1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I
put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit
learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some
times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....which will tell you something
about "the market" overall, yes ? Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm"
stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational
benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are
in Section (3) each NL. Note, I am putting more "learning/feeling" items in NL's
when pertinent/helpful to YOU.
Remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may also form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate any "most recent past" performance forward forever, PSY-chologically", ever, because you will likely miss the next bunch of Gainers, dig ? Just because the "last few" may not have worked, does NOT mean "the next few" will not....in historical FACT, the vast majority of "PSYCLE sm" ideas HAVE indeed worked....it is one's "psyche expectations" which are sometimes too anxious, too S.T., or too demanding....
So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6)
and (7), long and/or Put/short side, for cash, or on margin, or only L.T.,
in-the- money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you
have never done "Puts", the March to Sept. period has been the time to Learn how
to do so, using my "booklet" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for
the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. tops
occur, which may next exist after the rallies after this past decline....
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning,
and still remaining long, unless otherwise noted):
6) Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys,
near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always
Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing patterns break down:
7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts
Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential
drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down
appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
*** INITIAL "market" NOTES: Once again, we still have a "Split" market, with
some extended/names/high-priced/high-PE/overpriced stocks I have been giving you, topping/falling, while many depresseds are forming EVB's or bases, and some actually popping, while others breakdown....So, I am awaiting better rises/tops in extendeds to buy more Puts into, while awaiting further breakouts, and/or pullbacks to buy long after, in many depresseds....but we are NOT emoting about it....we are just going to let "the action itself" tell us, which way to go, right ? Interesting, that Crude and heating Oil cash futures themselves, rose as predicted, then had S.T. tops, yet most Energy "stocks" pulled back earlier, yes ? And, note pops in some Steels, I was first/only to give out/catch for you herein, occured WHILE their "companies" Lose more $ financially, on their products, dig ? Again, there is NO "automatic/clear link" between "fundamentals" and "technicals", nor between "corporate stuff" and "stocks" movements, all the time, right ? Re-read my booklet on "Scenarios/Linkages".
a) Important Industry Group Notes: obviously, seeing deterioration in some already-depressed Energy issues, so continuing to be careful with them, Further rises in some of our Golds, declines in our Drugs, and more extended Techs give U here as Puttables....VIEW the 200 DMA's among Puttables....also, the WSJ "Asia/ Pacific Index" chart still shows a decent saucer "PSYCLE sm" potential bottom (but Not the Nikkei.). Last, the whole Mortgage/Finance Ind. stocks group have gotten decimated recently, and many very articles/stories have appeared of massive negativism....None show EVB's yet, but they do seem to be priced, as if none, of a dozen huge such companies will survive....but that would seem impossible, yes ? So, keeping my eye on them for EVB's....We continue to hold above-average cash balances, especially among non-puttable acccounts...
b) KWHY-tv, Fri. 10/2, 1:00 pm, pst: long-time Mutual-Fund L.T. occasional switcher, Fabian, said there is "no future appreciation potential in them, even from here, and to sell, all small caps, Internationals, Asian, Latin issues and funds...." Wow....could be a decent bottom signal ? we shall see....also, CNBC, 10/5, 8 am, pst, reported said, " Abbey J. Cohen is trying again to come to the market's rescue....saying there will be no recession....she has been bullish during the recent declines...." So, why not report on a prognosticator who has been more correct or bearish, instead ?
c) postscript to I.R. nonsense: WSJ chart of Federal Funds Rate since 1990, showed F.F. Rate basing, then rising, from 3 % to 6 %, from mid-1992 to early 1995, while "big stocks" ROSE over 50 % in value, dig ? I.R.'s rose, doubling, yet/and stocks rose, together....see ? They do NOT have to move opposite each other ! And, recently, we have had I.R.'s Falling, AND stocks Falling, together, right ? More "PSYCLE sm" proof, that most "Scenarios/Linkages" do NOT exist.
d) more incorrect/misleading/late Media company statements/reports: 1) Oct. 1, Morgan, Stanley downgrades "Retail" stocks....now, only AFTER their nice drops.... gee, who was the first/only to give Retails here as Puts, right near their highs ? me....anyway, M,S is quite late, right ? ....2) Oct. 2, L.A. Times: Dow Jones Co. and Marriott Issue Profit Warnings": gee, DJ had already fallen from 58 to 42, and MAR was already down from 38 to 22....thanks for nothing....for the umpteenth time, "bad/worse" news never is reported near highs, only after big drops....
e) WSJ, 9/25, article, "(Foreign) Closed-End (Mutual) Funds Offer Panic Protection": huh ? not only is that blatantly WRONG, they even showed a performance chart of those C.E.M.F.'s, as having FALLEN 20-30-40 % in recent months....hmmmm....that's hardly "protection"....Had they viewed their own chart, they would not have been able to create this incorrect/misleading article, yes ? Anyway, this also illustrates how few professionals even view historical price charts....Such drops are NOT "Panic Protection" are they ? They guarantee "panic Losses", yes ? Last, as usual, NO mention is ever made of selling near highs, nor of short-selling, nor buying protective/profit Options/Puts possibilities....
f) Another Follow-up, re: H.Y./junk Bonds, WSJ, 9/28: "Riskier Bonds, After Big Fall, Attempt Rally": with a chart, titled, "Is The Worst Over ?" After losing 20-30-40 % in the last few months alone, many such Funds have had initial bounces off lows....so what....hey, teach us how to recognize/time these securities, before the trends change--- don't just report something that already happened, which we cannot now take advantage of here, as being too late now !
g) new advert from a major B-firm, says two "general, supposedly helpful things, which, in reality are just lip-service, and/or potentially NOT helpful historically", as I teach in my Booklets on Media, and Scenarios: 1) they say, "add intermediate-term bonds to serve as a cushion in the even of future market declines"....Sure, they say that NOW, AFTER big declines, which they did NOT predict, nor recommend "puts" or "stops" or hedges before they occured, right ? and, second, this past century, such Bonds have ALWAYS vastly UNDER-PERFORMED growth stocks, over time.... 2) they then say in this advert, "the stocks of very good (VG) companies tend to weather rough periods better than stocks of more speculative companies...." hmmmm....so, the real quick, recent, big, 50 %+ drops, in many such companies' stocks was a GOOD thing for their holders ? yeah, right. ....my dear subscriber, as I teach, ALL "labelling" is harmful ! and, second, please define the term "very good companies"....give me a list of them, right now, and forever....see ? can't be done....They are either wrong about holding certain stocks L.T., instead of occasionally trading/timing them, or, they are wrong about "labelling" certain stocks as "VG" or "speculative"....right ? ....3) then, the advert says, "now is a good time to weed out the weaker names in your portfolio" ....hmmmm.....does that mean, "don't sell near their tops, but wait until they decline a lot, then sell them near their lows" ? or does it mean, this B-firm never helps their clients sell near tops, or hedge/protect, or buy correct Puts, and they only came out with this advert, as a late, seeming-valuable-but-not-in- reality, psychological ploy ? ....4) last, B-firms always seem to be telling you things AFTER the fact, just like the Media does....Think about this: Many suypposed "VG" companies are only termed "VG" when/if their stocks are up/rising ....these same companies somehow then later become "speculative" only AFTER their stocks fall a bunch, dig ? See why one has to view and analyze stocks "the PSYCLE sm" way, instead of how "the 95 %" do ? read my "Scenarios" Booklets' section on "Words"....
so, I gave you over 90+ (wow) Quick, Large % Puts Gains,
specifically, from July tops, to 9/1, here (with just a few VQ, VS puts losses
just recently), plus a whole bunch more Puttables/Gains,plus a few which "we" just missed herein, but "you" could still have caught, big-time, from July tops, into the 9/1, S.T. lows....I hope you had at least "some" of my successful Puts recently. Please View their charts to learn the patterns. You have had plenty of opportunity to catch tons of Puts right near prices suggested herein, many, over a period of days or weeks....Obviously, also had some Q,S losses in Long-siders here (about 20 recently), and, now, a bunch of Long-side Gainers given you, again.... back and forth, over time, right ? A proper portfolio should have had a few Q, small cut losses long-side, AND also at least a few big % Gains in some Puts, lately....And, new Long buys again last week....See section (5) below for more details on recent-past Puts, from which to learn....And, many depressed longs which broke their support a little recently, may well bounce back up towards where they broke down below, anyway, S.T., allowing another opportunity to get out of those, to cut losses, as taught in my Booklets.
note: As I said herein, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to
have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", and/or form double-bottom
"W" formations ahead, vs. recently formed EVB's, which, when/if they occur, I
will let you know, as usual....but, as always, (further) breakdowns below most
recent lows/support, are not argued with. Again, you can always also go back
and view the 1-year-past charts, of the many previously "Hypothetically
completed" successful PUTS trades from previous NL's, to "see/learn" more, and
this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested
ideas, and at least "some" Puts, at amost All times, right ? We are in this for
the long haul....my approach keeps you in the game, for when those big Gainers
occur for us....we want to "just get close(r)", with no emotion, and more
confidence.
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note,
more/new names here):
TLAB @ 38, SAMC @ 5 3/4, TTILF @ 4.06, LTR @ 83-, DCLK @ 19+, DE @ 29+, FLM @ 12-, ELY @ 10, TK @ 18+, WIT @ 20+, COT @ 15, AZC @ 9/16, SSC @ 11/16, CCH @ 9/32, CREAF @ 8 3/4, AND @ 5 3/16, AMSWA @ 2 7/16, VSNR @ 3/4, EMN @ 49+, RLM @ 49+, LYO @ 20 1/8, PHV @ 13/16, SMI. @ 32++, TMO @ 14+, TEK @ 15+, DTG @ 10, TPS @ 13/16, MCL @ 9 13/16, AXC @ 1.06, KF @ 5 5/8, ALN @ 6 3/16, FLH @ 8-, PAP @ 5, TLZ @ 5+, MCN @ 17.06, CAU @ 5/16, IKN @ 7 3/16, TOX @ 5/16, NR @ 7-, VGZ @ 1/8....most are EVB's....note, still some Long buys here.... there is still something for everyone here...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....and/but some New ones.
LEARN THIS: when, in the past, I had been seeing fewer
"quality" higher-priced stocks as depressed buy patterns, that should have told
you something about "the market", back in June....but we have been adding more
longs, After the recent mini-crash, dig ? This just makes sense....Please try
NOT to read, nor "emote", about news stories about worldwide financial/economic/
political events....
** Important: took, DANKY, TRID, AMMB, OLGC, JPM, HMY, HXL, TMA, ILX, SEI., MS, CD, NB, OC --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/ trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, and some $ 5-10. stocks, and some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in
each NL.
Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in Section (3)
in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the
"process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (Section (3)),
and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their
depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now --
Section (6) and (7) are for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the
"Guide", the "BDG/EVB essay" and the "Downside" booklet (and all 6 booklets)
offered....each/all very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/ patterns ...I try to make this easy for you. But, always start, with Section (3), here, first.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops:
CLV @ 22 1/2, LLL @ 39+....again, at this stage, we only buy Puts on extended potentially toppy issues which have Not Yet fallen, only near their highs, right ? NOT the ones which are "already down a bunch"....
Important "PSYCLE sm" technical note: Because of how extendeds have become
since March, and july, tops, I am going to give some Puttables which have "minor
new highs", and/or "minor breakouts above patterns" some benefit of the doubt,
here, hanging in a bit longer then normally would, taking slightly more risk....
of course, always diversifying, ONLY in L.T., in-the-money options anyway, to
further lower risk....
as with the Long side, some are new Puttables, some are
repeats....obviously, given recent declines, its a bit "late" to "begin buying
most puts blindly here", therefore fewer Puttables, right ? And/but, took, PDCO,
WATR, DUK, LGE, FRE, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their
patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT:
sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested
stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed double-bottom/EVB/base
pattern....So I am assuming, you actually have Viewed it's recent chart, BEFORE
you consider buying any/those issues as Longs or Puts, and you will see/know
this, and therefore NOT buy that particular stock....this takes just 10 seconds
each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort
budding patterns.
....and/but, we just Missed, MSTR, CTYA, MISI., BSYS, FORR, MERQ, SBL, as Puts near recent highs, and, AEP, RLM, as Longs and/or found here near very recent "EVB" lows among stocks recently given you herein (also view last lists given you here).
Important: while I have given you a ton of successful Puts, note how many more big-name, higher-priced stocks have formed double-tops-with-lower- second-tops, not even giving us the chance to get into their puts....as I have been saying here, this was NOT a good sign for "the market", from March, and from July, dig ? I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" and LEARN the patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, whether the market is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time.... that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for the future.
As I said, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in some
long-side issues....Again, while the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of
various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely Bottom, and
rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, into fear, once they bottom,
right ? And, as we have already seen, twice, since March, stocks of "growing
fast" companies, will still FALL, at times, when they form "PSYCLE sm" tops, even
as higher "earnings" are announced....So, we'll also be watching for this ahead.
And, a few, small, cut losses along the way, will not hurt us much, regardless.
By buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, with close stops, we
should make some money regardless, soon, again, yes ?
Given recent action, that my concept has still given out/caught many stocks which are UP into this not-so-great period, recently, is satisfying... I certainly hope you always properly Cut quick small losers properly....remember, after mini-crashes, often, the first reflex-dead-cat bounces do not necessarily hold, but many DO, and many form "W" bottoms, so we ACT to take advantage, regardless.
and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, BNYN 3 5/8 3 1/8, CSX -3 1/2, ODETA, GALTF, ATW, IDTI., ISSI., EGGS, DCLK, CDI., ATML, VOX, IOM, MRVC, LDW, FLH, BEN, WY, ADM, COT, OEA, VRC, ACK, MCL, AZC, CZN, BDG, RDC, ESV, IKN, COT, GCO, MCN, SMI., TIG, pb (pulling back)....again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/pensions accounts, with stops, diversified....Again, you must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 12, long-siders, and also 5 to 12, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification.
*** important: obviously, the whole key from here, long-side, is for many of
our EVB's, to breakout, further, again, above this week's S.T. "highs" ! and,
many stocks are approaching their "previously-broken-down-from price levels,
here, right ? So, many "must strengthen further" or become "sales on strength"
(sos), we'll be watching for that. So far, very few have done so....
note: ("sos") means "Sell
On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and/or are sales on strength ("sos")
to/towards resistance:
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
(Important Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"....("S") means sell/sold the long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above)....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit ....remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness.... let them do their thing....*** IMPORTANT, especially after recent drops, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables which are declining, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
These previously given Puts near their highs, fell even further: please be sure to view charts of, CBTSY down -20 more, XEIKY, CATP, WHIT, SPLN, FORE, CSCO, CGX, MTC, NSIT, RCOT, CATP, FILE, BOCB, FMO, TRB, DLP, KEA, BYL, CLX, XYLN, APOL, VTSS, EL, BCE, TRB, SZA, DASTY, JAII., USTR, OSSI., BRK.B, AMCC, MEG.A, POS, CKR, TEF, SPLN, AFC, VOD, TBL, CSG, BNI., ICN, AWA, SHW, BCF, HOT, MTX, IMP, KRI., ANF, RHI., CGX, LU, C., plus the long, long recent past list of dozens of Puttable stocks I gave you in Section (5) here, which fell even further, recently....please see their charts to learn the "toppy" patterns further....and, note, JDEC, CPWR, JKHY, MTC, also fell anyway, see them ?
I had given you a ton of Puts winners, from March, and July, so far, yes ?
remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, even S.T., at least towards their
200 DMA....that's another reason why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options,
always diversified, where suitable....some people say it has been quite Valuable,
that my "PSYCLE sm" has found so many winning Puts, in this supposed "bull"
market (which, as I said, may have ended in March/April ?), which I do appreciate ....hey, most other NL's and analysts and people never ever buy Puts at all !!! Yet too many people continue to listen to, and/or buy their output, when they could have ours.
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): CMCSK, FNM, UMG, BDX, HHS, CTL, CLV....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
note how much larger the Long-side lists have become, after the mini-crash:
"industry groups": no great bases here, just some EVB's (but, again, Not if any
of these make new lows here):
Semis/Comp./Techs: CREAF, RDRT, CUBE, AXC, no bases....
Prec.Metals (GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies, all Only near lows)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (add, WIT, GGC, ICI., NH, to, BIR, NS, PKX, IGL, HPC, COG, DE, EMN, LTV, RLM, LZ, DEX, BS)
Energy/Services (add, IMO, to, BHI., MCN, PZL, PKD, ESV, FLC, PDE, BDI., RDC, BDG, UTI., LYO, HAL, NR, near lows only) and, we must see renewed rises here, breaking above recent V.S.T. highs on these, but getting more pullbacks here)
(new) Biotech/Health (add, INCY, IDPH, NOX, ORG, MME, ICN, to, TOX, VTR, BLUD, VTR)...finally found some "Biotechs" for you, as promised....
Shoes (JBAK, FLH, GCO, WWW, FEET)
Asian/Latin Amer./Foreign (add, APF, to, TZA, ICA, PAP, KF)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel (add, SAMC, BUR, to, FTL, ADM, FINL, TLZ, USI., PIR, DTG, MSN, LTR)
Banks/Insur./Finls. (TIG, CNC, IMP, CCI.)
....we were the first/only, to have caught many depressed "land-based" stocks near recent lows here for you (Farm, Metals, Steel, Energy Svcs.), most Golds/Oil. Svcs. were/are already up, and even pulling back already, also the first in Railroads, Healths, Foreigns, Golf, and cheapie-Techs, here for you....
*** oh, and, also note, some depressed cap. Goods, join, Temp. Job, Telecom, Aero./Def., Papers (PAP), Eyewear, as oversold/improving industry groups, are also close to forming L.T. late stage 7/early stage 1 bottoms ahead, so will keep my eye on those as well for you....and all this also says something about "the market" here, yes ? ....it's broadening out, a bit, but some of that is because more stocks are falling further, yes ?
And, as I have been saying from early June here, while some depresseds Are
likely to set up again, mostly being EVB's, do NOT expect as large rises off
bottoms, this time, as when I gave them out in the late '97/early '98 period
(nor, from late '95 to early '96, when I also was first/only to do so near their
lows then), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's.... while accepting some Q, small losses so far in some, w/close stops.... Also note the "backing and filling and pullbacks" I suggested recently here, occuring, as many depressed stocks pull back after initial "dead-cat bounces"....
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": DANKY, TRID, AMMB, OLGC, JPM, TMA, ILX, SEI., HMY, HXL, NB, MS, OC, CD --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, it is continuing to be a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or had more Puts....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first....
IMPORTANT note: again, some EVB stocks may, instead, form S.T. "W" double-bottom patterns down here....watch for that....be patient....some just take a bit longer to form, as per my "BDG/EVB Booklet" examples....which is fine, since we are NOT doing "overnite" trades, right ? Also note, some EVB's have been
improved, from "watching" list, to the actual "EVB" list, yes ? Obviously, given
recent drops, added many new EVB's, as follows:
and also Watching --- note, added a bunch more, which, again, should tell
you something about how many EVB's the are out here: added, CBTSY, ALTR, ANDW, ZD, UNO, IDPH, INCY, VLSI., WFSL, TLAB, CIEN, WWW, NSC, RLM, COO, AXC, NOX, ORG, AOI., BDT, MTZ, MME, FEI., WIT, SOC, CNK, MXF, TEI., IGT, ICI., TK, ICN, NH, IV, to, FTL, LIZ, PIR, PAP, AMSWA, IRF, SMTK, FLS, IMP, DTG, DEX, LYO, AMLN, IDTI., WCS, SME, ALN, PHV, CREAF, RDRT, EGGS, ISSI., TTILF, CYI., WCS, NTN, PCMS, COT, IFMX, LSS, TIG, SPNSF, ANET, GEMS, CLCX, GDC, FLH, FWC, IOM, IRF, TEK, BDG, BDI., CZM, TNL, BGO, LTR, ETN, ELY, UTI., AXC, LTV, GRERF, DCLK, FEET, AND, RYO, AWF, MCL, COT, TSA, ODETA, ADM, CAU, HAL, AZC, DAY, RDC, IGL, DEN, VTR, CZN, NSC, CCH, HPC, IKN, CCI., DE, NS, LZ, BC, NR, WS, as "EVB's", some here, but some Not just yet, as they need more work, technically.... and/but, not any when/if they make new lows.... again, some of these may/will, instead, form EVB "W" "double- bottom" patterns (like, WWW, FLJ, TMO, CD, BS, some Banks ?)....note, I removed a bunch which have bounced already....
*** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Also,
obviously, given recent drops, the "potential EVB list" is bound to grow,
somewhat, yes ? Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your
time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last
few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form
any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ? Many stocks are being priced as if there is
no tomorrow, some L.T. busted takeovers, some ridiculously high dividend yields
if paid, some just beginning late stage 7/early stage 1 here. Plenty to take a
shot at here, w/close stops ....DO buy long some things, and/but do NOT "never"
buy Puts, either !
NEW SECTION: just FYI, these stocks have had most/recent significantly
above-average "insider buying activity" ("IA") (we're talking min. 4-5-6 min. insider buys, in a short time, with NO insider sales), but, still, most all definitely occured before recent EVB's, and at higher prices than today's prices, dig ? So, they are Not all necessarily Buys here, as I teach, unless/until they also form proper bases or EVB's, anyway: in no particular order: BSRTS, ESC, APA, ACK, BHI., ELY, EOG, ESV, CNC, IGL, NEM, PZL, WIT, RDC, SLB, BDG, COT, LFB, PDE, SEE, ROK, SPC, SMI., SOL, TNL, USI., ADM, IBP, BMC, CRO, GAP, FLS, OV, PA, DRE, MT, SFDS....there are also many more with "just" 3-4 buys in a "PSYCLE sm cluster" , just FYI, to give you an idea why I have added so many more EVB's lately....as you can see, most are within our favored depressed Industry Groups....also, many REIT's have seen tremendous Insider Buying, but at higher levels, a little while ago, so whether those people are any good at IA remains to be seen....wish I had the time to finish my "IA, from a 'Psycle sm' p.o.v." booklet....I will try to do so soon....again, this is NOT, a "buy automatically" list !!!
As I have always said/taught: LEARN, that, as I have proven countless times
over the years, normally, NO amount of "reported good or fundamental news" (other
than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in S.T. stage 4, 5, or 6,
from falling/further....recent proof of this, lies in the declines, not only in
Energies late 1997, but also in Financials, Retails, and now, many others, which have fallen/are falling, in recent weeks/months --- into "higher earnings", dig ?
and/But, just Not yet, in: none, taken Off potential Puts list, before
"put"....remember, we do NOT buy puts, when/if that issue is still making new
highs....yes, we will miss "some" right near their tops, but by waiting for
double-tops and/or umbrella tops to form better, we will have fewer small cut
losses, and we will still catch plenty of Puts over time, with less portfolio
risk or stress....again, when/if an issue breaks out immediately after I add it,
I remove it, period. You must please check the recent charts of All potential
Puts ideas, which takes less than 10 seconds each, to make sure they have not
broken out, before you get in.
again, The best Puttable Industry Groups Sectors, continue to be among
extended Big-name, High-PE, Techs, Retails, Housing, Communications, Internets,
Consumer, Health/Drugs....But, again, as of Sept. 1st, is a bit late for most.
...and, ONLY into a rally, ONLY near their highs, right ? Interesting, that my
"puttable groups list" broadened, in July, before the recent declines, dig ? But,
not going to fight the tape, removing utilities, dig ? We will catch plenty more
Puts in the months ahead for you (we already have, yes ?) (as with calls, and
all options, min. L.T., in-the-money, diversified, ONLY).
No Lesson, today, Besides all the lessons you hopefully have gleaned, from all my past NL commentaries above, and from my (six) "essays/Booklets", and memorizing the specific characteristics of each, of the 7 (seven) sequential stages in my "PSYCLE sm", a while ago (in my NL's, from 7/27 through 8/17), and each NL forward for a while, wherein I covered each sequential "PSYCLE sm" stage, one by one. (this/that was very valuable information --- So, hopefully, now you know about all about stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, in my "PSYCLE sm", illustrated here for you....hope they helped).
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some"
stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news
seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut
losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, similarly, 2) TRY at least "some"
"Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to
never do any....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable price moves.... this is
a Good thing....Also, try to learn about "baby-with-bathwater" selling action,
like we had earlier in 1998, and, again, in August, with the Techs/Asians. The
Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the
stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to
be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they
only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then (buy then ? a
pun, get it ?), it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain
intelligent/logical, proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for
direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, have proven that
yet again.
Last, this still is somewhat "semantics", and "stage labels" don't really
matter that much here, since our expected holding period is still, 2-4 months,
and we are not trying to catch longer-term, huge potential stage 3
rises....Initial Upside targets from stage 2 pullbacks (or pops up from stage 7
EVB's) are still, up around the still-falling 200 day MA's, and/or
previously-broken-down-from price levels, right ? It is only important, that we
recognize, and ACT to take advantage of, high-reliability patterns, like depr.
bases, and/or EVB's, and/or double-bottoms, at times when "the 95 %" are most
scared, near lows, with close stops, and no emotion, right ?
*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or
put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in
Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and,
Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those
issues might set up properly as longs/puts....you can also always refer back to
your "Guide" to my NL, which was sent to you.
*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two reasons: 1) to give you
a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be
done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid"
than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of
my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios,
for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some
people would not be able to create Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify
properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns, you will learn that
much more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit
different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are
truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in
sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows,
right ?)