1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) here come the Paper stocks, hope you are/stayed in....but Thu. weakened, 'fobo' ? must follow-through.... 2) Wed. heard first mention of potential "Xmas/shpping/web" I.G., with AMZN, ETYS, BUYX, up, I gave you, MAT, KIDE, BKS, BBI, as well, dig ? gotta buy in advance of the season, right ? ....3) Wed. 8:25, CNBC, New Horizons MF mgr. showed 40-yr. chart of "PE's of small-cap stocks vs. large-caps", and, early 2000 was THE lowest ratio, ever, making small-caps cheapest, dig ? exactl;y as I was among the first to predict herein for you, with 'broadening out' concept, buying still-depresseds, yes ? Of course, then he ruined it by loving stocks now, which are already up big, having HUGE "PE's" anyway ! huh ? ....4) note how late-and-high-as-usual B-firms begin to jump on the Brokerage/Financial stocks bandwagon, stage 3 late sign, yes ? Wed. 9 am, Pisani said, "panic buying of financials....all I am hearing is, 'just get me in something in those I.G.'s'", get it ? Too late, as usual ?
5) CNNC's M.C. Cabrera, at Wed. close, misled, "the Energy sector was unstoppable", yet, I still see few stocks new highs, nor racing ahead much at all, percentage-wise, dig ? Crude over $ 35 for a moment, yet.... 6) having been the first/only to have given them out as longs herein near their lows, I see the "B2B" stocks may have S.T. topped here, some doubled and more, S.T., as usual.... 7) and we were, again, the first/oinly to have given out depressed Trans. issues from recent lows herein for you, now getting late in many....interesting, since, as taught in my "Scenarios" booklet, 'the 95 %' have always 'linked' 'energy prices' to 'trans. stocks earnings' opposite directions, yes ? Well, once again, we see this was wrong, as they both rose, simultaneously, yes ? get it ? NO 'automatic, simple' links ! ....8) note how, even as Semis bounced, they pulled right back, stiull forming rolling top ? as usual, i am among the first few seeing this for you here....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) a decent article, barrons, 8/28, by Cheryl S. Einhorn, a commodity bigwig, "If a corporate savior's arrival boosts a stock's price, sell", points out what I have been saying for years, that, in stage 5 or 6 in my "PSYCLE sm", the 'relief rally after big drop', is normally a sell-on-strength-before-another-pullback medium, the 'sell after the rally on the news', thing, dig ? she chronicled, IBM, EK, XRX, SCO, T, RAD, EX, HWP, ONE, TEN, FMO, RJR/NGH, SPP, MO, CNC, HLT, KM, as examples, which rose, then fell a lot further after, got that ? of interest, as you know, I recently like(d), CNC, EX, RAD, T, KM, HLT, near their lows, for you herein....we shall see.... 2) CNBC's story-grabber for Wed., is, "are the growth days over for MCD ? it's stock approaches a new low...." Hmmmm, what does that mean YOU should look for ahead, "PSYCLE sm"-wise ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) 8/28 Barrons, mentions, negatively, how ATT stock has gone from being supposedly good for wows-and-orphans, to "creating them"....a decent EVB sign, ay ? M. Gabelli loves it L.T., so do I, as you know....he also bt. more UCR, on my list as well.... 2) more kudos to Barrons for a recent warning-at-parabolic type article on "BRL", on ym put list....saying, "at $ 76. high, analyst said, 'the impact of this will change Barr Labs forever'"....given its base under 20, putting it over 70 looks interesting, ay ? They suggested the stock price does not allow for any negatives, no room for error, dig ? ....3) I laugh, as with LU, VZ, T, etc., seeing WCOM making new low....hey, where are all the analysts who were-super-bullish, in them much higher, with no stops or follow-up, saying, "they have no risk, they are such exemplary managed, safe, blue-chip, guaranteed companies, etc." ?
4) a recent big ind. survey, reported on CNBC, from "ISI firm", Thu., 8:10, said, "for the first time in years, there is genuine concern that production capacity may be growing faster than demand, in the Semi. ind." ....hmmmm....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) Barrons, 8/28, an potentially bearish "PSYCLE sm" sign ? Announcing that Michael Murphy's vastly underperforming NL, "the Overpriced (shorting) stock service", has folded, closed up shop....Barron's correctly says this is sell signal, get it ? contrary EVT sentiment, yes ? Of ocurse, if I could, I would start a 'downside" NL, but I cannot.....rats....
I was always much better than he, anyway, as you know.... 2) Carl Icahn has taken stake in our TRN....and hit its 200 DMA....too late....as usual, CNBC had its pres. on Wed., only after nice rise, dig ? ....3) kudos to Salomon B., for going 'not bullish' on Keebler, after rise, rare for any firm to do that formally.... ditto on "OAT"....I concur on both.... 4) kudos for Barrons, 8/28, for quoting an unidentified hedge-fund mgr. saying, "MSFT may still be overvalued at $ 71, gorwth slowing to 15 % while its PE remains over 40....it's only a matter of time...their cash and stock holdings are only worth $ 9/sh., etc."
all in 8/28 Barrons: 5) Aug. 18, I.I. bullish % NL reading was 50 %, a new recovery high, ditto their % of stocks above 10-wk. and 30-wk. MA's, at 63 %, confirming my 'broadening out' prediction.... 6) and Lowry's buying/selling pressure indicator, 8/18, also at its best, most bullish level in a year.... 7) but "The Squeeze Play", in Barrons, said, 8/21, that the CBOE volaitilty index, was recently at the lowest, and most potentially bearish, overbt. level, in a while, since 7/99....he says to raise cash into rallies.... 8) Financial Cycles, astro-guy, warns of "nasty correction" after Labor Day weekend, 9/5....we shall see.... 9) C.S. Einhorn also suggests, "Too quiet: is Silver ready for a rebound ?", echoes my sentiments, as you know....mentioning, PAASF, HL, CDE, SSC, with cash Silver at $ 4.86, SSC filing ch. 11 BK, yet EK's photo silver-use is growing at 8 % still, yet China has been selling silver....they are looking for over $ 6. silver by year-end, citing 'etreme negative sentiment".
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
all calls PUMA (17+ to 27+) for Q 200% G....all calls ICGE (30+ to 39+) for Q 125% Gain....all calls ENTU (24++ to 32+) for VQ 100% G....all calls TRN (17+ to 22+) for VQ 125% G....all calls GT (20 to 26++) for 125% G....bal. calls FILE (15++ to 21) for Q 125% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. MDR (7 1/2 to 9 5/8) for 55% G ....1/2 pos. calls CNF (24 to 29-) for VQ 80% G....1/2 pos. CORL (3. to 4.375) for Q 40% G....
and/but, longs, NOW ?, DCX, WCII, USL, NETO (7+ to 3 to 5+), PPG ?, and, puts, AXP ?, DYN, HSE, PRHC, IRF, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....still too many recent QSL's....
and, once again, will, STT, ADI, IVV, ATON, EPG, etc., turn out to be 'fobo's ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
GCR @ 2.56, 1/2 pos. IHK @ 1.125, 1/2 pos. JAKK @ 16++, 1/2 pos. PLC @ 1 1/8, RADN @ 11, 1/2 pos. SPLS @ 15+, 1/2 pos. TMG @ 4 5/8, 1/2 pos. TNB @ 18+, 1/2 pos. WBVN @ 4,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4, ABF @ 14++, ABX @ 16-, AMI. @ 1.41, AN @ 6.18, ASA @ 15+, ASL @ 1 1/2, AZC @ 0.85, BD @ 4-, BKS @ 17+, BS @ 3 1/2, BYD @ 4 3/8, CAU 0.87, CN @ 4+, CNF @ 24+, DDS @ 12++, DL @ 10, DK @ 6, DOL @ 14-, DROOY @ 15/16, ECO @ 0.84, GLT @ 10 1/8, GPC @ 20+, GY @ 7+, HDG @ 1.00 ?, HSP @ 25+, ITW @ 56-, JBOH @ 4+, JCP @ 15+, JDN @ 10+, KM @ 6 7/8, KRY @ 1.31, LU @ 40+, MAT @ 10, MEA @ 25+, MMG @ 4-, NOW @ 0.40 ?, OWC @ 5.03, PLC @ 1.18, PPG @ 40- ?, PRD @ 17-, PZN 2.09, RAD @ 4 ?, ROST @ 15-, SONE @ 17+, SRR @ 6-, TWA @ 2+, USU @ 4 1/8, WAB @ 9++, WGO @ 12++, WMO @ 8++, XDSL @ 6 1/2, ZMBA @ 5-...."buy (only) low", right ?
and, we got whipsawed in, DT, WCS, DIG, CKP, WIN, WMT, COVD, GLGC, HLTH, ALDN, but not WGO, oy....but this just shows the strength of having patience with my patterns, yes ?
** Important: took, HSP, EGRP, GTS, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
(new ones): 1/2 pos. SRNA @ , XOM @ 84- ?,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') ACL @ 35+, AIG @ 89+, ATON @ 151, AXP @ 60+ ?, CAKE @ 35+, DDIC @ 38, DVN @ 60+, ELNT @ 78, FEIC @ 32-, LLTC @ 74, MGG @ 36 ?, NETE @ 60 after split, NT @ 83+, SPW @ 176+....
and, as suggested, were, ADI, CAKE, ARBA, AXP, 'fobo's' ?
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, CDIS, SPC, ARBA, STT, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", WMT, COVD, PKX, USG, SSCC, BNP, CVM, BBT, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, XLNX, NVDA, BRL, VICR, IONA, ING, MU, NVLS, RSYS, SDLI, FLSH, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
lots more mostly Tech. winners for you:
KRY 1.56 up 0.31, JBOH 5.43 up 1, TMG 5.43 up 0.81, CORL 4.50 up 0.66, BS 3.87 up 0.56, MDR 9,81 up 1.69, CNF 29 up 4 1/2, DK 6 3/4 up 3/4, PUMA 27 7/8 up 2 7/8 (S), SIEB 9.93 up 1, DL 11 up 1, JAKK 18 5/8 up 2, GT 26.75 up 2.12 (S), HRC 6.81 up 0.62, SONE 19.18 up 1.56, PDG 10 1/4 up 3/4, MRCH 20.81 up 1.31, SPLS 16.18 up 0.81, TNB 19 1/2 up 1, TRN 22 7/8 up 1 (S), GP 29.18 up 1, BCC 31 3/4 up 1 1/4, ISLD 33 1/4 up 2 1/8, RHAT 27 7/8 up 1 1/4, PPG 42 3/8 up 1 3/8, WIN 14 7/8, MEA 28 1/4 up 1, QCOM 60, 64-, 62, 64 5/8, BBI. 9.87, GY 8 1/4, BKS 19 7/8, JDN 11 1/8, ICGE 39 3/8 (S), BLS 38 5/8, ASHW 6.44, DOL 14.68, ABF 15.81, GLT 10.81, CNS 15, FILE 21.31, higher since last time here....while, TRN, CNF, hit their 200 DMA ....and COVD 19 3/8, higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
GEN 10 3/8 up 1 1/4, ESR 5.93 up 0.75, JAKK 17.56 up 0.93, VZ 43.93 up 2.13, SIEB 8 1/4, LZB 17.06, PPG 40, NOVL 10.68, IOM 4.56, STEI. 3 5/8, 3.06, 3 5/8, 3 1/4, ITW 56, 58-, 56++, MEA 25.56, WGO 13 5/8, BEOS 5, 5.40, PRD 16 5/8, ASA, PMTC 12 3/4, XDSL 6.46, ROST 14 3/4, CHINA 16.37, CAT 38 7/8, ISLD 29.18, RHAT 25, BCC 28.68, IP 34, 31.68, NITE 29 1/2, TLK, BD, TGX, KM, HDG, HOV, T. 30 7/8, LU 40.4, R. 20.81 up 1.18, UPM, MAT 10, ZMBA 4.93, DPH 16.31, HMK, HA, GP 26.56, ALI, KIDE 21.71 up 1, BYD, SRR, USU, PHC, OHI, WY 43.31, OCN, CAU, NOW, NOVL 10.68, 11.68, 10.62, CORL 3.87, TWA, MLG, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) NETO 5.50 up 1.57 (S), MAT, VNWK, NOW, STEI., LRW, BCC, MMG, PPG, FILE, WBVN 3.93, PMTC, MDR, RAD, WGO, HOV, USU, CDNW, GEN, MLG, TSO, TWA, TGX, ASL, HRC, NOW, UPM, AN, SRR, TCC....also note, FMT 3.69, up after bd....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
IWOV -12, GSPN -19 1/2, MYGN -8, LSCC -5 1/2, MRVC -11 1/2, ATON -8 1/2, +5, -7, IRF -3, CSCO -4, CHRT -8, NT -7 1/2, DDIC -4 1/2, HSII. -1 1/2, ACL -1 3/8, FEIC -1, CPQ -1, DVN -1, lower, since last NL here.... and, MIKE down to 35....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (HDG, ALI, OHI, TGX, BSX, RX, HRC, MT, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, BNP, ALI, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, AII, etc.)
Retails/Apparel/Merchandise (ASHW, BCF, KM, DDS, BKS, ROST, DK, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (GT, DPH, BD, GPC, DCX, WAB, TWA, HMK, HRZ, ABF, TRN, R, AII, WGO, AN, CNF, etc.)
* plus, some "Leisure" names, Waste (HB, USL, ESR), still o.k.
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious" (USU, ABX, ASA, BMG, DROOY, CBJ ?, etc.), Housing (WYN, LZB, CMH, CN, WGO, USG, OWC, etc.), Paper (GLT, MEA, GCR, IP, BCC, GP, WMO, CY, etc.), Steel (X, BS, PKX, IST, AKS ?), Prisons (CSCQ, PZN, etc.), Banks (opbo), Travel (opbo), Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., and Precious Metals (added more below), Industry Groups....
"busted techs" (CDNW, NOW ?, KIDE, MRCH, ATYT, ICGE, CPWR, VNTR, ESPI, SONE, QCOM, and those below ? but note, some are already up nicely)
and, since I gave you so many other depressed 'L.T. old-economy' stocks, here are more ahead ? : IR, HON, PPG, TRN, PRD, AM, CNF, MAT, T, IFF, LZ, G, DL, EX, CTB, IGL, ITW, from lists herein....
and, Online Brokers ? (SIEB, JBOH, DIR)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
add, MMS, IST, X ?, DRTN, ETYS, WBVN, CVM, AII, IHK, PLC, TMG, OSE, ECO, BND, AZO, DT, JCI. ?, NSC, NEM, AU, DOL, FMO, GRA ny, BBT, HM, IN, UVA ?, TSD, JAKK, PSIX, SPLS, VNTR, PKX ?, OBJX, IVIL, ORCT, LU, CRDS, FSW, NTN, WTT, PLC, NMC, BLS, CDO, BBI, MAH, REY, VZ, INAI, ALGX, FDO, MXM, RBC, XLA, AMI, SLS ?, BLM ?, UAL, UIS, FFD, FND ?, QSC, TMP, CERG ?, REV, to, XDSL, UCR, TFS, AU, AVA ?, BKS, MAI. ?, LZ ?, JS ?, JDN, FCX, CC, CTS, AVR, CD, MAT, MTP, RADN, FBN, ITB, NTN, PLC, OPI, WIX, BTO, SQM, TGC, ESPI, KEA, IKN, UB, BMC, PHC, PER, CKP, SWM, USV, WPO, JBM, IOM, USM, HEC, MMG, ATX, CORL, IHK, GSTRF, TLK, MDG, HRC, PII, FSW, SRR, CTO, GLC, XCL, SRS, TSO, PZN, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: FMT, GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, JDN....
and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, TXCC ?, SCH ?, ABT, DDIC, CSCO, ANEN, BRCM, EXBD, EXAR, INTC, SCH ?, XOM, SYXI, FLSH, NVLS, PRHC, VRSN, SWCM ?, VTSS, SSTI, SCHL, SHPGY, IWOV, ACL, MTG, DVN, to, AES, BSC, NT,, SDLI, LLTC, LSCC, MRVC, CAKE, BRCD ?, PDS, MRK, MGG, XLNX, EXBD ?, PSEM, ANEN, BSTE, GSPN, NMSS, PDE, FII. ?, ATON, NETE, VICR, BRL, to,
(repeats) JDSU, DFXI, BVF, ELF, EVER, IONA, TIBX, RSYS, PFE, AGN, NDN, CDIS, MRK, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES