1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for
today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) obviously, QSL's, among Oil Svc. stocks, even though two more decent analysts came out warning of excess, including Charlie Maxwell, the Dean of Energy stuff....but I was wrong on that one I.G. ....2) decent puts predictions on the "Aero/Def." stocks, herein, ay ? (UTX, GMH, ROK, LEA, LIT) did you catch any ? ....3) CNBC's Darby Mullaney, Wed., 11:15 am, asked, "Retail companies are reporting higher-than-expected earnings growth....then how come their stocks are down ?" ....Well, 'miss refuses-to-learn-patterns' reporter, my subscribers know why....I bet CNBC tells their reporters PURPOSELY, NOT to learn about technical analysis, but just create stories, sensationalize somewhat, for ratings, appear pleasant, occasionally helping, but most times, not.... 4) "Market-Vane's" 'bullish consensus' readings for Gold recently, was just 10 % bullish, the lowest (most bearish, get it ?) in over 20 years....hence the S.T. bottom I gave you, in cash Gold ....5) the T-bond rate got to 6.26 % as expected, but not above, and was/is probably a scalp trade from 113+, with close stop below....
6) in a potentially stunning "PSYCLE sm" example, which upsets many emotional foreigners needlessly, L.A. Times, 8/6, headline, "For Sale: Japan Property, Cheap", reported, in an opposite manner from the 1988-1990 period, when many Japan investors bought U.S. real estate near its top (a long, predicted story for another time, of their hubris, and emotion-driven excessive building/projects, etc., don't get me started), then had ours, and Japan's R.E., get whacked --- it seems "Non-Japan-Foreigners" (mostly U.S. institutions), have been buying depressed Japan R.E. properties, and bad loans, with purchases up + 150 % more than in fiscal 1998, so far this year....Remember, "the experts" all gave front-page articles last Spring 1998, about "the end of Japan forever" (which was, as I said herein at that time, when I gave out many Asian stocks as Buys near their lows, ridiculous...) ? Well, a bunch of savvy U.S. buyers scooped them up cheap....good for them....More proof why the U.S. has generally ruled the investment and business world for so long....The ability to learn/see historical patterns, adapt, and buy low, at times....Remember, Foreign investors have historically tended to buy, and sell, U.S. items, late in their cycles....They also bought biggest in 1987 before the crash, etc. More decent useable contrary signals....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Mon., 9 th, CNBC's Bob Pisani., 11 am, finally showed drops in Retailers, like, KSS, BBY, TJX, from my list given you at their tops....late, as usual, ay ? Our having been the first/only to have given out the Extended Retails, it is now too late to Put most oif them here, as many approach their 200 DMA's.... 2) CNBC people are now talking about a "bottom" on the Internet stocks....Gang, remember, the "bottom", was much, much lower than current levels....which was actually not all that long ago....But, of course, the avg. person's memory doesn't go back more than, say, 6 months ago, right ? PSY-chologically, they don't wanna hear it....their antsy, impatient, immature, refusing-to-learn-patterns minds, just want another shot at what they already should have caught long, or missed short ....3) finally, late as usual, CNBC's L. O'Brien highlighted the "Transportation stocks", Airlines, Trucking, semi-negatively, Wed., 9:45 am, only AFTER they are/were ALREADY down, dig ? the pattern never changes....I gave you these I.G.'s as puts near their highs herein, early 1999 (and, as longs from their 1998 lows herein)....check out chart of "JBHT", it may set up at some point ahead.... 4) similarly, contrarily, CNBC has been over-reporting bullishness in the Aluminum stocks....again, only after the horse is out of the barn....while I did not give any predictions herein about these, either way, all along, these stocks are ALREADY up about + 100 % in a year....so, again, they NEVER give them out near their lows, as we do....So of what use/value is the Media's message at this point ? (except for my approach to it) ....5) Wed. 11 th, CNBC's Joe Kernan highlighted a 'Temp. Employ.' stock, Olsten, as a halted-potential-takeover (but late, of course, as usual)....I am proud of having been the ONLY guy around to have specifically given out this I.G.'s stocks (OLS, MAN, JOB, MPS, CWC, CFS, CDI, PGA, ASF, etc.) near their "PSYCLE sm" lows herein for you to take advantage of, because we all remember when these were at their highs, and all of Wall St. was in love with them....VIEW their past-year-or-two charts, to learm the pattern further....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) noticing "AHP" down from 70 to 41 quickly, reminded me how so many of "the 95 %" say, "but, Jim, it's such a great company fundamentally, Drug stocks have no risk, they are so diversified product-wise, etc." O.K., but the "company" is not the "stock", right ? ....2) just FYI, CNBC, Wed. 11 th, 9:30 am, reported that, so far in 1999, there have been 170 Internet IPO's....vs. 46 for all of last year ! And, that the arith. avg. price change, for Internet IPO's, after their first day of trading, has been Down -31.7 %....but, you already knew that, right ? ....3) In DTN/Signal's latest monthly bulletin, Leo Fasciocco's column was, "How to say goodby to yesterday's winners, and hello to new leaders", showed exactly why my "PSYCLE sm" does so well often going opposite "the 95 %" and "the experts"....He went to a recent big investing conference, in which all that "the 95%" wanted to know, was, when to continue to buy Internet stocks, even though they were already in downtrends....And, in a perfect "PSYCLE sm" nuance, their over-concentration on the Internet sector, blinded them from seeing the emergence S.T., of the Semiconductor stocks, dig ? Because they do not view ALL sectors, every week....But, then, as usual, he ruined the article's potentially helpful message, by then saying how attractive the Semis now looked, glowing about TXN around $ 150, VTSS 70, TQNT 50-, PMCS 83, as "accelerating earnings growth" (which, BTW, one only hears in late stage 3, yes ?), all of which are already potential "high-relative-strength" tops, themselves ! amazing, huh....LESSON: buy TOMORROW's leaders, not yesterday's....Buy low, not high....well, duh....a small number of recent years' stocks have been rare historical exceptions....
4) I did read a worthy 'fundamental' item, which said that there might me a final "rush of corporate mergers to beat the new accounting/tax rules that will take effect in the second half of 2000." Without giving you details here, this IS a real phenomenon....As you know, we have received a bunch of these, just by buying low, in recent years, but do NOT buy "just because of a merger rumor", etc. Know any others, still with stage 1 stock chart patterns ? Let us know.... 5) just FYI (thanks, subscriber B.P.), Kiplinger letter did say, in addition to items I listed here last time, that "health care/insur./plans" costs are estimated to rise + 15 % in the coming year, more evidence of at least slight inflation.... 6) last, just FYI, evidently, while 1 in 63 IRS tax returns were audtied in 1996, only 1 in 78, in 1997, only 1 in 101, in 1998, and, estimate of only 1 in 125 returns, in 1999, will be, as such percentages continue to fall, especially for incomes over $ 100 K....Of course, the raw number of returns over $ 100 K has grown a lot in recent years, + 56 % in the last 5 years alone, dig ? So, everything is relative....perspective, dear reader.... 7) CNBC, Thu. 10 am, highlighted K-Mart, asking why its stock is down, even as their earnings have risen a bunch....so what else is new....Remember, I recommended KM around $ 6+, in my NL, a while ago, when all the "expert analysts" hated it, yes ? Check its' chart base back then....but recently, of course, as a "Retail" stock, it expectedly got brought down along with all the others in that I.G., in rotation, those experts were also wrong in loving, near their recent tops, yes ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) another great example to learn from: Tues., Pacific Sunwear, which I was the first/only to give out as a Put herein for you at its highs, announced much-higher-than-expected earnings, beat the street, yet its STOCK fell, to $ 21. (we just missed it recently)....Even as three B-firms reiterated their Buys from $ 25+....even as 6 insiders sold up there, and it had a 3-for-2 split....its 200 DMA is around $ 20., and is in the "Retail" I.G. as you know was a S.T. toppy group recently, which is probably more of a "reason" for its pullback....re-read my "Scenarios" booklet.... 2) Mon. 9 th, CNBC mentioned recent study by the SEC, saying many discount brokerage firms have deceptive advertising, improper margin loans, and failure to keep good records....Gee, why are we not surprised ? ....3) according to Frank Barbera, KWHY-tv, Tues. 10 th, 9:55 am, "gold" and "gold stocks" are "overbought" already, and at "dangerous" levels, i.e., he does NOT buy this rise, did not, and has not....interesting, since YOU have been aboe to glean nice % Gains, three times now, in recent months, long, and one nice Gain on puts, in Gold stocks, yes ? he remains out....but, of course, he is paid for a daily TV show, and we have not.... 4) JIm Dines was on KWHY-tv, Tue. 10 th, after close....missed the beginning, rats....He likes the Semis, Internets, Oil Services, here, a lot....favorites besides big names, were, RNWK, GNET, BVSN, PSIX, Copper Mt., AMZN, alomst all either currently, or previously at their tops, Puttables, herein....He did not acknowledge not selling any near their highs, before recent 50 % drops...he said, "land mines are blowing up all around us, we're in atrade war worldwide...." Also been bullish on the US dollar, even with recent drops which I predicted herein....likes Gold (as do I)....but disliked "CKR" (a stock I like, as you know), because, "with Retailers, things can blow up on you...." Excuse me ? And that cannot happen with the Internets ? But also likes SOC, actually saying, "it is forming a base"....
5) CNBC had a guy on from the "GF Internet Index Fund", Tues. 10 th, 12;20 pm, but, gee, since inception 12/15/98, the Fund is Down -30. %....so, I say, why have him on at all ? Thier biggest holdings (which, BTW, they NEVER change, because it is an "index" fund, get it ? which could hurt buyers, but don't get me started) are: SNE, EMC, NOK/A, CSCO, RTRSY, SCH, FDX, WMT....Several are on my Puttables list....Quote: "we want stability to be a hallmark of this fund..." Hmmmm, since when is down -30. % in 8 months, "stability" ? ....6) Kiplinger's Aug. '99 issues' (written at the July top, mind you), "six stocks for the telecomunications boom": SBC, T., TLAB, WCII, VOD, and, Primus Telecom....saying, "potential for huge profits"....Well, maybe for the 'companies', but certainly not for their 'stocks', from their recent highs....These are definitely not exactly undiscovered stocks, ay ? and are potential puts at some point....I could never understand why anyone would desire to pay for such "fundamental" output, late....but then, they are puzzlingly "famous/connected/overrated/backed", and I am not.... 7) Wed., 11 th, Huntingdon/Bearings, finally lowered "HB" stock to a "hold" from a "buy"....at today's low....already down around $ 30., from its $ 64. high....even Joe Kernan said, "it would have been nice if they had done this earlier."
8) CNBC, Wed., 11:40 am, had guy on from Blackrock Funds, who, specifically, has loved 'CPWM', and "cruise line", and "oil service" stocks, three of our puttables groups as you know, up here, yet disliked 'PIR' at $ 6, which I have given out twice near lows, in recent years, but he is correct in that it is not yet ready again.... 9) Wed., CNBC 12:50 pm, Victor Sperandeo, a decent guy, said something sage: "trading is not an exercise in I.Q., but more, of emotional discipline." ....10) CNBC had port. mgr. gal of Nations Value Fund on, Thu. 9:28 am, loving Apple Comp. up here, saying all the normal, usual, 'after the rise, late stage 3 -type cliches', like, "new products, hitting on all cylinders, doing everything right, controlling expenses, target $ 70", etc. Only $ 70 ? That's not much higher than here anyway....It was like she was reading it when she spoke, no personality, no soul....anyway, we find all the fundamentalists who hated APPL at $ 15 when we added it, love it now, ay ? You know what that means....
e) just for the record, while I did first say/predict, that many Internet stocks and companies would fade from the scene, and that interest and action would wane this summer....But, I never even remotely said that "the Internet itself" would disappear....That would be ridiculous....In fact, as an information and sales medium, it will continue to grow....but the shakeout and slowing was/is quite normal at this "PSYCLE sm stage"....that is all....No emotion, No 'scenario'.
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
more Gains for you: bal. calls DGN (10+ to 17+) for 225% G....calls AU (19+ to 26+) for Q 200% G....bal. puts BBBY (38+ to 26+) for 125% G....puts POM (30++ to 27) for VQ 150% G....bal. puts VOD (211 to 190-) for 100 % G....puts AIG (98- to 85) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. calls NEM (17+ to 21+) for Q 75% G....bal. puts GMH (60+ to 51-) for Q 75% G....puts LEA (52+ to 42-) for Q 111% G....puts UTX (70 to 62-) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts CPWM (48- to 39++) for Q 85% G....bal. puts WORK (15+ to 11+) for VQ 85% G....puts ONE (60+ to 51+) for Q 85% G....puts FOX (28- to 22) for 85% G....1/2 pos. puts SEE (66- to 56+) for VQ 85% G....css BRK/A (7800 to 6350) for Q 35% G....bal. ABK (58+ to 53+) for Q 44% G....
and/but, longs, IRID, MCK, ALU, BLD, and, puts, SLB, WFT, WGR, BHI. (Oil Svcs.), bal. TSM (35 to 28 to 35+), HLIT, CHA, ELUX, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio.
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) ATC @ , BDS @ 3 1/2, 1/2 pos. CNS @ 15++, 1/2 pos. CPQ @ 22+, ESOL @ 7/8, FAF @ 15+, 1/2 pos. MCL @ 8+, 1/2 pos. NPK @ 35++, 1/2 pos. Sears ("S") @ 39++, "the Sept. T-bond at 113+", close stop below....note, some "1/2 pos." buys, as initial "test the water" positions....
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ADM @ 14-, ALI. @ 11-, ATV @ 1 1/4, AVM @ 3+, BAL @ 1 7/8, BGO @ 9/16, BS @ 7 5/8, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CDE @ 4 3/16, CKR @ 13+, CNS @ 16- DAY @ 0.05, FWC @ 12-, GRERF @ 1/8, HEC @ 1 3/4, HNV @ 2 3/16, HPH @ 1 13/16, HZP @ 5-, KRY @ 5/8, LDW @ 6 1/8, MB @ 2 1/4, MSN @ 9/16, PMC @ 8 3/16, PSFT @ 13-, SCY @ 4 1/4, SLE @ 21+, VGZ, TMK @ 32+, WTT @ 1 3/4....a real mish-mosh....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
However, there are Some "Optionables" as "over $ 10. stocks" here....
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, GNRL, ASO, IRSN, ASO, DLP, AMD, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ACTU @ 35-, ANTC @ 41++, DSCP @ 34, ERTS @ 58++, JCI. @ 70+, UVN @ 68,
"Repeats": (note, more here, dig ?) ADBE @ 88-, AMGN @ 80-, ASD @ 48++, CL @ 49+, CLS @ 46, ECL @ 43-, FCX/A @ 16++, KLAC @ 70+, LZ @ 29+, OAT @ 70-, OTRKB @ 56-, PERC @ 51, PLX @ 19++, SII. @ 50-, TOM @ 38-, VCI. @ 38+,
and/but, took, CMOS, INSS, XLNX, XLE, PMCS, BVSN, LSI., Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", EXX/A, STK, CKP, NWK, HM, FC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ERTS, RTN/A, HON, FMC, PSUN, BEM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
actually, some nice movers, even into a "correction": TSC 5 5/8 up 1 1/2, CDE 5 up 7/8, KEG 4 1/2 up 7/8, BDS 3 7/8 up 1/2, MAN 26 1/4 up 3 7/8, AU 27 1/4 up 3 7/8 (S), SGE 7 1/4 up 1 1/8, FWC 12 3/4 up 1, SAMC 6 1/2 up 1/2, FAF 16 1/4 up 1, CNS 16 1/2 up 3/4, NEM 22 up 1 5/8 (sos), NPK 36 1/2 up 1, DGN 17 3/4 (S), VL 8 1/8, ALI. 11 7/8, TSK 17 1/2, ADM 14 1/2, VBAC, cash Gold 260+ up 3+, and, the CRB index nearing 199, higher still, since last time here.... also, see, TAROF hit 13., view its previous "PSYCLE sm" base I gave you near lows herein....ditto, DBRSY hit 27....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: PMD 4 1/4, 5, 4 5/8, PLC 3 5/8 up 3/8, LDW 6 5/8 up 5/8, IDC 4 1/2, 5 1/2, 5, BS 8 up 1/2, NPSI. 15 1/8 up 1, S. 40 3/4 up 1 1/4, IO. 8 1/4, 7 1/2, MTSI. 15 1/2 up 1 1/8, NPRO 2 1/2, BAL 2, HEC 2, IFMX, FWC, APFC, WTT, SHO, TMD, HOC, TBP, RLC, IHK, RAD, PFC, CCC, FNL, HIV, TXB, UFC, TPS, MSN, ALI., CCH, OJ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) ALI. 10 3/4, CKR, HNV, LDW, UFC, WTT, TMK, IDC, PSFT, SCY, HOC, TPS, IDS, AVM, HCM, HIV, TXB, DAY, SSC, OMM, RYO, CAU, MSN....this list looks especially miffy, technically....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
lots more nice decliners, for you, please read carefully/thoroughly: RBAK -8 1/2, BTY -7, RSC -4 1/2, AT -4 1/4, PMCS -3 1/2, KLAC -3 3/8, HLIT -3, +2, -2 1/2, +2, SEE -2 (S), VOD -3 (S), UTX -2 (S), MYG -2 (sow), OAT -2, XRX -2, DD -2, LC -1 7/8, ADBE -2 1/4, LEA -1 3/4 (S), JCI. -1 3/4, BBBY -1 1/2 (S), GMH -1 1/2 (S), CPWM -1 1/2, CL -1 1/4, FOX -1 1/2 (S), CCBL -1, EAT -1 1/2, ECL -1 3/4, PCH -1, LIT -1, UVN -1, ONE -1, FLT -1, POM -1 (S), XLNX -1, ALD -1 3/4, DLTR, ACXM, CLS, DEX -1, ROK -1, C., FMX, LZ, SUI., AIG +3, -3 1/2 (S), PKY, TRY, IIN, down/further, since last time here....also see, LVCI. fell -50 %, on Tues.
**** LOOK: for the last time here: while, MCLD, NX, TV, GMH (S), MMC (S), VOD (sow), TWX (S), OMC, LEA (sow), DLX (sow), ROST (S), IBI., NTAP, UTX (sow), PKS, have approached their 200 DMA, and, DCLK, GPSI. (S), WCOM, NITE, MARG, OSSI. (S), PSIX (S), RATL (S), RNWK (S), VYTL, AMTD, ADCT, JNY, KSU, FRO, MXF, CCU, VIA, HRZ, COX, BOL, the S & P, and the NYSE Index, all fell to their 200 DMA, and, AFM, AEOS, BSX, LC, and the DJ. Trans. Avg., fell further, below their 200 DMA....and, CLX, BBBY 26 (S), CNET 29, CSGS 20+, GBLX 32, RAYS, SBUX 21, PSUN 21, COF 40, CMA 53, DDS 29-, YUM 37, NKE 48-, PNC 51, SUB 35, XRX 48-, DHR 50, DG 24- (S), LIN 33+, BAC, HLTH 30, all fell still further as well....Again, all were specifically given herein near their highs....Please try to view the charts of the stocks in this paragraph, to "see" the patterns more, and learn for future times !
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, HRC, FC, ESOL, TSA, HPH, S., STK, FAF, ALI., PLC, TKR, TSC, BDS, IDS, HM, MCK, CKP, CKR, RPM, MCL, BAL, LWN, IHS, BLD, GLB, WHX, WRE, OMI, LTV, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats" (alphabetically by symbol) (NOTE: added "still-close" stocks, from
recent "Value Line" list, and removed others) CWC, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, SAMC, SCY, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers.... still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, NEON, FWC, NHC, KSE, RHI., CNS, to, ADM, IHK, NX, CYB, FNL, PMD, TW, NCT, ORB, SGE, VL, VCR, AVM, ONX, SHO, LDW, HLX, TMK, HEC, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list.... They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
obviously, again, some of these have already now fallen, and may be too late to "begin" to buy puts on....did you take the time to VIEW their charts ? if not, I don't know what more I can say to you....will see more, when I view the new chartbook, coming weekend....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: BIO/A, CCBL, AMGN, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: SBC, VCI., GCI., CNXT, etc.
Financial/Bank: PAYX, JPM, SEIC, PL, AXP, etc.
Chemical-relateds: ECL, SEE, PCH, ALD, etc.
Retail/Clothing: FDS, LTD, TOM, etc.
maybe, Aero/Defense: LIT, PROX, UTX, GAC, near highs only,
other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below....note, several "semis" added, I am the first/only to do so here, dig ? theirs are mostly "much shorter-term tops"....but, across the board, they can fall to their 200 DMA's by the Fall....
**** new ones: many more added, ACTU, ADBE, ANTC, BBRC, BEM, BRR, CHA, EMC, FMC, FDC, HWP, KMB, MEA, PEB, DSCP, EXDS, FOSL, HLIT, KLAC, MCHP, OTRKB, PCS, RSC, RTRSY, SNDK, SJI., SNPS, TRB, TUP, UVN, to, ACS, ADRX, CAKE, CHRW, CNXT, EAT, EFII, EMLX, ERTS, FCX/A, GE, GTSG, HAN, KWP, LZ, MCRL, NT, ORCL, PB, PEB, PKY, PROX, QCOM, SUI, to, ADI., HON, JNPR, MEDQ, RBAK, RNWK, ROIA, SEBL, to, ALGX, ESST, GPSI, CCL, TRY, ASD, SFA, SFX, in recent NL's, and,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, LXK, PERC, PKS, VTEL, VRTY, and most "amex WEBS" securities, and, now, most "amex SPDR's" securities as well.... note, some of these already pulled back off highs, so one wants to Put them, if at all, into rallies, only, yes ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Paper", "Publishing", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given all the good stuff above, no need for a special lesson today....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....