1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) note "bt." some Utilities at 200 DMA.... 2) the Bells and long-distance Telecom stocks are correcting, as expected, only some a bit later than I had figured.... still, I was the only guy around to have been bearish on them in their longer- rounding top chart formations....we caught some for you, and missed some....Please just notice their patterns, and know that Rotation affects ALL groups, in time.... 3) as you know, we are not crazy about Fundamentals, but, F. Barbera, KWHY-tv, Fri. 20 th, 9:55 am, pointed out, that, within the Oil Service I.G., rental/utilization/day rates for those companies, remain below last year-or-two's levels, and, as I told him, and you, the "stocks" of most of the companies in that I.G., still look toppy, and NOT even remotely ready for any potential "measured move higher equal to their recent rises"....you gotta stay ahead of the "current/recent past stuff/moves", yes ? Anticipate likelihoods, vs. reacting late, to what has BEEN happening, dig ? ....4) also, as I mentioned in previous NL's, notice how most Homebuilding Stocks have Fallen, even as their Companies announced higher/beat-the-street earnings....more proof that most "fundamentals" still mean nothing, future-stock-price-predictive-wise.... 5) last, continuing the trend I was the first/only to predict, more "mergers/takeovers" are occuring at prices well BELOW all-time highs, like, Aluminums, and, Mon., 23 rd, two Utilities (CPL, FPC) merged.... 6) answering some appreciated questions from sharp subscribers, yes, for a scalp only, that many Internets and Online Broker stocks has reached predicted, expected S.T. support, meant some WERE/ARE buys, near recent lows only, with close stops below recent lows, so I added a few in section (6) below....good luck...as usual, don't get emotional or attached....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper comments from the
Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) in their everlasting search for more great market commentary, Fri. 20 th, they had Regis Philbin, at 10:00 am, say, to his recent losses, "I just don't understand why Dell and AOL crumbled so fast..." That's right, guy, you DON'T understand....have me on your show, and I will help your millions of viewers.... 2) CNBC's Joe Kernan, Fri., after the close, highlighted our "UVN" (a potential put), saying, "this is getting exciting".... meaning, watch out.... 3) Mon. 23 rd, 8:35 am, CNBC's Ted David said, "Wall St. is in rally mode, ahead of the Fed possibly raising interest rates....go figure...." If he read my NL, he would know, what we know: that "assumed events" and "stock price moves" are NOT automatically "linked".... 4) CNBC's L. O'Brien, Mon. 23 rd, 9:45 am, said Lehman lowered its rating from "buy" to "outperform" on our "BRR" a put of ours....check it out....but L.B. actually said, "a really fine-looking chart, it has been going up nicely...." Excuse me ? did you LOOK at the chart you actually showed ? Plus, since when is an "outperfoming" rating, not a positve opinion ? Don't get me started....He also showed "XTO" as a supposedly-bullish chart....gee, I specifically gave you XTO, herein, around $ 5, remember ? when I also gave out many other depressed, hated Energy stocks back then....But at least he also showed "APA", another put of ours herein, as a warning, "because of the hurricane down there...." Perhaps the right opinion on the right stock, maybe, but certainly NOT the right "reason"....re-read my "Scenarios/linkages" booklet.... 5) L.A. Times, 8/22, front page column by Tom Petruno (who is quickly falling in my eyes), wrote, "the new watchword is value: investors are becoming more keen on the idea of hunting for companies where value can be realized..." Wow....what insight....As if millions of people, for decades, have never before desired to find stocks of undervalued companies....Duh....his conclusion: eschew all but the largest players in all I.G.'s....certainly not the best advice....but, I forgot: he's not a good "future-stock-price-predictive analyst with a long-term track record of excellent advice, is he....he has no risk, even if wrong, and no way to refute anything he says, to the detriment of many readers....such is life.... 6) but, on the same page, Tom Mulligan wrote a big article, pointing out how, generally, very, very Few of the massive/growing number of "mergers" of recent years' past, have given the created, bigger companies, any "pricing power"....According to him, this inability for them to then raise prices and greatly increase profits, after such mergers, even with cost-cutting and layoffs and increased market share, etc., would seem to go against basic Economics, yes ? Another reason why "chart/sentiment-pattern-watching" beats most all real or perceived fundamentals, in predicting S.T./intermediate-term future stock price moves....But, a good point you brought up, T.M., kudos....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments/announcements from "Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) exactly as I mentioned herein to look for, the "Semiconductor industry's 'book-to-bill-ratio' was disappointing, down -3.5 % from last year's period,announced, Fri. 20 th....some fundamentals, to confirm my technicals, yes ? But-- the technicals come/came first, right ? see section (7) below.... 2) Fri. 20 th, the Copper stocks I was first/only to give you herein near their lows, early 1999, when "all the experts" missed the bottom in the Cyclical stocks, CYM 18, AR 23+, got a takeover offer from PD....not a huge gain, but, once again, as taught, why didn't PD just buy those stocks lower ? We are so proud of being the first/only to have given the Cyclicals (alum., farm, metals, chem., etc.) to you at 1999 lows....Inco, given you herein at low, also made a new 2-year high.... 3) L.A. Times, last week, headline, "Clorox shares plummet on sales warning"....As I mentioned previously here, I gave you CLX as a successful put, from over 120+, Feb./Mar., and it already "plummeted" from 130 to 93, by June ....anyway, recently, it had already fallen from 118 to 100 again, BEFORE falling to 80....certainly Not worthy of a "plummet" at that point, ay ? P.S., an analyst said, "everybody was blindsided"....as usual.... 4) a rare mention for me: "CDN" has two decent Insider buys recently, guys who, back in Dec. '98, sold decently....check its chart out past year....may still be too soon, technically, but watching....so, NO formal opinion from me yet....conversly, insiders at our "ORCL" have been selling near resistance, see it ? ...5) CNBC, Mon. 23 rd, had pres. of "SEBL", another pot. put of ours, glowing report, saying, "it is the fastest-growing or the fastest-growing" companies in its I.G., which, with its STOCK not breaking out any more, may be famous-last-words....we shall see.... For the umpteenth time, such interviews are NEVER Given near the lows, right ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) semi-shame on you, F. Barbera, KWHY-tv: Fri. 10 am, he showed chart of "DNB" as a past H & S top formation....which is fine, except, he only showed it well after its fall, and never predicted its top nor decline, etc. up there, which would have been much more helpful.... 2) Thu. 19th, F. Barbera also showed now-depresed charts of ABTL, UBID, ONSL, IVIL, saying, now, "it's hard for anyone to stick with these stocks after such declines ...." WRONG, guy....the fact is, that, historically, the vast majority of losers who bought these high in stage 4, then held without stops all the way down, WILL continue to "stick in them"....that's how bases form ! geez....Hey, I have offered to help you, but you treated me with disdain.... 3) recent issue, Global Insights (pitch-and-dump missive, don't get me started), said, "according to an Ernst & Young report, the single most pressing issue facing magazine publishers in new media is revenue generation." Wow, what insight.... 4)
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
puts AMAT (78 to 64-) for VVQ 111% G....bal. puts FMX (42+ to 33) for Q 111% G....stock HIV (1 7/8 to 3 1/2) for Q 85% Gain.....bal. calls DSL (19 to 23) for 85% G....1/2 pos. puts ASD (48+ to 41) for 75% G....puts IIN (40+ to 35) for 85% G....1/2 pos. puts ALD (68- to 62) for Q 75% G....css LC (54- to 48+) for 20% G...
and/but, longs, none, and, puts, MBK, MNMD, ALSC, BGEN, RFMD, SDLI, AXP, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio. (of interest, many "minor new highs" smacks of "fakeout breakouts" again ? but, in the last year or two, I have not been VG with such issues), and/but, too many Very small losses all of a sudden....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) CSR @ 21+, 1/2 pos. GPC @ 29, 1/2 pos. HRC @ 9 9/16, 1/2 pos. NHC @ 6-, OMM @ 2, PDG @ 10+, "the DJ. Util. Avg. @ 310" (at its 200 DMA, a swing trade for your learning benefit),
* note: last time's listing of "1/2 pos. in the D.J. Industrial Avg. itself" @ 1177", was, obviously, just a mistake....but you knew that....it should not have even been in there....weird....
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) AAM @ 1 5/16, ALI. @ 10++, ATV @ 1 1/4, AVM @ 3+, BBC @ 15 1/8, BMG @ 1 13/16, CAU @ 0.16, CCH @ 0.28, CNS @ 16-, DAY @ 0.065, GRERF @ 1/8, HEC @ 1 3/4, IOM @ 3 11/16, KRY @ 9/16, MCL @ 8+, MSN @ 9/16, RAH @ 16 1/8, S. @ 40, TOY @ 15.06, UQM @ 4+, VGZ, WTT @ 1 3/4....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, NHP, VCR, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AHC @ 65-, 1/2 pos. BRCD @ 175++, CDCO @ 12--, DST @ 69+, ECP @ 42+, EFII. @ 58++, EQT @ 38-, FTS @ 38+, GRL @ 48-, 1/2 pos. JNPR @ 224-, KING @ 28+, PCS @ 60-, RDC @ 19+, STJ @ 38+,
"Repeats": (note, more here, dig ?) ADVS @ 48, BA @ 46+, BRR @ 38+, CLS @ 46+, CNXT @ 70-, DSCP @ 34+, DSPG @ 42-, FAST @ 58-, GPSI. @ 46+, KLAC @ 69, MRL @ 17-, NXTL @ 59++, ORCL @ 39+, OTRKB @ 38-, P. @ 53-, PERC @ 51, PLX @ 20-, ROK @ 62-, SII. @ 48+, TOM @ 41-, WFT @ 39, WGR @ 16+,
note, my Puts list is still expanding....
and/but, took, QCOM, MEDQ, FRTE, AYE, AFFX, JNY, GCI, IP, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list.... VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", RXSD, NWK, AEP, LTV, CPU, ASO, IT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, FON, HAN, DDS, CAKE, CNI, PVY, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
HIV 3 7/8 up 1 3/8 (sos), CAU .09 up .03, ALI. 12 5/8 up 2 1/4, SGE 9 3/8 up 1 5/8, "the DJ Util. Avg." 319+ up 9+, GLB 17 5/8, BDS 4 3/4 (sos), BGO 3/4, AVM 4 1/8, RAH 16 7/8, KSE 28 3/4, MAN 27, IO. 8 7/8, MCL 9, TPS 1 3/8, higher still, since last time here....also, CYM 18, AR 23+, CDT 24, CFK 5-, MWY 14-, FLC 13, GOU, higher still....each given you herein near their lows....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or bounces off pullbacks: TPS 1 1/4 up 3/8, CDE 4 5/8 up 3/8, RLC 11 1/2 up 1, S. 41 1/4 up 1 3/8, TKR 18 3/8 up 3/4, NEM 20 5/8, AVM 3 1/2, CSR 22 1/4 up 1, GISH 3, LDW, HOC 15, CB, NPK, UQM, IOM, CNS, SAMC, PMD, RPM, PLC, NPSI., IO., IDC, MTSI. 16 1/4, NPRO, CPQ, HEC, IFMX, FWC, APFC, WTT, SHO, TMD, HOC, TBP, IHK, RAD, PFC, CCC, FNL, TXB, UFC, MSN, CCH, S., OJ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) TMD 7 3/8, 7 7/8, LDW, UFC, WTT, TSC, NEM, IHK, CB, AVM, HCM, HIV, TXB, SSC, OMM, CAU, IO., MSN....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
WFT -3 1/2, DRTE -3 1/2, FDC -2 1/2, ARBA -2, OTRKB -1, EFII. -1, KLAC -1, DSPG -1, CCBL -1 (sow), ROI/A -1, MRL -1, DST -1, FTS -1, IMNX, BA, LIT, IIN (S), PWAV, AMAT (S), FULL, VTSS, FMC, ECL....also, MTP 30-, DRI. 18, BDY 17, UHS 34, CNMD 28, CXR, LTD, T., NA 36, TR 33, lower, still....and, CXR, AMAT, approached their 200 DMA (S)....and, PLCE, DY, fell to their 200 DMA (S)....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
and, 3, new, emerging groups: "Medical/Hospital", "Athletics/Shoes" soon ? and, some "Utilities", and "Brokers/Online", have V.S.T. bottoms....also, added more depressed Golds below....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, GV, RXSD, ADSK, EPAY, CATP, FC, GPC, HWD, RAH, USI, to, ESOL, TSA, S., STK, FAF, ALI., PLC, TKR, TSC, BDS, HM, MCK, CKP, UNA, RPM, NCT, MCL, LWN, IHS, GLB, WRE, OMM, LTV, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats": add, RBK, REL, SKX, SWK, NETA, LNCR, ABF, AND, CBJ, DMI, ECO, TOY, USB, BMG, GFD, IBC, BFO, MTC, HCR, MCK, HMA, HRS, SGI, WMX, TMK, SRV, PDG, JM, TE, FTL, STE, FTU, AGE, CSG, NSC, APM, to, AAM, CWC, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, IO., MSN, VDC, SAMC, SCY, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, NEON, FWC, NHC, KSE, RHI., CNS, HRC, PMS, NITE, AGE, DPH, to, IHK, CYB, FNL, PMD, TW, NCT, ORB, VL, AVM, ONX, SHO, LDW, HLX, HEC, NPSI., PSFT, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list.... They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Semiconductors: AMCC, MCHP, KLAC, TER, QLGC, ESST, etc.
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: IMNX, MEDQ, PERC, VISX, DSCP, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: CNXT, UVN, DSPG, PCS, etc.
Energy, Services: TOT, WFT, WGR, P., BRR, MRL, etc.
BUT --- Paper-related: KMB, MEA, WLL, GP, etc., must weaken soon or else....
other "Techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below here....
also note, I have removed most Retail, and Financials, from pot. put list recently....
keep in mind, I am still looking for many extended Techs, Retails, Energies, etc., to form broader tops after rallies....
**** others, and new ones: many more added, AHAA, BRCD, BVSN, DST, NTAP, FLM, CDCO, CMOS, EUSA, FLEX, JMED, MUSE, KING, KOPN, UCOMA, CMTN, USM, AHC, APA, KSS, BHI, CCU, GRL, GDT, EQT, MIL, PVY, TXN, WJ, STM, STJ, HAE, MTX, FTS, ECP, CDI, RDC, DOX, SU, HH, BC, to, ADVS, AGY, ARBA, BA, DSPG, FULL, GALT, GP, GSTRF, IP, LVCI, PVY, PWAV, QGENF, VISX, VRSN, VTSS, WLL, BBRC, BEM, SEIC, BRR, DD, EMC, FMC, FDS, KMB, LZ, MEA, PEB, SNT, DSCP, EXDS, HLIT, HWP, OTRKB, PCS, RSC, SJI., SNPS, TUP, ACS, ADRX, CAKE, CHRW, EFII, EMLX, FCX/A, GE, HAN, KWP, MCRL, NT, ORCL, PB, PKY, SUI, JNPR, RNWK, ROI.A, ALGX, GPSI, SFX, in recent NL's, and,
("repeats") ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, PKS, VTEL, VRTY....
but, note, some of the above have already pulled back off highs, so one wants only to Put them, if at all, into rallies, yes ? but, it IS a long list, yes ? don't fight the tape....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: adding, "Paper", "Publishing", "Banks, on strength only", to, Machy./Cap. Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given all the good stuff above, and lately, no need for a special lesson today....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....