1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) I am hearing more and more analysts-who-never-called-the-rises, and/or lost money in the recent drops, getting bullish on the Internet stocks, "because all their business is done in the coming 4th quarter", etc. Sure, as I said, for a bounce off their predicted stage 6, S.T. lows, at/from their 200 DMA's, but, that's all it is likely to be.... 2) gee, who was the first/only to have called recent top in Semis ? you're welcome.... 3) the developing bearish divergence between their A/D line, and the Nikkei. index, is beginning to look like ours has been....Not good, dig ? ....4) the chart of the 30-year T-Bond Yield, is close to breaking BELOW its rising trendline from last year's yield lows....meaning, now that "the 95 %" are looking for higher and higher I.R.'s, I gave you the T-Bond, Long, at recent double-bottom lows...If its' yield falls below the high 5's, rates could fall even further....surprising nearly everyone (but not us, right ?)....I may be among the very few to be seeing this potential.... 5) as the DJ. Util. Avg. falls to its 200 DMA, at just below 310., as I was the first/only to have predicted (boy, we have been right on the Utils., 3 straight big moves now, for BIG gains for you in options), one can begin to sell the rest of any Puts you may have on them.... neat ....As I have taught you, options on Utils. have such small premiums, etc., often providing us great values, in both directions.... 6) note the kinda significant accumulation, higher volume, among our "real cheapie Gold" stocks lately....it may still mean nothing, but am watching that....are you in ? Obviously, these are super-risky, and not available in qualified plan accounts, and are possibly longer-term only, but buying a package, with a small percentage of one's portfolio, near recent lows only, is logical...."buy low", right ? While we eschew 95 % of all fundamentals, Thu., 10 am, CNBC reported that the "world gold council" said that "demand for gold" rose +16 % in 1999 vs. last year, so far.... and you still have never traded Gold stocks with us ? if not, why not ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) 8/15, L.A. Times, front-page, highlighted "MNMD", a potential Put of mine, way up here, check its L.T. chart out.... parabolic....you know what that means.... 2) Wed., 18 th, upon hearing that "PHL" will delist their stock, I actually partially blame the Media, from a "PSYCLE sm" p.o.v., for, first, the over-hype, and then, the logical fall, in the Planet Hollywood, Rainforest, Speedway, others, etc., 'specialty restaurant' stocks.... first, up in parabolas, then down, into trouble....normal, usual, predictable.... 3) similarly, I saw Marketwatch Cp. stock profiled on CNBC, Wed. 18 th, 9:20 am, down quickly, from $ 130. to $ 30.+, after its IPO hype....remember, FACT: the vast majority of IPO's have FALLEN, most big-time, after their first trading day ....As the Internet fades, and/or at least levels off, their claim that "3.8 MM new eyeballs visit their site each month" cannot be accurate....I keep hearing numbers like that from many other websites, yet, no one I know of, visits any of the sites I hear such numbers from --- and, while probably 30-40 MM people do use the Internet to any extent, there is NO way, that, for instance, 3.8 MM 'new' people visit this one site each month, because, after 10 months, every user in the country will have had to have visited it, right ? impossible....Maybe, maybe, the same 10 % of them visit every day, and they add those numbers up, then mislead the public in ads ? Nah, internet companies would never mislead or overstate anything to the public, would they ? and, hey, I just realized, that "3.8 MM eyeballs" translates to only 1.9 MM actual people, right ? unless these are all people with just one eyeball each....and "the 95 %" continue to let such fundamnentals rule their choosing/timing decisions ? yikes.... 4) Wed., CNBC's L. O'Brien highlighted our "LVCI.", one of the Puts I gave you near its high, as all of Wall St. glowed, back near its high, about all the "eye laser surgery" stocks, yes ? note, they only mention the stock, AFTER it had ALREADY fallen....and, of course, "LVCI." is already approaching its 200 DMA support, just as THEY 'begin' to get bearish, dig ? He also then covered "VISX" bullishly, here, at $ 94, so I added it as a "PSYCLE sm" Puttable for you....the pattern never changes....I remember getting hate calls, when I put "BEAM" on my puts list near its L.T. high, but that's another story.... 5) as "MCD" opened its 25,000-th unit, please know, that, in the 1980's, ALL the "fundamental experts" said, they had reached their 'saturation point', years and years ago, remember ? And, how, twice, from early 1970's, and early 1980's, its stock just sat, for years, with no decent gains.... The Media ruined this insignificant story, as usual, anyway, interviewing analysts who, only now, way up here, say MCD stock is "undervalued" ....yeah, right.... where were they in the depressed base ?
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments from "Fundamentalists/
Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) L.A. Times, surprisingly misleading article by Tom Petruno, a guy I like and respect (though he also never fulfilled with me, professionally, but I digress), titled, "Big Growth Stocks: Dead Money for How Much Longer ?" Huh ? "Dead Money " ? Excuse me ? Where he gets that from, I don't know, because, as we all know, generally, "big growth stocks" have been among THE best performing types, L.T., the last several years, yes ? Far from 'dead money'....Of course, then, he only went back 2 years, and only chose 5 such stocks: DIS, G., MO, CLX, KO, from Aug. 1997....which is misleading, and unfair, and CLX had actually been up a ton before recent smallish predicted decline....why even write this article ? He wrote, "we have trouble finding a common thread" to explain why these few stocks have underperformed....so, why not concentrate on what DOES work ? ....2) I was the first/only to suggest a S.T. top in "HWP", even as they beat Wall St. earnings estimates, based on "PSYCLE sentiment" here.... 3) and, gee, who was the first/only to Put "AMAT" recently at its high, while all the "experts" loved it ? We were....Wed., 18 th, CNBC reporter said AMAT reported "blow-out results", beating the street, etc. --- but, because of the way its chart looked, the stock fell, as predicted....neat....are you learning the patterns ? ....4) Wed., "SPLS" annonced higher-then-expected earnings, etc. --- but its stock, which I was first/only to give out as Put near highs, in that "Ofc. Sup. store" I.G., had fallen from $ 35+ to 24-. recently....as I have proven for years, earnings mean almost NOTHING.... 5) CNBC's L. Bauman, Thu. 19 th, 9:50 am, correctly, pointed out that a big analyst just began a new Buy on "USAI.", way up here (where was he near the lows ?), even as its pres. had just sold a bunch of its shares, as an insider, dig ? Shouldn't overpaid, overrated analysts know of such things ? the pattern never changes....but USAI. does not yet have the perfect stage 4 chart for a potential super-downside move....yet.
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Mon. 11 am, CNBC, reported that the 3 underwriters for the recent IPO, "Hoovers" stock, came out with -- surprise -- formal, new buy recommendations on it....well, duh.... 2) on CNBC, Mr. Horbacker, at AG Edwards, Tue. 17 th, 8:55 am, who agrees with me that I.R.'s are more likely to FALL from recent recovery highs, S.T., pointed out that "every single economist (they) interviewed thought rates would continue to rise for the foreseeable future" (get it ?)....similarly, EVERYONE I speak with also thinks/expects rates will rise a lot more....so, we go the Other way, after VIEWING the CHARTS, yes ? ....3) I was again shocked Thu. 19 th, CNBC, 8:40 am, when Bill Seidman (again, a guy I respect) actually said, "a weak dollar always means lower stock prices" (twice, no less)....Fact: for the upteenth time: in the early 1980's, the U.S. Dollar contract FELL, tremendously, from 150+, to 85+ (wow), AS the Dow (and other indexes), ROSE quite a bit, for years....re-read my "Media" booklet....again: "one" supposed economic item, by itself, CANNOT be used, blankly, to try to predict future prices of ANYTHING, ever....period....Similarly, the "women" on CNBC, Thu. 9 am, again, incorrectly, suggested that the U.S. "record high trade deficits" are/have somehow "impacted stock prices"....which is, and always has been, total B.S., as I have taught you....Fact: those "deficits" have BEEN rising, continually, for years, right ? Which is, according to them, supposedly "bad", as per "their" ignorant comments, right ? If so, then, how can one "link" that item, because many, many, of our multinational and tech. stocks prices have been RISING for years, not falling, right ? Geez....You'd think these people would learn something once in a while....'nuff said.... 4) CNBC, Thu., 9: 30 am, continued to present M. Fund managers of supposedly "socially responsible" stocks....Please re-read my previous comments about that pile of hypocritical, misleading, underperforming rubbish, for people with high guilt, and low self-esteem, a 'concept' which does not even exist in reality to be exploited anyway (how's that for right-on PSY-chological analysis ? thought you'd like that).
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. stock AIMM (2- to 4-) for 100% Gain....bal. stock KEG (3.06 to 5-) for Q 50% Gain....1/2 pos. stock TSC (4- to 5++) for VQ 40% G....bal. NWAC (35- to 31+) for VQ 44% G....bal. puts CG (63 to 60) for VQ 33% G....bal. puts DJ. Util. Avg. (332 to 310) for Q, Large % Gain....
and/but, longs, HPH, LWN, IDS, SLE, HZP, BAL, ATC, TMK, ADM, MB, and, puts, QCOM, TRY, TOM ?, ADBE, CXY, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio. (of interest, many "minor new highs" smacks of "fakeout breakouts" again ?), and/but, too many Very small longside losses all of a sudden....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) 1/2 pos. BBC @ 15 1/8, BMG @ 1 13/16, "the D.J. Industrial Avg. itself" @ 1177,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ALI. @ 10++,ATV @ 1 1/4, AVM @ 3+, BGO @ 9/16, CAU @ 0.16, CCH @ 0.28, CDE @ 4 3/16, CNS @ 16-, DAY @ 0.065, FAF @ 15++, GRERF @ 1/8, HEC @ 1 3/4, KRY @ 9/16, LDW @ 6 1/8, MCL @ 8+, MSN @ 9/16, RAH @ 16 1/8, TOY @ 15.06, UQM @ 4+, VGZ, WTT @ 1 3/4....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, NHP, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ADVS @ 48-, AGY @ 14-, AMCC @ 92+, AXP @ 140, BA @ 46+, BGEN @ , CMVT @ 79, 1/2 pos. DRTE @ 37++, DSPG @ 42-, EMLX @ 121+, FAST @ 58-, IMNX @ 135, KMB @ 61-, MNMD @ 86+, MRL @ 17-, NXTL @ 59++, PWAV @ 37, ROI/A @ 45-, SDLI. @ 73+, VRSN @ 91, VTSS @ 70, WLL @ 49+,
"Repeats": (note, more here, dig ?) ALSC @ 11-, ASD @ 48++, CL @ 50-, CLS @ 46+, CNXT @ 70-, DSCP @ 34, FDC @ 49++, FULL @ 69++, GPSI. @ 46+, KLAC @ 69, LZ @ 29+, MBK @ 15+, MCHP @ 55+, NT @ 88-, ORCL @ 39+, OTRKB @ 57, P. @ 53-, PERC @ 51, PLX @ 20-, ROK @ 61+, SMTC @ 70-, TYC @ 105-, WFT @ 39, WGR @ 16+,
note, my Puts list is still expanding....
and/but, took, JCI., AOG, CXY, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", GFD, HRC, HWD, USI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, QLGC, BBRC, MEA, HWP, TRB, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
actually, some nice movers, even into a "correction": CAU up , BMG 2 up 1/4, GDC 2 5/8 up 1/4, BDS 4 1/2 up 11/16, SGE 7 3/4 up 1 1/2, SCY 5 1/4 up 1/2, TOY 16 3/8 up 1 1/2, BS 8 3/8 up 5/8, CPQ 24 3/4 up 2, NCT 15 1/2 up 1, TKR 18 1/2, CNS 18 1/8, CYB 4 7/8, CB 59 1/4 up 1 1/4, KSE 28 1/2 up 1, "the Sept. T-Bond 115 11/32 up 1 1/8 more, cash Gold 264.30, higher still, since last time here....also, ICI. 53-, higher as well....remember, I not only gave you the Chem. stocks recently as Puts near their tops, I also gave them to you near their previous lows herein....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or bounces off pullbacks: HIV 3 up 1 1/8, then 2 3/8, IDC 5 5/8 up 3/4, NEM 20 3/8 up 1 3/8, LDW 6 7/8, ADM (S), CB, NPK, UQM, IOM, CNS, SAMC, PMD, RPM, PLC, NPSI., IO., MTSI. 16 up 1, NPRO, CPQ, HEC, IFMX, FWC, APFC, WTT, SHO, TMD, HOC, TBP, RLC, IHK, RAD, PFC, CCC, FNL, TXB, UFC, TPS, MSN, ALI., CCH, OJ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) ALI., LDW, UFC, WTT, TSC, HOC, MAN, NEM, CB, TPS, AVM, HCM, HIV, TXB, SSC, OMM, RYO, CAU, MSN....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
plenty more nice decliners, for you, please read carefully/thoroughly: ARBA -22, EMLX -11 1/2, IMNX +2, -12, VRSN -8 1/2, IMNX -8, SMTC -7 1/4, AMCC -7, AMAT -7 1/2, SDLI. -6, CMVT -6, ORCL -4, DSPG -3 5/8, NXTL -4, CNXT -4, TYC -4, SDLI. -3 1/2, ADI. -3, FAST -3 1/2, PWAV -3, KLAC -3 1/2, AXP -4, +2, MCHP -4, CCBL +3, -6, VTSS -3 1/4, NT -3, MNMD -2, WLL -3,
more: OAT -2 5/8, WFT -2, KMB -2, BRR -1 1/2, DJ. Util. Avg. 311+, OTRKB -1, ROI/A -1, FCX/A -1, DD -1, ALD -1, FDC -1, BA -1, LZ -1, MBK, IIN, ECL, ALSC, MRL, AGY -1, FMC, LIT, ECL, down/further, since last time here....and, FOSL 29+ (S), IPI 37, still lower.... and, CMCSK, fell to its 200 DMA (S)....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, ADSK, EPAY, CATP, FC, GPC, HWD, RAH, USI, to, ESOL, TSA, S., STK, FAF, ALI., PLC, TKR, TSC, BDS, HM, MCK, CKP, UNA, RPM, NCT, MCL, LWN, IHS, GLB, WRE, OMI, LTV, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats": add, TOY, USB, BMG, GFD, IBC, PHM, to, CWC, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, SAMC, SCY, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers ....still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, NEON, FWC, NHC, KSE, RHI., CNS, HRC, PMS, to, IHK, IHS, CYB, FNL, PMD, TW, NCT, ORB, SGE, VL, VCR, AVM, ONX, SHO, LDW, HLX, TMK, HEC, NPSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list.... They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Semiconductors: ALSC, AMCC, MCHP, KLAC, GALT, SDLI., TER, QLGC, ESST, etc.
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: IMNX, CCBL, MEDQ, PERC, VISX, DSCP, BGEN, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: SBC, GCI., CNXT, QCOM, UVN, DSPG, etc.
Financial/Bank: PAYX, JPM, SEIC, PL, AXP, etc.
Chemical-relateds: PCH, ALD, DD, LZ, etc.
Energy, Services: TOT, WFT, WGR, P., BRR, MRL, etc.
Paper-related: KMB, MEA, WLL, IP, GP, etc.
other "techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below....
keep in mind, I am still looking for many extended Techs, Retails, etc., to form broader tops after rallies....
**** others, and new ones: many more added, ADVS, AFFX, AGY, ARBA, BA, DSPG, FRTE, FULL, GP, GSTRF, IP, LVCI, MNMD, PLMD, PVY, PWAV, QGENF, RFMD, VISX, VRSN, VTSS, WLL, to, BBRC, BEM, BRR, DRTE, EMC, FMC, FDC, FDS, KMB, LTD, MEA, PEB, DSCP, EXDS, FOSL, HLIT, HWP, OTRKB, PCS, RSC, SJI., SNPS, TUP, ACS, ADRX, CAKE, CHRW, EFII, EMLX, FCX/A, GE, HAN, KWP, MCRL, NT, ORCL, PB, PKY, SUI, HON, JNPR, RNWK, ROI.A, ALGX, GPSI, SFX, in recent NL's, and,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, PKS, VTEL, VRTY, and most "amex WEBS" securities, and, now, most "amex SPDR's" securities as well....but, note, some of these have already pulled back off highs, so one wants only to Put them, if at all, into rallies, yes ?
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Paper", "Publishing", "Banks, on strength only", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given all the good stuff above, and lately, no need for a special lesson today....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....