1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) note, exactly as I was first/only to foresee herein for you, the "10-yr. T-bond chart" did indeed prtend a S.T. pop in I.R.'s, already.... 2) allied, note S.T. declines I was, again, the first and certainly the only guy, to have predicted well, yet again, among many Extended Financial groups/stocks.... 3) and, might some Food/Grocery, and Aero./Def., issues improve soon ? if so, I will again be the first to notice and share that.... 4) so cash Crude Oil must rise forever , ay ? already down 15 % at least S.T., note declines only I predicted herein for you, in Energy/Oil Service stocks, many laready down towards their initial downside levels, 200 DMA's....now too late to begin to buy puts on them, dig ? ....5) in addition to the supposedly 'bulletproof' Commun. stocks down a bunch, as the 'overpaid analysts' blew it, note further drop in EK, LXK, PRD, etc., in the 'printing' biz, hah....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) a totally BS story by another ignorant CNBC gal reporter, Fri., 8:40, polled investors at local discount firm (dont get me started), and concluded, "the consensus here seems to be that, regardless of the S.T. direction, the market will go up eventually"....? Gee, thanks, for nothing.... 2) a VERY misleading headline, 9/22, L.A.T., "Schwab stock soars amid merger rumors....", when, in fact, it had previously fallen/broken lows, nicely, and only popped that day, maybe 4, to 34....certainly NOT "soared", dig ? next....re-read my "Scenarios" and "Media" booklets.... 3) the idiots at CNBC, Mon., 12:15, misleadingly headlined, "Lucent stock got hammered today, falling to under $ 31", when, in fact, it is no longer down much anymore, having Already fallen from 84 in Dec. '99, when they reported so bullishly on it, right ?, next.... 4) Tom (don't get me started) Petruno, 9/24, L.A.T., finally getting bullish L.T. on the US dollar (late, as usual, when I, on TV, was the among the very first guys to predict its previous rise, several years ago), commenting on the huge drop in INTC stock (which , as usual, he did not predict), actually wrote, "which side was the smarter, at $ 47, the sellers or the buyers, we'll have to wait and see".....uh, gee, I wonder, the holders from over 70, who sold under 50, quickly ? or the sellers over 70 ? amazing....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) those two useless/lucky guys L.A.T., 9/19, both love MGG up here, and both hate UIS, down here....the oppposite of how I see them, dig ? ....2) this one is classic: recall recently how all the ignorant analysts said that companies like GT would obviously benefit from Fireston'es misfortunes ? well, I got you into GT around 20, out at 27 on the news (the pattern rarely changes), and/but, now, under 20, so all those managers have losses for their clients....ha.... 3) Tue., Germany announced they will be seloing their 58 % stake in "DT", right near its low, only after big drop the did nothing to protect their people during, which only I predicted herein for you.... recall, I was also the first to predict its previous rise, from the $ 20. area, when on TV, in 1998.... where are the accolades ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) recall when I mentioned Carl Icahn buying GM, late ? well, last week, he said he had sold his stake (don't get me started), for a small gain only, not even near recent S.T. top....only held for 4-5- weeks....are people so starved to follow a guy like that, vs. learning and employing a great concept on their own, with higher returns, like mine ? yup....he 'only' made 4-5- %, in a month (nice)....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
1/2 pos. puts PWER (89- to 55+) for VQ 133% Gain....bal. puts MYGN (80+ to 56+) for VQ 125% G....bal. calls TCC (11 to 14+) for 125% G....bal. puts ADCT (44 to 32) for Q 100% G....bal. calls BKS (17+ to 21) for Q 90% G....bal. calls QCOM (61 to 74) for VVQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts CHRT (86- to 65) for Q 100% G....bal. puts BJS (70 to 54+) for 90% G....1/2 pos. puts LLTC (73 to 60-) for Q 80% G.... 1/2 pos. puts RSYS (57- to 48+) for VQ 66% G....all puts SYK (46+ to 39-) for 75% G....all puts RDC (33 to 27) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. puts HAL (54+ to 46++) for VQ 66% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. HRC (5 5/8 to 7 1/2) for L.T. 66% G....1/2 pos. puts NVDA (80 to 68+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts MER (72- to 61) for VVVQ 60% G.... 1/2 pos. BRL (75- to 65) for Q 55% G....all puts TWTR (39+ to 34+) for VQ 55% G ....1/2 pos. puts TOT (80 to 72-) for VQ 40% G....
and/but, longs, DPH (14+ to 16+ to 14+), MRCH, NOIZ, LQID, KDE ?, TWA, ROST, BCC ?, SONE, NOW ?, PZN, PLC ?, AM ?, BS, JCP, GP, MMG, WGO, WNC, WMO, KDE ?, AMI. ?, HMK, and, puts, ACL, CAKE, FRX, TEVA, NETE, ELNT, EMC, MGG, UNH, SKYW, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....too many QSL's recently, but no real damage, and mostly overcome by more, and bigger, Gains....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. ABS @ 20+, 1/2 pos. AEN @ 1.81, 1/2 pos. AGS @ ?, 1/2 pos. ATHM @ 13++ ?, 1/2 pos. ATYT @ 8+, AU @ 18, BDX @ 24+, 1/2 pos. CPB @ 24+, 1/2 pos. CTT @ 8+, 1/2 pos. CTV @ 24, 1/2 pos. DIR @ 6++, 1/2 pos. ELNK @ 10- ?, 1/2 pos. ERICY @ 16+, 1/2 pos. ENT @ 36, 1/2 pos. ENTU @ 23+, EWB @ 19+, 1/2 pos. FFA @ 22+ ?, HLIT @ 23+, 1/2 pos. HLTH @ 12+, 1/2 pos. INAP @ 26+ ?, 1/2 pos. K. @ 23+, 1/2 pos. LOR @ 6++, 1/2 pos. NEON @ 22+ ?, SSCC @ 11+, TSP @ 15+, UCR @ 12 1/8, 1/2 pos. VIGN @ 30-, 1/2 pos. VNTR @ 10++, 1/2 pos. WB @ 55+, 1/2 pos. XRX @ 15+ ?
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4, AEN @ 1 13/16, AII. @ 8, AMI. @ 1.31, AU @ 18+, AZC @ 0.85, BBI. @ 9, BD @ 3 5/8, BEOS @ 4, BGO @ 0.405 ?, BLS @ 36, BYD @ 4 3/8, CAT @ 34+, CAU 0.87, CHINA @ 15-, CMB @ 45+, CN @ 4+, COVD @ 13+, DK @ 6-, DROOY @ 15/16, ECO no, EMA @ 8, HDG @ 1.00, HMK @ 4 3/8, IHK @ 1.03, JBOH @ 4+, KRY @ 1.31, LZB ?, MAT @ 10, NSC @ 15-, NOW @ 0.40 ?, NTLI. @ 37+, OCN @ 5.47, PER @ 10, PKS nah, PLC no, RHAT @ 19+, SIEB @ 7+, SPLS @ 14-, SVU @ 15+, TGX @ 6++, TNB @ 17++ ?, UPM @ 24 1/2, USU @ 4 1/8, WAB @ 9++, WIN @ 13++, WYN @ 2, XDSL @ 6, ZMBA @ 5-...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, SCII, CD, INAI, NTG, AZO, EAG, CTB, JWN, PBY, CMGI, BI, EK, CVM, CDO, AL, SWM, IFF, OSE, GT, KANA, ESPI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
(new ones): 1/2 pos. ABK @ 70, CBL @ 25+, 1/2 pos. CHKP @ 156+, EXPD @ 49+, 1/2 pos. FLEX ?, SANM @ 108-, VRSN @ 198+,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') CHRW @ 60-, CYN @ 40++, FCEL @ 92, GDW no, GSPN @ 146, INRS @ 46+, SLR @ 49+, SRNA @ 45+, VTSS @ 89++....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, BRCD, AGN, NYFX, MLNM, MMCN, SEBL, MUSE, SCH, TUTS, BUD, SWCM, CDIS, OAKT, HHS, HOT, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", FFD, CBJ, COST, SILI, WTT, MLS, MAH, OPI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, HGSI, MMCN, NVLS, SGY, BSTE, AXP, TUTS, CAKE, NMSS, BSTE, CTS, APH, ABT, ST, GRP, HOT, UNH, APWR, and others removed from sec. (7) below, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
CTT 9 3/8 up 1, HLIT 28 up 4 1/2, ENTU 27.18 up 3.81, ERICY 17 3/4 up 1 3/4, MRCH 18 7/8 up 1 5/8, DL 11.31 up 0.81, ATYT 8.93 up 0.75, HLTH 13.18 up 1.18, EWB 21.06 up 1.87, BKS 21.43 up 1 (S), CPB 26.06 up 1.56, BLS 38 3/8 up 2 3/4, INAP 28 1/2 up 2 1/4, ABS 21.43 up 0.87, CMB 46 5/8 up 1 5/8, ENT 37 3/8 up 1 5/8, GLT 11 3/8, HRC 7 3/4, DK 6 3/8, BPL 28.68, AAI. 4 3/8, USU 4 5/8, IOM 5 3/8, DOW 25 1/8, TSP 16, SSCC 11 3/4, EMA 8.98, PER 11 1/8, SVU 16 3/8, higher, since last time here.... and, BN 24, PPRO. 90, FED 21+, even higher still....and, GLT, hit its 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
CSCQ 4 1/8 up 1/2, NTLI. 40+ up 3, ZMBA 4.93, 5.50, 4.83, EWB 19 5/8, HLIT 24 1/4, BLS 35.93, 38.62, XDSL, SPLS 13.68, 15.56, 13.75, EMA 8.20, MUEI, WIN, BEOS 4, 4.46, ERICY 16 1/2, OHI, SIEB 7 3/8, HRC, ARG, QCOM 69, 75 1/2 (S), UPM, JBOH 4, EMA 8, VZ, CPWR 8.59, NOVL, USU 4.31, HLIT 26, STEI, GY, CAT, CMH, TNB, ASA, PMTC, ESR, IKN 4 3/8, RHAT 20 1/2 up 1 3/8, CN, ASHW 5.81, BD, HOV, R., BLS 37 3/8, DCLK 36 1/2, VZ, HMK, HA, ALI, KDE 18 1/8, BBI, BYD, CORL, PHC, SSCC 11.31, OHI, CAU, LZB 14 1/4, ATYT 8 3/8, NOW, MLG, HCM, VGZ.... some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) COVD 13.12, 15.18, AMI. 1.25, LRW, WIN 13.93, 14.50, DIR, XDSL 6, ECO, HMK 4.31, TNB, VNWK, NOW, STEI, CHINA 14 3/4, SPLS, MEA, CPWR, LZB 14-, BCC 24 3/4, DK 6-, BD 3 1/2, TGX, PMTC, PLC, AMI. 1.25, KDE 18, RAD, WGO, BKS, HOV, PKS, NSC 14.81, MLG, AM 16.75, TNB, ASL, NOW, IHK, UPM, AN, USU, UPM, BTO....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
PWER -21 (S), ITWO -18, LLTC -6, +2, -6, VRSN -10, CHKP -10, VTSS -9, TOT -8, INFA -7 1/2, MER -6, GS -6, BJS -5 (S), SRNA -4 1/2, BRL -4 1/2, RSYS -5, DVN -4 1/4, HAL -3, CHRT -5, NVDA -4 1/2, SANM -5, EXPD -4, TWTR -3 1/2 (S), LSS -2 1/2, WFT -4 1/2, GR -1 5/8, NBL -3, GS -2, PDS -1 1/2, GDW -1, CYN -2, BHI. -1 3/8, SYK -1 (S), HAL -1, lower, since last NL here....and, SCH, SYK, RSYS, TWTR, HAL, NBL, PDS, RDC, BSTE, ADCT, WFT, LLTC, fell to/approached their 200 DMA....and, BRL, down to their 50 DMA....and, VIA 56-, PRIA 22, IRF 51, TBH, MU 50, down lower still....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (ALI, OHI, TGX, BSX, HRC, HLTH, BDX, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, MLS, BNP, ALI, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, AII, etc.)
Retails/Apparel/Merchandise/Office (ASHW (opbo), DK, BBI, SPLS, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (NSC, BD, WAB, R, AAI, UNP, F, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious" (USU, ASA, BMG, FCX, AU ?, DROOY, CBJ, etc.), Housing (WYN, LZB, CMH tln, CN, etc.), Paper (GLT, BCC, GP, MEA, SSCC, etc.), Food-related (CKR, SVU, FFA, DOL, IHK, BLM, CPB, K, FFA, etc.), Banks (opbo), Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., Grocery (WIN, ABS), and Precious Metals, Leisure/Travel/Toys, Industry Groups....
"busted techs" (CHINA ?, NOW ?, KDE ?, ATYT, CPWR, PER, XDSL, RHAT, HLIT, ENTU, and those below ?)
and, notice, re-adding previously-given-at-lows-before-recent-pops, other busted Techs, here and below,
and, Online Brokers/Financials ? (SIEB, JBOH, DIR, CMB, WB, STI, XRX, etc.)
and, Commun. (COVD, XDSL, BLS, etc.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
add, (in no particular order !): DCN, CK, BGP, RT, SR, REP, NCI, PT, TSP ?, NAV ?, K, VIGN, INCY ?, INAP, TRRA, PUMA, VERT ?, MSTR, OPTV, PLB, AIB, DRTN, AFWY, CTXS, CMCSA, CNET, EFNT, DGTC, ABS ?, ENGA, CMB, HPC, BXS, GEMS, F, NEON, MRD ?, AIB ?, NTG no, PCLN no ?, IFC, SGC, AEN, TEC, EMA, CTT, CA, ENT, BOY, AGS, SEE ?, RLC ?, to, MLS, DCLK, FNT, LOR, BOY, UVA ?, MMS eh, ETYS, VNTR, TMG, ECO no, GRA, IN, UVA ?, OBJX, ORCT, FSW, NTN, MAH, REY, VZ, FDO, ELNK, RBC, AMI, BLM ?, FND ?, QSC, BGO ?, UCR, WTT, MAI. ?, JS ?, FBN, NTN, EX, AU, BMC, PHC, CKP, GSTRF, JBM, HEC no, ATX, CORL, MDG, PII, CCL, FSW, IKN, CTO, XCL, AM, MAT, IT, DL, TSO, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, MLS, JDN....
and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, JBL, FLEX ?, CEFT, PMCS ?, ELNT no ?, NMSS, VRSN, EOG, ABK, APWR, to, DIS, CHKP, BLDP, HGSI. ?, FCEL, INFA, IWOV, MVSN, TOY, MER, GS, GR, GDW, EXPD, EXTR, VTSS, SANM ?, CBL ?, to, MEDI, APH, ADI, CYN, SLR, INRS, GE, CHRW, ARBA, AUDC, to,
(repeats) BRCM, FLSH, NVLS, VRSN, SSTI, MTG, DVN, BSC, LSCC, XLNX, PSEM, ANEN, GSPN, ATON ?, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, from recent past NL's....some Semis declibned to their initial downside levels, already....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES