1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
Got Puts ? Have you actually viewed charts of sec. (3) and sec. (7) Puttable ideas lately ? a bunch have had decent toppy patterns....as good as I have seen....Even given our QSL's in too many of them, we continued to add more....some patterns are just not long enough, but plenty have been serviceable, with close stops above....I have been spending more time finding puttable stocks for you....has "the other shoe" started to drop ?

With the Dow Trans. and Dow Util. indexes breaking down anew, the Dow 65's A/D line, as expected, finally broke the neckline of its H & S pattern, going back to Oct. '98 (the lows of last year, showing how weak even most of "the big blue chips" have been), on Wedneday....and, as predicted, the McLellan Oscillator is pulling back, and McLellan Summation is close to breaking its "ledge" which I mentioned recently it might....last, remember, watch those 200 DMA's as more stocks approach down....As always, they will seem most bearish, and you might be most frustrated, just as they reach their support levels, and it will be too late to begin to buy Puts, again, right ? are you learning the PSY-chological/sentiment patterns ?

As if I have to remind you: remember, most tops form as 'upside-down saucers', and, therefore, in their middle, they often have a 'fakeout breakout', which, in a properly diversified, NON-emotional portfolio, one must 'accept', even to the point of having some QSL's in order to glean the Big % Gains in Puts, in order to be in some, as they roll over....Re-read my "mastering the downside" booklet....One must also have some patience, and stay with it, and not quit prematurely, of course....The Oil Services, Aero/Def., and now, probably, the Semis, had such formations....The Banks and Utils. were a bit easier at that time, for you to take advantage of, but how many times have I said that, with extended stocks so high, in general, one MUST be in "some" puts, almost always....'nuff said....it has been totally up to YOU....If you have not taken advantage, it also points to the value of a good, special broker/manager, yes ?

Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable, staged, stocks, which fit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more, as befits market conditions....again, the "Most Actionable, Do-able, stocks, Here/Now", are in Section (3). And, the "Learning/feeling/Sentiment/commentary" items, are in section (2). Longer lists, and Industry Groups, are in section (6) and (7)....and all "follow-ups", are in sections (4) and (5). Of course, if you do not own any of the stocks in sec. (4) or (5), you may choose to save time by Ignoring those if you wish....Eight, very clear NL "sections". You have No excuses for not taking advantage, over time.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) Tues., more B-firms initiated super-positive comments on the already-parabolic Semis, and, Wed./Thu., most may have ended their predicted "fakeout breakouts" ? they certainly have suckered 'the 95 %' in up here, in them, yes ? a probable "momentum top'.... 2) most Homes/Building/Lumber stocks, which have fallen, into a rising earnings-growth period, proving "fundamentalists" wrong yet again, are likely to begin bottoming process here, will watch to try to catch some for you, like, LPX, PHM, LEN, FLE, OH, etc. ....3) hmmmm, our Energy/Oil Service stocks, beginning to crack ? are you in their puts ? check them out.... 4) cash Platinum contract has a decent depressed "PSYCLE sm" base, going back to 9/96, just FYI.... 5) also note continuing correction, we were the first/only to have predicted herein, in the FTSE, London stock index.... 6) see some of our extended/parabolic "Medical" sexy/loved stocks, correcting....probably the first/only to have caught them as well.... 7) looks like the extended Biotechs may be topping finally.... 8) last, note, some depressed Food stocks bottoming ? ....9) some cheapie Gold stocks are cracking patterns, so being careful with them....they were, as I said, a long shot anyway.... 10) as I was first/only to point out, Bob Pisani, CNBC, Thu. 9:05 am, showed, some Energy stocks cracking, while cash Oil went higher....you are in the stocks, NOT the commmodty... 11) the "IIX" Internet stock Index, itself, shows three lower highs after a parabolic rise....need I say more ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Mon., 11;15 am, the CNBC gang, again, was recommending Paper stocks, incorrectly....will they ever learn patterns ? ....2) while many predicted puttable Bank/Insur./Finl. Svcs. stocks approach their Feb. '99 lows, they are not ready yet to be examined as potential longs.... 3) the "leaders" in the Semi. industry, still failing to break below their 50 DMA's, nor their uptrends....yet....again, we choose those that have budding top formations, and ignore those that do not....no "guessing", right ? plenty of other fish in the sea.... 4) Wed. 15 th, 9:05 am, CNBC's Bob Pisani said, "I kept pushing and pushing and pushing floor traders, for reasons for market action"....Gee, maybe that's one reason why you are as you are: trying to 'create' stories often, where none exist.... 5) CNBC, Tue., 10:30 am, reiterated the heavy/record slate of IPO's coming, late Sep./early Oct., as increased supply, as I mentioned here aerlier, probably not a good sign.... 6) Bob Pisani, CNBC, Wed. 15 th after the close, actually said, gee, we had all this great economic news, but what we expected to happen, didn't...." yeah, so ? nothing new there.... 7) CNBC's Bill Griffeth, Thu. 9 am, actually said, "more strong economic data sends stocks lower...."

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) of course....duh: CNBC, Tue. 14 th, 11:15 am, highlighted Oil prices, bullishly, citing "analysts" (I love that one), as predicting Crude to $ 25-27, by early 2000....but, I think, 'fundamentally' (surprise), that OPEC will have raised production levels before that, to make even more money, dig ? Not many "experts' are even saying this, so I may be among the first, as usual....meaning, an impending top in some Energy stocks, which may fall, or go sideways, BEFORE such news is even hinted in the Finl. media....watch for this to unfold, "PSYCLE-stage-wise"....at least , at the end of their report, they did mention this a bit, showing Crude backing off to $ 18-22 later in year 2000....but I see that happening sooner.... 2) recently CNBC had pres. of "CKR" on, in the latest contrary-signal, going back years, my NL has given CKR as a long near lows, after "media pans", and warned of tops after "media loves it" treatments....this will mark, I think, the 4 th or 5 th time, hopefully.... 3) Thu., CNBC rehashed conressional investigation of "daytrading and such firms", STILL does not mentione the "real" problems with such activities....if they would just contact me, I would help the country with my correct take on that....what a shame, ay ? Just saying "it is risky" is not enough....NO one else has mentioned the PSY-chological nuances involved, which, if explained, would aid everyone....But then, since when does the Media truly help the masses.... 4) Thu., CNBC presented super-glowing highlight interview of "JBL", B-firms coming out with normal, usual, 'late stage 3-or-4-type' recommendations....of course, at $ 50.00, up from $ 1.00 only 2-3 years ago, any enlightened person would take caution, yes ? check its chart out, as we add it...

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) MER now likes MCK, one of mine which I like near lows.... 2) Tue., analyst on CNBC, 11:40 am, loves MRL, INPH, here.... 3) Tue., CNBC, 11:50 am, Montgomery analysts finally lowered their price targets on Drug stocks, to BMY to 84, WLA 83, SGP 64, LLY 90, etc., and adds MU as long up here, near potential double top ? ....4) Mon., CNBC, 12:45 pm, Stephen Shobin, Lehman, actually called the chart formation on INTU, and AXP, "bases", and loves both, long, up here....huh ? ....5) mgr. of a "tech./internet" M. Fund, on CNBC, Thu., 16 th, 9:25 am, said, that he likes some extended Semi. and Internet Infrastructure stocks, (paraphrasing) "because in the Fall and Winter, more people stay inside and (therefore) go online, use the net, etc., this will drive earnings and ad revenues of such stocks, etc." O.K., even if so, but can that be directly automatically predictive of STOCKS of companies in those areas ? Nope. Plenty of those 'stocks' have FALLEN, as their revenues have risen, yes ? And, as to supposed "seasonality", go check yourself: "fall/winter" has Not been automatically mostly higer for such stocks, the last few years....'nuff said....are you learning ? Remember, I was the first on record, to predict biug fallout of 'daytraders', from Jan. 1999....If I had had mass media coverage, I probably could save thousands of those people, bilions of dollars, yes ?

e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) L.A. Times, 9/13, headline, "News Media's Coverage of Violent Crime Under Fire" (interesting that they would use a violent word in their headline, but I digress), said, "shocking tones and content spred fear and pander to tabloid values, critics say"....I trust I don't have to expound further, except to say this has spread to financial items, as you know....this article should be sent to every Media person in the world, every day....'nuff said.... 2)

As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period ....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ" means it was held even shorter-term than that....

Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered (previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....