1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) as only I predicted/expected recently, Wed., CNBC reported that "mortgages and refinancings are up + 33 % and +40 % in just the last week"....partly due to lower rates, and partly because people (may) need the money, dig ? ....2) removed most Semi. stocks from pot. B. list....no judgement, just pattern breaks, no biggie.... 3) another potentially decent sign, as a NL rag I get emailed unsolicited every day, 'The Bull market Report" (uh, wrong, so far, for months now, get it ? but I digress), just removed all 'small cap portfolios' from its 'watching lists'....dig ? another sign of probable impending bottoms, right ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) I stopped listening to CNBC's Joe Kernan a long time ago, but now his vioce actually upsets me, wonder what that means....he must know this from thousands of viewers.... 2) finally, Thu., as expected in the pattern, CNBC highlighted the Aero./Satellite/Defense stocks which, of course, had ALREADY risen recently 'linked' to the WTC, etc., with analysts unanimous in their liking them now.....you know what this normally would mean forward....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) once again, the 95 % are/wrong, only Wed. saying, on CNBC, "the consensus is Crude may fall to the $ 20-21 area"....well, duh, it already HAD/DID fall(en) from 29+ (where they were super-bullish, yes ?) TO $ 21+....the reaction never changes each PSYCLE stage.... 2) added some depr. Lodging stocks as EVB's...."but, Jim, no way, fundamentally, Airlines, Travel, Lodging, can ever rise again...." the 95 % will never learn, ay ? ....3) an amazingly illustrative story Fri. CNBC, 7:30, about a 6-person panel who supposedly "waits till after a bottom to call recessions".... full-time....I am not kidding....this one is so useless it defies all logic, but they did just say USA is in one....too late, and of course, this is probably bullish for our stocks....uh, they did not say who pays them for being useless....nor their V.L.T. past T.R., dig ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) got another bone to pick with L. navallier, a good guy I do respect and like, but whose recent email come-ons for subscribers, fails to point out his big losses in his 'fundamental earnings winners' stocks, which, of course, he failed to sell/protect from highs....he still very much lkikes, HDI, AGN, PSFT, LTR, "because they continue to beat street eps estimates" ....we shall see....I wish him well.... 2) and I wonder why B. Schaeffer abdicated his last 2 NL emails.... 3) this one was great, illustrative: Fri., Merrill finally lowered their opinions on Oil Service stocks - late, low, with big unstopped losses from when they loved them near hgihs of course - but also said, they don't want to give a sell on them, because they are down so much (uh, huh)....but they would not buy them at recent lows....Brings a tear to my eye that they actually take $ and have such a forum for useless output like that, ay ?
4) CNBC says the aged John Templeton is NOT bullish much at all....he said "stocks are still very overvalued, because they were so overvalued a while ago"....uh, excuse me ? I respect him immensely, but realized a while ago, that his real, L.T. performance was really not that special....many others beat him in the last 20 years many times, in performance, M. Fund-wise....in fact.... and, as I said, cruel as it may sound ALL legends fade in performance (Lynch, Buffet, etc.), afetr their time in the sun....he is probably not correct again here.... 5) fading that "Bull Market Report" email NL, Fri., they actually finally said, "lower oil prices could put a damper on your oil svc. stock portfolio" - hey, thanks for nothing, guys, since they had ALREADY fallen a ton, unpredicted by that NL, dig ? so we have found another well-backed somehow, but mostly useless tome, ay ?
e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) you should already know my opinion on a myriad of levels of recent events....fading most supposed 'winners/losers' fundamentally, in diff. I.G.'s, understanding the overreaction and non-addressing of the causes by the Govt., accepting the for-a-while-anyway tradeoff between freedom and comfort, and supposed increased safety, the jingoism and bandwagon mentality in some people, the wonderfulness of some people helping with the tragedy, etc., and the likelihood that long-existing, repeating patterns will out again this time around - while not forgetting the people lost....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, 3 more longs, and, 1 more Puts (some bal.) , wow:
1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CMNT (8+ to 11+) for 66% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. ARXX (8 to 11+) for Q 85% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CNC (6- to 8+) for VVVQ 80% G....all puts CHG (46- to 39) for Q 75% G....1/2 pos. puts SRE (27+ to 23+) for VQ 60% G ....note, getting soem Longside Gains already, you're welcome....
note, actually, most all the '1/2 pos.' Put Gains probably should be 'all pos.', given sentiment and overall mkt. oversoldness' ? so, assume all of those pos. should have been sold last Thu./Fri.
and/but, longs, CLRS, TLGD, DQE, AETH, IDTI, AMD, SYMC, EXBD, SLAB, DTPI, SPCT, 1/2 pos. UTHR no (oy), and, puts, BAX ?, GD, PRHC ny, DLX, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio (well, perhaps a little more than usual, with recent rare events)....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. AAPL @ 15+, 1/3 pos. ADTN @ 18+, 1/3 pos. AGU @ 9, 1/3 pos. ATMI. @ 15- ?, 1/3 pos. AVX @ 16+, CASY @ 11+, 1/3 pos. CCE @ 14+, 1/3 pos. CNXT @ 7+, 1/3 pos. DELL @ 16+, 1/2 pos. DY @ 11+, 1/3 pos. JDEC @ 6.8, 1/3 pos. KLIC @ 10+, 1/3 pos. LEXG @ 6.02, 1/3 pos. MCD @ 26.1, 1/2 pos. PHSY @ 11+, 1/3 pos. RVST @ 1 1/4 (risky, x-box play), 1/3 pos. SATC @ 5, 1/3 pos. STXN @ 5.15, 1/2 pos. UTSI. @ 14+, 1/3 pos. X. @ 13+, 1/3 pos. SUNW @ 8-, 1/3 pos. VIRL @ 9+, 1/3 pos. TIE @ 2.4, (note, decided too risky/early for MESA, so was not bt.)
1/3 pos. EXAR @ 15+, 1/3 pos. HOT @ 18, 1/3 pos. TGI. @ 23, 1/2 pos. CASY @ 11+, 1/2 pos. CLTK @ 11+, CNXT @ 8--, 1/3 pos. JDEC @ 6++, 1/2 pos. LTBG @ 9+, 1/3 pos. GT @ 17+, 1/3 pos. MOT @ 14+, 1/2 pos. PLXS @ 21+, 1/3 pos. UEIC @ 13+, 1/4 pos. RDA @ 17, 1/4 pos. AVL @ 6+, 1/3 pos. BRW @ 14+, 1/3 pos. AAPL @ 14+, 1/2 pos. CCI @ 7 5/8, 1/3 pos. DIS @ 16+, 1/3 pos. DISH @ 20, 1/3 pos. DNR @ 7+, 1/2 pos. JNIC @ 5+, 1/3 pos. ORCL @ 10+, ORTC @ 6, 1/3 pos. PCLN @ 2,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): BBOX @ 40+, 1/2 pos. DLM @ 8+, PWAV @ 10+, 1/3 pos. JLG @ 9+, GEMP @ 5-, RCG @ 0.65, VGZ @ 0.075, VRA @ 1+, 1/3 pos. KGC @ 0.79, REMC @ 7, LU @ 5+...."buy (only) low", right ?
if I had a gun to my head (and, in a way, I do), I'd say, these have the best relative patterns here, in no special order: UEIC, CLTK, CNXT, LTBG, DNR, PHSY, DTPI, RCG, REMC, CCI....obviously, if these have not broken patterns in THIS market, were decent shots, with close stops, yes ?
** Important: took, LTXX, JLG, MESA, PLXS, ANAD, TQNT, HTCH, TECH, PLMD, ELON, VIGN, LLTC, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. IART @ 31-, 1/3 pos. SLM @ 83- ?,
"Repeats": 1/3 pos. HSY @ 65++, 1/2 pos. MO @ 48+, 1/2 pos. PRHC @ 39+ ?, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 33++, MON @ 34+, RJR @ 58+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sectionsGYMB,
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", PLMD, VRSN, GSPN, COHU, DCN, FAF, HTCH, APCC, LTXX, INCY, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PBG, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns.... again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
plenty more nice big S.T. winners:
PCLN 4.00 up 1.47, RVST 1.67 up 0.47, DJX. LD 8.5 up 3.1, REMC 8.72 up 1.72, CNXT 8.66 up 1.21, ARXX 11.44 up 2.58, LEXG 7 up 1, AVL 6.90 up 0.66, STXN 5.79 up 0.71, PHSY 12.65 up 1.55, JNIC 6.20 up 0.69, CNC 8.15 up 0.45, DISH 23.55 up 1.88, X. 14.65 up 1.40, DELL 17 1/2 up 1, GT 18.38 up 1, HOT 22.58 up 1.22, DIS 18.49 up 1.39, PLXS 23.7 up 2.2, ANF 18.1 up 1.7, BRW 16.29 up 1.60, UTSI. 16.11 up 1.46, RDA 18.3 up 1, AAPL 15.9 up 1,
more: CCE 15.2 up 0.8, TGI. 23.85, DY 12.10 up 0.55, SUNW 8.33 up 0.43, JDEC 7.24, UEIC 14.67, MOT 16, CASY 12, GT 18.6, HOT 21 3/4, X. 14.13 up 0.80, AGU 9.34 up 0.34, TNL 22.4 up 1.1, up/higher since last NL here....also note 'fobd' in WCOM 12+, 15+, recently....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
Techs, and, almost everything else, like, CATZ 3.95 (B), 5.25, REMC 8.07, FON 21.45, 23.13, 22.13, 23.82, AAPL, RCG, CMNT, VRA, PWAV 12.15 up 1.44, BBOX 40.12 (B), 44.2, CLTK 11.7 (bopb), LU 5.26 (B), 5.69, VGZ, DNR 7.61, 8.37, UTSI, CNC 6.85, CCI. 7.61 (B), 8.09, TGI. 22....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
EXAR 15+ (B), 17+, CATZ, LNUX, KANA, VGZ, UTHR 10.81, 12.40, CHINA, UAL (oy), RGC, CLTK 11.05, BRW 14.59 (B), and most all Techs....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
still more decent drops, yes ?
IART -3, PRHC -2, SRE, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ? not too much chance of that as of 9/21, ay ?):
adding some Depressed Gaming, Cable, Gold, Agriculture-oriented, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative energy, Ind. Groups....and some Brokers improving technically and sentiment-wise ? and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
semiconductor-relateds: ARXX, ADI, AVX, MOT, KLIC, and more just below,
telecom/commun.-relateds: FON, PWAV, CMNT, NOK, PCTL, NOK, WCOM, DISH, Q, and more just below,
and, as i intimated, some Airline/Travel, EVB's: TGI, AVL, HOT, FLYR, etc.
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
PHSY, X, ACRI, ATMI, ADTN, ADPT, ASIA, ANDW, WCOM, AMT, SUNW, COHU, BORL, CASY, CLTK, UEIC, CNXT, ESST, ENTG, FALC, GYMB, APCC, INCY, RVST, IDCC, KLIC, MKSI, LTBG, MSLV, PROX, PXLW, SBAC, VRSN, UTSI, VIRL, ANF, TIE, SATC, BSC, AES, CNH, APH, GT, VIA, X, XRX eh, RDA, AGU, AVL, CBR, DNR, DY, TFS eh, TNL, TGI, TIE, WCG ?, to, ORTC, MDCC, SOI, PCLN, JNIC, JDEC, CNC, GEMP, FAF, ASA, LOR, UTSI, CCI, STXN, BBOX, REMC, DNR, CCE ?, CATZ, RCG, as EVB's or bases....
new, separate, probably temporary 'EVB' list, in no special order, mostly very big names: DIS, ORCL, SUNW, TGI, HOT, and, gosh, many others....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, PRHC ?, AOT, PBG, LDR, SLM, PLB, MO, CMX, GILD, to, AMHC, UOPX, SNV, JHF, BAX ?, AHG, RJR, ESRX, ACDO, SFG, BRK/B, HCA, IVC, AMSG, ATRX, ENZN, LIZ, TALX, DYII, BBY, MON, PLNR, STU, GILD, CHS, ITT, CHD ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES