1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) having, as usual, been the first to give out BLS and VZ from recent lows, now adding some 'long-distance telecom' stocks, WCII, DT, WCOM, LU, as potential "EVB's" here, check them out, close stops below.... 2) you know we hate 'linking', but might EVB's in depr. Chem. stocks, connect with tops among Crude group stocks I gave you at recent highs ? ....3) seeing some unexpected pops in some puttable Financial stocks, so I am not fighting the tape....actually like some long on pullbacks, other Puts on strength.... 4) CNBC reports, Wed., 11:10, that "Utilities EIX and PCG, in the deregulated So. Calif. atmosphere, have now spent so much $$$ 'buying elec. power' (for their captive paying customers to get ripped off on in their monopolies - my editorial comment), they could become insolvent, with so much additional debt taken on"....yeah, right....as I reported herein already, this is B.S., political, greedy crapola....their saying, "current events assure mutually assured destruction of these 2 companies"....Others say, overreaction....what do YOU think ? gee, guys, perhaps you might have built more power plants, with all your growth predictions made, before, yes ? greed, short-sightedness, need I go on ? Interesting, since EIX already up from 15+ to 26- recently, and PCG from 20 to 32, now 22, recently, can't be that bad, or their stocks would not have risen, yes ? next....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) see above, Thu. 12:15 pm, CNBC's David Faber, now, only after big drops, runs a story, "is Telecom Equip. growth over ?", amazing, huh....the pattern rarely changes.... 2) the mustached CNBC guy, Pat Bolen ?, incorrectly negatively misled, Fri., 8:06, saying, "Mattel lower eps, cut div., certainly having an effect on its stock, down 3/8 to 11...." Uh, gee, guy, it has NOT broken base support, has it ? if anything, holding up on such 'bad news' is a Positive, yes ? amazing, huh....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) seeing PCLN and LHSP down to below $ 10, I am reminded of my getting threats when I suggested on TV that such companies might not succeed, when EVERYONE else on Wall St. loved them much higher....and you still want to use only Wall St. analysts and Media sources for timing and choossing investments by what they say/infer ? ....2) wish I knew more details why "U.S. July Durable Goods orders" were down a record -13 %, ....3) I love it - they all hated AAPL at $ 15-20, when my people were given it herein, then they absolutely loved it at parabolic high, yes ? all those articles and mag. covers, yes ? and, today, down -50 % in one day....hah....the pattern rarely changes.... meanwhile, our BEOS hangs in, dig ? hey, MSFT also fell -50 % off the predicted high I gave you as a put herein....neat....oh, and, as usual, all the idiot analysts downgraded AAPL - only after down another -50 %, don't get me started.... thanks for nothing, guys....and they get paid for that ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) on CNBC, Wed. noon, Art Cashen, famous exch. floor guy, said, "with all the recent stock price declines and disappointments, we're going to have to put Goldilocks' picture on a milk carton"....so, probably we are close to the end of many EVB's soon, sentiment-wise, dig ? ....2) Raymond James' Ralph Bloch, on CNBC, Wed., 12:28, said, he is seeing "incredibly low P/C ratios Mon. and Tues., and we are more OVSLD. as much as March 2000....we need to see much more confirmation of all sorts of things, technically, before I would dip my toes into water...." But, as usual, he is still miffy, not definitive, not very bullish, and didn't really help much of anyone, dig ? and, of course, no word of his recent actual predictions before this rough period, dig ? Nor any specific stocks or I.G.'s given....so, useless.... 3) MSDW util. analyst, Fri., 8 am, CNBC, responding to their headline grabber (trying to sensationalize/create a story, don't get me started), "is the power surge for Util. stocks about to peak ?" , loves DUK and PE -- way up here....super-bullish....oy....you know what this means....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) hate me improperly if you must, but am real happy seeing the Abortion pill RU-486 now approved here by the FDA, as I am most often in favor of any means of respect for women, and having more good choices in their lives....are you ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
all stk.on.mgn. EMA (8 to 12-) for VQ 90% Gain....all puts WFT (50- to 40+) for VQ 80% G....bal. puts SYK (48- to 40) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. puts ATON (150 to 107+) for VQ 90% G....all puts RSYS (58- to 47+) for 75% G....1/2 pos. puts NBL (41 to 36-) for Q 50% G....all puts HAL (54 to 48-) for VQ 44% G....1/2 pos. EXPD (50- to 46-) for Q 44% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. HLTH (11+ to 15-) for VQ 66% G....
and/but, longs, NSC ?, DK, VIGN, BDX, TNB, ZMBA, CHINA, KDE, VNTR, NEON, WYN, ERICY, NOW, PLC, AM ?, AMI. ?,ECO, TGX ?, CAT, BBI, bal. RHAT (18+ to 29- to 18-), and, puts, bal. NVDA (82 to 63 to 83), INRS (48 to 41 to 48+), FCEL (93 to 69 to 94), GDW, ABK, VTSS ?, VRSN ?, EXAR ?, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio.... been too many QSL's recently, but no real damage, and mostly overcome by more, and bigger, Gains....but certainly discouraging....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. BGP @ 13+, 1/2 pos. BSX @ 16 3/16, CA @ 25 1/8, 1/2 pos. CCE @ 16-, DCN @ 21-, 1/2 pos. DT @ 34-, 1/2 pos. F. @ 24+, GENE @ 18+, 1/2 pos. HAS @ 11, 1/2 pos. INCY @ 37+, 1/2 pos. REP @ 18+, SEE @ 44, 1/2 pos. SGC @ 7.56, 1/2 pos. WCII. @ 14+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4, ABS @ 20+, AEN @ 1 13/16, AII. @ 8, AMI. no ?, ATHM @ 13++, ATYT @ 8+, AU @ 18+, AZC @ 0.85, BD @ 3 5/8, BEOS @ 4-, BGO @ 0.405 ?, BLS @ 36, BYD @ 4 3/8, CAU 0.87, CMB @ 45+, CN @ 4+, COVD @ 13+, CPB @ 24+, CTT @ 8+, CTV @ 23++, DIR @ 6+, DOL @ 14 ?, DROOY @ 15/16, ELNK @ 10-, EMA @ 8, ENT @ 36, ENTU @ 23++, EWB @ 19-, FFA @ 22+, HDG @ 1.00, HLIT @ 23+, HLTH @ 11, IHK @ 1.03, IKN @ 4, INAP @ 26+, JBOH @ 3 3/4, K. @ 23+, KRY @ 1.31, LOR @ 6-, LZB @ 14, MAT @ 10, MUEI. ??, NTLI. @ 37+, OCN @ 5.47, PER @ 10, PKS @ 14++, SIEB @ 7 3/16, SPLS @ 13+, SSCC @ 11, STI. @ 48, SVU @ 15+, TSP @ 15+, UCR @ 12 1/8, UNP @ 38+, UPM @ 24 1/2, USU @ 4 1/8, WAB @ 9++, WB @ 54, WIN @ 13++, XDSL @ 6, XRX @ 15...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, INAI, ENGA, CMGI, CK, OPTV, EFNT, DRTN ?, GRA, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
(new ones): 1/2 pos. AXP @ 61+, 1/2 pos. HGSI. @ 182, 1/2 pos. PMCS ny ?, VRSN no ? fobo ?,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') ANEN @ 139-, CBL @ 25+, CHKP @ 156+, CHRW @ 60-, CYN @ 40++, EXPD @ 49+, FLEX @ 87, FRX @ 120, GE @ 60-, GSPN @ 146, SANM @ 108-, SLR @ 49+, SRNA @ 47, VTSS no ?....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, CEFT, DIS, ELNT, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", REY, HPC, CTXS, GEMS, FNV, MSTR, AEM, DRTN, ORCT, LHSP, CA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , , and others removed from sec. (7) below, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
still giving you plenty of risers: EMA 12 up 3.06 (S), MAT 12 3/4 up 2 1/4, HLTH 15.00 up 3.87, INCY 44 3/4 up 7 1/8, DIR 7.31 up 1.06, GENE 21 1/8 up 3 1/8, ESR 7.68 up 1.12, WCII. 15 7/8 up 1 5/8, VZ 47.81 up 4.56, ASHW 6.56 up 0.69, UCR 13.25 up 1.28, EMA 8.90 up 0.70, ASHW 7 11/32 up 15/32, HAS 11.56 up 1, SGC 8 up 1/2, ATHM 14 1/4 up 1, AU 19 3/8 up 1 3/8, ENT 38.43 up 2.43, SEE 46 1/4 up 2 1/2, DCN 21 3/4 up 1 3/8, WB 57.12 up 3.75, BGP 13 7/8 up 3/4, STI. 51.18 up 2.93, CTV 24 7/8 up 1, F. 25.93 up 1.56, DCN 21 3/4 up 1 3/8, UNP 39.43 up 1, REP 18.93, DL 11 1/2, HRC 8 1/8, GLT 12, CPB 26 5/8, K. 24.43, AAI. 4.56, CTT 9.43, higher, since last time here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
IKN 4.68 up 0.68, CPWR 8.68 up 0.68, JDN 10.31, 11.18, SSCC 11.56 up 0.81, EWB 20 1/4 up 1 1/2, WIN 14 5/8, XDSL 6.55 up 0.55, CMH 9 1/8, 9 5/8, ASA 17.18 up 0.81, SEE 44 5/8, CSCQ, NTLI. 41 1/2 up 2, ENT 36 1/2, PKS 15, 14.43, EWB, HLIT, BLS 39.56 up 2.56, ARG 6 5/8 up 1/2, SPLS, INAP 26 3/4, INCY 41 1/2, ENT 36+, 37+, BEOS 3.90, OHI, SIEB 7.06, UPM, MAT 10 3/4, WAB 10, HAS 11, JBOH 3 5/8, NOVL, USU, GY 8, CMH, PMTC, CN, BD, HOV, R., DCLK, HA, ALI, BYD, CORL, PHC, OHI, CAU, LZB, ATYT, MLG, HCM, SVU 15.18, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) RAD 4 3/8 up 1 1/4, LOR 5 5/8, COVD 13 1/2, AMI, LRW, XDSL 6.03, ECO, VNWK 5.6, 6.4, STEI, SSCC 11-, DOL 14-, SPLS, MEA, CPWR, LZB, BCC 26.93 up 2.18, BD, TGX 6 3/8, PMTC, MUEI. 8.87, RHAT 18-, BBI. 8 43. HOV, NSC, PER 10-, CTV, XRX, MLG, AM, ASL, UPM, HRC, AN, USU, UPM, BTO....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
HGSI. -20, SANM -14 1/2, ATON -13, INFA -6 1/2, FRX -6 1/2, FLEX -6, GS +6, -8 1/2, WFT +1 1/2, -4 (S), CHRT -2, EXPD -1 1/2, GS -1 1/2, CHRW, RSYS (S), CBL, lower, since last NL here....and, ATON, EXPD, are approaching their 200 DMA....while, MFST, CPQ, many other Techs, down even further....hah...."but, Jim,they are such great companies...." Maybe, but not 'stocks', re-read my Booklets.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (ALI, BSX, HLTH, GENE, INCY, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, MLS, BNP, ALI, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, AII, etc.)
Retails/Apparel/Merchandise/Office (ASHW (opbo), SPLS, BGP, IKN, fewer)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (NSC no, BD, WAB, R, AAI, UNP, F, DCN, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, ASA, BMG, FCX, AU, DROOY, CBJ, etc.), Housing (LZB eh, CMH tln, CN, eh, etc.), Paper (GLT, BCC, GP, MEA, SSCC, etc.), Food-related (CKR, SVU, FFA, DOL, IHK, BLM, CPB, K, FFA, CCE, etc.), Banks (opbo), Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., Grocery (WIN, ABS), and Precious Metals, Leisure/Travel/Toys, Aero./Def., Industry Groups....
"busted techs" (ATYT, CPWR, PER, XDSL, RHAT ?, HLIT, ENTU, INAP, ELNK, EMA, and those below)
and, notice, re-adding previously-given-at-lows-before-recent-pops, other busted Techs, here and below,
and, Online Brokers/Financials (SIEB, JBOH, DIR, CMB, WB, STI, XRX, EGRP)
and, Commun. (COVD, XDSL, BLS, etc.)
and, Chem. (DOW, SEE, HPC, etc.), Energy (TMG, TSO, REP, HEC ?, etc.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
add, (in no particular order !): RT, SR, REP, NCI, PT, TSP ?, TRRA, PUMA, VERT ?, MSTR, PLB, AIB, DRTN ?, AFWY, CTXS, CNET, DGTC, BXS, GEMS, F, MRD ?, AIB ?, NTG no, NAV ?, IFC, SGC, AEN, TEC, CTT, CA, ENT, AGS, SEE, to, MLS, DCLK, FNT, LOR, BOY, UVA ?, MMS eh, ETYS nah, ECO no, IN, UVA ?, OBJX, ORCT, FSW, NTN, MAH, REY, VZ, FDO, RBC, AMI. ?, BLM ?, FND ?, QSC, BGO ?, UCR, WTT, MAI. ?, JS ?, FBN, NTN, EX, PHC, CKP, GSTRF, JBM, ATX, CORL, MDG, PII, CCL, FSW, IKN, HAS, CTO, MAT, IT, DL, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, MLS, JDN....
and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, AXP, JBL, FLEX ?, PMCS ?, NMSS, VRSN, EOG, APWR, to, CHKP, BLDP, HGSI, INFA, IWOV, MVSN, TOY, MER, GS, GR, EXPD, EXTR, VTSS, SANM, CBL, to, MEDI, APH, ADI, CYN, SLR, INRS, GE, CHRW, ARBA, AUDC, to,
(repeats) BRCM, FLSH, NVLS, VRSN, SSTI, MTG, DVN, BSC, LSCC, XLNX, PSEM, ANEN, GSPN, ATON ?, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, from recent past NL's....some Semis declibned to their initial downside levels, already....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES