1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) note, how, as "PSYCLE sm" stage 6 presaged, the Internets, and Online Broker stocks, stopped right around their 200 DMA's and bounced....neat....check charts of, SCH, EGRP, AMTD, JBOH, NITE, etc., just to see/learn the usual sequentially staged pattern.... 2) I gotta mention something about the "Aluminum" stocks, being overreported on CNBC lately, probably because they have few other items to report, please view the long-term, 10-20 year charts, of AA, AL, RLM, KLU....see, RLM is the same price as it was in 1987....ditto, AL, at $ 25, and KLU is lower....only AA is higher at all....in 12 years....So what's the big deal (a pun) ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's over-emotional, ignorant-about-stock-move-factors gal, Martha McCallum, said, 9 am, "it may be Friday the 13 th, but Wall St. got lucky today"....what the heck does that mean ? ....Has is been "lucky " that we have had bad breadth for almost a month recently till today ? She also misleadingly said, "look at the A/D figures today, almost 2-to-1 upside ....one of the strongest signs of a healthy market....beautiful" ....Excuse me ? A few days of mostly oversold, "dead-cat bounces from initial downside support" ? Even CNBC's Tom Costello then commented, (quote) "did she just say the action was 'beautiful' ? I think we'd better bring Pisani back.... she's been down there too long....losing perspective...." Wow.... 2) note how, exactly as I mentioned herein last time, the moment when the Media reported "negatively" about "WCOM", its stock made a V.S.T. oversold bottom and bounced....neat, huh.... 3) CNBC's Michelle Carbrera (again), Fri. 10:35 am, misleadingly (or, at least, incompletely) said, "see BBY, a very nice climb today..." Huh ? "today ?" Not only was it way up, in the last year, it is down from its highs....she also said, "the semi. chip makers are doing very poorly..." Again, I say, huh ? Until very recently, as I predicted, they had been the STRONGEST group around, yes ? honest....amazing also, that no one there has suggested she temper/check her often-incorrect comments, on stocks OF WHICH SHE CAN'T EVEN ANALYZE THE SHOWN CHARTS OF, WHILE SHE IS TALKING !!! Well, at some point, some of her comments have to be more correct, so we'll watch for that.... 4) CNBC's Allan Chernoff, Mon. 16 th, 9 am, said, "a great rally today, by the Terrific Techs"....gee, given their weakness lately, that is hardly a proper characterization, is it, Mr. "no-perspective".... 5) twice last week, CNBC-ers glowed over "PLMD", a stock I had ex-clients in (when its symbol was "PM", and pretty-much no one had heard of it), from around $ 5. in a L.T. base, check its L.T. chart history out....anyway, now, at least end of stage 2, yes ?
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) fundamental analysts love "MGG", Fri. 9:05 am, CNBC, from near $ 50., saying, "limited downside, unlimited upside"....hmmmm....check its chart.... Looks like a potential quadruple top, with some insider sales and no purchases ? (but not a formal opinion from me). But is already up a bunch from $ 22+ in less than a year....Remember, when the gaming stocks were down, and I was the first/only to give them out herein (MIR, CAW, WMS, HLT, STA, HET, etc.) as buys for you, these same analysts hated them, yes ? The sequential pattern never changes....oh, and, then, M.C. Cabrera had to say something incorrect, commenting, "let's look at MIR, which is climbing...." Huh ? "climbing" ? Did she SEE the price chart CNBC showed ? amazing....meanwhile, I added "AGY" as puttable, below.... 2) Fri. 13th, 9:25 am, M. Fund mgr. on CNBC, asked why "SBUX" (a stock I specifically gave you herein as a successful Put near its high) had fallen, said, "I guess there's only so much coffee all of us can drink per day" ....Oy....more proof of the often ridiculous, illogical, ignorant mindset of most mgrs. and stock fundamentalists....many of these same kind of guys got "lucky" in recent years, holding already-extended stocks which got more extended, but, those days likely ended earlier in 1999, as I predicted herein they would....hmmmm, SBUX's sales continue to RISE, even as their "stock price" fell, as predicted/expected....'nuff said....
3) while I gave one Q, S, loss in JNPR recently, it is now being "hailed by all of Wall St." as "the next CSCO"....a likely stage 4, impending kiss of death, sentiment-wise....we will keep an eye on it, for "the inevitable top", and, while I detest financials, fundamentally, even the CNBC reporter glowing about this stock up here, showed "estimated yearly sales" forward, for JNPR's product market, nowhere nearly justifying even the recent past market value of this stock.... so, caveat emptor....cruisin' for a bruisin', I'd say.... 4) ditto, at some point not too much higher, for SFA, though new high, where its pres., on CNBC, Fri., 10:30 am, said, "it's a great time to be in this business...." Likely also, to herald the beginning of the end for that run, ay ? ....5) on Wed. 11 th, CNBC, mentioned "HRC" possibly splitting up into two separate companies/stocks, saying, bullishly, "the package may be worth up to $ 18. a share"....O.K., but, technically, from $ 11 1/2, it is already under $ 10., so still not super, chart-wise....maybe they should have looked at a chart for two seconds....that said, around the 9. area, would begin to look worth watching, L.T. A 3 million share block went by at $ 10.... 6) 8/11, headline, "Wal-Mart announced 2 nd-quarter profit jump" 35 %"....but, its stock has been falling, yes ? ....7) 8/11 headline, "BP-Amoco profit rises 19 %; job cuts planned"....huh ? ....8) "TOY" announced earnings Mon. 16 th, CNBC reporter slams it....nobody likes it here....so, we'll take a shot at a double-bottom....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) CNBC, Fri., 9:50 am, 13 th, had another in a long line of fundamental, conservative, wing-tip, no-personality analysts/money mgrs. on, Russell Cleveland, who, when asked about the Internet stocks, said, "the fundamentals do not justify current prices, and we would just plain stay away from all Internet stocks"....He also said, "we expect big losses probably coming soon" ....Hmmm, "soon" ? Has he not SEEN the recent drops already ? Interesting that anyone would even care what HE had to say about them, since, a) he never caught any of them on the way up, anyway, b) never even remotely predicted any of their easily-predictable declines off obvious paraboilic tops, c) didn't even know about their falling to simply-seen support recently, and, d) he obviously is unable to be open to some new ideas. However, he said he liked "SRV" "long-term", "because people are always going to need its business"....which is fine, but that comment was also true, at much higher prices in the Funeral stcoks, as well, yes ? I'd be willing to bet his fund owns SRV at a nice loss, dig ? ....2) similarly, Fri. 13 th, 11:15 am, Smart Money's Peter Finch, now likes many Asian/China stocks, like, "CHL", because "there is value in the sheer number of people living there...." Uh, huh....But that was also true, last Spring 1998, when ALL those kinds of stocks were at MUCH lower prices, and I was among the first/only to give them out herein as buys near their lows, yes ? So, I ask, is that any reason to specially "begin buying" Asia/China stocks up here ? nope....Smart Money, as you know, has been notorious for contrarily-late/incorrect opinions on I.G.'s and stocks....is this just another case ? ....3) Mon., 16 th, Warburg, Dillon, Read, just initiated a new Buy on "NSM"....now ? way up here at $ 28. ? Gee, I gave it to you herein, when every "expert analyst" hated it, saying Intel would put them put of business, last year, around $ 8., remember ? the pattern never changes.... 4) the recent "puff commercial" from Janus Funds (which HAS been a decent M.F. group, BTW), said, they did all this fundamental research on a Drug co., and, after buying their stock, they made money, saying, "we get/got a piece of every pill sold"....
I say, NOT....they bought the "stock", NOT the "pills" sold....re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets....amazing how many people buy those lines.... 5) last, the newest Amer. Century Funds commercial, says, "since 1971, our funds have returned XXX %", etc., which is fine, except, they "joke" in their ad, has the comentator with a "disco" haircut, and disco music, which was from 1977, not 1971....but there was NO "disco" yet, in 1971, nor 1972....Again, ypou may think this is a small thing, but, the "PSYCLE sm" point is, that, once again, people even WITHIN the business, did not do the correct research, and still got it wrong, even in an innocuous commercial, misleading millions of investors....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
still more Gains for you, long and short: puts XRX (60 to 44+) for Q 150% Gain...."the CRB index" long (184 to 198) for VQ large % G....1/2 pos. puts NWAC (35- to 30++) for Q 70% G....1/2 pos. calls MAN (21+ to 26+) for Q 90% G....puts DLTR (44+ to 36-) for Q 80% G....bal. calls NEM (17+ to 21-) for Q 66% G....puts MYG (72+ to 64+) for 80% G....bal. puts SEE (66- to 57+) for VQ 75% G....bal. puts BTY (182 to 153+) for Q 100% G....bal. puts C. (50 to 44) for 44% G....puts EAT (28+ to 24+) for VQ 75% G....bal. puts FLT (45- to 40+) for Q 55% G....bal. puts CPWM (48 to 40) for Q 100% G....bal. puts ACXM (29+ to 23++) for 85% G....1/2 pos. stock KEG (3.06 to 4.93) for 55% G....bal. puts HPC (40- to 35-) for VQ 44% G.... 1/2 pos. puts ECL (43 to 40) for VQ 33% G....1/2 pos. puts CG (63 to 59) for Q 25% G....note, more "bal." pos. sales....
and/but, longs, HNV, CKR, and, puts, AMGN (80 to 74 to 81), ANTC, RBAK, ERTS, EXPD (32 to 27 to 32+), VCI., for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio. (note, ACTU, was removed immediately before Put)
in the last 5 NL's, you have now had the opportunity to have taken about 57 Large % Puts Gains, with 19 Q, S, puts losses here....not too bad....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) GLB @ 16+, 1/2 pos. IOM @ 3 3/4, NCT @ 14 1/8, RAH @ 16 1/8, 1/2 pos. TOY @ 15.06,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ADM @ 14-, ALI. @ 11-, ATC @ 1 3/16, ATV @ 1 1/4, AVM @ 3+, BAL @ 1 7/8, BGO @ 9/16, BS @ 7 5/8, CAU @ 0.20, CCH @ 0.28, CDE @ 4 3/16, CNS @ 16-, CPQ @ 22+, DAY @ 0.06, FAF @ 15++, FWC @ 12-, GRERF @ 1/8, HEC @ 1 3/4, KRY @ 5/8, LDW @ 6 1/8, MCL @ 8+, MSN @ 9/16, PMC @ 8 3/16, PSFT @ 13, SCY @ 4.06, SLE @ 21+, TMK @ 32+, UQM @ 4+, VGZ, WTT @ 1 3/4, "the Sept. T-bond at 113+"....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
*** O.K., we'll try this anew: do NOT overreact, or mortgage the house, but the "best" optionables, near their recent lows only, seem to be: ADM, CPQ, CNS, RAH, S., FAF, and, PSFT, BS, just somewhat less so ?
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, DLP, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ALSC @ 11, AMAT @ 76+, ARBA @ 127, CNXT @ 68-, FDC @ 49++, FULL @ 68++, GPSI. @ 46+, MCHP @ 55 1/8, 1/2 pos. ORCL @ 39, P. @ 53-, PLMD @ 18+, RFMD @ 79++, ROIA @ 44, SDLI. @ 73+, 1/2 pos. SMTC @ 70-,
"Repeats": (note, more here, dig ?) ADI. @ 49+, ASD @ 48++, CL @ 50-, CLS @ 46+, DSCP @ 34, FCX/A @ 16++, KLAC @ 70+, LZ @ 29+, OTRKB @ 56-, PERC @ 51, QCOM @ , SII. @ 50-, UVN @ 68, WFT @ 38+, WGR @ 16+,
and/but, took, RTRSY, SDSK, SFA, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", TPN, LWN, NWK, UNA, WHX, AGU, CBR, TZA, PMTC, SUN, CWC, IHS, JM, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, TER, HWP, PCS, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
actually, some nice movers, even into a "correction": DAY 0.09 up 0.03, ESOL 1.06 up 0.31, BGO 3/4 up 1/4, AIMM 4 up 3/4, cash Gold 283+ up 3, "the Sept. T-Bond" 114 18/32 up 1 1/4, IOM 4 3/8 up 5/8, SCY 4 3/4 up 7/8, PSFT 14 7/8 up 1 7/8, FAF 16 7/8 up 1 3/8, MCL 8 3/4 up 1/2, CPQ 23 5/8 up 1 3/8, NCT 14 7/8 up 1, KSE 27 3/4 up 1, RHI. 26 7/8 up 7/8, CNS 17 1/8, TSK 18 1/4, S. 40 7/8, NPK 37 3/8 up 7/8, ADM 14 7/8, GLB 17, KEG 5, BDS 4, higher still, since last time here....and, OLS 10 7/8, EXX/A, DBRSY 30+, RIG 36, PKD 5+, SEM 11, higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or bounces off pullbacks: LDW 6 3/4 up 3/4, UQM 4-, 4 3/8, IDC 5 3/4, SLE 22, SAMC, PMD, RPM, PLC, LDW, BS, NPSI., IO., MTSI., NPRO, BAL, HEC, IFMX, FWC, APFC, WTT, SHO, TMD, HOC, TBP, RLC, IHK, RAD, PFC, CCC, FNL, HIV, TXB, UFC, TPS, MSN, ALI., CCH, NEM, OJ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) ALI. 10 5/8, LDW, UFC, WTT, TMK, IDC, TSC, SCY, HOC, HZP, HPH, MAN, NEM, TPS, IDS, AVM, HCM, HIV, TXB, DAY, SSC, OMM, RYO, CAU, MSN, MB....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
lots more nice decliners, for you, please read carefully/thoroughly: HWP -7, AMAT -7 1/2, KLAC -2, ROI/A -2, FDC -1 3/4, GPSI. -1 1/4, XRX -1, FCX/A -1, ROK, DSCP, ECL, LIT, ACXM (S), BRR, IIN, down/further, since last time here....while, MTP, HDI, ASD, AVY, approach their 200 DMA's, NX, ECL, GCI, COX, fell to their 200 DMA (S), and, ECILF, RTN/A, FLS, WWY, "DJ. Util. Avg.", lower still....also, see, PHCC, got whacked anyway....all given you herein as puttables near their highs.....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, ADSK, EPAY, CATP, FC, GPC, HWD, RAH, USI, to, ESOL, TSA, S., STK, FAF, ALI., PLC, TKR, TSC, BDS, IDS, HM, MCK, CKP, UNA, RPM, NCT, MCL, BAL, LWN, IHS, BLD, GLB, WHX, WRE, OMI, LTV, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats": add, CB, TOY, USB, BMG, CSR, GFD, IBC, PHM, to, CWC, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, SAMC, SCY, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, NEON, FWC, NHC, KSE, RHI., CNS, HRC, PMS, to, ADM, IHK, IHS, CYB, FNL, PMD, TW, NCT, ORB, SGE, VL, VCR, AVM, ONX, SHO, LDW, HLX, TMK, HEC, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list.... They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
obviously, again, some of these have already now fallen, and may be too late to "begin" to buy puts on....did you take the time to VIEW their charts ? if not, I don't know what more I can say to you....will see more, when I view the new chartbook, coming weekend....
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: CCBL, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: SBC, GCI., CNXT, etc.
Financial/Bank: PAYX, JPM, SEIC, PL, AXP, etc.
Chemical-relateds: PCH, ALD, DD, etc.
Retail/Clothing: FDS, LTD, TOM, etc.
other "techs/computer/software/semis/media, etc." , Puttables, are in two lists just below....note, several "semis" added, I am the first/only to do so here, dig ? theirs are mostly "much shorter-term tops"....but, across the board, they can fall to their 200 DMA's by the Fall....
**** new ones: many more added, ADVS, AMCC, AOG, AGY, ARBA, BA, CXY, DSPG, FRTE, FULL, GALT, GST, LVCI, MNMD, MRL, P., PLMD, PVY, PWAV, QLGC, RFMD, SDLI, TER, WLL, to, ACTU, ADBE, ALSC, ANTC, AXP, BBRC, BEM, BRR, CNXT, DRTE, EMC, FMC, FDC, HWP, KMB, MEA, PEB, DSCP, EXDS, FOSL, HLIT, KLAC, MCHP, OTRKB, PCS, RSC, SJI., SNPS, TRB, TUP, UVN, WFT, WGR, ACS, ADRX, CAKE, CHRW, CNXT, EFII, EMLX, FCX/A, GE, GTSG, HAN, KWP, LZ, MCRL, NT, ORCL, PB, PKY, QCOM, SEBL, SUI, to, HON, JNPR, MEDQ, RNWK, ROI.A, ALGX, ESST, GPSI, TRY, SFX, in recent NL's, and,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, LXK, PERC, PKS, VTEL, VRTY, and most "amex WEBS" securities, and, now, most "amex SPDR's" securities as well....but, note, some of these have already pulled back off highs, so one wants only to Put them, if at all, into rallies, yes ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Paper", "Publishing", "Banks, on strength only", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given all the good stuff above, and lately, no need for a special lesson today....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....