1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) gee, so far, many stage 5 or 6 Internet stocks Have been basing as I was the first/only to have suggested herein....see section (6) below ....2) interesting, with recent declines, that some "Food" stocks have been rising....like, RAL, SZA, etc. I was certainly the first/only to give some other for you herein.... 3) and I know it is a bit early, but, as I said, some depressed Home-Building-related stocks will likely bottom ahead....perhaps we will be the first there as well ? ....4) evidently, the Bank of England's recent Gold auction sales were oversubscribed by 9 times....of course, when I gave you Gold stocks near lows, I had no idea of that "fundamental" item.... 5) in another example of what I was, again, the first/only to predict here (remember ?), more mergers are occuring --- at stock prices well BELOW their highs....ELNK and MSPG being the latest examples....both certainly well up from all-time lows, of course, but still, off 50-60 % from highs, and near their prices of a full year ago, yes ? Recall, as you were taught in my booklets, most "buyers/volume" in these stocks occured above recent prices, in stage 3.... 6) also, PECO and Unicom are merging (we predicted more Utility mergers, a while ago) ....Remember, I gave you great Puts in "PE" near its high, herein, check its chart out....This merger also occuring at prices LOWER than their highs....watch for more of these.... 7) recall how I recently suggested a record number of IPO's coming up, in Sept./Oct., might be a negative for "other stocks"....Well, while the latter HAS been true, those mostly-internet IPO's have surprised me, by rising a ton immediately here....But, seeing as I added some depressed Internet stocks as long Buys for you herein recently, they may have been helped (and may continue to be helped S.T.) by some Internet stocks' S.T. bottoms anyway, dig ? But even so, these will only be S.T. trades, and NOT huge new rises to new highs, etc. ....8) looks like we are going to be the first/only around, to go 3 -for-4 on buying the T-Bond, in recent months, hope it helped you....for the umpteenth time: do NOT "Link" stocks with bonds ! they can, and have, moved opposite each other, tons of times !
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from
the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bob Pisani (again), after the close, Tues., said, "no one on the trading floor I have spoken with is the least bit concerned...." oy....nice V.S.T. PSYCLE-sentiment sell signal, yes ? ....2) CNBC's M. Cabrera (again) Tues., said, "many Internet stocks climbed higher...." ("climbed" ? higher ? than what ?) Interesting, since, up till recently, they have been FALLING, for quite a while, not "climbing", and, anyway, on Tues., they only rose small percentages, yes ? hardly worthy of a "climbing" comment....geez.... 3) kudos to them, and more proof for us: L.A. Times, 9/21, had 3 articles regarding the impending/already top, in commercial and residential R.E. in So. Calif....a) commerical developers will build more office space in 1999, than in the previous 4 years combined....and O.C. office vacancy rates are UP +1 % already = increased supply....b) new-home permits are up +17 %, = increasing supply....c) and an item that builders fear new homes are now "priced beyond the reach of the broadest segment of consumer demand"....'nuff said....are you out ? and/or, have you at least investigated getting your recent years' cash increase out of some of your R.E. ? ....4) R. Saxton, KWHY-tv, Wed. 22 nd, 1:05 pm, actually asked an interviewee, if he thought we'd have a "santa claus rally" ....when ? He asks this now ? in Sept. ? amazing, huh....he also said, "this is a stock-pickers market", as if it has ever NOT been so....this, from the guy who immorally hurt me and thousands of viewers with no punishment to him....don't get me started.... Lesson: it is ALWAYS a "stock pickers' market", and, EVERY single year, and "season", there is a "rally", and a "decline", of some kind, right ? re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" Booklets ! ....5) Wed., 23 rd, B. Pisani, CNBC, 9:05 am, highlighted weaker I.G.'s, saying, "lost leadership" of the Paper stocks, "they are clearly breaking down....analysts are cutting future estimates"....and, "Aerospace stocks are just getting killed....all sorts of concerns about not making their numbers"....both, EXACTLY as I was the first/only to have predicted, yes ? and, both, as I mentioned when I faded them herein for your benefit, over-bullishly-recommended by CNBC'ers, near their highs....Where are the kudos, and where is the Media coverage of my output ? Oh, and, P.S., netither groups is getting "killed", both are down, but Nowhere near high percentage declines, right ? Perhaps it is some Media messages that should be 'killed', for the benefit of millions of deserving traders/investors.... 6) CNBC, B. Pisani (yet again), Wed., 10 am, reported negatively on "ASD", a stock I specifically gave you herein as a Put near its high, only after it has fallen, as usual....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) afund mgr. who liked "IT" near its highs, said, on CNBC, Tue. 11 am, even given its big decline, he thinks, "when it bottoms later, it will double from there, a year forward"....gee, maybe he should have had a stop on it, around 40, yes ? anyway, he holds it all the way down, while we wait to see if it forms an EVB or a base, anyway, right ? ....2) got more "B.S." negative reports about record Trdade deficits, with Japan, etc., on CNBC, Tues. Gee, all of a sudden such deficites are "negative", just because "the market fell" on Tuesday ? But, gosh, they have been mostly Positive, for years now, yes ? ....3) L.A. Times, 9/21, a nice 'top sign", mgr. from an Invesco M. Fund, new buy recommendation on Oil Service stocks, called, "Drilling for Growth"....only AFTER they are already up a ton, right ? the pattern never changes.... 4) and, now, Wed., finally, The Media is beginnign to say, newly bullishly, about the Japanese Yen (after it has already risen a ton), what they recently said, as Crude Oil began to top, yes ? see the pattern ? ....5) a rare semi-confusing "fundamental note", regarding the real cheapie Gold stocks: you should know that many of these companies have "sold forward" their future production, meaning, when/if cash Gold should rise a bunch (which is still not occuring yet), they may not make/receive as much money, as more leveraged gold producers, who had/have not hedged their production, dig ? This may be one reason why some of these, though in nice low bases, have not popped as one had hoped, so far, off lows....However, receiving $ 300. for their Gold would still be way above recent prices, yes ? So another reason why we exchew most "fundamental items", because most can be viewed both ways at once....so we'll stick with the charts and sentiment....NO "scenarios", right ? (re-read my "Scenarios" booklet)....6) Wed., "UTX" announced it is laying 5,000 people off....Exactly as I taught you, this "bad news" only comes out, AFTER its stock, which I specifically gave you as a Put near its high, when Wall St. loved it, is Already down....dig ? too late for "the 95 %"....as usual....YOU got the Gain.... 7) the pres. of of "ZDZ", a stock I specifically gave you herein recently near its low, and just missed it, was on CNBC highlighted, Wed., 10:22 am, glowing, etc. Of course, ZDZ stock is already up, from 14+ to 23 quickly....this interview should have been done a few weeks ago, and they should have had me on, about it.... 8) last, Microsoft's CEO, Steve Ballmer (a guy whose personality I like, BTW), Wed., according to Bill Griffeth, 10:20 am, came out with a pronouncement, that he "thinks Technology stocks are too high, and are overvalued"....While he is certainly not a stock-price-prediction talent in any way, this is true, especially that of his own company....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) another in a long line of opportunities for you to see a company/stock probably unravel in the face of continuing, and, from now on, likely incorrect, UN-helpful "buy forever" recommendations by tons of B-firms: Apple- AAPL, beginning Tus. 21 st....just FYI, I may actually have to personally buy a new IBM/PC, after 14 years of happy Mac usage....gee, if I may never buy another Apple computer, from hwre will there future stock rise come ? and, BTW, it did not "plunge" on Tues., as the sensationalizing CNBC reporter said ....2) three B-firms finally downgraded "GR" and "GT", and the "tire" stocks, Tues. 21 st--- as usual, only after they had already fallen 25 % and more....and, BTW, they did not "plummet" Tues., as the sensationalizing CNBC reporters said.... allied, an analyst who loved Daimler near its high, also just downgraded it --- after it had already fallen a lot...the pattern never changes.... 3) a useless analyst from Rainier Core Equity Fund, on CNBC, Wed., 9:25 pm, newly loves SUNW, SEBL, as "internet plays"....Huh ? way up here in parabolic rises ? where has this guy been all this time ? Seems he missed a bunch of risers, ay ? Gee, "if" we were to like any stocks of Internet ilk (and I don't like many), wouldn't we want the depressed, basing ones ? next....
e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) ....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best
individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts GDT (62 to 51-) for Q 111% G....bal. stock NPRO (1 5/8 to 3 3/4) for Q 100% Gain...1/2 pos. puts ROK (62+ to 51++) for Q 111% G....bal. puts FOSL (34 to 27+) for VQ 90 % G....bal. puts FCX (16++ to 14+) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. stk./on.mgn. PWN (7+ to 10-) for VQ 60% G....1/2 pos. puts BPA (118 to 105+) for VVQ 66% G....puts TOT (68 to 61) for VQ 66% G....puts BHI. (35 to 28+) for Q 80% G ....puts DST (70- to 60) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. puts LMG/A (37+ to 34-) for VQ 44% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. KSE (26+ to 30+) for 25% G....
and/but, longs, TMD ?, CKR, PLC, BS, PHM, CDE ?, RPM, TWA ?, HEC, TCA ?, STE ?, and, puts, NOPT, CLS, MSTR, MUSE ?, ANTC ?, GMST ?, STM ?, for more, quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....been too many of them lately....rare....and, as you have seen, many are "iffy" sales....up to you....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) ABTL @ 14-, 1/2 pos. ATHM @ 37, HM @ 7+, HMY @ 4 9/16, NHP @ 15+, SCS @ 14+, 1/2 pos. SEEK @ 28, 1/2 pos. SEV @ 3-,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ASO @ 21+, BGO @ 9/16, BMG @ 1 3/4, CASY @ 13.06, CAU @ 0.16, CCH @ 3/16, CDE @ 4, CHB @ 8 3/8, CTK @ 8-, CYB @ 4-, DAY @ 0.065, ECO @ 1 1/4, FLO @ 15, FNL @ 4 7/8, GFD @ 9+, GRERF @ 1/8, GSR @ 7/16, GV @ 0.31, HBI. @ 4 1/4, HMA @ 7+, IMG @ 5 9/16, KRY @ 9/16, MSN @ 9/16, MWHS @ 12, NHC @ 6 1/8, ONSL @ 14+ PDG @ 10, SWK @ 25-, TBFC @ 21, THC @ 16+, TO @ 11+, TRL @ 7 9/16, TSC @ 4 5/16, TXB @ 3 5/8, UQM @ 4 1/8, VBAC @ 1 3/16, VGZ, WTT @ 1 3/4, "the T-bond @ 113+"....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds ...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still 'Not that great' a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have
subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may
have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE
viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who
DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all,
for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, SRV, UNA, LPX, MT, LEN, AEP, JM, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ADIC @ 35, AGX @ 48, ARTC @ 60-, ATML @ 40-, BCE @ 49+, CXY @ 19+, DIGX @ 31-, GDW @ 100+, JBL @ 52-, PVY @ 29+, SONC @ 31-, SPW @ 90-, TSI. @ 29,
"Repeats": (note, added names) ASML @ , BVF @ 59+, CBRNA @ 58++, COG @ 19+, DSCP @ 35, EQT @ 40-, HAE @ 20-, JDSU @ 116+, KLAC @ 73+, LMG/A @ 37+, MSFT @ 97-, MSTR @ 41+, MUSE @ 59+, NTLI. @ 100+, PLX @ 19++, POWI. @ 77, QLTI. @ 82+, SANM @ 80, SEWY @ 29+, SNDK @ 89, SUI. @ 36-, TAM @ 12+, TEF @ 50-, TYC @ 103+, WCII. @ 59-, WJ @ 34++, ZBRA @ 49+,
and/but, took, OCLI., PSDI., ARBA ?, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", ZDZ, VTR, BXM, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, RTRSY, GENZ, TGNT, SDLI, PNR, SLR, MIL, ARC, DOV, MMM, GIS, GLM, HON, CPN, SJI, LSI, IVX, CPN, LD, IV, OV, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
HM 8 5/8 up 1 3/8, PDG 11 5/8 up 1 7/8, NEM 22 5/8 up 2 3/4, ABTL 15 5/8 up 1 7/8, TBFC 23 1/4 up 2 3/8, ATHM 39 5/8 up 3 5/8, RXSD 15 3/8 up 1 1/4, SEEK 29 3/4 up 1 7/8, CNS 19 7/8 (sos), THC 17 5/8, NHP 15 7/8, HEB 7 3/8, CHB, the T-bond, higher, since last time here....and, TGX 13 1/2, CYM 19-, AR 23, and, UBS became another "takeover" given you near lows, higher still....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: BMG 2 1/8 up 3/8, TCA 6 5/8, 7 3/8, 6 5/8 (sos) ?, TPN 8 1/8 up 1 1/8, MCL 9 3/8 up 5/8, ECO 1 3/8 up 1/4, BMG 2 up 5/16, ASO 22 1/4 up 1, HM 7 7/8, TSC, PFC, UFC, CKP, CPU, HMA, HOC, NWK, CCC, ATC, SWK, SYNX, CASY, AVM, OJ, ONSL, CHY, LNCR, CSR, STE, LDW, ESOL, FWC, TXB, NPSI, CDE, RLC, GFD, TKR, TPS, APFC, NHC, WTT, TBP, PFC, FNL, MSN, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) PFC, SIF, TXB, WTT, APFC, CCC, LWN, CDE, TRL, TWA, HMA, SWK, STE, CHY, USI, FLO, TCA, ECO, LDW, GFD, HOC, GFD, HCM, HIV, SSC, CAU, MSN, TG....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
SNDK -15, BRCM -11, POWI. -5, HLIT -9, MMM -4, BVF -4 1/2, WFT -3, GDW -4, ARTC -3, JCI. -3, JBL -3, VISX -3 1/2, ADIC -2 1/2, MACR -2 1/4, ATML -2, MSFT -2, SCAI. -2, SSCC -1 3/4, BPA -2 (sow), HWP -2, GDT -2, PLX -1 3/4, EQT -1 3/4, ZBRA -2, VNWK -1 1/2, ROK -1 1/2 (S), TOT -1 1/2, DIGX -1 1/2, BSE -1 1/2, AGX - 1 1/2, BHI. -1 1/4 (S), ILN -1 1/2, WFT -1 1/4, EUSA -1, LMG/A -1, RSC -1, COG -1 1/2, SEWY -1, WJ -1, KSS -1, CAKE, RDC -1, ILN -1, SPW -1 1/2, DST -2, FLM, ECL -1 1/4 (S), DYN -1 1/4, SUI, BA, lower, still, since last NL here....
note, how, AT, ASD, DSP, SUI, ROK (S), TOT (S), DST (S), fell to their 200 DMA's....while, LMG/A (sow), BPA (sow), KSS, BHI. (sow), FOSL, are approaching their 200 DMA's....and, MEDI, fell to its 50 DMA....and, FMC 51, FMO 26, FJ 26, TSG 40+, ONE 36+, LVCI. 18, MEDQ 32, RLR 36+, MTX, fell even lower....even APA fell 6....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ?
You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between
NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns !
Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at
all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously
formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns
from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Health-relateds (THC, UQM, HEB, TMD ?, HMA, TXB, NHC, EAR, STE ?, TCA ?, NHP)
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, HM, most all real cheapies,
riskier, some may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, FLO, WH),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Internet-ralted (scary, close stops) SEEK, TBFC, ATHM, ONSL, ABTL, etc.
emerging groups ?: "Medical/Hospital/Health", "Athletics/Shoes", and, Foods, soon ? "Brokers/Online", may have developing V.S.T. bottoms....but not yet.... and/but, some busted REIT's, like, WEA, FCH, PRT, for possible income/dividends, plus price upside....this may jive with the depressed health/REIT/hospital/HMO stocks, like, VTR, LWN, NHP, MT, etc., we are watching (which have no dividends, of course) ?
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for
your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some"
of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once....
since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they
pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, CBG, GG, FLS, ASO, SEEK, TBFC, FLO, SEV, TWA, TO, MWHS, THC, PIR, PBY, TRL, SCS, HEB, to, BWL/A, TCA, IMG, VTR, TMD, TG, RTI, MGL, HBI, HMY, SYNX, CHY, GV, RXSD, FC, HWD, RAH, USI, HLX, ESOL, TSA, TRL, STK, TKR, CKP, UNA, MCL, LWN, OMM, LTV, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, SEV, IT, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats": SWK, NETA, DMI, BMG, GFD, IBC, BFO, HMA, HRS, SGI, JM, TE, CASY, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, TXB, IO., MSN, SAMC, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main.... which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real
mish-mosh: adding, BXM, SDH, CGI, CTX, CNB, to, ELY, AGE, ADSK, MGL, PRT, SVE, CHB, CTK, ONSL, FWC, NHC, FNL, NCT, ORB, ONX, HLX, NPSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....
They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn
the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: VISX, HAE, IDPH, etc.
Energy, Services: BRR, RDC, COG, EQT, etc.,
other "Techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below here....
**** others, and new ones: many more added, ADIC, AGX, BCE, CXY, DIGX, FFIV, IBIS, IVX, LD, LSI, MMM, PHCM, PHG, QLGC, RHAT, SDLI, TSI., VSEA, to, ARBA, ARMHY, ASML, ANTC, CLRN, CUB, ETN, GENZ, JBL, LMG/A, MACR, PNR, PSDI, SLR, SONC, VNWK, WCII, ZBRA, and, ARTC, ATML, BVF, CBRNA, DYN, NBL, QLTI, SSCC, TCB, WLM, SEWY, FOSL, DOV, DNA, JCI, GDT, GDW, JPM, MWD, SPW, ACV, TAM, ALGX, GMST, MEDI, INSS, MSFT, NTLI, HLIT, SNDK, SANM, DOX, TLAB, AHAA, DST, FLM, MUSE, ADVS, KSS, PVY, STM, ECP, CDI, CLS, DOX, BC, HWP, VISX, VTSS, FDS, PEB, EXDS, SUI., HWP, RSC, SNPS, ACS, ADRX, CAKE, GE, HON, ITW, KWP, PB, JNPR, RNWK, ROI.A, SFX, ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, PKS, from recent past NL's,
and, including, as potential "EVT's" (exhaustion V tops): JDSU, IDPH, ELF, SCF, HLIT, etc., I am sure you see others....
but, note, some of the above have already pulled back off highs, so one wants
only to Put them, if at all, into rallies, yes ? but, it IS a long list, yes ?
don't fight the tape....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: "Paper", "Publishing", "Banks, on strength only",
Machy./Cap. Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev.,
Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun.,
Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their
patterns....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: new: (re-read my "Media" booklet) I know this is just a "So. Calif." item, but, a helpful letter to the editor, 9/19, titled, "Toll Road Miscalculations", had a "PSYCLE sm" lesson in it, which applies to EVERYONE: namely, that, when govt. sources or powerful newspapers make incorrect big, public predictions, they rarely are called on it, and rarely get punished or even have to correct their serious mistakes, after they are wrong....the letter said (paraphrasing),
"if someone predicted a sports team would win, and ended up being wrong, the ramifications would be minor, and temporary at worst. If someone predicted mass chaos would/will occur 1/1/2000, and ended up being wrong, people would probably end up thanking him for preparing for the worst. But, when/if a huge, expensive, taxpayer-paid project like a "toll road", doesn't come close to meeting predicted projected results, many are hurt. And when the local powerful newspapers keep reporting negative stories, sometimes, 'predictions' become self-fulfilling."
More reason to ignore 95 % of everything out there....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....