1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) obviously, our non-cheapie Gold stocks rose big-time....aren't you glad you got some, AND had patience to stick around, and sold, Tuesday ? ? I did not expect the two-day parabolic rise, though, so one should have taken Gains, without any greed, right ? Cash Gold at 306. early Tuesday's high, was probably it, V.S.T., and, of course, CNBC interviewed two more guys who have now changed, from negative, to positive, on Gold, late....the pattern never changes....even in a vacuum, the S.T. spike alone, should have one taking profits, yes ? ....2) as expected/predicted, the DJ. Util. Avg. fell further to 288....its two previous lows, as suggested, were 284 and 288, so still looking for a bottom to form soon ....ditto with DJ. Trans. Avg. at Tuesday's low....give them time....but "the 95 %" just began to get real bearish, just like I told you, yes ? the pattern never changes.... 3) check out a chart of the Internet Index "IIX", as I first predicted "the" top, herein, back in Jan. '99, note the potential stage 6, triple-top-type formation, up against resistance overhead....realize, that few, or no, 'depressed' Internet stocks are in that index, so it is skewed towards the big boys, which are, still, NOT cheap at all, here, still probably just having their potential stage 6 rallies predicted....so, caveat emptor.... 4) with the CRB commodities index over 209, know its decent resistance remains in the 210-215 area, max....since I was also the first/only guy to have given its low at 183 or so, herein, I am telling you NOT to "begin to get super-bullish on commodities, or Gold", too late now....
5) re: the still unfolding, already-occured-in-some-areas, R.E. top: a few more of my friends have bought condos lately here....more evidence of a rolling top, ay ? ....6) were we also among the first/only to have given out the S.T.-depressed Online Brokers/Internet stocks here for you ? neat, but as I said, be nimble, and have no big emotional hopes or dreams....they are likely just scalps.... 7) cash Crude Oil just got barely over $ 25., not predicted here by me anyway (no harm), of course, but, still, the "stock prices" of such companies have corrected/are correcting already, as predicted here for you, yes ? Most likely, cash Crude pulls back towards $ 20. over time anyway, over months, while the stocks of companies back and fill, offering fewer trade opportunities, while Y2K fears get bandied about.... 8) most Aero/Def. stocks are done on the downside for now, just FYI....just stage 5, or 6, though.... 9) last, note continuing top, and drop today, in the Philly Semi. index, "SOX", as predicted here first/only....we just missed some as Puts given herein, but you could have caught them if you did your homework....the pattern never changes....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from
the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Tue. CNBC, 11:10 am, a guy on CNBC expressed concern about "Tech. stocks, related to Y2K problems", which is interesting, since you recall that all the "experts" have been saying all along, as they pushed big Tech. stocks to ridiculous levels, that, if any companies would NOT get hurt by Y2K, it would be those kinds of stocks, right ? Of course, he says this now, only after those stocks are correcting/have corrected, dig ? Funny, I don't recall anyone major saying this, back when those stocks were near their highs, do you ? ....2) Wed., CNBC's Ted David, noted stock predictor (NOT !), 8:05 am, only after Gillette has fallen from 64 to 35, said, "it looks like 25, soon...." But he was never bearish up there, so what does that tell you ? ....3) Wed., 8:47 am, CNBC gal reporter, M. Cabrera (again) misleadingly said the "Oil Drilling stocks" were "acting great", saying new bullish "fundamentals" have came out, and more B-firms became bullish on them up here....Gee, if she would just have shown a few CHARTS, the truth (contrary to her statements) would have helped millions of viewers, but, as you know, that is too much to ask of the Media .... 4) a new Wed. CNBC commercial "grabber", said, "some investors wait until after corrections, to do their buying....is that a good idea ? tune in at...." well, duh.... 5) all day Wed., CNBC'ers were incorrectly saying AOL stock was "soaring" (they said it several times)....gee, since when is 'only' up 10-15 % "soaring" ? They gotta create a story, gotta create excitement, gotta be mindless ....Gee, if only up 10-15 % is "soaring", what word would they use for its previous rise from 20 to 170 ? ....6) speaking of Internets, with AMZN 78+ up 12+, Wed., planning to allow almost anything to try to be sold on its web locations, corporations and individuals, etc. Gee, does this seem like "reaching" here, to you ? Is this the last gasp for this industry, retail-wise, in this area of endeavor ? Remember, after the momentum "PSYCLE sm" top in any I.G. and stock, historically, companies had tended to add more and more services/products/markets, until, of course they either cannibalize their own results, or, they get all over the place, and lose their focus....I am, of course, as usual, the first/only guy to see/suggest this, as well, so watch for this to unfold --- while I get no publicity, and no one cares.... 7) and, Bill Griffeth, CNBC, Wed., 9:25 am, actually said, "boy are we good to our viewers..." uh, no, you are not very often....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) note, how most Tech. stock declines had ALREADY occured, before MSFT's Steve Ballmer opened hiw mouth, dig ? he should be getting my NL.... 2) CNBC's Bauman, 9:45 am, Tue. 28 th, highlighted the "Gaming/Leisure/Toy" groups....kudos....of course, as usual, I was, again, the first/only to have given some of those to you herein not too long ago....most still need more work, technically, but am watching.... like, TOY, MIR, HMT, etc. we shall see.... 3) the pattern never changes: Wed., 29 th, CNBC, all morning, only AFTER they have fallen big, overreported AVP, CLX, Gillette (I gave you these as Puts near their highs herein, but they took a while to fall), citing "bad fundamnentals", only now, late, as usual, right ? They also threw in, CL, and PG, which did not even have the "PSYCLE sm" top formation....amazingly NOT helpful....And, of course, Paine Webber finally downgraded AVP --- after the drop, dig ? "PSYCLE sm" lesson: remember, not too long ago, all the "experts" hated AVP, "because of the Asian problems" --- right near its mutli-year LOW, back then, yes ? And, Merrill and Salomon each lowered "G" to 'sales' down here, saying they are "skeptical of a turnaround"....So, of course, expect a S.T. bottom ahead....'nuff said....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Tue. 28 th, KWHY-tv, 7:30 am, Arch Crawford, the "planetary alignment guy" who, as I said, HAS been right at times, remains real bearish on stocks, bullish on Golds....said Gold will go up into late Oct., and that 10/24 will be the last day for his "expected crash" to occur in stocks, if at all....he still holds out for that possibility....Realize, he said that on THE day-or-two of the V.S.T. bottom in stocks, and the V.S.T. top in Golds, yes ? get it ? ....2) wish I had caught name of $ mgr. on CNBC, Tue. 8 am, who said, "Intel will wipe out AMD"....of course, this has been said before, and, if AMD continues to base around 16-, AMD may shape up yet again ? ....3) M. Bartiromo, on CNBC, Tue. 11 am, said, that Ralph Acampora remains very bullish, but is pushing his "Dow to 12-13 K" prediction, into next year, and said, "a drop to Dow 10 K was the least likely scenario"....oh, he, at the end, also said, what everyone else has been saying: that, when/if broke below 10 K Dow, next targets are in the 8800 to 9200 area....too obvious...yet.... 4) Tue., 11:55 am, Jim Dines on KWHY-tv, said just went on S.T. sell signal in stocks, a little late, yes ? and still loves Golds, even up here, for new buys, same as he stayed with Interents after their big rises....as I said, I do give him credit for giving Golds out lower.... he just seems to too-readily accept big % corrections along the way, without targets or stops, which I just don't get.... 5) I love it: Wed., on CNBC, 8:44 am, Jim Moltz of "the ISI. Monitor" (first time I ever heard of him) just gave a new "sell" signal on the S & P....also only AFTER recent declines, dig ? Then, he showed a supposedly bullish "fundamental indicator ratios" chart, which, after he explained it, I saw, as bearish....in other words, his "chart" showed bearish, even though he suggested it was bullish....then, he said, S.T., the market is oversold, but then, said L.T., "it was going to be a problem, because not all sectors besides Tech., would participate"....in other words, he said NOTHING of "D.A.F.P.P. value"....what a waste of our time....next....who chooses the people to be interviewed oin CNBC ? ....6) but, kudos to Merill L., for removing IBM from its rec'd. list, up here, it does seem to want to form a H & S top ? ....7) Merrill's big market technician, Dick McCabe, Thu. 30 th, CNBC, 8 am, said, we are not yet totally bottoming, and still-extended stocks and Techs will still correct/ more, joining the depresseds and middle-tier, which are already correcting, and/or have been correcting for two years....Sounds a little like me, actually, except we try to recommend buying Puts to take advantage (he never does) and we buy EVB's and bases, all along, regardless of "indexes".... 7) the Hershey Group, broker pitchmen on KWHY-tv, Fri., 9:11 am, pitched that new Fund from MER, for Internet IPO's, etc., saying, "get involved in the bullish frenzy of the Internet"....I wish them well, even alloweing for the occasional huge, one-day gains....question is, can/will MER's fund actually take profits well when those opportunities occur ? or will they "stay in for the long term" and give those back, as all studies have shown occurs almost always....
e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) in the face of continuing semi-"whistling in the graveyard" ever-bullishness from people within the online trading arena, an actually scentient comment by Bill Griffeth, CNBC, Wed., 10:15 am, asking Datek's pres., why, it seemed to Bill, that trading hours are being extended, yet the volume of discount firm trades seem to be not growing as much....and, wouldn't other firms "eat Datek's lunch" business-wise....meaning, they would be operating longer, for less revenue, inferring my "PSYCLE sm" stage 5 or 6, "stretching/gasping" I taught you about in my Booklets....interesting, huh.... 2) quick follow-up on the "deficit" (actually non)-problem: L.A. Times, 9/26, "Trade Deficit Called Global Threat": huh ? one more time: there are two sides to any deficit: what the USA delivers to and orders from other countries, and what other countries deliver to, and order from, us....Then the article says, "Financial officials from Group 7 countries declared that global prospecrity is threatened by trade imbalances.... but they offered no specifics on what should be done." I rest my case. Wish I had the time and space needed to set people straight on this issue, but suffice it to say, that, as usual, individual charts of many 'things' will indicate probable future price moves, WITHOUT any of us having to know tons more juxtapositional fundamental "stuff" which may or may not be involved. Last, the Group of 7 did decide to examine adding 13 countries more, for a "Group of 20"....I am not kidding....like that will help them come up with more of nothing....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best
individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
(nice gains) calls NEM (17+ to 28+) for 200% Gain....calls PDG (10 to 17-) for 200 % Gain ....bal. puts SNDK (89 to 67+) for VQ 175 % G....bal. puts SCAI. (48+ to 33+) for 150% G....calls HM (7++ to 11-) for VQ 100% G....puts WCII. (58 to 39-) for Q 150% G....puts WFT (39 to 30) for Q 125% G.... stock BGO (9/16 to 1 1/2) for 140% G....1/2 pos. puts ADRX (75- to 57+) for 150% G....puts HWP (112+ to 90-) for VQ 100% G....stock BMG (1 7/8 to 4-) for 100% G....1/2 pos. calls ATHM (36+ to 46) for VVQ 111% G....puts BVF (58+ to 48+) for Q 111% G....puts SSCC (25 to 21) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. puts FLM (12+ to 10) for Q 66% G....puts ETN (100- to 86++) for Q 75% G....stock ECO (1 1/4 to 2 1/2) for 90% G....bal. calls MTSI. (12+ to 17+) for L.T. 100% G....puts PLX (20- to 16+) for VQ 66% G....puts BA (46+ to 41+) for 75% G....puts KSS (80- to 67-) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts RDC (20 to 16+) for VQ 80% G....
and/but, longs, CYB, ALU, UFC, TSA, GFD, STE, FLO, TKR, ABTL, TMD, FNL, CSR, WH, and, puts, ANTC, DSCP ?, for more, quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....been too many of them lately....rare....and, as you have seen, many are "iffy" sales....up to you....TMD was a rare whipsaw....
just a quickie: notice how, ALU, TSA, broke immediately, after seemed to be forming bases, so out, no biggie, no damage....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones) ALB @ 17-, AN @ 12, BDX @ 26+, EAR @ , CGI. @ 22.06, EGRP @ 22-, FTL @ 3++, HSIC @ 14+, IMH @ 4 1/2, MT @ 8+, NTBK @ 21, TFT @ 6 5/8, UVA @ 12+,
(small note: last time's supposed "buy" of HBI., was, obviously, a mistake, and should not have been listed)
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ASO @ 21+, ATHM @ 36+, BWL/A @ 7.06, CASY @ 13.06, CHB @ 8 3/8, CPQ @ 22+, CPU @ 5 3/4, CTK @ 8-, GDC @ 2 7/16, GLB @ 16- ?, HMA @ 7+, HMY @ 4 9/16, MLG @ 8 1/2, MSN @ 9/16, MWHS @ 11++, NHC @ 6 1/8, NHP @ 15+, ONSL @ 13+, SCS @ 14+, SDH @ 14+, SWK @ 24+, SYNC @ 2 5/16, TBFC @ 21, TCA @ 6+, THC @ 16+, TO @ 11+, TSC @ 4 5/16, TXB @ 3 5/8, UQM @ 4 1/8, VBAC @ 1 3/16, WTT @ 1 3/4....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still 'Not that great' a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have
subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may
have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE
viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE subscribers who
DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all,
for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, HBI., MCK, NCE, ADSK, MAT, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) AGN ?, CYTC @ 39, EMLX @ 95+, GGG @ 36+, LD ?, NEV @ 17+, TNL @ 36+,
"Repeats": (note, added names) ADTN @ 40-, AGX ?, ARMHY ?, ASML @ 68+, CXY @ 19+, DIGX @ 30+, HAE @ 20, HLIT @ 135+, JDSU @ 120, JNPR @ , LMG/A @ 37++, NTLI. @ 100, PVY @ 29+, QLTI. @ 83, SPW @ 89+, STM @ 79+, TAM @ 12++, TSI. @ 29, TYC @ 104+, VNWK @ 44....
and/but, took, ARBA ?, RPC, GMH, QRSI, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CPTH, PCCC, SIEB, NITE, AGE, JOB, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PHCM, IVX, WMT, AGY, AMCC, LSI., MU, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to....if you do just a little work....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (on a
bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
(obviously, a bunch of Golds, but actually many others as well, so read carefully and thoroughly) GRERF 0.17 up 0.12, CAU 0.375 up 0.215 (sos), VGZ 0.25 up 0.13, BMG 4+ up 2 (S), BGO 1 5/8 up 7/8 (S), CCH 0.343 up 0.163 (sos), ECO 2 5/8 up 3/4 (S), PDG 17+ up 5+ (S), GSR 3/4 up 3/8, DAY 0.125 up 0.032, BE 0.250 up 0.073, HM 11+ up 1 3/4 (sos), KRY 1 up 3/8, ATHM 47 1/4 up 11 1/2, CDE 5 5/8 up 7/8, TBFC 25 1/2 up 4 1/2, EGRP 26 3/8 up 4, NEM 30 up 3 5/8 (S), GDC 2 3/4 up 3/8,
(more) IMH 5 up 5/8, UNA 13 1/2 up 1 1/2, NHC 7 up 3/4, TFT 7 1/8 up 5/8, BWL/A 7 3/4 up 7/8, CNS 23 up 2, NTBK 23 up 2, SEEK 32 up 4, GV 0.312 up 0.120, HMA 8 up 5/8, NPSI. 15 1/4 up 1 1/2, WH 15 7/8 up 7/8, THC 18 1/4 up 1 3/8, MCL 10 1/8 up 1 1/8, JOB 4 5/8 up 5/8, HMY 4 7/8 up 3/8, ASO 23 3/8 up 1 3/4, SDH 16 5/8 up 1, ALB 18 3/8 up 1, CGI. 22 7/8 up 7/8, NHP 16 3/4, BDX 27 3/4 up 1 3/8, HMT 9 3/8, TPN 9, higher, since last time here....
and the CRB index over 209., as well (somewhat because of Gold rise)....also, AR 27, higher....most "Gold" stocks do/did have resistance just above Tuesday's highs, just FYI....so, "sold" most into strength, right ? that was up to you....please realize, the biggish spreads among the real cheapies are a problem at times....hope you have a good quality broker....of course, you bought a package, and knew the 'real cheapies' were riskier, right ?
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: ONSL 14 5/8 up 1 3/8, HEB 6 7/8 up 1/2, MWHS 11 3/8, 12 1/4, 11 1/2, RXSD 12 7/8 dn 1 3/8, HOC 15 up 1, ATHM 41+, MLG 8 1/2, TPN -1, BWL/A 6 7/8, NPSI. 14, SEEK 32, APFC, CPQ, IFMX, OJ, NPK, TCA, MCL, TSC, BCP, CPU, EGRP 23++, TBFC 23, NWK, CCC, ATC, SWK, SYNX, CASY, AVM, NTBK, CHY, PMC, LDW, ESOL, FWC, TXB, RLC, TPS, NHC, WTT, TBP, MSN, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....remember, many "Golds" are already having normal stage 2 pullbacks, right ?
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) CNS 22, FWC, TXB, WTT, APFC, CCC, LWN, SWK, MWHS, CHY, TCA, LDW, HOC, HCM 4, HIV, SSC, MSN, IO., TG....note, this list has chrunk, partly due to Q, S, losses, partly because of recent S.T. lows....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
WCII. -13 1/2 (S), QLTI. +3, -10, VISX -7, MEDI. -6, HWP -5, +3, -14 (S), NTLI. -5, DIGX -5, ADRX -5, QLGC -4, KSS -3 1/2 (S), VISX +3, -7, MSFT -4, TYC -3 1/2, AHAA -3, EMLX -3, GDW -3, ATML +4, -6, BVF -2 (S), SPW -3, VNWK -2, JBL -2, ZBRA -1 1/2, ILN -1, PVY -1, JCI. -1, TSI. -2, STM -2, WFT -2 (S), RDC -1 (S), SONC -1, IBIS -2, TNL -1 1/4, ADIC -1, PLX (S), CXY, ACV -1, DIGX -1, RSC -1, lower, still, since last NL here ....while, ETN, WCII., WFT, RDC, PLX, BHI., BA, HWP, BCE, fell to, and/or approach, their 200 DMA (S), and, AVP 26, BBT 30, BHI., TGNT, even lower....while, SDLI., fell to its 50 DMA....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
once again, remember, to form a "top" over time, a stock most often must jockey around, right ? this takes days and even weeks, as taught in my
"Downside" booklet, re-read it please....that's one reason it helps to view these types of "bounces" in this section at times....
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ?
You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between
NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns !
Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at
all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously
formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns
from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Health-relateds (ALU, THC, UQM, HEB, TMD ?, HMA, TXB, NHC, EAR, TCA, NHP)
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, DAY, on big pullbacks only, right ?)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC, FLO, WH),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Copper/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Internet-and-Online Broker-ralated (scary, close stops) SEEK, TBFC, ATHM, ONSL, EGRP, more below, on pullbacks only now, etc.
emerging groups ?: still, "Medical/Hospital/Health", "Athletics/Shoes", and, Foods, soon ? and/but, some busted REIT's, like, WEA, FCH, PRT, WIR, MT, for possible income/dividends, plus price upside....this may jive with the depressed health/REIT/hospital/HMO stocks, like, VTR, LWN, NHP, etc., we are watching (which have no dividends, of course) ? and, now, perhaps my famous "Thermo's" stocks will bottom, that no one else sees ? (TMD, TFT, TMO, TCA, etc. ?)
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for
your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some"
of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once....
since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they
pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding, EGRP, ALU, BE, CBG, FLS, ASO, SEEK, TBFC, JOB, FLO, SEV, TO, MWHS, THC, PIR, SCS, HEB, to, BWL/A, TCA, IMG, TMD, TG, RTI, MGL, HMY, SYNX, RXSD, FC, HWD, RAH, HLX, ESOL, STK, CKP, UNA, LWN, OMM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, SEV, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus,
"repeats": DMI, BFO, HMA, JM, CASY, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, TXB, IO., MSN, SAMC, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....still, not that great a list, in the main.... which should tell you something about "the marketplace".
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real
mish-mosh: adding, add, AN, BDX, AGE, PIR, ALB, FLE, ENN, FTL, AW, HMT, CPU, WIR, CPTH, MSPG, SIEB, NTBK, PCCC, BXM, SDH, CGI, CTX, CNB, MGL, CHB, CTK, ONSL, FWC, NHC, FNL, ONX, HLX, NPSI., as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead ....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work.... and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades ....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....
They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn
the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: VISX, HAE, IDPH, ZOLL, DGX, etc.
other "Techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below here....
**** others, and new ones: many more, added, ARC, CNG, HPK, SU, DGX, ADTN, EFII., EMLX, HOMS, INKT, LLTC, MXIM, NXLK, PESC, PLMD, SAWS, ZOLL, VVTV, CYTC, to, ADIC, AGX, CCL, CXY, DIGX, FFIV, IBIS, IVX, LD, LSI, MMM, PHCM, PHG, QLGC, RHAT, SDLI, TSI., VSEA, to, ARBA, ARMHY, ASML, ANTC, CLRN, ETN, JBL, MACR, SLR, SONC, VNWK, ZBRA, to, ARTC, ATML, CBRNA, DYN, NBL, QLTI, TCB, WLM, SEWY, JCI, GDW, JPM, MWD, SPW, TAM, ALGX, MEDI, INSS, MSFT, NTLI, HLIT, SANM, DOX, TLAB, AHAA, DST, ADVS, STM, ECP, CDI, CLS, DOX, BC, VISX, VTSS, FDS, PEB, EXDS, SNPS, ACS, CAKE, GE, KWP, PB, JNPR, RNWK, SFX, ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, CPN, EL, PKS, from recent past NL's,
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Energy, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....of course, many issues are already down now, so fewer "still near their highs", right ?
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: new: given recent action and ideas above, none needed today....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....