1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) seeing another in a long line of depr. stocks only I gave out herein from hated lows, get taken over = SDW, Friday, note, it was/is a 'cement' co., despised by all, because it supposedly had no 'sexiness'....yeah, right, I guess $ 15 to $ 70, even in 2 or 3 years, stinks, huh....next.... 2) note, added more depr. Chem, in section (6) below....as usual, I will be the first/only to do so.... 3) buy, we sure were the first to give the previously depressed Regional Banks stocks herein for you from lows, back then, ay ? neat....a small list in section (4), FYI....most all now sales on strength - just as 'the 95 %' being to like them, as usual, right ? also, note higher highs in more of the depr. basing Techs I gave you herein at lows, which I could get no one to buy down there, remember ? ....4) and, check the extended Elec. Util. stocks in section (7) below....as usual, if true, I will again be the first/only to put them.... 5) also note, I 're-added' several puttables in section (7) below....and, in section (5), more puttables having further drops, as a second stage down (re-read my Downside Booklet).... 6) and, more Energy puttables, section (7) as well.... 7) note, I was, again, the first and only, to have given you depr. Chem. stocks bouncing, herein, like, PX, ROH, HPC, DOW, SEE, GY, ARG, etc., yes ? by the time 'the street' even remotely likes them, you will have gains, as usual....the pattern rarely changes....remember, this was a partially 'linked' trade opp. the Energies topping S.T., right ? and you still fight these successful patterns ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) this one will be perfect: Mon., CNBC's eve. story grabber, was, "all the kids want 'em....will scooter stocks be hot ?"....as usual, late, too high, etc., dig ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) and, 10/1 front-page headline L.A.T., Walter Hamilton column (don't get me started), "Volatile Market Tempts More into Selling 'short'", writing, "all but written off as a hopeless strategy in the 1990's, short selling is again on the rise...." Showing chart of shorted NASDAQ shares, rising from 1.8 bill. shs. early 1999, to 3.2 bill. shs. now, he neglected to mention hedged by tons of options, but that's something only a nice, good reporter would have mentioned, ay ? Plus, he mentioned "many traders have been shrting as NASDAQ techs have been falling...." But, gee, guy, NO firm will allow anyone to do that, except on an 'uptick'....you'd think a head financial writer would know that....and, anyway, note, as usual, this article only comes out AFTER many big drops among Tech. stocks, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....but he did properly point out that, "the 10 (supposedly) biggest short-selling pros tracked by Morgan Keegan, have lost money for 5 straight years now....but are up + 7.3 % so far this year...."
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) L.A.T. headline story, 9/29, "Good Times in Store at Bergen Brunswig ?" , as usual, late, at 'new 52-wk. high', when I was first/only to give out BBC at basing low herein for you, ay ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) and, as usual, Mon. 10:45 am, CNBC had pres. of HNCS on -- bullishly -- interesting, since, when I was the first to give it as base buy herein for you, around $ 40 (now $ 80+), NO one wanted to hear about it, dig ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) ....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) good point: a guy on CNBC, pointed out that, hidden from all view dishonestly, NO 'tax plan' by either political candidate (don't get me started on politics) will prevent 1 mm people from owing/paying the AMT (more, technically), instead of the reg. tax rate (lower, technically), on their earnings, forward....plus, making things less flexible for those successful people....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
all calls WCII (14++ to 21+) for VVVVVQ 200% G....bal. puts ADCT (44 to 26+) for Q 150% Gain....bal. calls NFB (15+ to 21++) for 150% G....stk.on.mgn. ASHW (4. to 7++) for L.T. 111% G....all stock CORL (3 5/8 to 6 3/4) for 85% G....all stk.on.mgn. ESR (5 to 8-) for 90% G....1/2 pos. calls NTLI (40- to 50-) for VQ 80% G....bal. puts ATON (150 to 111) for VQ 85% G....
and/but, longs, R. (18 to 21 to 18-), NSC, AM ?, AMI. ?, TGX ?, ALI, COVD, ATHM, ENT ?, AU ?, XDSL, SSCC, ELNK, ZMBA, DCLK, and, XRX (15 to 13) for bigger loss, and, puts, , VTSS ?, VRSN ?, INRS, for very quick, very small losses, of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio.... been too many QSL's recently, but no real damage, and mostly overcome by more, and bigger, Gains....but certainly discouraging....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
BDX @ 25-, 1/2 pos. DG @ 16+, 1/2 pos. FCX/A @ 8 1/8, GENE @ 19-, 1/2 pos. LEA @ 20, 1/2 pos. MRD @ 20-, 1/2 pos. NIKU 21 ?, 1/2 pos. PUMA 18 ?, 1/2 pos. RG ?, 1/2 pos. RT @ 9 1/8, TSP @ 15+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4, ABS @ 20++, AEN @ 1 13/16, AII. @ 8, AM @ 16++, AMI. no ?, ATYT @ 8+, AU no, AZC @ 0.85, BD @ 3 5/8, BEOS @ 4-, BGO @ 0.405, BGP @ 13 1/4, BSX @ 16 3/16, BYD @ 4 3/8, CA @ 25 1/8, CAU 0.87, CC @ 16, CMB @ 45+, CN @ 4+, CPB @ 24+, CTT @ 8+, CTV @ 23, DCN @ 21-, DOL @ 13++ ?, DOW @ 24, DPH @ 14+, DROOY @ 15/16, DT @ 34-, ENT ?, ESR @ 5--, F. @ 24+, FFA @ 22+, GENE @ 19 ?, HAS @ 11, HDG @ 1.00, IHK @ 1.03, IKN @ 4, JBOH @ 3 1/2, K. @ 23+, KRY @ 1.31, LOR @ 5 9/16, LRW @ 3 3/4, LZB @ 14, MAT @ 10, MUEI. ??, OCN @ 5.47, PER @ 10, PKS @ 14+, REP @ 18+, SEE @ 44+, SGC @ 7.56, SIEB @ 7 1/4, SPLS @ 13+, SVU @ 15+, TMG @ 4.43, TSP @ 15+, UNP @ 38, UPM @ 24 1/2, USU @ 4 1/8, WYN @ 1 3/4 ?...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, REY, SR, GP, AIB, CMCSA, CVM, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
(new ones): 1/2 pos. BBH @ 198+, COGN @ 42-, 1/1 pos. DGX @ 120, 1/2 pos. DV @ 39, 1/2 pos. EMC @ 101+, 1/2 pos. ENE @ 90-, EOG @ 40, 1/2 pos. HSY @ 55-, PCP @ 39+, PMCS @ 230+, SUPX @ 51, 1/2 pos. WFC ?
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') ANEN @ 140+, AXP @ 61+, CBL @ 25+, CHKP @ 156+, CHRW @ 60-, CYN @ 40++, EXAR @ 123-, EXPD @ 49+, FLEX @ 87, FRX @ 120, GE @ 60-, GSPN @ 146, HGSI. @ 182, LLTC @ 69, NVDA @ 85-, SANM @ 108-, SLR @ 49+, SRNA @ 47, VTSS @ 90-....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, CEFT, DIS, AES, VRSN, AMCC, ELNT, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).... remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", BOL, CERG, DGTC, LGTO, NEON, SLS, REY, LFB, AIB, HSP, PX, ROH, ORCT, MAI, EX, IN, NAV, MLS, FNV, FFD, GEMS, PBI, ATX, SR, WPO, USB, FO, CIT, AZO, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, RKY, CLS, BRCM, MVSN, MEDI, NMSS, MLNM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
still giving you plenty more risers: CORL 7 1/8 up 3 7/8 wow (S), NTLI. 50.31 up 9, WCII. 21 up 6 5/8 (S), INAP 31 up 3 1/2, ASHW 7.81 up 0.75 (S), HRC 9.06 up 0.81, AAI. 4 3/4 up 3/8, ENTU 29.81 up 2.69, RT 9.62 up 0.62, MRD 20 7/8 up 1 3/8, BLS 42 1/2 up 3 1/8, DG 17.18 up 1.12, SEE 47 up 2 3/4, DT 35 3/8 up 1 3/4, VZ 49 7/8 up 2 1/2, EWB 22 1/8 up 1, CA 26.18 up 1.18, F. 29.43 up 1, DCN 22.18, JDN 11 7/8, ESR 8.06 (S), WB 57 3/4, CMH 10 1/8, DOW 25 1/4, HLTH 15 9/16, NFB 22 (S), ARG 7.06, CC 16 1/2, DL 11.56, UNP 39.56, REP 19.18, GLT 12 1/4, BSX 16 5/8, ABS 21.56, higher, since last time here....and, HNCS 81, PHCM 120+, CMRC 80+, HB 45, URI. 24, BID 25, UST 24, SUB 37+, GSB 24, KEY 27, NDE 21+, FED 23, BN 24+, RX 21, WPO 528, FFD 10 3/4, even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
BDX 24, 26 5/8, USU 4 1/2 up 3/8, DPH 15.31 up 1.31, AM 17 7/8 up 1 5/8, LZB 15 up 1, BCC 25 dn 2, PKS 15 1/4, WIN 15, INAP 26.56, INCY 38, AU 18, HLTH 13.81, GENE 19, ASA, CSCQ, SPLS, BEOS 3.90, OHI, UPM, MRD 19 5/8, BGP 13 1/8, JBOH 3 5/8, NOVL, USU, GY, PMTC, CN, BD, HOV, MLG 7 1/2, HA, ALI, BYD, PHC, OHI, CAU, ATYT, MLG, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) VNWK 7 1/2 up 1, DCLK 30-, CTV 23-, RAD, AMI, LRW, STEI, DOL 13.68, CPWR, LZB, BCC, PER, BD, TGX, ENT 35+, PMTC, MUEI, BBI. 9, HOV, ENT 34.43, JBOH 3 1/2, PER 10-, CTV, WYN, MLG, AM, CMH, ASL, UPM, AN, USU, BTO....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
PMCS -30, BBH -16 1/2, NVDA -10, EMC -6, SUPX -4, FRX -4, HGSI. -3, PCP -3, ENE -5, HSY -3 1/2, CHRW -2, CHRT -2 1/2, COGN -2, DV -2, DGX -2, lower, since last NL here....also, see, CMTN 36, CMOS 30, AMAT 60-, ADCT 26-, IDX 25, MU 43, MSFT 58+, down even further....hah....and, ATON, MEDI, hit their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
Health-relateds (ALI. ?, BSX, HLTH, GENE, BDX, INCY, etc.)
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, MLS, BNP, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, AII, etc.)
Retails/Apparel/Merchandise/Office (ASHW (opbo), SPLS, BGP, IKN, DG, fewer)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (BD, WAB, AAI, UNP, F, DCN, DPH, AFWY, CSX, CUM, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, ASA, BMG, FCX, AU, DROOY, PDG, BGO, CBJ, RT, etc.), Housing (LZB eh, CMH tln, CN, WYN, eh, etc.), Paper (GLT, BCC, BOW, etc.), Food-related (CKR, SVU, FFA, DOL, IHK, BLM, CPB, K, FFA, CCE, etc.), Banks (opbo), Funeral, Farm/Land/Fert., Grocery (WIN, ABS), and Precious Metals, Leisure/Travel/Toys, Aero./Def., Industry Groups....
"busted techs" (ATYT, CPWR, PER, HLIT, ENTU, INAP, and those below)
and, notice, re-adding previously-given-at-lows-before-recent-pops, other busted Techs, here and below,
and, Online Brokers/Financials (SIEB, JBOH, DIR, CMB, WB, STI, EGRP, CIT)
and, Commun. (TSP, and 'long-distance stocks' ? WCOM, DT, WCII, VOD, LU, etc., as EVB's, etc.)
and, Chem. (DOW, SEE, HPC, and more added just below), Energy (TMG, TSO, REP, HEC ?, etc.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
add, (in no particular order !): BOW, CIT, CSX, CC, DG, CUM, N, LEA, PX, ROH, UIS, CFW, SKS, AKS, ATI, AIR, MRD, FCX/A, ORB, CRDS, MCTR, NIKU, VIGN ?, IFMX ?, DLTK, BTX ?, SLS, BAL, LMG/A eh, NCI, PT, TSP ?, TRRA, PUMA, VERT ?, MSTR, PLB, AIB, DRTN ?, CTXS, CNET, BXS, GEMS, F, MRD, AIB ?, NTG no ?, NAV ?, IFC, SGC, AEN, TEC, CTT, CA, ENT, AGS, to, MLS, DCLK ?, FNT, BDX, LOR, BOY, UVA ?, MMS eh, ETYS nah, ECO no, UVA ?, OBJX, FSW, MAH, FDO, RBC, BLM ?, FND ?, QSC, BGO, UCR, WTT, JS ?, FBN, PHC, CKP, GSTRF, JBM, ESR, ATX, MDG, PII, CCL, FSW, IKN, HAS, CTO, MAT, IT, DL, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead.... and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, MLS, JDN....
and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, CGP, RKY, DV, AVE, BXP, D, EMC, ENE, HSY, FS, MRX, COGN, OAKT ?, GLW, DNA, ORCL ?, BRCM, WFC, DGX, PCP, EGN ?, AXP, JBL, FLEX ?, PMCS ?, XLNX, MLNM, NMSS, EOG, APWR, to, CHKP, BLDP, HGSI, INFA, IWOV, MVSN, TOY, MER, GS, GR, EXPD, EXTR, VTSS, SANM, CBL, APH, ADI, CYN, SLR, INRS, GE, IDTI, LLTC, SUPX, PLXS, CHRW, ARBA, AUDC, SLR, to,
(repeats) BRCM, FLSH, NVLS, SSTI, MTG, DVN, BSC, LSCC, XLNX, PSEM, NVDA, ANEN, GSPN, ATON ?, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, from recent past NL's....some Semis declibned to their initial downside levels, already....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES