1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) MER finally downgrades SNE - already completing its full 3-yr. trip, from $ 30 to 150 (where MER liked it, right ?), to $ 33 now, dig ? they are so negative on SNE now, they even said Fri., "this may not even be the worst-case scenario, there is a substantial risk of further stock price decline, many further negative funademntal items abound", according to J. kernan, CNBC, Fri. 11:25....so watch for probable double-bottom, ahead, ay ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) note how I am re-adding previously successful Puttables in sec. (7) below....and, how extended Financial, Health-relateds, cont. to be on that list, dig ? ....3) and, while I have been way better than most everyone out there on them for years now, but wrong recently, i still say depr. Energy-relateds on my changing lists remain buyable with stops, esp. L.T.....to ignore them, is to be just plain uninformed....
4) interesting, even with their stocks up as predicted (amoing the first few to do so) herein, the P/C ratio for bigger Gold stocks is rising from depressed, and normally bearish down there, levels....while all those stocks are too high to warrant buying here, this is normally a bullish development bearing watching.... 5) as usual, I will have been the first/only to have called the EVB in Travel/Airline/Leisure stocks herein for you, yes ? but, of course, no one will have bt. them, right ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) as if he couldn't be 'wronger', L.A.T's T. Petruno, headline, last week, "it's never too late to confront the bear", as I predicted, was indeed a decent S.T. bottom "PSYCLE sm" signal....now we gotta just hope he does not get too bullish too fast, ay ? ....2) yet another near-perfect bottom sign, as, in "Bottom Line" rag 9/25, two headline articles were titled, "Time to think about Munis" - late'high, as usual, and, this best one, "How to profit from the big, bad bear market"....great, huh....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) B. Schaeffer is adamant that we have seen NO 'capitulation' yet.... 2) John Templeton (I certainly repsect him on some levels, but don't get me started), on CNBC, Mon. 8:23, actually said "this bear market will continue for 1, 2, maybe 3 more years, especially in Tech. stocks....stocks are still way too high...and it just started a month ago....but we never know when tops or bottoms are....and U.S. people's incomes could easily fall another -20 % from here....buy US treasury bonds....I have been beginning to buy lots of those recently, 5.7 %...." uh, excuse me ? Tech stocks had/have already fallen a TON, yes ? when interviewer reminded him of his maxim, 'buy at extreme pessimism' (like now), he rebuffed it, which remains puzzling....of course, as i said when I (alone) called HIS "PSYCLE sm" top, years ago, his performance has been below avg. in recent years....and be bt. a bunch of supposedly blue-chip-buletproof stocks that fell big without a stop from him....
3) again, they will never change: analyst Mike Hurley of Soundview, Tue. CNBC 8:56, actually said, "the next 6 mos. might be a little bit challenging", gee, guy, don't be even remotely helpful....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, more longs, and, more Puts (some bal.) , wow:
bal. puts CHTR (24+ to 12+) for 200% Gain....bal. puts ICCI (27 to 18-) for 135% G....1/2 pos. stock PCLN (2- to 4.) for VVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. stock KGC ((0.48 to 1.00) for L.T. % G....1/2 pos. calls FON (20 to 24+) for L.T. % G....
note, actually, most all the '1/2 pos.' Put Gains probably should be 'all pos.', given sentiment and overall mkt. oversoldness' ? so, assume all of those pos. should have been sold last Thu./Fri.
and/but, longs, DTPI, GEMP, RCG, and, puts, BAX ?, PBG ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio (well, perhaps a little more than usual, with recent rare events)....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. CCE @ 15-, 1/2 pos. COHU @ 14, 1/2 pos. MODT @ 7+, 1/2 pos. VVTV @ 12, ZBRA @ 36++, 1/2 pos. TKLC @ 12-, 1/2 pos. PVN @ 19-, 1/3 pos. TEK @ 17, 1/2 pos. GSPN @ 8.11, 1/2 p[os. CDIS @ 15+, 1/3 pos. CANI. @ 7-, 1/3 pos. CNH @ 5+, 1/3 pos. DY @ 11, 1/3 pos. HOFF @ 5+, 1/3 pos. MAPS @ 7.1, 1/4 pos. NYFX @ 13, 1/3 pos. PSEM @ 13-, 1/4 pos. CSCO @ 11+,
1/3 pos. ADTN @ 18+, 1/3 pos. AGU @ 9, 1/3 pos. ATMI. @ 14+ ?, 1/3 pos. AVX @ 15+, CASY @ 11, 1/3 pos. CCE @ 14+, 1/3 pos. CNXT @ 7+, 1/3 pos. DELL @ 16+, 1/2 pos. DY @ 11+, 1/3 pos. KLIC @ 10+, 1/3 pos. LEXG @ 6.02, 1/3 pos. MCD @ 26.1, 1/2 pos. PHSY @ 11+, 1/3 pos. RVST @ 1 1/4 (risky, x-box play), 1/3 pos. SATC @ 5, 1/3 pos. STXN @ 5.25, 1/2 pos. UTSI. @ 14+, 1/3 pos. X. @ 13+, 1/3 pos. SUNW @ 8-, 1/3 pos. VIRL @ 9+, 1/3 pos. TIE @ 2.4,(note, decided was too risky/early for MESA, so was not bt.)
1/3 pos. EXAR @ 15+, 1/3 pos. HOT @ 18, 1/3 pos. TGI. @ 21++, 1/2 pos. CASY @ 11+, 1/2 pos. CLTK @ 11 ?, CNXT @ 7+, 1/3 pos. JDEC @ 6++, 1/3 pos. GT @ 17+, 1/3 pos. MOT @ 14+, 1/2 pos. PLXS @ 21+, 1/3 pos. UEIC @ 13+, 1/4 pos. RDA @ 17, 1/4 pos. AVL @ 6+, 1/3 pos. BRW @ 14+, 1/3 pos. AAPL @ 14+, 1/2 pos. CCI @ 7 5/8, 1/3 pos. DIS @ 16+, 1/3 pos. DISH @ 20, 1/3 pos. DNR @ 7+, 1/2 pos. JNIC @ 5+, 1/3 pos. ORCL @ 10+, ORTC @ 6, 1/3 pos. PCLN @ 2,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): BBOX @ 40, PWAV @ 10+, 1/3 pos. JLG @ 9+, VGZ @ 0.075, VRA @ 1+, REMC @ 7, LU @ 5+...."buy (only) low", right ?
if I had a gun to my head (and, in a way, I do), I'd say, these have the best relative patterns here, in no special order: UEIC, CLTK ?, CNXT, LTBG, DNR, JDEC, PHSY, RCG, REMC, CCI....obviously, if these have not broken patterns in THIS market, were decent shots, with close stops, yes ?
** Important: took, PROX, AES ny, GLC, ACRI, ESST, SBAC, CRGN, TWAV, MERQ, MSLV, GYMB, Q, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....but, just last time here, many issues were decent 'shots', given my V.S.T. bottom assumption....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): CRL @ 35+, 1/2 pos. ESRX @ 55+, ITG ny, ss NAFC @ 35-, 1/2 pos. IART @ 31-, 1/3 pos. SLM @ 83- ?, 1/2 pos. UNH @ 67+, 1/2 pos. STK @ 68+,
"Repeats": 1/3 pos. HSY @ 65+, 1/2 pos. MO @ 48+, 1/2 pos. PRHC @ 39+ ?, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 33+, MON @ 34+, RJR @ 58+, JHF @ 40, 1/2 pos. BRK.B @ 2350, IVC @ 40+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, CYTC, TXU, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sectionsGYMB,
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CBR, PXLW, SRNA, SONE, PCTL, BDAL, GYMB, SNWL, MSLV, SBAC, SEBL, SOI, CVG, VRSN, ABI, ET, KYO, DMRC, BTGC, APCC, ASIA, W, CXR, RPM, CPC, GLC, HIFN, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CR, TXU, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
plenty more nice big S.T. winners:
TIE 3.78 up 1.33, VRA 1.52 up 0.38, LEXG 8.3 up 1.3, VVTV 13 1/2 up 1 1/2, STXN 5.80 up 0.65, CMNT 12.27 up 1, LU 5.80 up 0.56, UTSI. 17.18 up 1.07, AVL 6.7 up 0.6, GSPN 8.65 up 0.65, CDIS 16.65 up 1.31, HOFF 5.76 up 0.46, PVN 21.1 up 2.2, BRW 17.2 up 0.91, TKLC 12.6 up 1.1,
more: DIS 19, CSCO 11.87 up 0.70, DJX. LD 8.8, FON 24.11, JDEC 7 1/4, UEIC 15.08, PCLN 4.09, DISH 23.64, ANF 18.1, GT 18.45, ARXX 12.00 up 0.56, VIRL 10.10 up 0.60, RVST 1.70, RDA 18.84, ADTN 18.91, X. 14.48, CMH 5.45 up 0.25, MCD 27.65 up 1, FON 24.39, CCI. 9.10, up/higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
most all Techs, and, almost everything else, like, UTHR 14 up 1 1/2, CASY 11 (B), CATZ, REMC 8.1, 7.1, 7.7, 7 (B), AAPL, VRA, BBOX 40 1/4, LU, VGZ, CNXT 7.33, 7.88, UEIC 14, DNR, PWAV 10.64 (B), 11.91, CNC, X. 13.95, CCI. 8.15, DISH 23 up 1, TGI. 21.6, 23.1, PCLN 3.11, 3.51, 3.21, TGI, EXAR 16.45, HOT 20.8, 22.1, GT 17.66, ANF 16.8, RDA 17.39, LEXG 7.6, some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
PLXS 22-, LNUX, KANA, VGZ, UTHR, CHINA, UAL (oy), RGC, CLTK 10.90, AVX 15+, and most all Techs....and, are/were, DTPI, SPCT, AGU, LTBG 9, 8, 9, IDT, 'fobd's ?....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
still more decent drops, yes ?
CHTR -4 (S), ICCI. - 4 (S), NAFC -3, ESRX -2, CRL -1, lower, some further, since last NL here....while, TXU, fell to its 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/ol
-st Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ? not too much chance of that as of 9/21, ay ?):
adding some Depressed Gaming, Cable, Gold, Agriculture-oriented, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative energy, Ind. Groups....and some Brokers improving technically and sentiment-wise ? and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
semiconductor-relateds: ADI, AVX, MOT, KLIC, COHU, PSEM, and more just below,
telecom/commun.-relateds: FON, PWAV, CMNT, NOK, PCTL, WCOM, DISH,
and, as i intimated, some Airline/Travel, EVB's: TGI, AVL, HOT, FLYR, etc.
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
SEBL, ARMHY, AGEN, CCBL, CDIS, ZOMX, CANI, CATT, ECTX, ELNT, FLEX, GENE, GLBL, HOFF, IMNX, MKSI, MAPS, MANU, MEDX, PEGS, MODT, PSEM, NYFX, OPWV, PHTN, XOMA, SIVB, SRNA, SYKE, TTEC, SNWL, TKLC, TWAV, VVTV, VRTY, WBSN, ZBRA, BMC, CCE, ET, VSH, SGR, AG ?, CPE, CXR, IM, IDT ?, FTS, SGI, TCC, RRC, AWA, RSH, SFA, SLR, NT, CVG,
to, PHSY, X, ATMI, ADTN, ADPT, ASIA, ANDW, WCOM, AMT, SUNW, COHU, BORL, CASY, CLTK ?, UEIC, CNXT, ENTG, FALC, APCC, INCY, RVST, IDCC, KLIC, MKSI, LTBG ?, PXLW, UTSI, VIRL, ANF, SATC, BSC, CNH, APH, GT, X, RDA, AVL, CBR, DNR, DY, TFS eh, TNL, TGI, WCG ?, ORTC, MDCC, SOI, PCLN, JNIC, JDEC, CNC, FAF, ASA, LOR, CCI, STXN, BBOX, REMC, DNR, CCE, CATZ, as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy Svcs. again as EVB's ? GLBL, HOFF, RRC, etc.
and, of course, gotta have one Airline near recent lows, with close stop, like, AWA, CAL, DAL, NWAC, etc. ? but, of course, they are laready up, before 'the 95 %' wrere even aware, as usual, yes ?
new, separate, probably temporary 'EVB' list, in no special order, mostly very big names: DIS, ORCL, SUNW, TGI, HOT, SLR, ANF, and, gosh, many others....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, ACS, CAH, CRL, ITG, KG, XL, PGR, UNH, KMP, STJ, MKL, JNJ, AAON, NAFC, to, PRHC ?, AOT, PBG, LDR, SLM, PLB, MO, CMX, to, AMHC, UOPX, SNV, JHF, AHG, RJR, ESRX, ACDO, SFG, BRK/B, HCA, IVC, AMSG, ATRX, ENZN, LIZ, TALX, DYII, BBY, MON, PLNR, STU, GILD, CHS, ITT, CHD ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES