1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....which will tell you something about "the market" overall, yes ? Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL. Note, I am putting more "learning/feeling' items in NL's when pertinent/helpful to YOU.
Remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may also form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate any "most recent past" performance forward forever, PSY-chologically", ever, because you will likely miss the next bunch of Gainers, dig ? Just because the "last few" may not have worked, does NOT mean "the next few" will not....in historical FACT, the vast makority of "PSYCLE sm" iodeas HAVE indeed worked....it is one's "psyche expectations" which are sometimes too anxious, too S.T.
So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6)
and (7), long and/or Put/short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T., in-the-
money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have
never done "Puts", the March to Sept. period has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. tops occur, which may next exist after the rallies after this past decline....
3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning, and still remaining long, unless otherwise noted):
6) Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys,
near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always
Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts
Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential
drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down
appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
*** INITIAL "market" NOTES: Once again, we still have a "Split" market, with some extended/names/high-priced/ overpriced stocks topping/falling, while many depresseds are forming EVB's or bases, and actually popping....So, am awaiting better tops in extendeds to buy Puts into, while awaiting further breakouts, and/or pullbacks to buy long after, in many depresseds....but we are NOT emoting about it....we are just going to let "the action itself" tell us, which way to go, right ? Interesting, Crude and heating Oil cash futures themselves, rose as predicted, yet most Energy "stocks" pulled back, yes ? And, note pops in Steels, I am first/only to give out/catch for you herein, occured WHILE they Lose more $ financially, on their products, dig ? Again, there is NO "automatic/clear link" between "fundamentals" and "technicals", between "corporate stuff" and "stocks" movements, all the time, right ? ....re-read my booklet on "Scenarios/linkages".
a) Important Industry Group comments: obviously, extended "Drugs" I gave you here, were Puttables....also added some extended high-PE, OTC puttables....and, while, as you know, I rarely mention "Indexes" themselves, the NASDAQ, at around 1410., actually looks Puttable, with a close stop above, yes ? And, hence, the new Puts I added therein, below, Sectrion (3)....And, "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" certainly worked recently with the "I.R. cut expectation" play, this week, though, as you know, we NEVER trade V.S.T. indexes, etc. We got the "recent rise on/into expectations" and the "drop after it was announced, Tues./Wed.".... Also, as I said, Energy futures prices hit S.T. resistance levels recently, while some Oil Svc. stocks may be breaking saucer patterns again....and, took Utilities off pot. Put list, for now, as with Finls., Banks, Brokers, making new lows, more were taken off pot. long Buy list, which is interesting, again, because "the 95 %" generally incorrectly "automatically assume/link" 'Financials' as bullish, with lower IR's, yes ? Not this time....most Finl. stocks are down 50-70 %, INTO lower rates, yes ? (hey, I know, you're going to say, due to "foreign country problems, and stock dmarket drops", but, a) Finls. ARE part of "the market", and/but, down 50 % or more ? and so very quickly ? and, how coem NO ONE else (besides me) even hinted at possible tops in Financials, in July ? Anyway, if the employees/ analysts at Banks, Brokerage Firms, Mutual Fund, Mortgage/Finance companies were/are so smart, how come they did not warn "the 95 %" near the tops ?
"PSYCLE sm" note: I hope you are also beginning to read/view company/industry articles in YOUR "local" area papers, and learning how to judge/time stocks "the Psycle Way", by, often, going opposite (and/or late) certain reported stories.... or, at least, seeing where, in the Psycle, "certain kinds of stories" are most often disseminated, then relating those to where their stocks are in their Psycles ....this is something no one else in the world teaches but me, here, and in my 2 Booklets, on "How (not) to use Media messages", and "Scenarios/Linkages"
b) more "negative company news disseminated too late": all from WSJ, 9/29: 1) "Gillette layoffs, shuts down plant, amid order slowdowns"--- at 36., down from 62. where I gave out the Puts.... 2) "SHG" says 3 Q eps won't meet expectations, stock already below 7., down from 19., 3) "Lodging Ind. Starts to Scale back...." again, with HOT, HLT, MAR, HMT, PRH, ESA, Gamings, etc., stocks prices ALREADY down, a lot.... they also showed a chart of falling occupancy rates, WITH rising supply of rooms being added --- get it ? while they have Not yet formed "PSYCLE sm" bottoms, it is too late to "begin" putting these, dig ? 4) "MCN" job cuts, pretax charge: this stocks is IN a potnential EVB, see it ? at this stage, this news is NOT negative, and we remain long near 17., w/close stop.... 5) U.S. Home "net income to fall short of expectations": not only announced AFTER stock already down from 48. to 28., this also confirms my "PSYCLE sm" first prediction of "top" in many areas of R.E., I made on 7/31, and also proves that "a seemingly low PE ratio" is NOT automatically cause for a stock price rise or hold.... 6) "Pacific Rim Mutual Fund Suspends Sale of Shares": wish I could view more stocks of such stocks individually, because this is the kind of "EVB bottom at least, soon" type of story we normally look for, yes ? also, another such M.F. announced it was liquidating, last week.... 7) "CBTSY" announced lower eps expectations --- at 10-15., already way, way down from 60+., where I specifically gave it to you herein, as a Put....wow....the WSJ showed a price chart, with the words, "Hard Lesson" on it....the "Lesson" is to learn to spot roilling "PSYCLE sm' tops, then buy Puts some times, yes ? 8) "VAR" announced their earnings would be Below expectations--- yet its stock, which I gave you here recently to Buy at 33., hit 37+ before pulling back --- because its chart pattern said EVB, therefore, that "bad fundamental announcement" was of little or no "technical stock price consequence", at that time, right ?
c) For the umpteenth time, as I have taught you in my Media, and Scenarios, Booklets, "bad" news NEVER comes out near the top....only AFTER the stocks are already way down...."PSYCLE sm" Tip: Remember, overall, in timing stocks, it is not "the news item itself" that is important....it is WHERE in its "PSYCLE sm" that company's stock is, WHEN that certain types of news items are announced.... learn this....USE this ! And, last, Note, in the face of real financial problems in some Foreign countries: historically, if governments (like ours) would just stay OUT of trying to "affect" such economies, with external "actions", costing US $, needlessly, and just let those markets/systems right themselves, their economies and markets would eventually form stage 7 and stage 1 bottoms, again, normally anyway....Too often, such external meddling just prolongs the pain, does not help anywhere near to the extent hoped for, and costs nice people (us) money. The most recent example of this in historical fact: Orange County, Calif., dumped tons of Bonds, right at their lows, after their bankruptcy, remember ? Gee, if they just held the Bonds, for justa little while longer back then, they would have made everything back and more, shortly thereafter, as Cycle experts predicted. Instead, over-reactions from politicians and govt. people did that wrong, in their PSY-chological over-emotionalism, as usual....anyway, the message, is to try to act BEFORE price trends change, and never emotionalize based on fundamentals/news.
d) more improper/incorrect/misleading specific stock Media comments: 1) I have read/heard countless refrrals to "any market decline of over 20% as a "bear market officially"....hmmmm.....if a drop of just 20 % is a "bear" market, then what would the Financial Media call a drop of 30-50 % ? or 70 % ? Gee, I guess those wordsmiths would have to invent an even stronger "multi-word term" (please re-read my Booklet on "Scenarios, Words"),to "call" bigger drops....see how ridiculous all "labelling" is ? 2) Anyway, CNBC, Thu. 1st, 8:00, gal reporter said, "Citicorp is really getting creamed here, down 3 1/2, to 88. --- "creamed", yet down only 4 % ? Gee, she could have mentioned that CCI. had ALREADY fallen from $ 180., but no.... see ? they rarely give you the proper perspective/history.... 3) WSJ, 9/29: "European/Intl. Stock Mutual Funds Lose Glow"....and another article, "Mutual Fund Firms Reassess the Market....Recoil, Anticipating Leaner Times"....duh....telling us obvious things, late as usual....showed Euro/intl. funds generally down 30 % or so recently, and this shows us, the beginning of "baby-bathwater" characteristics by pro and lay investors....This is more stage 6 behavior, than stage 7 yet....not time yet for many of these stocks, but is "PSYCLE sm" evidence that the worst will probably be over soon for many depressed Foreign stocks.... 4) WSJ, 9/30: "Ailing Stocks of Health-Care Providers Get Scooped Up by Company Insiders": showed recent insider buys, in OXHP, MDM, HHC, SHG, CVTY, FHS, all stocks we have had our eyes on (and OXHP was a huge % Gain I gave you here already). "Health-orienteds" are a stage 7 "PSYCLE sm" I.G., as I have pointed out to you, and this is a decent L.T. sign, as expected, yes ? ....5) a valued CPA friend, who has never traded in his life, emotionally said his Merrill Lynch buddies said MER was a "great scalp trade" recently, at $ 54., because "it is already down so much", and, "look how big they are", and "you know they can't go under", etc. To which, after checking its chart (remember, 95 % of all financial people, and even most brokers, don't even view charts !), I replied, "well, it is still making new lows, and "PSYCLE" traders never buy until we see at least a semblance of an EVB....plus, people have trouble seeing the technicals of the stocks of the companies they work at, anyway, right ? You and he are getting too emotional about MER here, trying to "force" trade it on "hope/dreams"....you are pretty much just 'guessing', instead of learning the patterns, in your intellectual laziness, yes ?" So, just a few days later, today, at $ 44., well, you know the rest....That is no way to trade....
e) as expected, "the 95 %" (even within the Finl. Svcs. biz) over-watched/ over-reported/wasted tons of time/effort, with the recent 1/4 point Fed. I.R. cut ....All that confusing brain-numbing junk, was/is of little or not "D.U.F.P.P.V.", right ? As usual, it was all posturing and political 'stuff', because that's what the Media and the Industry does....For several days, all I heard was, how, when/if they cut the I.R., that would "help/be good" for the "Intl. (and potential U.S.) economic problems", right ? Well, then how come more of our stocks have Fallen, not risen, after the announced "I.R. cut" ? Sure, "Bonds" and "Utilities" are up, but not that much more, from their already-way-up levels, considering their lows were months ago, when the Analysts were nowhere near as bullish on I.R.'s, as they are now, yes ? Also, remember, as I pointed out months ago, all those Industry pros/experts who recommended/bought REIT stocks "because of their so-high expected yields/dividends and great fundamental prospects" back then, have LOST money, as their stocks FELL--- INTO lower I.R.'s....
so, I gave you over 90+ (wow) Quick, Large % Puts Gains, specifically, from July tops, to 9/1, here (with just a few VQ, VS puts losses just recently), plus a whole bunch more puttables, which "we" just missed herein, but "you" could still have caught, big-time, from July tops, into the 9/1, S.T. lows....I hope you had at least "some" of my successful Puts recently. Please View their charts to learn the patterns. You have had plenty of opportunity to catch tons of Puts right near prices suggested herein, many, over a period of days or weeks....Obviously, also had some Q,S losses in Long-siders here (about 20 recently), and, now, a bunch of Long-side Gainers given you, again....back and forth, right ? A proper portfolio should have had a few Q, small cut losses long-side, AND also at least a few big % Gains in some Puts, lately....And, new Long buys again last week....See section (5) below for more details on recent-past Puts, from which to learn.... And, many depressed longs which broke their support a little recently, may well bounce back up towards where they broke down below, anyway, S.T., allowing another opportunity to get out of those, to cut losses, as taught in my Booklets.
note: As I said herein, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", and/or form double-bottom "W" formations ahead, vs. recently formed EVB's, which, when/if they occur, I will let you know, as usual....but, as always, (further) breakdowns below most recent lows/ support, are not argued with. Again, you can always also go back and view the 1-year-past charts, of the many previously "Hypothetically completed" successful PUTS trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, and at least "some" Puts, at amost All times, right ? We are in this for the long haul....my approach keeps you in the game, for when those big Gainers occur for us....we want to "just get close(r)", with no emotion, and more confidence.
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, more/new names here):
GSR @ 1 3/16, TTILF @ 4.06, AZC @ 9/16, SSC @ 11/16, CCH @ 9/32, CREAF @ 8 3/4, AMSWA @ 2 7/16, TER @ 18+, VSNR @ 3/4, RAYS @ 5 9/16, AND @ 5 5/8, EMN @ 49+, SFO @ 5 15/16, PHV @ 13/16, TPS @ 13/16, KF @ 5 5/8, ENS @ 11-, ATV @ 1 13/16, ALN @ 6+, FLH @ 8-, PAP @ 5, TLZ @ 5+, MCN @ 17.06, CAU @ 5/16, NR @ 7-, VGZ @ 1/8, WHR @ 45+ ....most are EVB's....note, still some Long buys here....there is still something for everyone here...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....and/but some New ones.
LEARN THIS: when, in the past, I had been seeing fewer "quality" higher-priced stocks as depressed buy patterns, that should have told you something about "the market", back in June....but we have been adding more longs, After the recent mini-crash, dig ? This just makes sense....Please try NOT to read, nor "emote", about news stories about worldwide financial/economic/ political events....
** Important: took, VNTV, LRCX, HRBC, NWAC, IMGN, LEH, MWD, DLJ, CCA, HLT, JPM, TRV, IST, BT, EQ --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/ trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, and some $ 5-10. stocks, and some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in Section (3)
in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the
"process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (Section (3)),
and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their
depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now -- Section
(6) and (7) are for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "Guide", the "BDG/EVB essay" and the "Downside" booklet (and all 6 booklets) offered....very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/patterns....I try to make this easy for you. But, always start, with Section (3), here, first.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops:
MSFT @ 114, FISV @ 48+, CTAS @ 50+, ASND @ 49+, ADLAC @ 43+, HSY @ 69+, LNCR @ 42+, FNM @ 66+, ASDV @ 42+, MEDQ @ 31+, IDXX @ 24+, ELNK @ 45-, NEON @ 45, INSO @ 21+, CMCSK @ 48, CEN @ 60+, JNJ @ 80+, WAT @ 67-, CLV @ 22 1/2, COF @ 114-, ELN @ 73+, BDX @ 42+....again, at this stage, we only buy Puts on extended potentially toppy issues which have Not Yet fallen, only near their highs, right ? note, added extended Drugs....
Important "PSYCLE sm" technical note: Because of how extendeds have become since March, and july, tops, I am going to give some Puttables which have "minor new highs", and/or "minor breakouts above patterns" some benefit of the doubt, here, hanging in a bit longer then normally would, taking slightly more risk.... of course, always diversifying, ONLY in L.T., in-the-money options anyway, to further lower risk....
as with the Long side, some are new Puttables, some are repeats....obviously, given recent declines, its a bit "late" to "begin buying most puts blindly here", therefore fewer Puttables, right ? And/but, took, PDCO, WATR, DUK, LGE, FRE, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed double-bottom/EVB/base pattern.... So I am assuming, you actually have Viewed it's recent chart, BEFORE you consider buying any/those issues as Longs or Puts, and you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that particular stock....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns.
....and/but, we just Missed, VIA, IDTS, LSON, XIRC, LGTO, MISI., EAGL, MSTR, AAPL, MYG, FRE, MRK, as Puts near recent highs, and, BC, LB, as Longs given you and/or found here near very recent "EVB" lows among stocks recently given you herein (also view last lists given you here).
Important: while I have given you a ton of successful Puts, note how many more big-name, higher-priced stocks have formed double-tops-with-lower-second-tops, not even giving us the chance to get into their puts....as I have been saying here, this was NOT a good sign for "the market", from March, and from July, dig ? I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" and LEARN the patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, whether the market is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for the future.
As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some
long-side issues....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of
various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely Bottom, and
rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, into fear, once they bottom,
right ? And, as we have already seen, twice, since March, stocks of "growing
fast" companies, will still FALL, at times, when they form "PSYCLE sm" tops, even
as higher "earnings" are announced....So, we'll also be watching for this ahead. And, a few, small, cut losses along the way, will not hurt us much, regardless. By buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, with close stops, we should make some money regardless, soon, again, yes ?
Given recent action, that my concept has still given out/caught many stocks which are UP into this not-so-great period, recently, is satisfying ....I certainly hope you always properly Cut quick small losers properly.... remember, after mini-crashes, often, the first reflex-dead-cat bounces do not necessarily hold, but many DO, and many form "W" bottoms, so we ACT to take advantage, regardless.
and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, AFCI., ATW, ODETA, IDTI., ISSI., CDI., ATML, VOX, IOM, MRVC, WY, LDW, ADM, VIAS, COT, OEA, PDE, VRC, MCL, IKN, COT, GCO, WHR, PZL, MCN, SMI., TIG, LSI., pb (pulling back)....again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/pensions accounts, with stops, diversified.... Again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 12, long-siders, and also 5 to 12, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification.
*** important: obviously, the whole key from here, long-side, is for many of our EVB's, to breakout, further, again, above this week's S.T. "highs" ! and, many stocks are approaching their "previously-broken-down-from price levels, here, right ? So, many "must stregthen further" or become "sales on strength" (sos), we'll be watching for that.
note: ("sos") means "Sell
On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and/or are sales on strength
("sos") to/towards resistance:
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(Important Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"....("S") means sell/sold the long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above)....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... *** IMPORTANT, especially after recent drops, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables which are declining, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
also, please be sure to view charts of, CBTSY down -20 more, CATP, WHIT, CGX, BYL, CLX, XYLN, APOL, VTSS, EL, BCE, TRB, SZA, DASTY, JAII., USTR, OSSI., BRK.B, AMCC, MEG.A, POS, CKR, TEF, SPLN, VOD, TBL, CSG, TRB, LXK, BNI., ICN, AWA, SHW, BCF, HOT, MTX, IMP, KRI., ANF, plus the long, long recent past list of dozens of Puttable stocks I gave you in Section (5) here near their tops, which fell even further, recently, as originally predicted here for you....please see their charts to learn the "toppy" patterns further....
I had given you a ton of Puts winners, from March, and July, so far, yes ? remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., at least towards their 200 DMA....that's another reason why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options, always diversified, where suitable....some people say it has been quite Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" has found so many winning puts, in this supposed "bull" market (which, as I said, may have ended in March/April ?), which I do appreciate....hey, most other NL's and analysts and people never ever buy Puts at all !!! Yet too many people continue to listen to, and/or buy their output, when they could have ours.
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): TWX +2, CVS +2, HSY, HHS, CTL, JNJ, CLV, GLX....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.
note how much larger the Long-side lists have become, after the mini-crash:
"industry groups": no great bases here, just some EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here):
Semis/Comp./Techs (CDI., NN)
Prec. Metals (GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (KMT, BIR, NS, PKX, IGL, HPC, COG, DE, EMN, LTV, LZ, DEX)
Energy/Services (BHI., MCN, PZL, PKD, ESV, FLC, PDE, BDI., RDC, BDG, UTI., NR, near lows only) and, we must see renewed rises here, breaking above recent V.S.T. highs on these, but getting more pullbacks here)
Health (TOX, VTR, BEV)
Asian/Latin Amer./Foreign (TZA, ICA, PAP, to, KF, ROC)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel (add, FTL, to, RAYS, ADM, FINL, TLZ, HMY, USI., PIR, DTG)
Banks/Insur./Finls. (TIG, CNC, IMP, TMA)
....we were the first/only, to have caught many depressed "land-based" stocks near recent lows here for you (Farm, Metals, Steel, Energy Svcs.), most Golds/Oil. Svcs. were/are already up, and even pulling back already, also the first in Rairoads, Healths, Foreigns, Golf, and cheapie-Techs, here for you....
*** oh, and, note, more some depressed Temp. Job, Telecom, and, "shoes" (JBAK, FLH, GCO, WWW), Aero./Def., Papers (PAP), as oversold/improving industry groups, are also close to forming L.T. late stage 7/early stage 1 bottoms ahead, so will keep my eye on those as well for you....and all this also says something about "the market" here, yes ? ....it's broadening out, a bit, but some of that is because more stocks are falling further, yes ?
And, as I have been saying from early June here, while some depresseds Are likely to set up again, mostly being EVB's, do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, this time, as when I gave them out in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from late '95 to early '96, when I also was first/only to do so near their lows then), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's....while accepting some Q, small losses so far in some, w/close stops....Also note the "backing and filling and pullbacks" I suggested recently here, occuring, as many depressed stocks pull back after initial "dead-cat bounces"....
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": VNTV, LRCX, HRBC, NWAC, IMGN, LEH, MWD, DLJ, JPM, TRV, CCA, IST, BT, EQ --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically , first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, it is continuing to be a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or had more Puts....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first....
and also Watching --- note, added a bunch more, which, again, should tell you something about how many EVB's the are out here: added, FTL, LIZ, NR, WS, to, PIR, AMSWA, QSII., UPX, BC, IRF, JPM, NB, ATV, SMTK, AMMB, HXL, FLS, IMP, OC, DTG, DEX, KCS, LYO, AMLN, TRID, SIII, IDTI., WCS, SME, ALN, PHV, CD, CREAF, RDRT, EGGS, ISSI., TTILF, CYI., WCS, ATV, NTN, HAL, PCMS, COT, IFMX, OLGC, LSS, TIG, SPNSF, ANET, GEMS, CLCX, GDC, FLH, FWC, IOM, IRF, LDW, TEK, BDG, BDI., CZM, MCY, TNL, BGO, ELY, UTI., AXC, LTV, GRERF, RAYS, ILX, AND, FINL, RYO, GSR, AWF, MCL, TSA, ODETA, CAU, AZC, SAMC, DAY, PDE, RDC, IGL, DEN, DANKY, VTR, BEV, CZN, CCH, HPC, IKN, DE, NS, LZ, MS, as "EVB's", some here, but some Not just yet, as they need more work, technically.... and/but, not any when/if they make new lows....again, some of these may/will, instead, form EVB "W" "double- bottom" patterns....note, I removed a bunch which have bounced already....
*** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Also, obviously, given recent drops, the "potential EVB list" is bound to grow, somewhat, yes ? Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ? Many stocks are being priced as if there is no tomorrow, some L.T. busted takeovers, some ridiculously high dividend yields if paid, some just beginning late stage 7/early stage 1 here. Plenty to take a shot at here, w/close stops ....DO buy long some things, and/but do NOT "never" buy Puts, either !
NEW SECTION: just FYI, these have had most/recent significantly above-average "insider activity" ("IA") (we're talking min. 4-5-6 min. insider buys, with NO sales), but, still, most all definitely occured before recent EVB's, and at higher prices than today's prices, dig ? They are Not necessarily Buys here, as I teach, unless they also form proper bases/EVB's, anyway: BSRTS, ESC, APA, ACK, BHI., ELY, EOG, ESV, CNC, IGL, NEM, PZL, RDC, SLB, BDG, COT, LFB, PDE, SEE, ROK, SPC, SMI., SOL, TNL, USI., ADM, IBP, GAP, FLS, OV, PA....there are many more with "just" 3-4 buys in a "PSYCLE sm cluster", just FYI, to give you an idea why I have added so many more EVB's lately.....as you can see, most are within our favored depressed Industry Groups, wish I had the time to finish my "IA, from a 'Psycle sm' p.o.v." booklet....I will try to do so soon....
As I have always said/taught: LEARN, that, as I have proven countless times over the years, normally, NO amount of "reported good or fundamental news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in S.T. stage 4, 5, or 6, from falling/further....recent proof of this, lies in the declines, not only in Energies late 1997, but in Financials, Retails, and now, many others, which have fallen/are falling, in recent weeks/months --- into "higher earnings", dig ?
and/But, just Not yet, in: PDCO, WATR, LGE, FRE, DUK, taken Off potential puts list, before "put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if that issue is still making new highs....yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less portfolio risk or stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it, I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of All potential Puts ideas, which takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not broken out, before you get in.
again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among
extended Big-name, High-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Internets,
Consumer, Health/Drugs....But, again, as of Sept. 1st, is a bit late for most. ...and, ONLY into a rally, ONLY near their highs, right ? Interesting, that my "puttable groups list" broadened, in July, before the recent declines, dig ? But, not going to fight the tape, removing utilities, dig ? We will catch plenty more Puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) (as with calls, and all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned, from all my past NL
commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/Booklets", and memorizing the specific characteristics of each, of the 7 (seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm", a while ago (in my NL's, from 7/27 through 8/17), and each NL forward for a while, wherein I covered each sequential "PSYCLE sm" stage, one by one. (this/that was very valuable information --- So, hopefully, now you know about all about stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, in my "PSYCLE sm", illustrated here for you....hope they helped), today's brief Lesson, is:
To Note how, the S & P, DJIA, and NASDAQ, Indexes, all stopped their initial oversold pops/Bounces, right at the levels where their respective 50-day MA and 200 day MA's, met, recently....and "the 95 %" still refuse to acknowledge the value of technical analysis and chart pattern recognition....This has occured after every decent correction we have had since 1987, as I told you to expect.... Of course, the bigger question, as I first proposed in March/April when I said that 1998 "would be the first not-so-good year in big-name stocks in a long while", is whether we form longer bases, or "W" "double-bottoms", over time, among depressed issues....But that is not as important to "individual stock traders", than it might be to "buy-and-hold-forever" people, and/or "mutual fund holders", because they generally tend to hole more Extended stocks, right ? The ones which are not as much already down a lot in price....Regardless, when I see Tops, we will Put them, and when I see EVB's, we will Buy them, with close stops, diversifying, anyway, without getting illogically turned off because of S.T. "stuff" or Fears....The Lesson, is to learn the chart patterns, with the 200 DMA, at least, because, in markets like we have been having, the 200 DMA generally stops initial rises from depressed levels, and provides S.T. support after initial declines from extended levels, dig ? But, you already know that....Knowing just these simple things, makes one way above average, compared to "the 95 %" of even people IN the Financial Services Businesses.
LESSON: note how I added more extended Puttables again recently.....as taught at length in my "Downside/Puts" booklet, the strategy of "catching the laggards" I cover more fully therein, now comes into play, as I found more issues which have S.T. tops, which had not yet corrected....some Finls., Techs, Drugs, and high-PE issues, mostly....Last, with things getting a bit "sloppy" here, as in may/June, do NOT get "turned off" in possible S.T. antsiness and/or potential PSY-chological desire for "instant riches or else"....markets ALWAYS go, from "clear sailing" long, not good Puts- to "unclear/choppy" long, some Puts -to, worse long and more puts -then "clear" for puts, fewer longs- and, last, fewer puts, adding more longs, dig ?
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, similarly, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves.... this is a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action, like we had earlier in 1998, and, again, in August, with the Techs/Asians. The Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, have proven that yet again.
Last, this still is somewhat "semantics", and "stage labels" don't really matter that much here, since our expected holding period is still, 2-4 months, and we are not trying to catch longer-term, huge potential stage 3 rises....Initial Upside targets from stage 2 pullbacks (or pops up from stage 7 EVB's) are still, up around the still-falling 200 day MA's, and/or previously-broken-down-from price levels, right ? It is only important, that we recognize, and ACT to take advantage of, high-reliability patterns, like depr. bases, and/or EVB's, and/or double-bottoms, at times when "the 95 %" are most scared, near lows, with close stops, and no emotion, right ?
*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or
put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in
Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and,
Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those
issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to
your "Guide" to my NL, which was sent to you.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you
a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be
done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my
valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for
various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people
would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly,
right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that much more
quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE
sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)