1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
I still think many Extended stocks are cruisin' for a bruisin' again, not too far ahead (some are already occuring, of course)....I am going to call this, a coming "surprise hatchet job", to get the non-bears more bearish, hurt more mostly-long daytraders, turn sentiment more bearish, and provide an exclamation point to the economic/R.E. top I have been the first/only to suggest....Of course, this begins to sound like a little "scenario", and I still see some longside buys, which, as/but I also have been saying, just do not look as great as they might look after further declines ....And, we do not get roped into fixed scenarios, remaining flexible if wrong.... Sure, a small number of already-extended stocks are making minor new highs, in rare patterns, but most extendeds are just bouncing off support from recent predicted stage 4, 5, and 6 declines, and/or having potential 'fakeout breakouts' to sucker people in near the highs, and, as I said, the vast majority are NOT going to new highs, or even close....Also note, tons more Puts added in section (7) below, including more "Index puts"....what does THAT tell you ?

I have tried to be as clear and sharing with you, about how, this "split market" provides continuing opportunites, upside and downside....If one steps back to gain perspective, things are still pretty-much onfolding as expected/predicted: the Bond bottoming, as "the 95 %" began to get bearish forever, big drops among Internets/Brokers, Metals bottoming and bouncing, Energies topping, continuing I.G. rotation, etc. Meanwhile, F. Barbera, KWHY-tv, after the close Fri., 27 th, showed how the NYSE's A/D ratio just made a new L.T. low, and is now back down to its Nov. 1996 level, and the NASDAQ's A/D ratio, new low, is back down to its Feb. 1991 level....wow....doesn't tell the whole story, but does tell a lot, ay ?

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by Ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) was I the first/only to call the recent double-top in the Nikkei. index ? so far, so good.... 2) see item 'c) 3)' below, more Semis topping ? ....3) there is too much parabolic super-bullishness among the Pokemon/Toy stocks, so, perhaps, affecting 'TOY' here....no biggie, close stop.... 4) the T-bond is pulling back, but still within its base, and the Banks, Finl., stocks falling as predicted here first....most have farther to go....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Thu. 26 th, 1:06 pm, CNBC's Allan Chernoff, said, "all the money mgrs. I spoke with now feel it is once again safe to buy PE/high-valuation tech. stocks, now that the T-bond yield is back down...." adding, "today seems like a pause to refresh, before the market climbs higher...." (a quote, gang) Wow....famous last words, sentiment-wise ? ....2) Wed., 26 th, L.A. Times headline, "Bond Yields Tumble as Dow Again hits Record" --- maybe, but NO other index, and tons of stocks, are NOT anywhere near all-time highs, right ? showing a misleading graph only since last Dec. '98, with the title, "Round Trip ?", implying their opinion that yields would wasily fall back to 5 % or so....NOT likely....they also incorrectly wrote, "bond yields tumble"....Gee, how is just a 0.35 % drop, a "tumble" ? and, "the NASDAQ surged 1.9 % in the latest euphoria...." Excuse me ? "surged" ? "euphoria" ? exactly where is that ? ....3) CNBC's B. O'Brien, Mon. 30 th, 9:45 am, highlighted the "Financials/Credit" stocks, after they have already fallen (as I was the first/only to have predicted for you herein at their tops) as usual, saying, they may have trouble ahead with overextended credit card customers....and that many flush consumers may already have the big-ticket items they wished for by now....O.K., but, why did they not say those things near their stock tops ? He showed 3 which I specifically gave you herein as puts back then: KRB, COF, PVN (I also gave you CKFR and FDC near their tops herein, in that I.G.) ....Note their S.T. extended little rolling tops, then initial drops to their 200 DMA's, and, now, stage 6 drops below stage 5 lows, dig ? See it ? Learning ?

c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments/announcements from "Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) with recent not unexpected drop in "Dave & Busters" stock, we see the latest example of how Wall St. and the Media overexcite the masses on companies in that I.G., near their tops ....2) Fri. 27 th, 11;25 am, CNBC fund guy loves "BVSN", a pot. put of ours, saying, "50 % of their biz is repeat customers....that's gotta be a sign of a great stock here...." Gee, that's it ? just "repeat customers" ? what if they have fewer "new" customers forward ? and, gee, tons of good companies who also get many repeat customers, have nevertheless had their stocks form stage 4 tops and fall, historically, yes ? so, we'll fade this guy, as usual, into the parabolic chart, dig ? ....3) Ticker magazine, late Aug. issue, "Chip stocks show signs of life"....well, another beautiful, late as usual, top sign ? Their favorite: STM, a recent puttable for us herein....in another magazine section, their "america's fastest growing companies" recommendations, gave out, APA, POWI, also on my put list....with their track record, I'll fade their ideas in stage 4 anytime.... 4) CNBC interviewed Craig Columbus, from Primark, as usual, Mon. 30 th, 9:25 am, for "insider" activity, and, he actually said, "insiders are buying 'HCC'....As you can see, it is Not a good-looking chart....but, they are buying near the bottom here...." See how "the 95 %" view technical chart patterns ? No wonder they know not....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Thu. after the close, KWHY-tv, F. Barbera showed that "bullish %" opinions on the Oil Service stocks, had hit 75 % when I was first/only to have given them out as Puts herein....but, Mr. B. did not show this, WHEN those stocks were topping ! only after the fact....he's been doing this more, lately, which I think is Not a good sign....but he did save face, by showing cash Cotton, which recently had only 7 % bullish rating (meaning, possible S.T. bottom, right ?).... 2) Bob Morrow, of the High Tech growth Forecaster NL, on KWHY-tv, 12:15 pm, Thu. 26 th, gave out a list of stocks he likes --- with not one "high-tech-growth" name on his list....all extended blue chips, consumer, bells, etc. (except MSFT up here)....weird, huh....where's the "high tech growth" in those ? I don't know his L.T. record, but, gosh, if you're gonna have a NL with that title, at least give those out, yes ? BTW, he said he never goes short in any way....'nuff said.... 3) Fri., Merrill's 'L.T. major bear', Chuck Clough, announced his retirement....similar to how 'semi-perma-bears' Michael Metz, Oppen., and David Schulman, Salomon, did, in recent years....I say, as you know, we ARE in for a "surprise bigger correction" still, soon, because the times when these previous 2 bears retired, marked toppy areas, dig ?

4) Fri. 27 th, 10 am, CNBC's Tom Costello highlighted TLAB, with Lehman, and S & P giving new super buy opinions, and he added, "look at that bullish chart...." Oh, really ? Gee, as I tech in my booklets, many sources have been trying to "talk" this stock up lately, yet, it is having much trouble getting above 6/15 high, isn't it.....get it ? granted, its 200 DMA only 50, but certainly NOT a 'super-bullish chart'.... 5) Fri. 27 th, 10:20 am, Ralph Acampora, head technician at Prudential, on KWHY-tv, said, "there is a big diff. between summer of '98 and summer of '99", he remains very bullish, saying, "12,000 Dow here we come", and, "there is a floor under this market around 10,500"....his favorites: MMM, DIS, KO, AXP, MSFT, INTC, GTW, CSCO, LU....as you know, we tend to 'fade' him.... 6) also, in Ticker magazine, late Aug. issue: "Prudential's bull says market's momentum is full spead ahead", on July 6....Acampora said "the Russell 2000 has been moving higher...." (not really true), he loves the "Bells" (on my puttable list), and sees 13,000 Dow....and, "all we have to look forward to is strong earnings...." Gee, as S & P continues to lower their estimates....we shall see....

e) 1) we don't do 'fundamentals', but I gotta point out, that, Thu. 26 th, CNBC pointed out, that "2 nd quarter U.S. GDP growth" was slower than most all economists and govt. people and analysts expected/predicted....ditto, "personal income"....but, of course, exactly as I told you herein, as the first/only guy to predict, yes ? ....2) and, still more mostly NASDAQ companies' future earnings estimates are being lowered....dig ? watch out....

As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....