEG 29.6 up 2, BEAS 20.53 up 1.33, HLTH 6.10, PETD 6.40 up, SFE 3.79 up 0.29, higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
Techs, and, EX, DSS 10.21 up, AVNX 7.85, VG, FIBR 6.72, PRD 1.21, PR, MRD, BJS 21+, 22++, PTEN, NT 7.23 (B), CMNT, SLE, CIEN 30, 31 5/8, 29.1 (B), BEAS 18.84 (B), COMS, CTC, ACE 35.65 up 1.88, MSLV 7.1 (B), A. 27.6 dn, ZIGO, SFE, CPC, AMCC, QLTI, HP, CNXT, FON 21++ (bopb)....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) TWTC 25-, 26++, 25- (S), TLAB 14.4 (B), ALXN 17.85, LNUX, KANA 1.18 oy, STTX, RCG, BSX, APW, VGZ, MDCC, EX, ACTL, SSTI, CRA 27, MACR 15++, COGN 15.69 dn 1, WCOM 13.2 (B), MICC 18++, CHK 5.83, and most all Techs must still follow-through....and UTHR 12.45 up first, then 8.78, got whacked on news, a real rare shocker.... helped by diversification, elsewhere, and puts, of course, as usual....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
all things considered, a decent amount
MSCC -7 1/2, GENZ -6, BBY -9, FEIC -4, MON -3 1/2, CPRT -3, SRCL -3 1/2, USAI. -2, EDS -2 1/2, PLNR -2 1/2, ICCI. -2 1/2, EDS -1 1/2, ADSK -1 1/2, FRE -1, UVV -1 1/4, IUCI. -1, PHC -1, LOW -1, MKL -7 1/2, lower, some further, since last NL here....while, ICCI, falling to/towards its 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
some depressed Telecom/Wireless, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., Ind. Groups....and, on bigger pullbacks, Apparel, Retail, etc., but probably not Airlines, nor big Golds, yet....and some Brokers improving technically....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
Energy-related (all given out herein from/at lows, so far): MEOH, BJS, MRL, PDE, ESV, RDC, CHK, PLUG ?,
added, (note removed a bunch, and, obviously, many are already up somewhat)
QQQ, BEAS, BMC, KO, CZN, GR, WCG, OIS ?, CMS ?, SFE, TWE, SWC, VCP, AMZN, YHOO, ATSN, CALP, ASYS, HGMGY, DITC, EMBT ?, MICC, NXCD, LEXG, PLUG, PROX, RNWK ?, SIVB, FIBR, TTEC, TWTC, UEIC, to, SBYN, ACE, APL, NT, TSM, XRX ?, NOIZ, GMH, OCPI, CATZ, SY, TDY ?, BEAS, TSU ?, DISH, ATML, MICC, MACR, NUAN, NUFO ?, PWER, PALM ?, AXA, NYFX, ORTC, AHLS, WAT, EX, CDO, IDT, CHRT, KCS, CTC, GLGC, FORR, CNET, TMTR ?, WDC, BKHM, PRD, CDN, DT, HLTH, SANM, SSTI, DCLK, INFS, CMOS, MSLV, MDCC, DIS, CAR, CPC, CIEN, ROG, COGN, RSH, EPNY, ABY, CRA, SLE, ACTU, CMRC, KEYN no ?, KTC, TRO, SCH, TCC, CHINA, ABN, APW, CMNT, MRD, TERN, PRIA, BRIO, MPH, MRD, RCG, IBI, LTD, as EVB's or bases....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
and, among depressed potential covered-option-write candidates with relatively high premiums for S.T. calls, with caveats and disclaimers: ALXN, ZIGO, MSLV, CLRN, MRVC, RDRT, FIBR, RIMM, CALP, VRTY, on 'my' potential list as well, just FYI....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, ACTN, AMSG, CHTR, ADSK, ERTS, ICUI, SRCL, TRBS, RMDY, GENZ, MTX, TALX, DYII, CPRT, K, COF, TXU, WMI, TRI, MKL, BBY, BJ, MON ?, to, AVP, UNH, CRY, COH, LNR, PHC, LOW, BIO/A, TGP, MAR ?, 'the DJ. Trans. Avg.', RLRN, ZION, PLNR, AGC, MBI, USAI, LC, STU, UVV, DNB, ASBC ?, SERO, ICCI, FEIC, TJX, HI. ?, FRE, AEOS, CHTR, GILD, VAR, RHB, PGR, MSCC, CHS, KMP no ? , SYMC, ERTS, CHRW, RMD, TGT, BCS, ORI, ITT, CHG ?, CHD ?, HCA, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES