Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, issue # 207+ ended.....(but this NL is Not really being published formally, publically, any more), dated: 9:30 am, PST, Friday, August 18, 2000

Important Note: this "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to gestapo, uncaring, and ridiculous NASD and SEC rules, and the uncaring and thoughtless nature of the brokerage firm with which I am currently associated....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance track record, and further significant 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Looking back, the last few months have easily been one of the toughest periods I have ever experience, with many issues not doing what they should....

As I mentiuoned first here recently, I.I. bullish/bearish and % above MA's figures are improving, technically, proving again this potential rally is broadening out....may again be good for our longside ideas....

As happens ever election summer, L.A.T. did the usual study of 'what might happen if either Dem. or Rep. party wins in Nov., vs. "the S & P", etc. And, the economists polled have evidently predicted 11 of the last 13 election results (don't get me started), back to 1948....But they supposedly have been trying to use the S & P's amount of rise/fall, to 'predict' which party will win in Nov., especially incumbents re-running....So what, big deal, of no "D.A.P.P.V." anyway, for many reasons....Then, they compunded their ignorance and wasted space, by giving lists of supposed "political portfolios", for when/if Dem. or Rep. candidates win, after Nov. Amazing....just for the record, let's see how they do down the road....they list, "Gore stocks", as: AOL, SUNW, WSTNA, SEVN, LNC, HRB, and, "Bush stocks", as, MSFT, BPA, GP, WY, STT, ASF....supposedly 'linking' certain I.G.'s to certain political parties....gee, like, they linked Health stocks to Dem., (but) as those stocks fell, as their party did well, right ? need I go on ? Oh, and their big headline was, "bullish news, regardless of which party wins", which should be a cautionary note, ay ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) if you have missed very recent pop in Golds, shame on you....how many other times have I been right on this I.G. 4 U herein ? we were, yet again, the first/only again recently ....2) the "BTK" Biotech stock index looks nicely toppy again.... 3) looks like I was, again, the first/only to give depressed Aero./Def. from lows herein for you, like, LEA, GSTRF, etc. ...4) action in stocks like, HWP, 'beating the street' eps, etc., continues to illustrate 'sucker-em-in' action among more than a few extended 'big-names'....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) CNBC's new ignorant reporter gal, Wed. 9:33, Lynn something, incorrectly said, "the price of Corel stock jumped this morning on new of a new CEO....", when in fact, it rose 1-and-2-days ago, BEFORE any news came out, dig ? then, she compounded this by also incorrectly saying, "Boeing shares continued its sharp drop again today, on news it bought Tribune's subsidiary, down to 46 3/4 now....", when, in fact, BA stock is way UP recently, from 34 to 50....amazing, huh....God forbid they would acvtually hire a neat gal some day.... 2) Thu. CNBC's Obrien/Bauman, 9;48, said one of the most incorrect statements I have ever heard, that, about "RSH", "this is about as attractive a stock chart one can see, especially among Retail stocks, in a long time...." Gee, I guess our TOM, KM, ASHW, CNS, etc. look(ed) worse ? and, where was he when the Retail stocks were at bottoms ? I rest my case....again.... 3) PIsani after close, Thu., said, "an index of ALL, every single Energy-related stocks, hit an all-time high....you NEVER see a whole I.G. rise together like that....." Uh, excuse me ? wrong...it happens often.,...it is just that YOU miss them....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) you know we don't do 'news' trading, but with VZ's strike close to settlement, Thu., might COVD, NPNT, RTHM, which broke earlier, all bottom and pop V.S.T. ? we shall see....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Goldman, Scahs says no way any further I.R. rises for balance of 2000.... 2) in a rare bearish report on CNBC, John Roque, Wed., Arnhold Cp., dislikes the Biotechs, calling for -20 % correction.... 3) Wed., CNBC's Pisani, 8:35, says "we are seeing much, much higher levels of 'big block trades' in WSM, HD, WMT, recently, he says, a sign of insitutions wanting to get out....there is nothing wrong with these companies, yet big block selling in Retailers...." ....4) hey, good news: the aptly-named Motley Fools, love SEBL up here -- you know what to do about that, yes ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

bal. puts SOS (14+ to 8++) for Q 200% Gain....1/2 pos. calls DCN (21 to 27+) for Q 150% G....bal. calls NFB ? for % G....1/2 pos. stock MSN (0.60 to 1.25) for L.T. 100 % G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. TCC (10+ to 14) for VVQ 125% G....1/2 pos. calls LZB (14++ to 17+) for Q 80% G....1/2 pos. calls FMO (9+ to 12-) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts MACR (90- to 76) for VVQ 66% G....at least 1/2 pos. puts DTPI. (89 to 79+) for VQ 44% G....

and/but, longs, ALK ?, ADIC, GTA, WG no, ADM !?, CCH ?, BSX, not HEC yet, MPS ?, ENTU ?!, AVS, COVD, 1/2 pos. FMO (12+ to 9 to 12-), MSTR ?!, and, puts, RIG, HDI, KMI, CEI, VRTX ?, GRP, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still way too many QSL's....rare....recent....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. DOW @ 27++, LTC @ 6-, 1/2 pos. ICGE @ 30- ?, 1/2 pos. NETA @ 19-, 1/2 pos. STK @ 11 1/8, 1/2 pos. TRN @ 18+....

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ABF @ 15- ?, ACK @ 15++, ADM @ 9+ no ?, ALK no ? ARG @ 5++, ASA @ 15+, ASL @ 1 1/2, BD @ 4-, BEOS @ 4 1/8, BGO ?, BKS @ 17 1/4, BYD @ 4 3/8, CBJ @ 0.38, CKP @ 7 5/8, CPB 26-, CSCQ @ 4, DROOY @ 15/16, ENTU no ?, FMT @ 4-, GLT @ 10 1/8, GON @ 15++, GPC @ 20+, GSTRF @ 7+, HEC no ?, HLIT @ 22+, HMK @ 4.69, KM @ 6 7/8, LRW @ 4.06 ?, MAT @ 10+, MDR @ 7++, MMG @ 4, MPS no ?, MSTR no, NOW @ 1/2, PAP @ 5-, PLC @ 1.18, PZN 2 1/8, QCOM @ 61, RAD @ 4+, RAZF @ 15+, SRR @ 6-, STEI. @ 2 1/4 ?, TCC @ 10+, TSO @ 9 1/8, TWR @ 11++, USL @ 4 3/8 ?, USU @ 4 1/8, WAB @ 9++, WGO @ 12++, XDSL @ 6 1/2, ZMBA @ 5- ...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, PUMA ?, MI, HS, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....note this list growing, dig ?

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. ADI. @ 98-, ADRX @ 86, 1/2 pos. IDPH @ 138+, JNPR ?, 1/2 pos. KO @ 62++, 1/2 pos. PLCM @ 104, PWER @ 150+, 1/2 pos. SEBL @ 174++,

"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') INFA @ 89+, MANU @ 64-, MDT @ 56+, MYGN @ 162, NETE @ 94, NEWP @ 129, SLB @ , SNC @ 25++, SYK @ 47-, SYY @ 43-....still some Energies....

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, ALA, SCI, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", MRCH, AMZN, KANA, N, A, and got whipsawed out of HLTH, PMUA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, GENZ ?, MXIM ?, JNPR ?, RNBO, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
BEOS 4.93 up 1, ZMBA 5 11/16 up 11/16, RAZF 17.31 up 2.25, GSTRF 8.56 up 1, ASA 17.43 up 1.18, NITE 29.93 up 1.62, STK 12 1/4 up 1 1/4, TRN 19.06 up 0.81, NETA 19.81 up 1, RHAT 26 1/8 up 1, AOL 55 7/8 up 1 7/8, LTC 6.31, ALI. 2 1/2, MDR 8 1/8, ABX 17 5/8, DROOY 1.16, GON 16 1/2, BMG 2, DPH 16.43, ARG 6 1/2, LEA 26.81, CORL 4.18, GLT 10.68, CSCQ 5, CAT 39.31, MDG 6.68, WAB 11, KIDE 22, UPM 28.18, DCN 27.56, CKP 7 1/8, higher since last time here....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
MUEI. 11 3/8 up 1 1/4, BYD 4.75 up 0.44, KM 6.81, HLIT 25.56 up 2.75, DT 41 5/8, CORL 3 1/4, BEOS 4.43, PDG 9.31, SRR 6.31, DCN 26.56, RHAT 23 1/8, CSCQ 4, 4 3/4, CORL 3 1/2, GSTRF 7 3/4, KIDE 20.50, PZN 2 1/8, ESR, NOVL 9 1/2, DT 43 5/8 up 1 5/8, DCX 54 1/2, UPM, ALK, ACK, GT, FMT 4.68, 3.93, CMB 50, PMTC 12.43, TLK 7 1/2, BCC, USU, R., LZB, HOV, SEV, ADM, PHC, HMK, CPB, FILE 16-, OHI, HDG, IOM, CCC, ASHW, WYN, HA, IP, ACI, OCN, TSO, CNS 13 7/8, 13, NOW, TWA, AZC, MLG, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) XDSL 6.48, ALK 26-, MPS 7, RAD, HLIT, TOM 9, ALDN, NETO, WGO 12 1/2, LOR 7.06 up 0.69, USU, CDNW, HEC, GEN, MLG, TSO, NCC, CPB, TWA, ADM, TGX 7, TRN 18 1/4, ABF, BKS, RAD, FWC, ASL, HRC, BGO, NFB, CMH, NOW, PAP, ENTU, MSTR, UPM, SRR, CCH....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out:
IDPH -15, QLTI. -7, ADI. -7, MANU -8 1/2, PWER -6, ADRX -6, PLCM -5 1/2, MDT -5, +1, VRTX -4, KO -3, MXIM -2, ALA -2, MACR -2 1/2, AHP -2, SOS -1 1/4 (S), AHP -1, lower, since last NL here....and, PDCO 19, much lower still....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: SYY -1, HSII. -3 1/2, DTPI. -2, +3, IWOV +5, -3, +5, PWER +5, NETE +2 1/2, IDPH +7, QLTI. +2 1/2, GRP +1, MYGN -7, +2, INFA -2, +2, NEWP +6, -3, SNC, MANU +1 1/2, MACR +2....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


Health-relateds (HDG, ALI, OHI, TGX ?, BSX ?, RX, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (LTC, HCN, ENN, CWN, ALI, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, etc.)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, CNS, BCF, JCP, KM, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (GT, DPH, BD, GPC, TWR, ALK no ?, DCX, WAB, TWA, HMK, HRZ, ABF ?, TRN ?, WGO ?, etc.)
* plus, some "Leisure" names, Waste (HB, USL, ESR), still o.k.
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources" (USU, ABX, ASA, BMG, DROOY, CBJ ?, etc.), Housing (WYN, LZB, CMH, CN, ACK, WGO, etc.), Paper (PAP, GLT, IP, BCC, etc.), Food (IGL, CPB, GXY, etc.), Prisons (CSCQ, PZN, etc.), Banks, Travel, Aero./Def., Catalog/Mail Order, Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., Precious Metals, Industries....

"busted techs" (CDNW, NOW, FILE, ASKJ, KIDE, CMRC, MSTR, DCLK, AMZN tln, RZAF, QCOM, MRCH, ICGE, ESPI, RHAT, PUMA, IBIS, ENTU, AOL, those below, soon ?) maybe, as with Y2K stocks a while ago off their 'hated bottom", some 'busted Internets', etc., in potential bases/EVB's, "D.B.'s", ahead, etc. ?

and, since I gave you so many other depressed 'L.T. old-economy' stocks, here are more ahead ? : DOW, IR, HON, PPG, TRN, KM, PRD, AM, CNF, MAT, LZ, X, ADM, from lists herein....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

add, STEI. ?, LRW ?, XDSL, NETA, HON, DOW, IR, PPG, STE, TRN ?, UCR, TSP, TFS, A. ?, AU, AVA ?, BKS, MMR, MAI. ?, LZ ?, JS ?, JDN, FCX, CC, CTS, TJX, CNF, CTB, IMP, AVR, to, DT, CD, MAT, CKP, MTP, DELL, NEON, RADN ?, BGO ?, STK, SRR, X, FBN, ITB, GON, CMGI, NTN, PLC, STB, OPI, WIX, ODP, BTO, to, SQM, TGC, ESPI, KEA, AAI, RLC, IKN, UB, BMC, ARG, AM, PHC, EDS, HMY, MPS, PER, SWM, USV, WPO, JBM, USM, PRD, HEC, SUB, MMG, ATX, CORL, IHK, TLK, ADM ?, MDG, HRC, PII, FSW, SRR, SSC, CTO, HNV, GLC, XCL, SRS, TSO, PZN, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....

'total return potential/yield-plus' section: LTC, UST, FMT, GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, JDN....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been removed:

* add, AMCC, ADI, ATON, ADRX, BSTE, CHKP, GENZ, IDPH, MXIM, ACAI, CELG, MACR, JNPR, GSPN, NMSS, PLCM, QGENF, RNBO, SEBL ?, AHP, SNC, STT, SYK, FII. ?, GELX, HSII, INFA, MANU, NETE, MYGN, PWER, ONIS, VICR, ADCT, BRL, WAT, KO, to,

(repeats) JDSU, DFXI, BVF, FEI, ELF, EVER, IONA, IWOV, TIBX, IEX, BRCM, ELNT, RSYS, PFE, CHKP, MLNM, SYY, AGN, MDT, NDN, CDIS, MRK, from recent past NL's....again, note list growing again a bit, mostly re-added names....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic: REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev. ?, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES