1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
While we eschew "very-short-term trading/watching indexes", etc., last Friday's furious, shocking bounces may have, indeed, been the type of "sucker pops" I suggested earlier here ....a small number of new highs among already-extended issues, yet the vast majority are just muddling....a very difficult period, yes ? are you turining off again ? please do not....the coming "other shoe dropping" should reward you in Puts ahead....While most of our depresseds still remain decent shots long, in our continuing "split" market....

confusing the issue further, Raymond James' Ralph Bloch pointed out, that the put/call ratio Wed. 8 th, was 205 %, meaning, 2 puts traded, for every 1 call option traded, on the CBOE, normally, a S.T. 'oversold' reading....and that, he says, the last time such readings, was after the Dow hiut 10,000 the first time....three weeks of confusing yuckiness ensued, before higher levels, in his opinion....Of course, most "options" trade only on the "big names", and NOT the broad market of issues, right ? So, this is still NOT fully representative of things, dig ? You MUST learn the Put side, along with the long side....Remember, the specialists must get some 'fakeout breakouts' to distribute their inventories in extended issues, which Wall St. and the Media now love, way up here....Among the depresseds, well, they are already down a lot, and often are already-washed-out, and our stops and proper diversification protect us, so we remain in some of them, yes ?

Plus, I don't "do" "time cycles" as you know, but, you should be aware, that several toppy-in-extended-stocks-only-type cycles do converge in Sept. ahead, from the 13 th, to the 24 th....Plus, the 'season' is right for a further correction, as I said back in May, when this all began IMHO....So, just be aware, and in at least some puts near highs, even given recent QSL's....Stay in the game....and, if it means anything to you (and it should, from a PSY-chological p.o.v.), I personally have been "down" lately mentally, seeing what seems to be out there, which often preceeds a decline among extendeds....but that is ephemral, and not perfect....

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by Ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) the Energy, Telecom, Semis, Techs, stocks continue to show too much strength.... we will not fight the tape on them....no "tops guessing".... 2) notice the continuing rolling tops among many Bank stocks....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) in a rare scenscient cmment, Mon., 10:50 am, CNBC's Joe Kernan, showing new highs in AAPL, SUNW, ORCL, said, "the stock always knows...." (intimating that the stock often moves ahead of future "fundamentals")....you have a long, long way to go, but you do get a few points, guy.... 2) after the close, Mon., KWHY-tv's Mike Russell, actually said, "investors might be reluctant to send stock prices higher, given the strength last Friday"....Huh ? since when to "invesotrs" "DO" anything ? and/or, they somehow hope they do NOT make prices to rise, so they do not make money ? don't get me started.... 3) CNBC's Bob Pisani, actually had a scentient point, Wed., 11 am, pointing out, "everybody is coming out with super-positive comments on Micron Tech. here....yet, its stock is down today, intraday, from 83- to 77+...." (along with others ilk) ....4) Tue. 6 th, after close, CNBC guy, highlighting "the boom in wireless commun. stocks", very late, as usual, said, "these companies are really in the sweet spot here"....his stocks given: JNPR, ATML, PMCS, HLIT, AMCC, PWAV....most all on my watch-for-tops list, yes ? .... 5) I have noticed that KWHY-tv ch. 22, LA, for many months now, has promoted its program, "Executive Summary", as, "covering what's up in the business world", when, in fact, it is nothing more than shilling rip-off, for-profit pitches by product pushers....There have never been "executives" on it, and mentions no "summaries" of any corporate news items....they should at least change its name to "we need the ad money, and the only people who can afford to pay for this program that prices out small business helpers, are the backed promoters, mostly Wade you-know-who".... 6) CNBC's Bill Griffith, Thu. 9 th, 9 am, said, "come on, did anybody really think 9/9/99 was going to be a problem, because we all knew, in our heart of hearts, that it would not be anything ?" Well, yes, evidently millions of unenlightened people nationwide did....and YOU Media people over-reported/sensationalized that, yes ? geez....just like the Media, to "push" junk onto the captive public, then disavow their resposibility....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) Mon. 9/6, 10:35 am, had a pleasant fellow on, the small business editor of the WSJ no less, talking about how small businesses rarely have formal business plans (as if they could, but don't get me started), and what struck me, was how many times he said the words "you know", and, "like", before every comment he made....a pet peeve of mine, especially where overpaid Media professionals in this industry are concenred....as a result, his message was muddied....on the lighter side, he did show some "business plans made easy" books --- each running hundreds of pages long .... 2) Mon., 11 am, Bob Pisani, CNBC, showing strength in OIl Service stocks, incorrectly/misleadingly said, "they are really starting to outperfom the S & P" ....WRONG....they have BEEN outperforming, since March 1999, when we were the first to give them out as long buys in beautiful bases, yes ? as usual, "the Media" only mentions things, way AFTER the fact....are you learning the patterns ? ...3) last, I notice CNBC has begun showing incomplete/misleading "intraday" charts again, which happened earlier before more corrections, as I pointed out herein, remember ? we shall see....

4) at a recent DELL 'Internet' conference, Michael Dell said, "it's bringing about the death of bricks-and-mortar retailers...." I don't know....he's feeling a bit too strong, PSY-chologically, and that is usually an early warning sign, PSYCLE-wise...Intel's pres., said that only 10 of the Fortune 500 do not now have internet sites (but how are they using them ?)....he also said that the number of "connected computers" will quintuple, to 1 billion, and that demand for "servers" will rise 20-fold, in the next five years....another quote, he warned, "we all have to take advantage of it, or get steamrolled by it." ("all" of us ? not just "some" of us ?) But the speakers were SO effusive, and hyping, that many wild claims were purported, which, from the corporate leaders in the field, is a bit disconcerning to me....how about you ? I still do not see the "phenomenally huge growth", beyond normal nice growth, ahead, from here, because most people I know, still do not use the Internet all that much, and many do not even have computers....and I have communicated with a lot of nice, intelligent, successful people, many of whom remain confused and frustrated by the lack of ease of use, etc....Perhaps I will be wrong, fundamentally, but when these people claim to cure everything but the common cold, and world peace, after parabolic stock rises, this often marks very late stage 3 at least....Last, I have two questions for these "will the Internet/Tech. great times last forever" people: "if" the internet were to actually "replace" actual "physcial stores", then where will millions of employees and shareholders, who will lose tons of money and jobs, by that event occuring, have the money and wherewithal to buy tons of stuff on the Internet ? and, second, do they really think human nature itself will change, so that people will not want to touch, feel, smell, interact, and travel any more ? (am I making sense here ?) Remember, these same big companies doubted the Internet "thing", earlier, yes ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Mon. Tom Costello reported new buys, from Lehman Bros., who loves, WWCA, VSTR, NXTL, all QSL's for me, but all now at new highs, certainly very, very late to "begin" to like them up here.... 2) an as-usual-late Wall St. analyst, CNBC, Thu. 9 am, said, "there's still a good valuation discount for the Energy stocks right now...." Excuse me ? Compared to what ? These same kind of analysts were bearish on them, months ago, near their lows, yes ? Now, of course, the vast majority are raising all their estimates forward, yes ? a late stage 3 sign, yes ? CNBC's Greg Miles said, "the market doesn't seem to be worried about the effects higher Oil prices might have on the economy....", as he did NOT report new 'fade-lows' among Airline stocks prices, he misleads millions yet again.... 3) a commodity guy I respect, Jake Bernstein, CNBC, Thu. 9:30 am, kinda agrees with me, saying, he sees a broadening distribution pattern, accepting a small number of stocks, but he sees higher I.R.'s....he sees a 30 % stocks drop begining rather soon....but he also sees a "coming financial crisis", whatever that means....but CNBC did not let him on long enuf to explian....sure, he's saying something "the financial media" does not want their viewers to hear.... 4) Mr. nice-guy, but-an-incorrect-perma-bear-in-recent years, Peter Eliades, on KWHY-tv, Thu. 10:20 am, reiterated he is more bearish than ever here....continuing to see more divergences, as he has all the way up, dig ? I was hoping to hear some new helpful technical things, but heard nothing new, but a broken clock is still right twice a day, yes ?

e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) again, NOT even remotely a political or slanted comment, but, wherefrom the "celebration of the 25 th anniversary of president Ford's inauguaration", on Wed. 8 th, which CNBC kept mentioning all that day ? Since when is the anniversary of ANY president's inauguaration anything special ? recall the circumstances under which he became president....and they want to "celebrate" that ? another reason why I have eshewed all politics.... 2) you know, I was thinking about that L.T. Investor's Daily commercial, where the voiceover come-on (not even a real person, but don't get me started) says, "I've at least doubled or tripled my investment money"....And I wonder, which is it ? Where is the proof ? Why not say quadrupled or whatever ? and why does the Media NEVER check anyone on commerical claims ? reason: a five-letter word beginning with M.... 3) re: the supposed "Y2K champagne supply scare", was correctly debunked by CNBC's O'Brien/Bauman, Thu., 9:45 am, good going....they pointed out that demand has been plat for a decade now, and, the largest makers see barely a 10 % rise, hardly worth worrying about....as if this story was worth even mentioning in the first place, right ? Media....go figure....ditto, the "9/9/99" hype....

As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....