1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) obviously, our non-cheapie Gold stocks are rising as expected, and "cash Gold" hit 272., but still has resistance in the 280-290 area regardless, and might get up there....watching closely....with 'sentiment' getting too bullish, too quickly, again, I just don't think these stocks will reach their April/May recovery highs, yet....that said, the "XAU" index, has supoport in the 69- area.... 2) as predicted, the London FTSE index made a new low.... 3) as I said recently, the DJ. Util. Avg. from around 291+, should begin a S.T. bottoming process, but may take a while... 4) note more declines among the Energy/Services stocks we were among the first/only to give herein as Puts near their highs....with my special L.T. track record in this particular I.G., you'd think more people would have acted to take advantage, without impatience.... 5) note further drops among P & C and Insur. stocks.... showing the value of using stops, when one diversifies, and an I.G. breaks their pattern.... 6) the Russell 2000 index, broke its "neckline" recently....projects perhaps 10 % lower.... 7) note I added more depressed Internet/Broker stocks in section (7) below.... 8) all of a sudden, I have noticed a TON of "insider selling" among extended Semiconductor-and-related stocks....good for us ? I have yet to hear/read this reportd ANYWHERE, have you ? Gee, didn't the overpaid "recently super-bullish-analysts' even know about that ? ....9) the "home/building" I.G. which I recently suggested, is not quite ready for a bottom, but bears watching....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from
the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) amazing, Thu. late, CNBC had Dick Davis on (a guy I do respect, BTW), putting "Wall of Worry" on the screen....late, as usual, and WRONG, as usual....historically, items "Climb" a "wall of worry".... stocks do not FALL on a "wall of worry" ! amazing.... 2) you know that "E- trade" commercial I allkuded to negatively when I predicted the "online broker" stocks would top, a while ago ? well, I realize, that, in that commercial, the "boss' buys "KM", at $ 18. or so....and, of course, recentlky, it has fallen to the $ 11+ area, get it ? even the stock he bought (too high, and without a stop, of course) was wrong.... 3) Mon., 27 th, 8:35 am, Bob Pisani (only AFTER their stocks rose, right ?) actually reported how "bullish" it is/was that Gold companies have hedged at over $ 300. (which I pointed out to you earlier), which is interesting, since, during their "depressed bases", when they were better buys, he never reported A NYTHING positive, dig ? the pattern never changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) note MSPG fell, 20 %, on the "merger announcement", Thu., hah.... 2) "the Media" is blaming recent Tech. drops on comments by Steve Ballmer, MSFT ceo....yeah, right ....God forbid execs and The Media would learn the real patterns behind most stock price moves, but, I guess, in their semi-greed, and blinders, they don't have $ 99. to learn this from me....what a shame.... 3) according to CNBC, Fri., 10 am, evidently, MSFT's Steve Ballmer's comment yesterday, that "all Tech. stocks are grossly overvalued", was an answer to a reporter's question, "What story do you think The Media has Not covered lately ?" Then, the analysts said, as usual in this stage of their "PSYCLE sm", "even if the next few months are rocky, if you look ahead long-term, good companies will reward investors"....oy.....So, never take advantage, in puts, right ? and, never use stops, right ? ....4) a useless analyst/money mgr. for Lord Abbot fund, Fri., CNBC, 10:55 am, when asked about MYG, actually said, "they have made a mistake....if they don't fix it, you might have to wait for the next cycle...." Interesting, because, first, the caller-in is obviously a loser, having held MYG without a stop, from 74 to 38, second, this mgr. only says they "made a mistake", Now, only AFTER the stock has fallen big-time (where was he near the top ?), and, third, by the time a guy like him "sees" "the next cycle", it will already have based, and will likely be UP off the lows a good amount, right ? the pattern never changes....Re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets....see, analysts almost always MISS turning points in stocks....then they just tell you that what happened, should have happened, when, in fact, they never foresaw the previous move, in the first place, dig ? 'nuff said.... 5) re: "CKR" stock, the CNBC guy I mentioned here, had said there were Insider Buys, when, now I learn, there were Insider SALES, after its drop, most upsetting that I was misled, and CNBC said no retraction.... 6) L.A. Times, 9/25, bullishly newly highlighted "CYN" City Natl., stock, showing L.T. chart with nice recent top, already way up from under $ 10., to under $ 40.,l too late of course, and when/if can get under $ 30, look out, absent a takeover....just four your education, check it out....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Thu. after the close, Mark Keller, AGE, used my least favorite word again, saying, "it's a biforcated market"....have these guys actually tried to look that word up in a dictionary ? ....2) and, now only AFTER the recent rise, all the "commodity pitchmen" are pushing Gold options, predicting huge gains, etc. The pattern never changes.... 3) on KWHY-tv, Fri., 9:45 am, D. Peisner, is back on, showing buying only the highest relative strength (RS), showing "sample charts" of stocks already way, way up, without even showing any of their names or details....amazing....she kept mentioning and reading caveats, discalimers, and "SEC regulations require that we...." over and over, meaning, it is likely she has had such problems....Oh, and, keep in mind, if one ONLY goes long extended stocks, one will never make money on declines....she also never mentioned portfolio mgmt., diversification, targets, nor stops....'nuff said.... 4) Warberg, Dillon, Read, Fri. 24 th, finally lowered their opinion on "ALL", from "strong buy" (all the way down, mind you), to "hold" at $ 28.... amazing, huh....the pattern never changes....5) L.A. Times, 9/25: "Bad News for Drivers: OPEC (production) Cuts to Stay"....showing 8-year charts of Crude and Gas prices, up near obvious resistance, of course, too late to "warn" their readers, which should have been done a while ago, dig ? "the 95 %" are now calling for $ 25- 30. oil, yes ? don't bet on it....meanwhile, as I said when I called a top in those stocks herein, local gas prices in So. Calif. stopped rising weeks ago....
e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) L.A. Times, editorial, "It's Sale Time on Amercian Jobs", Seth Bonner, mentioned a Senate trade bill to spend $ 1. Bill. U.S. to subsidize huge companies, like, Sara Lee, Fruit of Loom, Wal-Mart, the Gap, other apparel companies, eliminating tariffs in 24 Caribbean countries....Many such companies have evidently already incorporated in those countries, to avoid paying taxes in/to the USA....now, 60 % to 90 % of the mfg. base in those countries are now U.S. companies....and wages paid to workers there have fallen precipitously ....Meaning: the govt. "says" that promoting more exports from those countries would somehow help their economies, but, instead, lower wages to those workers, will keep them from being able to afford to buy our products created there....Hey, I love and support level-playing-field capitalism with every breath I take, but, again, we see how a deceptive govt. Bill won't help us or them....just some already-huge companies who avoid paying much taxes due to political loophole junk....Certainly, NOT a level playing field, ay ? So, you and I pay our tax dollars to those few huge companies, so they don't have to pay taxes....great system, huh....there are tons of similar examples in our great economy, worldwide, as you probably know....no one cares....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best
individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts SNDK (89 to 65+) for VQ 200% Gain....1/2 pos. puts SCAI. (48+ to 32-) for 175% G....1/2 pos. puts GDT (62+ to 47-) for Q 150% G....1/2 pos. calls CNS (16 to 21-) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. SAMC (5+ to 7+) for 66% G.... bal. puts LMG/A (37+ to 33+) for Q 44% G....1/2 pos. Puts COG (19+ to 16+) for VQ 66% G....bal. calls LNCR (25+ to 27) for VQ, small % G....
and/but, longs, ABTL, SIF, HBI, TWA, USI., TMD ?, and, puts, MUSE, GMST, for more, quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....been too many of them lately....rare.... and, as you have seen, many are "iffy" sales....up to you....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) ALU @ 6+, BE @ , BWL/A @ 7, HBI. @ 4, SDH @ 14+, TSA @ 3+,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ABTL @ 13++, ASO @ 21+, ATHM @ , CASY @ 13.06, CAU @ 0.16, CCH @ 3/16, CDE @ 4, CHB @ 8 3/8, CPQ @ , CTK @ 8-, CYB @ 4-, DAY @ 0.065, ECO @ 1 1/4, FLO @ , FNL @ 4 7/8, GFD @ 9+, GRERF @ 1/8, GSR @ 7/16, GV @ 0.31, HMA @ 7+, HMY @ 4 9/16, KRY @ 9/16, MSN @ 9/16, NHC @ 6 1/8, NHP @ 15+, ONSL @ , SCS @ 14+, SEEK @ 28-, STE @ , SWK @ 25-, TBFC @ 21, TCA @ 6 3/4, THC @ 16+, TO @ 11+, TRL @ 7 9/16, TSC @ 4 5/16, TXB @ 3 5/8, UQM @ 4 1/8, VBAC @ 1 3/16, VGZ, WTT @ 1 3/4, "the T-bond @ 113+"....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still 'Not that great' a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have
subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may
have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE
viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who
DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all,
for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, ADSK, PBY, GV, LTV, LPX, WEA, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) IBIS @ 35, KMET @ ,
"Repeats": (note, added names) AGX @ 48-, ARMHY @ 45-, ASML @ 68-, CXY @ 19+, DIGX @ 31-, DSCP @ 35+, HAE @ , JDSU @ 116+, NTLI. @ 100, PLX @ 19++, PVY @ 29+, QLTI. @ 81+, STM @ 79+, TAM @ 12+, TSI. @ 29, TYC @ 104+, VNWK @ 44....
note, DSCP, TYC, QLTI, TAM, STM, NTLI, others, remained near highs, allowing you plenty of opportunity to get into their Puts, yes ?
and/but, took, ARBA ?, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", ELNK, HSIC, PIR, AGE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, QLGC, IDPH, CCL, CHA, XLI., SU, OEI, DGX, UCR, D., OSI., ADTN, PLMD, ZOMX, CDCO, DOV, PCH, GLM, P., VSEA, EFII., as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
ECO 1 7/8 up 1/2, NEM 26 3/8 up 4 7/8, BGO 3/4 up 3/16, HM 9 3/8 up 1 1/4, TPN 8 7/8 up 1, CNS 20 7/8 up 2, TO. 11 3/4 up 5/8, FLO 15 3/4 up 3/4, SDH 15 1/8, SEV 3 1/4, PDG 12, BMG 2 1/4, CKP 9 1/2, NHP 16, the T-bond 114 3/8 up 1, higher, since last time here....and the CRB index over 205., as well....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: CDE 4 3/4 up 3/4, APFC 8 1/4 up 3/4, TBFC 21, 22, 21, ATHM 36, MTSI. 17 1/2, CPQ 22 3/4, IFMX 8-, OJ 6 5/8, CNS 19-, NPK, TCA, WH, SEEK, MCL, ASO, THC, TSC, UFC, CPU, HMA, HOC, NWK, CCC, ATC, SWK, SYNX, CASY, AVM, ONSL, CHY, PMC, CSR, STE, LDW, ESOL, FWC, TXB, NPSI, RLC, GFD, TKR, TPS, NHC, WTT, TBP, FNL, MSN, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) FWC 11+, ATHM, TXB, WTT, APFC, CCC, LWN, TRL, MWHS, CSR, SWK, FLO, MWHS, HMA, SWK, STE, CHY, TCA, LDW, GFD, HOC, HCM, HIV, SSC, CAU, MSN, TG....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
HLIT -19, SNDK -11, JDSU -10, MEDI. -10, ARTC -9 1/2, KLAC -9, HWP -7, TYC -6, ATML -5 1/2, ADIC -5 1/2, SANM -6, ALD -4 1/2, AHAA -4 1/2, WCII. -5, ASML -4, MSFT -6, ADRX -3 1/2, SDLI. -4, GDT -3 1/2 (sow), MACR -2 1/2, WFT -2 1/2 (sow), ZBRA -2, ANTC -2, POWI. -2, TSI. -2, RDC -2, ARMHY -1 1/2, JBL -1 1/2, IBIS -2, BVF -1 1/2, PLX -1 1/2, BA -1 1/2, COG -1 1/4, BIO/A -1, KSS -1, SONC -1 1/4, SSCC -1, PKY -1, BRR -1, SCAI. -1 1/2, DIGX, SEWY, CAKE, FLM, ECL (sow), ACV, DYN, ILN, JCI., SPW, BCE, lower, still, since last NL here....
*** for the last time: see these patterns ? note, how, AT, ASD, DSP, SUI, ROK (S), TOT (S), DST (S), KSS, SJM, COG (sow), the S & P index, fell to their 200 DMA's.... while, LMG/A (S), BPA (sow), KSS, BHI. (S), FOSL (S), SCAI., BA, WFT, SCAI, SCNYB, SONC, USFC, MIL, ALD, ETN, DLX, FLM, CUB, are approaching their 200 DMA's....and, MEDI, fell to its 50 DMA....and, PE 36-, FON 51, FMC 51, FMO 26, FJ 26, TSG 40+, ONE 34+, LVCI. 18, TOM 28-, UHS 24, TOT 60-, MHP 48+, FMC 46+, ROK 50-, MMC 62, MEA 35, MEDQ 32, RLR 36+, CBE 47+, LEA 35, BRK/B, DD 59, AFL 42-, JPM 115, HDI. 46, RTN/A 44, W. 25+, MTX, UNM, all were given you here near their highs, herein, all fell even lower....even P., reversed and fell....and most SPDR's and WEB's securities also topped, as suggested, and fell recently....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ?
You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between
NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns !
Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at
all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously
formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns
from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Health-relateds (ALU, THC, UQM, HEB, TMD ?, HMA, TXB, NHC, EAR, STE ?, TCA, NHP)
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, KRY, DAY, BGO, HM, cheapies are riskier, may need more work/time)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, FLO, WH),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Internet-and-Online Broker-ralated (scary, close stops) SEEK, TBFC, ATHM, ONSL, more below, etc.
emerging groups ?: "Medical/Hospital/Health", "Athletics/Shoes", and, Foods, soon ? and/but, some busted REIT's, like, WEA, FCH, PRT, WIR, IMH, for possible income/dividends, plus price upside....this may jive with the depressed health/REIT/hospital/HMO stocks, like, VTR, LWN, NHP, MT, etc., we are watching (which have no dividends, of course) ?
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for
your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some"
of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once....
since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they
pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, ALU, BE, CBG, GG, FLS, ASO, SEEK, TBFC, FLO, SEV, TO, MWHS, THC, PIR, TRL, SCS, HEB, to, BWL/A, TCA, IMG, TMD, TG, RTI, MGL, HMY, SYNX, RXSD, FC, HWD, RAH, HLX, ESOL, TSA, STK, TKR, CKP, UNA, MCL, LWN, OMM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, SEV, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats": SWK, NETA, DMI, BMG, GFD, IBC, BFO, HMA, HRS, SGI, JM, TE, CASY, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, TXB, IO., MSN, SAMC, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main.... which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real
mish-mosh: adding, add, AZC, AN, BDX, AGE, PIR, ALB, FLE, ENN, FTL, HBI, NCE, AW, HMT, CPU, IMH, WIR, CPTH, MSPG, SIEB, NTBK, PCCC, to, BXM, SDH, CGI, CTX, CNB, to, MGL, CHB, CTK, ONSL, FWC, NHC, FNL, ONX, HLX, NPSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns.... don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....
They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn
the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: VISX, HAE, IDPH, etc.
Energy, Services: BRR, RDC, COG, EQT, etc.,
other "Techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below here....
**** others, and new ones: many more, added, ARC, RPC, CNG, HPK, SU, DGX, ADTN, EFII., EMLX, HOMS, INKT, LLTC, MXIM, NXLK, PESC, PLMD, QRSI., SAWS, ZOLL, VVTV, CYTC, to, ADIC, AGX, BCE, CCL, CXY, DIGX, FFIV, IBIS, IVX, LD, LSI, MMM, PHCM, PHG, QLGC, RHAT, SDLI, TSI., VSEA, to, ARBA, ARMHY, ASML, ANTC, CLRN, ETN, GENZ, JBL, MACR, SLR, SONC, VNWK, WCII, ZBRA, to, ARTC, ATML, BVF, CBRNA, DYN, NBL, QLTI, SSCC, TCB, WLM, SEWY, DOV, JCI, GDW, JPM, MWD, SPW, ACV, TAM, ALGX, MEDI, INSS, MSFT, NTLI, HLIT, SANM, DOX, TLAB, AHAA, DST, FLM, MUSE, ADVS, KSS, PVY, STM, ECP, CDI, CLS, DOX, BC, HWP, VISX, VTSS, FDS, PEB, EXDS, SNPS, ACS, ADRX, CAKE, GE, KWP, PB, JNPR, RNWK, SFX, ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, PKS, from recent past NL's,
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., Energy, Leisure, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....of course, many issues are already down now, so fewer "still near their highs", right ?
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: new: I have an inkling, that, with recent (sometimes unwarranted) compliance fears among B-firms, that, more and more brokers are abdicating the stock-choosing and timing decisions, by sloughing-off gathered monies to mediocre outside managers, making those brokers nothing more than agressive money gatherers/salespeople who are afraid or unable to manage money properly themselves, and/or, by supposedly only buying high RS, "big-name stocks", they figure that, even if they are wrong, investors will not sue them, because "at least we bought them high-quality companies", dig ? what do you think ?
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....