1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) I was considering the recent Paper stocks, which I was, again, the first/only to predict a top-and-drop in, as you know....gosh, it was so easy....they formed obvious little rolling tops, accompanied by massive puffing of them, bullishly, on CNBC, as I pointed out to you herein, yes ? what more would one want ? The Philly "FPP" ('forest/paper') index fell to its 200 DMA, on Tues. 31 st....hence some "put Gains sales" below....ditto, the Chem. stocks I was the first/only to give at their tops herein....also, recall, that I was the first/only to have given these, and other "cyclical stocks' as long Buys also, near their Lows, previously, yes ? Neat.... 2) note, in addition to the predicted double-top in the Nikkei. index, the cash "Yen" itself, shows similar pattern --- even as "the experts" went super-bullish near recent tops, right ? plus, L.A. Times, front page, 9/1, "U.S. Dollar slides to 7-month Low against the Resurgent Yen": see, again, as I taught you, how this headline comes out only AFTER the moves have already occured ? ....3) Conversely, the cash Soybean commodity chart looks higher, which accompanies the CRB index making new high....remember, when I was among the first/only to call for a "20-plus-year bottom" in the CRB, herein, early 1999, all the "experts" incorrectly said, "but, Jim, there will never be any more inflation, so why would anyone 'buy' the CRB index ?", yadda, yadda....But I pointed out, that "linking" that misbelief, to "commodity price moves" was wrong in itself.... my prediction was that it would rise to the 200 area, rememaer ? well, here it is.... 4) the "XCI." Philly Semi. index has a double-top now, see it ? catch it ? .....5) note, I added some "interest-sensitive" stocks as "scalp longs" here.... just as "the 95 %" and the Media, 'begin' to get/report bearish/ness....dig ? "they" only re-act to the 'past'....WE anticipate probable 'future' moves, based on long-existing, high-reliabiltiy patterns of Charts and reverse Sentiment, right ? ....6) also note, the T-Bond pulling back, as expected, still within its base formation, see it ? ....7) I did not predict it, but notice cash Copper has broken above a consolidation pattern.... 8) the DJ. Trans. Avg. makes new low, still, I do not like most of these stocks....remember, I was among the very few to give these out near their tops, as puttables herein....oh, and, so much for the "Dow Theory", as previously covered....one quickie lesson: whenever both Moving Averages (50 and 200 day) cross, as those on the DJTA did recently, that often signals a stage 5 or 6 decline....and the opposite, when the two MA's cross to the upside, often signals a stage 2 rise....perhaps I can elaborate on this in a future NL....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) all day Mon. 30 th, Finl. Media people are musing about yet another I.R. rise in Oct., by the Fed.... 2) Mon. 30 th, CNBC, 12:23 pm, mgr. of Firsthand Funds, loves "TQNT" up here, saying, 'it's not so obvious that it's a great stock...." Well, view it's 2-year chart....where was he near its low ? He also loves: NN, GALT, CS, OAK, CIEN, GNSS....well, GNSS and GALT are on my Put list, I gave out NN and CS and CIEN long near their lows herein, and OAK recently got whacked, and he liked it near high....next.... 3) just for your visual benefit: late, of course, CNBC's L. Bauman, Wed. 9:45 am, showed chart of 'DLIA' stock, which, while I had never heard of it, has made the entire up-and-down "PSYCLE sm" 7-stage trip, see its pattern ? He also showed ODP, similarly.... 4) CNBC's Michelle C. Cabrera, Wed., 10:33 am, misleadingly said, "Paper and Forest stocks continue to do very, very well today" (a quote, gang...huh ? "very, very well" ? I ask, which ? how ? where ? if anything, the opposite is true, right ?)....Papers were upgraded again by Paine Webber's analyst, whom she failed to point out, also loved these stocks near their recent highs, did not like them near their previous lows, and never had "stops" in the meantime....'nuff said....the pattern never changes.... 5) L.A. Times, 9/1, one front-page item, talked about "Asia's astonishing comeback" (very late, of course, after those stocks are already up, and, remember, last spring/summer the front pages warned of future "Asian contagion', right at the bottom)....and, another item, reported a recent poll showing that fewer Orange County firms plan to hire more workers --- I said Fewer --- a real shock to the unenlightened masses who do not get my NL....Both confirm my budding "economic top" signals....neat....right again....But, where are the rewards ? where are the kudos ? where is the Media exposure ? ....6) B. Griffith, CNBC, Thu., asked, "who said what, to cause today's stock declines ?" amazing ignorance, huh....Nice guy ? certainly....Market future-price-predicting knowledgable ? not.... 7) CNBC"s Bob Pisani, Thu. 2 nd, 9 am, finally pointed out what I was first/only to tell you herein, that more and more companies are warning of lower-then-expected earnings futures....I hoope a lot of people out there have saved their sheckels and have low debt....
c) more incorrect/improper/misleading Media comments/announcements from "Fundamentalists/Companies/newspapers/mags", etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinked stock prices moves, etc.: 1) Wed., I saw that H & R Block is merging with the Olde discount Broker firm....definitely a smart move for them, which should have been done years ago, as I suggested to some tax preparers, but was, as usual, ignored back then....However, this will also unleash a plethora more unqualified, unenlightened 'financial planners and pushing salespeople' on the public....it's bad enough that we already have many bad 'salespeople' in the Banking industry, and even many CPA's, giving investing/timing advice, with decent conflicts of interest, etc. ....2) L.A. Times, 8/30, article on how Intel is "seeking alternatives to the Rambus (RMBS) technology it has been supporting for memory chips....Interesting, since, first: when I gave RMBS as a put herein, in Dec. 1998, all the "experts" who are overpaid to supposed know such "fundamental things", said, RMBS had a 'permanent lock' on that business, remember ? And, second, in a good "PSYCLE sm" twist: after RMBS fell from 105 to 55, I even had a subscriber tell me he was "shorting it", because, he "was anticipating Intel searching for alternatives to RMBS" --- but, even though his 'fundamental analysis' was correct, RMBS, instead of 'falling on expected bad future fundamentals/news', Rose, from 55, to 117 again....I say RMBS may be forming a longer top up here....will watch how this one unfolds....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) super-bull R. Acampora, Tue. 31 st, said, Sears stock had broken a big support level....correct....I also see ATT ("T") breaking more, yet "the 95 %" continue to misbelieve that "the market is at all-time highs".... 2) as I previously mentioned herein, on Tue. 31 st, the SEC expressed reservations about the NYSE planning to going "public", offering stock, etc., saying, they will not be able to "police itself properly" once they fall under different rules....conflicts of interest abound.... 3) KWHY-tv's F. Barbera, Mon. after the close, suggested that the S & P index may have formed a head & shoulders top --- but kinda late, again....gosh, I hope he is not becoming less effective/helpful at his output, as his predecessor did big-time (So. Cal. people were eventually hurt badly, and his predecessor fled).... 4) following up on ODP and SPLS one more time, Tue. 31 st, two firms which were raving bulls near their highs, finally downgraded these stocks, CNBC, 9:35 am, late, as usual, one, "from a buy, to attractive, on SPLS" (what the heck does THAT mean ? So, let's see: it was a 'buy' at $ 35, with no protective stop, and, now, at $ 21, it is also as attractive ?), the other, for ODP, from a 'buy' at $ 25, to "acumulate" at $ 10. (ditto)....and these people get paid for that kind of useless output ? ....5) an interesting element, CNBC, Wed. 9:50 am, an otherwise-useless, ignorant Wheat First Union Bank V.P. gal (BTW, whenever you hear the words, "Bank" and "V.P." in the same title, run the other way, "market future-price-predictive-wise") said that, according to her studies (but she did not say how far back, a major faux pas), small cap stocks, on avg., rose only 45 days, or about 15 % of the time, during an avg. year....This is also true, historically, for Indexes, and other stocks, and commodities, as well...a long story I don't have time to fully explain herein....But, know, that, often, stocks "base" (get it ?) or "sit around", and, if one gets impatient, and quits prematurely, one tends to miss the majority of "moves"....re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet....also, any mutual fund co. can prove this to you, in materials they all have....
e) 1) in the latest in a long, long line of misleading Life Insurance commercials, the "avg. guy" in it, says, "if I didn't have my life insurance, I wouldn't be able to pay my bills"....Excuse me ? O.K., please do not hate me, but, in a much longer story, I was also expert at L.I., the first 10 years of my brokerage career, learning early on, how nasty "whole life" insurance was/is, and how dastardly most companies and promises were/are, within that industry....I got plenty of death threats, don't get me started....NO 'life insurance' can "help me pay my bulls".....where the heck do they come off putting that junk on the air ? They should be ashamed.... 2) in an allied story, Thu. 2 nd, CNBC, 9:50 am, the L.I. industry announced that "Term" insurance premiums may rise +10 % to + 40 % beginning next year, because there may not be enough $ reserves in the (private industry-wide) system to cover liabilities should more people die, etc. This is huge, and pretty bad for consumers, for many reasons, one being, that this proves, as I have been saying in recent years, that, generally, the companies offering those big pitches for "cheap term insurance" may have stretched themselves financially (which should be obvious, yes ? they gotta make 'some' money on the product, etc., or fail), and must, therefore, raise rates industry-wide, to regain their potential solvency....As usual, I blame the indurty and the Media, for promoting such activities without proper watchdogging....the industry is skewed towards ripping people off with 'whole' life insurance of course, and the Media just wants the advertising money, and cares not about the products involved, as usual, right ? BuLock in your Term rates, L.T., soon, if you can....
f) just FYI: L.A. Times, 8/30 front-page, article on "computer crime", reported that, in 1998, the Feds received 3,734 reported incidences of "computer crimes" --- but only 47 people were convicted of such crimes, and 10 others were acquitted....Great track record, ay ? Your tax dollars at work (not)....Asked to explain this, an interviewee said, "definitely law enforcement is getting better, in high-tech crime, but there are also too few of them (people in that enforcement field)."
g) L.A. Times, 8/30, "Edison's/DOE Solar Power project called a success, but will be Shut Down": wow....having used up its Federal funding, a huge solar power facility is being terminated, because the sponsors said it was "commerically viable but not immediately marketable" (huh ?)....I am not kidding....This plant generated energy to power 10,000 homes a day....gee, I recall hearing about how monooplies sometimes buy potentially competing companies/ideas/technologies, just to kill them, and I guess that is true....what a shame....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the
best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
puts IP (55+ to 47+) for VQ 80% Gain....1/2 pos. puts DD (72+ to 64-) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts PKS (40- to 33-) for Q 75% G....puts AT (74+ to 65+) for 80% G....bal. puts LZ (29+ to 26) for VQ 66% G....puts WLL (48+ to 40+) for VQ 90% G....puts TOM (38 to 41 to 33-) for 55% G....1/2 pos. puts ALD (67+ to 61+) for Q 66% G....css CDI. (34 to 26) for 44% G....1/2 pos. puts LIT (72- to 62) for 90% G....puts MEA (43+ to 38) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. stk. on. mgn. IDC (4+ to 6+) for Q 66% G....puts SEIC (102 to 92) for 66% G....
and/but, longs, TOY, WMI., S., bal. TXM (4+ to 6+ to 4+), and, puts, ALGX (60, 65, 57+), MCHP, FLEX, DRTE, HRL, CMVT ?, WGR, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio. (of interest, many "minor new highs" still smacks of "fakeout breakouts" again ? but, in the last year or two, I have not been VG with such types of issues anyway, as I have told you), and/but, too many Very small losses all of a sudden....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) BS @ 7 5/8, CASY @ , CHY @ 1 3/8, CPTH @ 32+, 1/2 pos. CPU @ 6-, CTK @ 8+, ECO @ 1.31, 1/2 pos. HCR @ 19++, 1/2 pos. LWN @ 11/16, 1/2 pos. MGL @ 8 5/8, 1/2 pos. MLG @ 8 9/16, NHC @ 6+, 1/2 pos. OCR @ 9 9/16, 1/2 pos. ONSL @ 14+, 1/2 pos. SYNX @ 2 3/8, 1/2 pos. USB @ 31-,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) AAM @ 1 5/16, ATV @ 1 1/4, AVM @ 3+, BBC @ 15.06, BMG @ 1 13/16, CAU @ 0.16, CB @ 58-, CBJ @ 2 5/8, CCH @ 0.28, CNS @ 16-, CYB @ 4.06, DAY @ 0.065, GFD @ 9+, GPC @ 28+, GRERF @ 1/8, GV @ 0.31, HEC @ 1 3/4, KRY @ 9/16, MSN @ 9/16, OMM @ 1 15/16, PDG @ 10+, PHM @ 22+, RAH @ 16-, RPM @ 13, TXB @ 3 5/8, UQM @ 4 1/8, VGZ, WRE @ 16-, WTT @ 1 3/4....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still Not that great a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) ....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion, diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and
sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, VDC, TMK, FTL, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) BOBJ @ 47-, CAM @ 42-, CITC @ 37, COG @ 19+, DGX @ 27-, DISH @ 83+, DNA @ 173-, EMC @ 61, ESST @ 13, FOSL @32++, GALT @ 57-, IDPH @ 130, ILN @ 32+, IMNX @ 70, INFY ?, KIDE @ 66, MEDI. @ 110+, MUSE @ 60+, MXIM @ 68+, NTLI. @ 99, POWI. @ 73, SCAI. @ 45-, SEWY @ 29+, UCOMA @ 74,
"Repeats": (note, more here, dig ?) ACV @ 26+, ADVS @ 49++, AHAA @ 59-, ALSC @ 12-, APA @ 45+, BHI. @ 35-, BRCD @ 186-, CAKE @ 31+, CCU @ 72, CLS @ 46+, DST @ 68, ECP @ 42+, EQT @ 38-, FCX/A @ 16+, FLM @ 12+, NXTL @ 59++, PCS @ 61+, ROK @ 62+, SII. @ 50+, SU @ 41+, SUI. @ 36-, VTSS @ 73,
and/but, took, QGENF, ASRX, BBRC, OMPT, PCLE, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list.... VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", EXX/A, NETA, HMA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, MUSE, IMNX, GMST, MCRL, MEDI, SAWS, QCOM, BBY, CC, VRTS, VRTY, CTMN, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
OMM 2 3/8 up 1/2, SCY 6 1/8 up 1 1/8, CPU 7 1/8 up 1 3/8, CPTH 34 1/2 up 2 1/2, MGL 9 1/4 up 3/4, HCR 20 5/8 up 1 1/8, MTSI. 17 3/8, NPK 39 3/8, CHY 1 1/2, MCL 9 1/2, AVM 4 1/8, SWK 27, higher still, since last time here....and, the CRB index at 200.50, up more....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and/or bounces off pullbacks: OJ 6 1/4 up 5/8, CNS 16 1/2 up 3/4, CPTH 32 1/2, CCC 6 3/4, CHY 1 5/16, MGL 8 3/4, TSK 16 3/4, BS 8, IDC, GISH, SHO, UQM, NEM, UFC, "the T-Bond", FWC, TXB, NPSI, CDE, TOY, RLC, GFD, TKR, PDG, PHM, TPS, LDW, CB, UQM, HRS, SAMC, PLC, IO., NPRO, CPQ, HEC, APFC, WTT, HOC, TBP, IHK, PFC, FNL, UFC, MSN, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) AIMM 1/2, dn 3 1/4 wow (aren't you glad we sold 1/2 pos. near $ 4. ?), FAF, TXB, CB, TMD, LDW, UFC, WTT, TSC, NEM, IHK, PLC, RPM, PDG, GFD, CYB, HCM, CBJ, HIV, SSC, CAU, IO., MSN....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
JNPR -46, +18, BRCM -10, KIDE -9 1/2, +3, GALT -10, CDI. -7 (S), SCAI. -6, IMNX -6, +3, DISH -6, +2, ITW -4 1/2, MUSE -5, BOBJ -4, CCU -6, +4, AT -3 1/2 (S), IDPH -4, UCOMA -3 1/2, TOM -3 (S), STM -4 1/2, DNA -3 1/2, DST -3 1/4, POWI. -3, JCI. -3, EMC -3,
(more, cont'd.) DD -2 1/2 (sow), NTLI. -2 1/2, JMED -2 1/2, CAM -2 1/2, GSTRF +2, -2 1/2, IP -2 1/4 (S), KLAC -2 1/2, MXIM -2, FOSL -2, FCX -2, BHI. -2, MEDI. -2, FO. -2, OTRKB -1 1/2, VTSS -1 1/2, DSCP -1 1/2, CLS -1 1/2, WLL -1 1/2 (S), STJ -1 1/2, CITC -1 1/2, ESST -1, AMCC -1 1/2, CAKE -1, ORCL -1, OAT -1, DGX -1, FDC -1, FCX/A, CHRW, WLL (S), ECL, KMB, FTS, MEA -1 (S), CAM -1, LIT -1, ACV -1, KMB -1, AHC, FLM, TAM, PCS, DEX -1 (sowo), P. -1, lower, still, since last NL here....while, ACXM 20+, ODP 10, LTD 38-, LIN 32-, even lower....and, MMCN got killed finally....and, ADVP, LTD, PKS, DD, CDI. (S), LIT, fell to their 200 DMA (S)....and, FDC, DEX, approach their 200 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
>
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ? You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns ! Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Prec.Metals (ECO, CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, CDE, most all real cheapies, riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, VL),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
and, 3, new, emerging groups: "Medical/Hospital", "Athletics/Shoes", and, Foods, soon ? and, some "Utilities", and "Brokers/Online", have V.S.T. bottoms ....also, added more depressed Golds....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some" of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once.... since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, SYNX, CHY, GV, RXSD, FC, GPC, HWD, RAH, USI, to, ESOL, TSA, STK, FAF, TKR, HM, CKP, UNA, NCT, MCL, LWN, IHS, GLB, WRE, OMM, LTV, AVM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats": add, BS, SKX, SWK, NETA, LNCR, ABF, AND, CBJ, DMI, ECO, TOY, USB, BMG, GFD, IBC, BFO, MTC, HCR, HMA, HRS, SGI, SRV, PDG, JM, TE, STE, FTU, CSG, CASY, to, AAM, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, TXB, IO., MSN, SAMC, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main....which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real mish-mosh: adding, ADSK, WIND, OCR, PWN, ZDZ, MGL, PRT, SVE, CHB, CTK, VDC, to, NEON, ONSL, FWC, NHC, RHI., CNS, PMS, DPH, IHK, FNL, NCT, ORB, AVM, ONX, LDW, HLX, HEC, NPSI., PSFT, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list.... They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Semiconductors: AMCC, KLAC, TER, etc.
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: MEDQ, VISX, DSCP, JMED, HAE, IDPH, etc.
Telecom/Commun./Internet: GSTRF, DSPG, PCS, USM, CCU, others below, etc.
Energy, Services: TOT, WFT, APA, BRR, MRL, RDC, BHI., AHC, SNT, etc.
other "Techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below here....
also note, I have removed most Retail, and Financials, from pot. put list recently....
note, this Put list grows a lot more !!!
**** others, and new ones: many more added, VVTV, SEWY, KIDE, FOSL, CAM, BBY, CC, DOV, FCX, DNA, ILN, JCI, GDT, GDW, JPM, OSI, MWD, SPW, WJ, HRL, DGX, COG, ACV, TAM, ASML, ALGX, DISH, APPB, BOBJ, CITC, CMVT, IBIS, GMST, INFY, MXIM, MEDI, BRCD, INSS, MLNM, MSFT, NTLI, POWI, PCLE, SNDK, SCAI, VRTS, WWCA, VSTR, SANM, VRIO, DOX, QQQ, XLI, MDY, EWH, to, CMVT, TLAB, AHAA, DST, NTAP, FLM, CDCO, CMOS, EUSA, FLEX, JMED, MUSE, KING, UCOMA, CMTN, KSS, GRL, GDT, EQT, MIL, PVY, WJ, STM, STJ, MTX, FTS, ECP, CDI, DOX, SU, BC, ADVS, AGY, GALT, LVCI, VISX, VTSS, BBRC, BEM, SEIC, EMC, FDS, PEB, DSCP, EXDS, HLIT, HWP, OTRKB, RSC, SJI., SNPS, TUP, ACS, ADRX, CAKE, CHRW, EMLX, FCX/A, GE, HAN, HON, ITW, KWP, MCRL, ORCL, PB, PKY, SUI, JNPR, RNWK, ROI.A, SFX, ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, PKS, VRTY, C., from recent past NL's,
but, note, some of the above have already pulled back off highs, so one wants only to Put them, if at all, into rallies, yes ? but, it IS a long list, yes ? don't fight the tape....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: "Paper", "Publishing", "Banks, on strength only", Machy./Cap. Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: none today, given previous and above remarks and ideas....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL, through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons, any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....