1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) are depr. Online Brokers, just beginning their rise, following the biggies ? re-read my 'IGR' booklet....as usual, I will end up being the first to like them.... 2) boy, was I, again, among the first/only to have given out a plethora of depr. Comp./Internet/Techs. herein, up a bunch since, ay ? glad to have helped.... 3) well, I certainly was the first to give out the depr. B2B stocks, like, FMKT, CMRC, etc., in low bases herein for you....Thu., CNBC said some B-firms now are beginning to like them again -- late, again, ay ? the pattern rarely changes.... 4) noticing pops among our depr. Golds ? are you in ? if not, why not ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) ignorant gal reporter CNBC, 1 pm, Tues., actually said, "interest rates are clonbing...." Huh ?.... 2) in an amazing example of how messed up The Finl. Media is, Wed., 7:30 am, CNBC gal reporter chose, among her "top news stories", a ridiculous baseball game event, with T.B. having several players ejected, vs. Boston -- made worse by the fact that she failed to mention that the Bos. pitcher almost threw a no-hitter, and a Bos. hitter almost hit for the cycle ! unbelieveable.... 3) PIsani, CNBC, Thu., asked, all day, "why is BBY dropping, with its eps up so much ? momentum traders are dumping this stock like crazy...." oh, yeah ? we'll see.... 4) L.A.T. 8/29 headline, "S & P nears new record, spurs hope", should be a warning ahead, yes ? All we hear/read is how "the 4th Q. is going to be much better, making everything right again...." what does that tell you ? ....5) Fri. 7:35, Pisani called "ALA": stock "indestructable", so watch out for that I.G., yes ? even though it does not have a rolling top at all yet....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) Wed., Philip Morris RAISED its 1/4-ly div., more proof of "PSYCLE sm" benefit, ay ? ....2) CNBC, Thu., finally said, "we are beginning to see signs of a slowdown in Retail sales across the board...." Interesting, as per the usual pattern, since most of their stocks are ALREADY down, yes ? ....3) those 2 lucky guys getting huge free undeserved puzzling exposure in the L.A.T., 8/29, hate "DK", which I amnow adding, of course, as a depr. Apparel longisde idea....they cite, "a glamorous name....too bad its stock is so unglamorous.... its subsidiary is wasting corp. $ leasing back to DK itself, in a licensing deal for royalties to Donna Karan's daughter, worthy of scandal....ludicrous....don't be folled by their seemingly low PE and valuation here around $ 6, DK has got trouble here...." Saying MER likes it ('accumulate'), these 2 guys also hated TOM at $ 7, dig ? ....4) Fri., the Chi. Purchasing Mgrs. Index fell below '50', confirming the rolling U.S. economic weakness I was the first to predict was coming a few months ago herein....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) Bollinger, CNBC, Tue. 12;25, showed 'badly inverted yield curve' in T-bonds, 'distorted', pointing to a likely economic slowdown but that "the YC concept has been dimished in usefulness by mitigating vehocles and circumstances"....meaning, what now ? he didn't say.... 2) two terribly wrong comments by Kevin Ellman, Lincoln Finl., on CNBC, Wed., 9:55 am, showing the ignorance and danger of guests and Media: first, he said, "it's very hard to make decisions emotionally...." when the exact opp. is true, then, "limit orders above & below, guarantee protection", ditto.... 3) a T. Rowe Price guy, CNBC, Thu., 7:44, said, as usual, "while, L.T., it will survive, QCOM stock will have some rocky times in the near term...." As usual, as per my "Scenarios" booklet you should re-read, he says now, what has just already occured, and will be wrong, forward....
5) as mentioned last time here, L.A.T. 8/29 headline, "Prudential analyst rare 'sell' rating sends WHR stock tumbling" ....citing that out of almost 900,000 ratings tracked in Y2K by Bloomberg, only 1.7 % are 'sell' ratings, once again, note this comes, as usual, LATE, ay ? with WHR already down from 75 to 40, dig ? thanks for nothing, thanks for losing thousands of people much money, right ? He says "the stock should cont. to fall for the foreseeable future"....well, you know what to watch for, "PSYCLE-wise", yes ? BTW, a great P.S.: they wrote, "the only other stock Pru. rates as a sale here, is LSON, at below $ 2....uh, guys, they actually loved it in late 1998 at -- get this -- $ 50 to 60....amazing, huh....and that MER only has 'sell' ratings on 1 out of every 450 stocks followed ....yikes....and that, of 28,000 analyst reports followed by First Call, only 34, S & P stocks, have current 'sell' opinions on them ! wow....last, of those, only WIN, KM, HM, have 2 'sell' opinions on them....gee, I like KM here, and maybe WIN ? and watching Hm already, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) hey, I am as not-crazy about MSFT as many people are, but, geez, a Calif. judge is now filing suit against them, actually saying they have "harmed Calif. consumers".... uh, excuse me ? I am stunned....ridiculous.... 2) re: recent EMLX fraud crook: evidently he orig. shorted 3K shs. at 72 to 82, but EMLX rose to 125 (with no stop, when it brokeout above 78, big paper loss, dig ? plus, he might have shorted more at its 120 resiatance, but did not), then it fell to 45, so he covered at 54, not really that big a gain....then BT. at 52, hit 103 again, he sold for Gain....not bad....but I ask, how could EMLX have fallen so fast anyway ? were there no buy orders on specialist books all the way down ? PAIR, Bid.com, LU, and now EMLX....and, he would have done much better in options, yes ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
1/2 pos. calls MUEI (10 to 14+) for 155% G....all calls NETA (19- to 26+) for VQ 144% Gain....1/2 pos. calls TRRA (33+ to 45-) for VVVQ 144% G....all stock SEV (1.18 to 3.00) for Q 144% G....bal. calls STK (11+ to 16-) for Q 100% G....all stk.on.mgn. CCC (6- to 9+) for L.T. 111% G....bal. calls CNS (11++ to 14) for 85% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. GSTRF (7++ to 10+) for 75% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TOM (7- to 11-) for Q 111% G....1/2 pos. puts MYGN (170- to 130+) for VQ 90% G....bal. calls AOL (51+ to 59) for VQ 66% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TCC (11+ to 14+) for 50% G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. FWC (6- to 8+ to 7) for L.T. VS % G....
and/but, longs, ALDN (13+ to 9 to 13+), JCP, TWR, CPB, MPS, HNV, CSCQ, NOW ?, and, puts, IDPH, ADI., SNC, AES, ORCL, IVV, LEH, RATL, GENZ, STT, CMB, ATON ?, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still too many recent QSL's....
and, once again, will, STT, ADI, IVV, etc., turn out to be 'fobo's ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AN @ 6 1/4, AZC @ 0.85, 1/2 pos. BLS @ 36-, 1/2 pos. CNF @ 24+, 1/2 pos. COST @ 33-, 1/2 pos. DK @ 6 1/8, 1/2 pos. DL @ 10, 1/2 pos. GP @ 26-, INAI. ?, 1/2 pos. KRY @ 1.31, 1/2 pos. MAT @ 10+, MEA @ 25 1/4, 1/2 pos. PPG @ 40, 1/2 pos. ROST @ 15, 1/2 pos. T @ 30+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ABF @ 14++, ABX @ 16-, ALDN @ 10-, AMI. @ 1.41, ASA @ 15+, ASL @ 1 1/2, BBI. no ?, BD @ 4-, BEOS @ 4 1/8, BKS @ 17, BLS @ 36 1/8, BYD @ 4 3/8, CHINA @ 15+, DCX @ 51+, DROOY @ 15/16, ENTU @ 25-, GLT @ 10 1/8, GON @ 15++, GPC @ 20+, HDG @ 1.00 ?, ICGE @ 30++, IOM @ 3+, ITW @ 56 eh, JBOH @ 4+, KM @ 6 7/8, LRW no, MAT @ 10+, MDR @ 7+, MMG @ 4-, NOW @ 0.40 ?, PLC @ 1.18, PZN 2.09, RAD @ 4 ?, REY @ 16+, SIEB @ 7+, SONE @ 16+, SRR @ 6-, TWA @ 2+ ?, USL @ 4 1/4, USU @ 4 1/8, WAB @ 9++, WGO @ 12++, WIN no ?, WMO @ 8++...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms ....or tops....note this list growing, dig ?
(new ones): 1/2 pos. AXP @ 59++, CHRT @ 87+, CPQ ?, DYN ?, ELNT @ 78, IRF @ 64+, LSCC ?, 1/2 pos. MRVC ?,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') AIG @ 90-, CAKE @ 35+, FEIC @ 32-, HSE @ 32, LLTC ?, MGG @ 34++, NT @ 83+....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).... remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", DIR, SSCC, GCR, DELL, BSX, VNTR, AKAM, LBRT, EX, CAU, TJX, SSCC, UCR, PBI, FCX, ORCT, OBJX, RADN, GLC, RBC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, MRK, FORR, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
lots more mostly Tech. winners for you:
SEV 3.12 up 1.12, CHINA 21.12 up 6.31, SIEB 9.81 up 2.37, ENTU 30 7/8 up 6 7/8, TOM 11 1/4 up 2 1/2 (S), SONE 20 1/4 up 3 3/4, AZC 1.06 up 0.19, COST 35.93 up 3, TSO 10.81 up 1.31, MUEI. 14.31 up 2, ICGE 37.75 up 6.81, FILE 19.93 up 3.31, NETA 27 up 3 3/4 (S), TRRA 46 up 9 3/4, RHAT 27 1/8 up 3 1/8, IKN 5.12 up 0.56, ASHW 5.93 up 0.56, PUMA 25 1/2 up 2, CPWR 11.00 up 1.12 - (S) 1/2 pos. os, NOVL 12 5/8 up 1, BLS 38 3/8 up 2 5/8, CCC 9 1/2 up 3/4 (S), MDR 8 3/8 up 3/4, BKS 18 1/8 up 7/8, GP 26.93 up 1.06, DPH 16.31, PMTC 14.31, WMO 9, LU 45.18, TRN 20, MAT 10 5/8, GON 17 3/4, AN 6 1/2, NOVL 12 3/4, REY 18 3/8, ROST 15 5/8, GLT 10.56, BEOS 4.90, MEA 26, CMH 8 7/8, MDG 6 7/8, higher since last time here....and, HLTH 18, GLGC 22, CMRC 64+, FMKT 82-, CMB 57-, even higher still....while, TOM, GM, AOL, approaching their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
HRC 6.37 up 0.81, IOM 4.43 up 1.06, NITE 28, 32 1/2, ISLD 28, 30 1/2, VZ 44.37 up 1.75, GEN 9.18 up 0.50, TGX 7, XDSL 6.93, ICGE 35-, ASA 16.93 up 1.06, ABX 16.50 up 0.81, then 15 7/8, GT, QCOM 62 up 4, AM 18.81 up 1, CORL, CAT 36.68, TRRA 43, DCX 51+, KM, HDG 1.00, BCC 30 up 1, HOV 7 1/4, GSTRF 9.25, 10.44 (S), SIEB 9, PUMA 23 5/8, LU 41 3/4, TLK, UPM 25 3/8, DCLK 43, 39-, TRN 19.18, ZMBA 5 3/4, DPH, HMK, HA, PDG 9.31 up 0.43, WGO, STK 16 (S), KIDE, BYD, PRD, SRR, RHAT, ESR, USU, LZB, PHC, OHI, WY, IP 32.31 up 1, OCN, NOW, NOVL, TWA, MLG, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) BBI. 9.50 up 0.69, ITW 56, WIN 13.56, VNWK 8 3/8, NOW 0.375, 0.50, R., STEI., LRW, BCC, MMG, GY, RAD, ALDN 13.56 up 3.75 (S), NETO 3.68, WGO, USL 4 1/4, HOV, USU, CDNW, DCX, GEN, MLG, TSO, TWA, TGX 7 3/8, ASL, HRC, NOW, UPM, SRR, TCC....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
SPW -5 1/2, GSPN -5, PDS -3, FEIC -3, IDPH -3, CHRT -3, IRF -3, HSII. -2, NT -1 1/2, PDS, HSE, lower, since last NL here....and, PDS approached its 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (HDG, ALI, OHI, TGX, BSX, RX, HRC, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, ALI, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, etc.)
Retails/Apparel/Mercahndise (ASHW, CNS, BCF, KM, DDS, BKS, ROST, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (GT, DPH, BD, GPC, TWR, DCX, WAB, TWA, HMK, HRZ, ABF, TRN, WGO, AN, etc.)
* plus, some "Leisure" names, Waste (HB, USL, ESR), still o.k.
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious" (USU, ABX, ASA, BMG, DROOY, CBJ ?, etc.), Housing (WYN, LZB, CMH, CN, WGO, USG, etc.), Paper ? (GLT, MEA, GCR, IP, BCC, GP, WMO, etc.), Prisons (CSCQ, PZN, etc.), Banks (opbo), Travel (opbo), Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., and Precious Metals, Industry Groups....
"busted techs" (CDNW, NOW, FILE, ASKJ, KIDE, AMZN tln, MRCH, ATYT, ICGE, CPWR, VNTR, ESPI, RHAT, PUMA, SONE, QCOM, ENTU, CHINA, those below ? but note, some are already up nicely)
and, since I gave you so many other depressed 'L.T. old-economy' stocks, here are more ahead ? : IR, HON, PPG, TRN, KM, PRD, AM, CNF, MAT, LZ, from lists herein....
and, Online Brokers ?(SIEB, JBOH, EGRP, DIR, ISLD)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
add, PKX ?, ROST, OBJX, T, IFF, IVIL, ORCT, LU, MEA, AKAM, CRDS, SONE, VNTR, FSW, NTN, GCR, WTT, PLC, NMC, BLS, CDO, BBI. no ?, G, DL, CBE, GTV, EX, MAH, REY, ITW, VZ, INAI, ALGX, FDO, MXM, USG, RBC, XLA, AMI, SLS ?, BLM ?, UAL, UIS, MT, FFD, WMO, FND ?, QSC ?, TMP, CERG ?, to, XDSL, HON, IR, PPG, STE, UCR, TFS, AU, AVA ?, BKS, MAI. ?, LZ ?, JS ?, JDN, FCX, CC, CTS, TJX, CNF, CTB, AVR, to, CD, MAT, MTP, DELL, RADN, FBN, ITB, GON, NTN, PLC, STB, OPI, WIX, IGL, BTO, SQM, TGC, ESPI, KEA, AAI, IKN, UB, BMC, PHC, PER, SWM, USV, WPO, JBM, IOM, USM, PRD, HEC, MMG, ATX, CORL, IHK, TLK, MDG, HRC, PII, FSW, SRR, CTO, GLC, XCL, SRS, TSO, PZN, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: FMT, GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, JDN....
and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, DYN ?, CPQ ?, AXP, AES, BSC, NT, MU, IRF, SDLI, LLTC, LSCC, MRVC, CAKE, BRCD ?, to, PDS, HSE, MRK, MGG, XLNX, EXBD ?, PSEM, EMBT, ANEN, GS, BSTE, ACAI, CELG, GSPN, NMSS, RNBO, PDE, FII. ?, ATON, GELX, NETE, ONIS, VICR, BRL, to,
(repeats) JDSU, DFXI, BVF, FEI, ELF, EVER, IONA, TIBX, IEX, ELNT, RSYS, PFE, MLNM, AGN, NDN, CDIS, MRK, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES