1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) do not forget attractiveness of most Paper stocks on pullbacks, still, and other 'old econ./cyclical' I.G.'s, like, Chem., Cap. Goods, etc. ...2) note new high in T-bond at 100 and 26/32, NOT predicted/ecpted by me....looks for real, esp. given more predicted evidence of economic U.S. 'slowdown'.... 3) I'm telling you again: the 'comp./semi./chip" stocks are toppy.... 4) again, more Insur. stocks look S.T. toppy, as usual, am I the only guy saying/seeing this ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) note drop from 200 DMA in YHOO.... 2) new commercial for WOWS software, where guy says, "I am a full-time trader, not an actor, no one is paying me to say this...." Oh, really ? again I ask, where is the SEC ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) in add. to the Chi. PM index falling, the Aug. U.S. UE rate rose to 4.1 %, first time in a while, could be start of a trend ? .... 2) as I was, as usual, the first/only to suggest, see the rolling top in SCHL, the "Harry Potter' stock ? the pattern rarely changes....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) kudos to the Montgomery analyst who downgraded all the major Drug stocks on Monday....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
1/2 pos. calls CHINA (15 to 21) for VVVVVQ 150% Gain....1/2 pos. calls RHAT (18+ to 27-) for Q 175% G....1/2 pos. calls FILE (16 to 21) for VQ 125% G....bal. calls TRRA (33+ to 44-) for VQ 125% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. HUM (6 to 9-) for 90% G ....bal. stk.on.mgn. ARG (5 to 6 1/2) for VVQ 50% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. BEOS (4 to 6+) for VVVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. PMTC (10 to 14-) for 125% G....
and/but, longs, NOW ?, USL ?, and, puts, ATON ?, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still too many recent QSL's....
and, once again, will, STT, ADI, IVV, ATON, etc., turn out to be 'fobo's ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AAI. @ 4, 1/2 pos. BS @ 3+, 1/2 pos. CN @ 4+, 1/2 pos. DDS @ 12++, 1/2 pos. DOL @ 14- ?, 1/2 pos. ECO @ 0.84, GY @ 7+, 1/2 pos. HSP @ 25+ ?, 1/2 pos. JCP @ 15+, 1/2 pos. JDN @ 10+, 1/2 pos. MRCH @ 18, 1/2 pos. OWC @ 5.06 !, 1/2 pos. WCII. @ 26++ ?,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): ABF @ 14++, ABX @ 16-, AMI. @ 1.41, AN @ 6 1/4, ASA @ 15+, ASL @ 1 1/2, AZC @ 0.85, BBI. no ?, BD @ 4-, BEOS @ 4+, BKS @ 17+, BYD @ 4 3/8, CAU 0.87, CNF @ 24+, DCX @ 51+, DL @ 10, DK @ 6- ?, DROOY @ 15/16, ECO @ , GLT @ 10 1/8, GP @ 26-, GPC @ 20+, HDG @ 1.00 ?, ITW @ 56- eh, JBOH @ 4+, KM @ 6 7/8, KRY @ 1.31, MAT @ 10-, MDR @ 7++, MEA @ 25 1/4, MMG @ 4-, NOW @ 0.40 ?, PLC @ 1.18, PPG @ 40, PRD @ 17, PZN 2.09, QCOM @ 58 ?, RAD @ 4 ?, ROST @ 15, SONE @ 17+, SRR @ 6-, T @ 30+, TWA @ 2+, USL @ 4 1/4 no ?, USU @ 4 1/8, WAB @ 9++, WGO @ 12++, WIN @ 13++, WMO @ 8++...."buy (only) low", right ?
and, we got whipsawed in, DT, WCS, DIG, CKP, WIN, WMT, COVD, GLGC, HLTH, oy....but this just shows the strength of having patience with my patterns, yes ?
** Important: took, HRZ, HTV, N, UPC, TSP, CMRC, SCNT, TRK, TJX, PTV, IMP, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
(new ones): ACL @ 35+, 1/2 pos. DDIC @ 38 ?< DVN @ 60+, 1/2 pos. IWOV @ 99+ ?, 1/2 pos. CDIS ?, 1/2 pos. CPQ @ 34, CSCO @ 69+, 1/2 pos. LSCC @ 78-, 1/2 pos. PRHC ?, SPC @ 47+, 1/2 pos. SRNA @ ,
1/2 pos. AXP @ 59++, CHRT @ 87+, DYN ?, ELNT @ 78, IRF @ 64+, 1/2 pos. MRVC @ 80,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') AIG @ 90-, ATON @ 151, CAKE @ 35+, FEIC @ 32-, HSE @ 32, LLTC @ 74, MGG @ 35+, NETE @ 60 after split, NT @ 83+, SPW @ 177....
and, as suggested, were, ADI. -7, CAKE, ARBA, 'fobo's' ?
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, BRCD, FEI, MLNM, IEX, ELNT, GELX, ONIS, NANO, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", OBJX, CDO, RADN, HTV, RGX, CDO, DT, PTV, AU, IT, GDC, WMT, G, OPI, VNTR, ATHM, CRDS, MT, AEOS, RX, PPRO, CMGI, ADIC, QSC, FCM, STE, DIG, WCS, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, BUDM, RKY, ITG, BRCM, MIKE, FORR, IEX, IONA, ACAI, SCHL, INTC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
lots more mostly Tech. winners for you:
BEOS 6.43 up 1.43, MRCH 19 1/2 up 1 7/8, ICGE 37 5/8 up 3 5/8, TRN 21 7/8 up 1 7/8, GY 7.56 up 0.56, T. 32.44 up 2.18, NITE 33 1/2 up 1 3/8, ENTU 32 5/8 up 1 1/4, GP 27 3/4 up 1 3/4, BKS 18 5/8, ROST 16 1/4, CPWR 11 1/8, ENTU 32-, GLT 10.68, JDN 11, FILE 21, MEA 26.93, AM 19, BBI. 9 3/4, HUM 9 (S), ASHW 6, DDS 13 1/8, higher since last time here....and, CMX 10+, GLGC 25, GBLX 38, TIE 9-, WCS 13-, WR 20, WBB 23+, STK 16+, BID 21+, UST 22+, even higher still....while, ARG, ASA, FTN, HOMS, IMP, hit their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
XDSL 7, 7.81, 6 7/8, GEN 9 3/4 up 3/4, STEI. 3.56, WGO 13 1/2 up 1, ISLD 31 1/4 up 1 3/8, IOM 4 1/2, ESR 5.18, CORL 3.84, ASA 17, CHINA 18.68, CAT 38 1/4 up 1 1/4, TLK 7 1/4, BD 3 7/8, QCOM 61 5/8 up 2 1/4, TGX, GT, DCX, KM, HDG, BCC, HOV, SIEB 8 3/4, PUMA, LU 41 5/8, R. 19-, UPM, DCLK, ZMBA, DPH, HMK, HA, ALI. 2 1/4, KIDE, BYD, PRD, SRR, RHAT, USU, LZB, PHC, OHI, WY, IP, OCN, CAU 1.00, NOW, NOVL, TWA, MLG, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) MAT 9 3/4, ITW, WIN 14 1/2, VNWK, NOW, R., STEI., LRW, BCC, MMG, PMTC, RAD, NETO, WGO, USL, HOV, USU, CDNW, DCX, GEN, MLG, TSO, TWA, TGX, ASL, HRC, NOW, ITW, UPM, CNF, AN, SRR, TCC....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
SPW -8, +2, CHRT -2 1/2, LSCC -3, CSCO -2, CPQ -1 1/2, DVN -1, ACL -1, lower, since last NL here....and, MIKE down to 35....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (HDG, ALI, OHI, TGX, BSX, RX, HRC, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, ALI, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, etc.)
Retails/Apparel/Merchandise (ASHW, BCF, KM, DDS, BKS, ROST, DK, TJX, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (GT, DPH, BD, GPC, DCX, WAB, TWA, HMK, HRZ, ABF, TRN, R< WGO, AN, CNF, etc.)
* plus, some "Leisure" names, Waste (HB, USL, ESR), still o.k.
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious" (USU, ABX, ASA, BMG, DROOY, CBJ ?, etc.), Housing (WYN, LZB, CMH, CN, WGO, USG, etc.), Paper ? (GLT, MEA, GCR, IP, BCC, GP, WMO, CY, etc.), Prisons (CSCQ, PZN, etc.), Banks (opbo), Travel (opbo), Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., and Precious Metals (added more below), Industry Groups....
"busted techs" (CDNW, NOW, FILE, KIDE, MRCH, ATYT, ICGE, CPWR, VNTR, ESPI, RHAT, PUMA, SONE, QCOM, and those below ? but note, some are already up nicely)
and, since I gave you so many other depressed 'L.T. old-economy' stocks, here are more ahead ? : IR, HON, PPG, TRN, KM, PRD, AM, CNF, MAT, T, IFF, LZ, G, DL, CTB, IGL, EX. ITW, from lists herein....
and, Online Brokers ? (SIEB, JBOH, EGRP, DIR, ISLD)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
add, MRCH, AAI, CVM, BNP, AII, IHK, PLC, TMG, OSE, ECO, BND, AZO, DT, JCI. ?, GTS, NSC, NEM, HSP, AU, DOL, FMO, GRA, HM, IN, OWC, UVA ?, TSD, ATHM, JAKK, PSIX, SPLS, WCII, VNTR, PKX ?, OBJX, IVIL, ORCT, LU, CRDS, SONE, FSW, NTN, WTT, PLC, NMC, BLS, CDO, BBI, MAH, REY, VZ, INAI, ALGX, FDO, MXM, USG, RBC, XLA, AMI, SLS ?, BLM ?, UAL, UIS, MT, FFD, FND ?, QSC, TMP, CERG ?, REV, to, XDSL, UCR, TFS, AU, AVA ?, BKS, MAI. ?, LZ ?, JS ?, JDN, FCX, CC, CTS, AVR, CD, MAT, MTP, RADN, FBN, ITB, NTN, PLC, OPI, WIX, BTO, SQM, TGC, ESPI, KEA, AAI, IKN, UB, BMC, PHC, PER, CKP, SWM, USV, WPO, JBM, IOM, USM, HEC, MMG, ATX, CORL, IHK, GSTRF, TLK, MDG, HRC, PII, FSW, SRR, CTO, GLC, XCL, SRS, TSO, PZN, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: FMT, GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, JDN....
and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, TXCC ?, SCH ?, ABT, DDIC, ARBA, CSCO, ANEN, BRCM, EXBD, EXAR, INTC, SYXI, FLSH, NVLS, PRHC, VRSN, SWCM ?, VTSS, SSTI, SCHL, SHPGY, IWOV, ACL, MTG, SPC, STT, DVN, to, DYN ?, AXP, AES, BSC, NT, MU, IRF, SDLI, LLTC, LSCC, MRVC, CAKE, BRCD ?, PDS, HSE, MRK, MGG, XLNX, EXBD ?, PSEM, ANEN, BSTE, GSPN, NMSS, PDE, FII. ?, ATON, NETE, VICR, BRL, to,
(repeats) JDSU, DFXI, BVF, ELF, EVER, IONA, TIBX, RSYS, PFE, AGN, NDN, CDIS, MRK, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES