1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) added new Puttbable groups, like, medical, drug, retail, generics, hmo's, etc., in sec. (7) below, get it ? as usual, I am the first/only guy doing so here.... 2) and more puttable Banks/S & L's....hmmmm....even with low(er) I.R.'s, see ? ....3) and, I am certainly the first/only to give out recently, and now add more, Energy and especially some of the 'alternative power' potential long buys soon, sec. (6) below.... 4) and ditto with 'defense' stocks, which all of Wall St. now loves, get it ? just as happened with my Gulf War 'near perfection' ? will the pattern remain similar over time, this time around ? stay tuned....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) front-page recent L.A.T., headline "Disney's dismal stock run", showed chart of DIS from 1997, misleading as usual....they have always loved it after big runs, and hated it at every low, going back decades, yes ? and, recent Barron's also pans it....hmmmm....the pattern rarely changes.... 2) and recent Barron's idiot actually panned Ford and GM, saying it's pension liabilities may hurt it forward - when, of course, they were respectively, front-page gushed at their tops, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) Intel Cp. liquidated its bought-much-higher 4.7 m shs. of PCTL right at recent low....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) ....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, 7 more Longs, and, 3 more Puts, wow:
1/2 pos. calls HOT (18+ to 23-) for VQ % G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CMNT (8 to 13+) for % G....1/2 pos. COHU os, 1/2 pos. calls IMNX (14+ to 21-) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. calls TKLC (11++ to 16+) for VQ % G....all puts AHG (28 to 21+) for % G....bal. puts LNCR (32+ to 22++) for % G....1/2 pos. calls ORCL (11+ to 14) for VQ % G.... 1/2 pos. calls CDIS (16 to 19+) for VVVQ % G....1/2 pos. puts PRHC (38 to 30+) for VVQ % G....
note, actually, most all the '1/2 pos.' Put Gains probably should be 'all pos.', given sentiment and overall mkt. oversoldness' ? so, assume all of those pos. should have been sold last Thu./Fri.
and/but, longs, ORTC, JDEC, and, puts, MO ?, STJ ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio (well, perhaps a little more than usual, with recent rare events)....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AEGN @ 4-, 1/2 pos. ALA @ 10++, 1/3 pos. AMD @ 8+, 1/3 pos. CCBL @ 5 3/4, 1/2 pos. CMOS @ 11+, 1/3 pos. CZN @ 9+, 1/2 pos. ELON @ 12-, 1/3 pos. IEE @ 5.1, 1/2 pos. MDCC @ 18+, 1/2 pos. RADS @ 8++, UCFC @ 7-,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): 1/3 pos. GLBL @ 5+, 1/2 pos. IDT @ 11-, 1/3 pos. LOR @ 1.20, 1/3 pos. SPCT @ 9+, 1/2 pos. MODT @ 7+, 1/2 pos. PVN @ 19-, 1/3 pos. TEK @ 17, 1/3 pos. DY @ 11, 1/3 pos. HOFF @ 5+, 1/3 pos. MAPS @ 7.1, 1/3 pos. PSEM @ 12+, CASY @ 11, 1/3 pos. CCE @ 14+, 1/2 pos. DY @ 11+, 1/3 pos. KLIC @ 10-, 1/2 pos. LTBG @ 8+, 1/3 pos. X. @ 13+, 1/3 pos. VIRL @ 9+, 1/3 pos. EXAR @ 15+, 1/3 pos. TGI. @ 21++, 1/2 pos. CASY @ 11, 1/2 pos. CLTK @ 11, CNXT @ 7, 1/3 pos. GT @ 17+, 1/4 pos. RDA @ 17, 1/4 pos. AVL @ 6+, 1/3 pos. AAPL @ 14+, 1/3 pos. DNR @ 7+, 1/2 pos. JNIC @ 5+, PWAV @ 10+, 1/3 pos. JLG @ 9+, LU @ 5++, VGZ @ 0.075, VRA @ 1+, REMC @ 7, LU @ 5+...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, OPWV, BSC, SNWL, TTEC, BORL, CNH, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. DORL @ 40, GILD @ 59, 1/2 pos. FDO @ 29, FHCC @ 28, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26, MATR @ 24, 1/2 pos. NHP @ 20+ ?, 1/2 pos. RE @ 72+, 1/2 pos. SPH @ 28-, TXU @ 50,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. AAON @ 20+, 1/2 pos. CAH @ 75-, 1/3 pos. CMX @ 16+, 1/2 pos. KMP @ 37-, CRL @ 36-, DRMD @ 21+, 1/2 pos. ESRX @ 58+, ITG @ 58+, 1/2 pos. UNH @ 69, 1/2 pos. STJ no ?, 1/3 pos. HSY @ 65+, 1/2 pos. MO no ?, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 33+, MON @ 34+, RJR @ 60+ ?,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, XL, ACS, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sectionsGYMB,
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", EMLX, ELNT, PHTN, PXLW, SYMC, BMC, W, GENE, HELX, LTXX, AMD, IMCO, MACR, LBRT, ADI, AVT, ROG, FTE, TCC, DQE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, PDCO, SRCL, DIAN, RE, TJX, WLP, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
plenty more nice S.T. winners, wow:
CMOS 13.38 up 2, ATMI. 17- up 2, AMD 9.25 up 1.20, CDIS 19.05 up 1.55, KLIC 12.05 up 1.45, PSEM 13.45 up 1.11, LU 6.75 up 0.72, MOT 18 1/2 up 1, IEE 5.53 up 0.53, CCE 16.26 up 1.38, GLBL 6.30 up 0.32, CATT 14.95 up 0.95, MAPS 9.05 up 0.87, SPCT 10.60 up 0.87, ADTN 21.7 up 1, SFA 19.09 up 1.66, SUNW 9.85, EXAR 20.09 up 1.23, MDCC 19.18 up 1, CMNT 13.73 up 0.63 (S), DNR 8.14 up 0.48, NYFX 15.95, DY 12.02, ELON 13-, ALA 11.27 up 0.74, TKLC 16.3, CSCO 15.26, TWAV 12.89, ZBRA 42.89 up 1.39, up/higher since last NL here....while, IMNX, COHU, DMRC, ECTX, approached their 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more bounces after pullbacks:
obviously, after V.S.T. tops Thu., got many tech. pb's:
MODT 7 3/4 up 1/2, AAPL, IDT, CATZ, VGZ, DNR 7.85, CNC, X. 13.9, DISH, CCI, CLTK, CATT 13.46, REMC 7.50, 8.50, 7.93, PWAV 10.9, CNXT 8.94 up 1, TNL 23.49, 22.03, BBOX 48 up 3, ORCL 13.5, SUNW 9.1, UEIC, TIE 2.85, MAPS 8 (B), 9.05, RDA, JNIC 6.27, CMOS 11.70, VVTV, HOFF 6.35, AES 12.86, VRA, LEXG 7.15, EXAR, COHU, DIS 18+, LTBG 8.66, KYO 64+ up 2, HOT, FON, MOT 16.8, STXN 6 1/2, 7, NT 5.17, some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
LTBG, CNXT, DSS, LNUX, KANA, VGZ, UTHR, CHINA, UAL, AAPL, AGU, LOR 1.20, VIRL 9.32 (B), and most all Techs....and, are/were, EXAR, CNXT, TTEC, LU, WFII, etc., more 'fobd's ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
still more decent drops, yes ?
GILD -3, TXU -3, PRHC -2 1/2 (sow), MATR -2 1/2, LNCR -2 (S), FHCC -1 3/4, JHF -1 1/2, DORL -1, FDO -1 1/2, AAON, MATR, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ? not too much chance of that as of 9/21, ay ?):
adding some Depressed Gaming, Cable, Brokers, Agriculture-oriented, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, some Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative energy, Ind. Groups....and some Brokers improving technically and sentiment-wise ? and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
semiconductor-relateds: ADI, AVX, MOT, KLIC, COHU, PSEM, CNXT ?, KYO, and more just below,
telecom/commun.-relateds: FON, PWAV, PCTL, WCOM, CCI,
and, as I intimated, some Airline/Travel, EVB's: TGI, AVL, HOT, FLYR, AWA, and all the majors on pb's, of course, as previously suggested herein recently, etc.
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
EMC, AMTD, AMD, ALA, KO, CZN, GM, PD, UIS, CK, GEG, SCS, IEE, TCC, VCP, CALP, CPST, CMOS, CRYP, ENER, ETHK, FSII, ELON, ISSI, LBRT, MBRS, NEWP, NTAP, PROX, QTRN, RFMD ?, RADS, TKLC, TIBX, UCFC, WGRD ?, CVAS, CHRS eh, to, ARMHY, CCBL, ZOMX, CATT, GENE, GLBL, HOFF, IMNX, MAPS, MODT, SIVB, SYKE, TWAV, VVTV, VRTY, BMC, CCE, ET, VSH, AG ?, CPE, CXR, IM, IDT, FTS, SGI, TCC, SFA, SLR, NT, CVG,
to, X, ADPT, ASIA, ANDW, SUNW, CASY, CLTK, UEIC, ENTG, FALC, APCC, INCY, RVST, IDCC, MKSI, LTBG, VIRL, GT, RDA, CBR, DY, TFS eh, TNL, WCG, MDCC, SOI, JNIC, CNC, FAF, ASA, LOR, REMC, DNR, CCE, CATZ, as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy Svcs. again as EVB's ? GLBL, HOFF, RRC, CDIS, DNR, AES, GLBL, PDE, etc.
and, of course, gotta have one Airline near recent lows, with close stop, like, AWA, CAL, DAL, NWAC, etc., anyway ? but, of course, they are already up, before 'the 95 %' wrere even aware, as usual, yes ?
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, ASBC, DORL, FHCC, MATR, GILD, CINF, PDCO, SRCL, ATRX ?, ABK, STZ, GPI, FDO, RE, TJX, FBC, TXU ?, NDE ?, TGH, WLP, JEF ?, SPH, NHP, MAA, UDR, to, CAH, CRL, ITG, KG, PGR, UNH, KMP, STJ, MKL, JNJ, AAON, NAFC, to, AOT, LDR, PLB, MO ?, CMX, AMHC, UOPX, SNV, JHF, AHG, RJR ?, ESRX, ACDO, SFG, HCA, IVC, AMSG, ATRX, ENZN, LIZ, TALX, DYII, BBY, MON, PLNR, STU, GILD, CHS, ITT, CHD ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES