Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, issue # 207+ ended.....(but this NL is Not really being published formally, publically, any more), dated: 9:30 am, PST, Friday, August 25, 2000

Important Note: this "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to gestapo, uncaring, and ridiculous, illogical, NASD and SEC rules, and the uncaring and thoughtless nature of the brokerage firm with which I am currently associated....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

I don't know anyone who has done very well for months now....do you ? didn't think so.... interesting, huh....still, one of the roughest periods I have experienced in 20+ years....still, I like most of the longside and putside patterns/ideas herein in sec. (3)....and (6) and (7)....gotta stay with the conept, L.T., and not deviate, and even add $ after rough periods, as you have been taught, and as you have seen works well, yes ? Logic, historical patterns, and strength, beats overreaction, emotionalism, and premature quitting....

I.I. now has the lowest bullish % of NL writers, 43.5 %, since earlier 2000....not low enuf to warrant huge contrary bullishness, but may be getting there, after further declines, as you have seen my mediocre performance in the last 3 months longside....

Even with QSL's, we are getting some nice bounces among our depr. Techs for you....and some drops among our sec. (7) ideas as well...so a properly diversified portfolio should be hanging in nicely....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) with normal disclaimers, let's see if fundamentals work, on MPS, an EVB with a possible spin-off, and a poss. IPO as well, upcoming the next several months....certainly worth more than as is....but, technically, not ready yet ? ....2) note pops among hated, depr. Retailers, Clothing, merchandise, like, JCP, DDS, KM, LE, BKS, maybe COST ?, etc., as usual, I will be among the first, for you.... 3) obviously, the cheapie Golds broke, no biggie, but does mean NOT to expect huge pops in Gold.... 4) note the new high for the T-bond at 100 and 18/32...but I still say many Banks and Finl. stocks topping S.T. - remember, I was first/only to have shorted them at last highs, last year, and also going long after drops near lows for you herein before recent rises, yes ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) headline, L.A.T., 8/21, "Bush Speech Buoys Def./Aero. Stocks", late, as usual, dig ? showing an index already up +25 %....hmmm, where were they when Igave them out as buys near lows for you herein ? Oh, yeah, they published negative articles, right ? the pattern rarely changes....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) more proof, as I was the first: Thu., it was ann. that 'durable goods orders' in the USA were down - 12 % from last years' period.... while mostly Airplanes, most all other categories of such orders were down as well, illustrating more of an economic slowdown, as expected.... 2) the pattern rarely changes: I mentioned EMLX in a depr. base herein, when EMLX was in the mid-40's, and to a guy in my Yoga class who wanted a local stock....of course, this was a guy who has very little experience, and has never done well in the market (God forbid he would let me be his broker, but I digress), who had been all excited after its previous parabolic rise, which I recanted herein earlier.... anyway, only after it had risen from $ 45 to 70 or so, did he decide to buy it (get it ?), and, today, of course, failing to take profits into its latest parabolic pop, EMLX 113, to 46, to 65, just today....its partner, QLGC, fell from 110 to 78....one day....by waiting and buying above the base, he failed to make money....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) as I was first to predicttheir drops off parabolic highs herin for you, only now, does PWJ finally say, Wed., CNBC, 8:33 am, it is considering downgrading the Intl. Foreign telecom stocks -- already down - 33 to - 55 %....the pattern rarely changes.... 2) L.A.T. 8/22, headline, "Y2K's volatility upending many prof. mkt. timers", as I said, this has been a ridiculously difficult year for pattern (non)fulfillment....Michael Burke of I.I., said this has been a 'real different kind of year, wh=ith indicators not working as they should have been', etc. Acknowledging he has also been whipsawed big-time, I give him credit for doing so. And the overrated Fabian, is down - 13 % so far in 2000....Another underperforming NL guy said, "the NASDAQ chart is a mess", and the article said that Bollinger bands, Candlestick charts, Momentum measures, and McLellan Osc. have not done well at predicting swings in 2000 so far....interestingly, a few timers who had been lousy for years, prior to 2000, have done better this year -- but we don't know if that is a blip or a trend....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) massive hypoicrisy, Clinton supposedly introducing a bill to "prevent Elec. Utilities from abusing their market power", when, in fact, stupid govt. regulatory laws have caused this problem, dig ? jerks....allied, Janet Reno (don't get me started) "decided not to pursue allegations of campaign shenanigans by current pres. candidate Gore in 1996"...gee, I wonder why not....see why I detest most all things politics ? ....2) where is the SEC ? recent BS commercial on CNBC for W.O.W.S. software, has a guy saying, "it tells me exactly to the minute where the tops and bottoms are in the market so I can get in and out at the best prices of the day".....yikes....and they allow this ? amazing, huh....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

1/2 pos. DCLK (31- to 44++) for VVVVQ 150% G....1/2 pos. calls STK (11 to 15+) for Q 150% G....bal. calls HLIT (22+ to 29) for VQ 125% Gain....1/2 pos. calls GT (20 to 25-) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. puts MACR (90- to 63+) for 125% G....bal. calls WR (15++ to 19++) for 100% G....1/2 pos. puts HSII (73- to 58+) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. calls PUMA (17++ to 23-) for VVVQ 125% G....bal. puts QLTI (76+ to 65-) for 50% G....bal. puts MDT (56+ to 49) for VVQ 66% G....bal. calls CMB (47 to 54) for 66% G....1/2 pos. calls R. (18+ to 21+) for 50% G....bal. puts AHP (60 to 54) for Q 44% G....

and/but, longs, 1/2 pos. LOR (8 to 5 to 7+), RAZF, CCH, CKP, PAP, ABF ?!, MPS !!, FMT, ny HEC, CBJ, and, puts, JNPR, IWOV, AHC, ARBA, BRCD, PWER ?, PLCM ?, ADRX, ORCL ?, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still way too many QSL's....rare....recent....got whipsawed out of COVD, GLGC, DSCM....oy....
and, are/were BRCD, CMB, CPQ, PWER, PLCM, ADRX, others, going to end up being "fobo's" ?

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs): **** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. JCP @ 15 1/4, 1/2 pos. LE @ 26+, 1/2 pos. TRRA @ 33+, 1/2 pos. VZ @ 40+,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ABF no, ACK @ 15++, AMI. @ 1 3/8, ARG @ 5++, ASA @ 15+, ASL @ 1 1/2, BD @ 4-, BEOS @ 4 1/8, BKS @ 17, BYD @ 4 3/8, CPB 26-, CSCQ @ 3 7/8, DCLK @ 31-, DROOY @ 15/16, GLT @ 10 1/8, GON @ 15++, GPC @ 20+, HEC no ?, ICGE @ 30+, IOM @ 3+, JBOH @ 4+, KM @ 6 7/8, LRW @ 4 ?, MAT @ 10+, MDR @ 7++, MMG @ 4, MPS no ?, NOW @ 1/2, PLC @ 1.18, PZN 2 1/8, RAD no ?, SIEB @ 7+, SRR @ 6-, TRN @ 18++, TWA @ 2+, TWR @ 11++, USL @ 4 3/8, USU @ 4 1/8, WAB @ 9++, WGO @ 12++, WMO @ 8++...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, RAZF, HMY, DL, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops....note this list growing, dig ?

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. APA @ 62-, CHKP @ 133, 1/2 pos. DLJ @ 61++, 1/2 pos. GS @ 120-, HSE @ 32, 1/2 pos. LEH @ 135+, 1/2 pos. PMCS @ 226, 1/2 pos. SEBL @ 180-, 1/2 pos. STT @ 116,

"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') ADI. @ 98-, 1/2 pos. AIG @ 87, GENZ @ 72, IDPH @ 138+, INFA @ 90, IVV @ 150+, MANU @ 64-, MGG @ 34++, MYGN @ 162, NEWP @ 129, ORCL ny ?, PDS @ 39+, PLCM ?, PWER @ 160 no....

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, ATON, WAT, AMCC, PDE, MXIM, BSTE, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).... remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", SWC, DDS, CNF, TJX, N, HTV, TFS, MT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, FLEX, GSPN, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
STK 15.56 up 2.12, DCLK 47 up 14 3/8, GSTRF 10.56 up 1.43, PMTC 13 3/8 up 1 3/8, ICGE 33.68 up 2.87, PUMA 23.59 up 1.84, CMB 54 7/8 up 2 1/8, NITE 30 3/4, XDSL 8 1/8 up 1/2, VZ 41 7/8 up 1 5/8, LE 27 3/4 up 1 1/4, TRRA 34 3/4 up 2, ISLD 29.81 up 1, AOL 60.43 up 2.93, DPH 16 5/8, JCP 15 3/4, CNS 14 5/8, GT 25.06, NETA 22, TRN 19.56, EFII. 26 1/8, ENTU 27.31, GSTRF 9 5/8, WMO 8.81, ARG 6 3/4, ISLD 29 1/8, ZMBA 5 3/4, 6 13/32, higher since last time here....and, OO. 16+, higher still....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
CORL 3.09, 3.75, BEOS 4.35, 4.84, KM 7 1/2 up 1/2, BKS 17.50 up 0.56, PUMA 20.93, TLK 6 7/8, MPS 7 1/4, NITE 29, DCLK 43, ICGE, TWR 12 1/8, GT 23.56, DPH 15.81, HMK 4 7/8, HA, MDR 7 1/2, PDG 8.56, WGO 13, LE 27-, KIDE 19 3/8, 21 3/8, MUEI. 11.81, 11.12, XDSL 7.18, UPM 27-, ISLD 28 1/2, NOVL 11.21, BYD, PDG 9 1/8, SRR, RHAT, DPH 16 5/8, CSCQ 4.18, 4.50, 3.81, PZN, ESR, DCX, ACK, USU, LZB, HOV, SEV, PHC, CPB, FILE, OHI, HDG, IOM, CCC, ASHW, WYN 2, IP 31.18, 32.31, ACI, OCN, TSO, NOW, TWA, AZC, MLG, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:

(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) VNWK 6- oy, R. 19 3/8 dn 2, MPS 6.93, BKS, STEI. 2 1/2, LRW, ENTU 26 1/4, BCC 27 7/8, GY, RAD 4, ALDN, NETO 2 3/4, WGO, LOR 7.43, 6.87, 7.81, USU, CDNW, HEC, GEN, MLG, TSO, ACK, CPB, TWA, TGX, ABF, BKS, RAD, FWC, ASL, HRC, CMH, NOW, UPM, SRR....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out:
PMCS -9, WAT -4, LEH -4, ATON -3 1/2 (S), GENZ -3, MACR -4 cowo, QLTI. -4 (S), SEBL -3 1/2, CHKP -3, AIG -3, ORCL -2 1/2, ADI. -2 1/2, DLJ -2, APA -1 3/4, GS -1 1/2, MANU -1 1/4, MGG, SYK -2, PDS -1, LEH -2, lower, since last NL here....while, QLTI. approached its 200 DMA....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
: PWER +14, -6, MACR +2, -2, MANU +3, -1 1/2, NETE -6, IDPH +5, GRP, INFA +3, -4, PLCM +11, MYGN +5, -6, NEWP, TBH +1 1/2, PMCS +5, ORCL +3 1/2, SYK +2....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


Health-relateds (HDG, ALI, OHI, TGX, BSX, RX, HRC, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, ALI, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, etc.)
Retails/Apparel (ASHW, CNS, BCF, JCP, KM, DDS, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (GT, DPH, BD, GPC, TWR, DCX, WAB, TWA, HMK, HRZ, ABF ?, TRN, WGO, etc.)
* plus, some "Leisure" names, Waste (HB, USL, ESR), still o.k.
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious" (USU, ABX, ASA, BMG, DROOY, CBJ ?, etc.), Housing (WYN, LZB, CMH, CN, ACK, WGO, etc.), Paper ? (GLT, IP, BCC, GP, WMO, etc.), Food (IGL, CPB, GXY, etc.), Prisons (CSCQ, PZN, etc.), Banks (opbo), Travel, Aero./Def., Catalog/Mail Order, Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., and Precious Metals, Industries....

"busted techs" (CDNW, NOW, FILE, ASKJ, KIDE, DCLK, AMZN tln, MRCH, ATYT, ICGE, ESPI, RHAT, PUMA, IBIS, ENTU, those below, soon ?) maybe, as with Y2K stocks a while ago off their 'hated bottom", some 'busted Internets', etc., in potential bases/EVB's, "D.B.'s", ahead, etc. ?

and, since I gave you so many other depressed 'L.T. old-economy' stocks, here are more ahead ? : IR, HON, PPG, TRN, KM, PRD, AM, CNF, MAT, LZ, ADM, from lists herein....
and, Online Brokers ?(SIEB, JBOH, EGRP, DIR, ISLD)

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

add, ITW, VZ, INAI, ALGX, FDO, CPWR, MXM, RBC, XLA, AMI, SLS ?, BLM ?, LE, UAL, MT, FFD, WMO, WIN, SCNT ?, FND ?, QSC ?, TMP, ISLD, TRRA ?, BSX, CERG ?, to, XDSL, NETA, HON, IR, PPG, STE, TRN, UCR, TFS, AU, AVA ?, BKS, MMR, MAI. ?, LZ ?, JS ?, JDN, FCX, CC, CTS, TJX, CNF, CTB, AVR, to, CD, MAT, CKP, MTP, DELL, RADN, SRR, FBN, ITB, GON, NTN, PLC, STB, OPI, WIX, BTO, to, SQM, TGC, ESPI, KEA, AAI, GSTRF, RLC, IKN, UB, BMC, PHC, PER, SWM, USV, WPO, JBM, IOM, USM, PRD, HEC, SUB, MMG, ATX, CORL, IHK, TLK, ADM ?, MDG, HRC, PII, FSW, SRR, CTO, HNV, GLC, XCL, SRS, TSO, PZN, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....

'total return potential/yield-plus' section: FMT, GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, JDN....

and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been removed:

* add, PDS, LEH, HSE, MRK, MGG, XLNX, FLEX, EXBD ?, AIG, PSEM, PMCS, IVV, ORCL ?, RATL, INTC, EMBT, ANEN, GS, DLJ, to, ADI, BSTE, CHKP, GENZ, IDPH, ACAI, CELG, GSPN, NMSS, PLCM ?, RNBO, SEBL, AHP, STT, FII. ?, GELX, HSII, INFA, NETE, MYGN, ONIS, VICR, BRL, KO, to,

(repeats) JDSU, DFXI, BVF, FEI, ELF, EVER, IONA, TIBX, IEX, ELNT, RSYS, PFE, CHKP, MLNM, AGN, NDN, CDIS, MRK, from recent past NL's....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES