1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) well, NDB, not on my buy list, got a takeover bid.....will NITE or EGRP be next ? ....2) I love it, the same people who paid ridiculous prices for Internet stocks parabolically near highs, are now saying they are still too pricey, Wed., on CNBC ! ....3) in a rare scalp-EVB-attempt, I re-added COVD, MRCH, CHINA, HLIT, LU, INTC, MU, etc., near Wed. lows, close tsops below, these have too-goo-fundamentals to keep going down from here, dig ? understand, these are big drops from previous base patterns, NOT just-recently-broken bases stocks....different animal.... 4) note some B.S. strength in Oil Service stocks, 'with hook-story' in Middle East....
5) also note pops in some of our you-heard-it-here-first Gold stocks....are you gonna miss them yet again? ....6) viewing recent T-bond chart, actually looks buyable at 98, when/if holds, and T-Bill yield continued lower recently, NOT predicted by me here....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) TIcker Mag., Oct. again: unbelieveably (but not really) Maria Bartiromo, again, highlighted as the 'best bullish I.G." the - get this - Broker stocks - right at their tops - all the ones I gave you herein as Puts at recent tops.... 2) with further predicted-here-first-from-top decline in LU, Wed., analysts asked, "is the growth over for LU ?", and, note, many analysts still have LU as a 'buy', even as they held/hold it already down a ton, with no stop, etc., dig ? gee, shouldn't that Q. have been asked when stock was parabolic ? ....3) just another deserved slam on CNBC: I notice, they NEVER show the important 200 DMA on their terribly presented charts....
4) USA. T. 10/8, headline, "shoppers turn into buyers, boosting chain store sales", waas accompanied by a chart, showing their 'sales index' FALLING for months now....next.... 5) an another in a long line of stupid comments, from Martha McCallum, CNBC, Thu. after close, "Juniper sports a PE in the neighborhood of 2,310 , and is up about 356 % in the last 12 months...." Uh, since when are such spcific numbers, "neighborhood/about" ? amazing.... 6) and put this one in the books for a look-back: Friday, CNBC's Bill Griffeth did a story interview with supposed 'expert', on "the Chip business has peaked"....wow....if so, nice of them to let people know - after big price DROPS in their stocks - ay ? and also, probably, right at their EVB's, amazing, huh....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) Ticker Mag., Oct. issue, written Sept., headline, "When you're Hot, you're Hot", highlighted "growth stocks, NASD extended stocks, "growing so fast, we are so bullish on them, analysts can't keep up...." As you might guess, they were: BVSN, GSPN, INKT, JNPR, SSTI, TERN, TIBX, VRSN, and, as usual, see their corrections down instead, already....the pattern rarely changes" ....2) the same analysts who said it had no risk at the highs, are now saying, similarly, after close Tues. on CNBC, they reported MOT as "a no-brainer, can't lose guaranteed winner from here...." 3) I again laugh, when I see HD the latest 'no risk, phenomenally managed co." stock get hammered, recall, I was first to call its top herein for you....don't get me started....NO such thing as a "bulletproof stock forever"....
4) L.A.T. 10/9, "leading Indicators show USA economy continuing to slow", as I predicted....they cited: new-home sales, mfg., consumer, labor markets, I.R. spreads....but 'money supply and new orders' and still rising.... 5) O.C. Regoster, 10/10, edictorial, "Airwave Entitlements", mentioned what i mentioned herein a while ago, that, shckingly and very negatively for our country, the US. Govt. has been subsidising, and giving tremendous tax help to privately-owned, near-monoploy radio and TV companies....preventing freedom for others access to airwaves....this is continuing, and writer mentioned, NO one is protesting what he calls, "digital (which is a future thing, as you know) squatting rights"....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) John (on way too often) Bollinger, Tue. CNBC 12:30, has a supposed list of buys, with screens for being down without breaking recently, goofd fundamentals, etc. - but he shared only one of 111 supposed buys, which he says he'll share NEXT week (get it ? what crap), and that was our ABS.... 2) in another possibly ridiculous stab at Media coverage, got an unsolicited email from Michael (overrated) Murphy, titled, "It's Over....not just the second milllenium....not just the bull market....but technology as weknow it...." Huh ??? meaning exactly what, to what stocks ? he never siad, dig ? next....what a wastoid....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) following-up previously mentioned subject, from Ticker mag. oct. issue, titled, "Online trading horrors", pointed out, among other things, that, "they don't keep records of when their systems are down or experiencing delays, having a greater chance of not executing orders properly.....worse, they act cavalierly when they hurt their clients, only 2 or 12 willing to compensate clients for computer-caused problems....in general, online firms were remiss in informing clinets, never warning clients about potentially dangerous delays, glitches, etc., they open margin accts. without their clients being peoperly aware of how they work, etc." hmmmm....as iisaid a while ago....caveat emptor....
2) L.A.T. 10/4, headline, "CDC's battle of the bulge: escalating obesity in USA", cont. to show what I had predicted, especially with foreign people adopting bad USA eating/exercise habits, etc. They wrote that "obesity climbed by + 60 % during the 1990's, from 12.0 % to 18.9 %, in the USA, and those numbers are p[robably conservative...." 'nuff said, just a reminder, you have no excuse as to what you put into your system....there are more, better, drugs, foodstuffs, homeopathic stuff , and info. on health, that ever before....next.... 3) I should not have to tell you aboput more than this: USA. T> 10/9, headline about the Pres. debates junk: "it's not what's said, but Media spin on what's said", right ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
all puts SANM (100- to 77) for VQ % Gain....at least 1/2 pos. puts SLR (49+ to 41-) for Q % G....bal. puts BBH (199 to 170) for VVQ % G....all puts MXIM (80- to 64+) for VVQ % G....all puts BRCM (233 to 200-) for VVQ % G.... bal. stk.on.mgn. HOV (5+ to 7+) for % G....all puts VTSS (90 to 71) for VQ % G.... all, FLEX ( to 56), bal. puts PMCS ( to 153) for VVQ % G...., PCP ( to 35-) for VQ % G...., 1./2 pos. puts INRS (45+ to 38+) for VVVVQ % G....1/2 pos. calls ABS (20+ to 24) for VQ % G....all calls WIN (14- to 17-) for % G....1/2 pos. puts CYN (40+ to 32+) for VQ % G.... bal. puts ANEN (140 to 102) for Q % G....bal. puts HGSI. ( to ) for Q % G....bal. puts SLR (50 to 40+) for VQ % G....all puts GS ( to 95+) for VQ % G....bal. puts EXPD (50+ to 40) for Q % G....1/2 pos. puts NVDA (76 to 62++) for VQ % G....bal. puts SUPX (50 to 40) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. puts CHKP (180- to 122) for Q % G....
and/but, longs, HAS (10 to 12- to 10-), bal. UPM (24+ to 28 to 24+), GSTRF, FCX/A ?, WB, LOR, AEN, GBLX, CTT, CCE, UCR, CNET, ESR, DIR, SIEB, CPQ, AMI. ?, PER ?, ENTU, MRD, REP, PER, DPH no ?, GENE, FFA ?, BD, INCY, ATYT, PMTC ?, STI, 2nd pos. VNWK ....and 1st pos. VNWK (10 to 6) for big % L, and, puts, DVN, EOG, NBR, WAG, bal. LSS (52 to 44 to 52), for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio, except recently perhaps.... which, again, normally presages much better performance forward, yes ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
AVA @ 18+, 1/2 pos. FFIV @ 26+, FILE @ 17-, 1/2 pos. KLIC @ 12++, 1/2 pos. LU @ 21+, 1/2 pos. MSTR @ 19+, 1/2 pos. MU @ 35-ish, SRR @ 5.06, UIS @ 10-, VIXL @ 5 1/8,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4.06, AFWY @ 15 1/4, AII. @ 8, AM @ 16++, AMI. no ?, AN @ 5 3/4 ?, ASA @ 15, BGO @ 0.405, BGP @ 13-, BXS @ 14+, BYD @ 4 3/8, CAU 0.87, CHINA 7 1/4, CN @ 4, DCN @ 20++, DPH @ 14 ?, DROOY @ 15/16, EMA @ 8.06, ENN @ 6+, EWB @ 19, F. @ 24, FCX @ 8+, FCX/A no, FFA no ?, FMT @ 3 3/16, HDG @ 1.00, HLIT @ 11-, IHK @ 1.03, KRY @ 1.25, MRCH @ 9+, MRD no, NITE @ 25-, NTLI. @ 38+, OCN @ 5.47, ORB @ 7 3/4, RT @ 9 1/8, SEE @ 44+, STEI. @ 2-, SVU @ 15+, TMG @ 4.43, TSP @ 15+, USU @ 4 1/8...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, WTT, IT, FNT, ORCT, COST, GEMS, SSOL, NCI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
(new ones): GELX @ 46++, 1/2 pos. RKY @ 65+, 1/2 pos. SFY @ 41+ ?
1/2 pos. , SKYW @ 51-, KMI. @ 40, 1/2 pos. FS @ 78+, IMPH @ 65+, INRS @ 46+, PNK @ 22+, PMI. @ 69+, RTI. @ 14+,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') BEAS @ 79, CBL @ 25+, CHKP @ 162, COGN @ 42-, DV @ 39++, ENE @ 90-, GR @ 42+ ?, NBL @ 42-, PMI. @ 72, VRTS @ 141....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, NOVN, SFY, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here).... remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", PRGN, AMSE, LMG/A, SAPE, INTC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, HBC, ELN, NYFX, HDI, PHA, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs.... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
still giving you plenty more Winners: CAU 1.312 up 0.437, EMA 9.75 up 1.75, FILE 20.43 up 3.96, AFWY 17 5/8 up 2 5/8, AVA 21 1/8 up 3 3/8, VIXL 5.43 up 0.50, UIS 10 3/8 up 7/8, FCX 9 up 5/8, FFIV 28 7/8 up 3 3/8, MU 37 7/8 up 3, LU 23 3/4 up 2, MSTR 20 3/4 up 1 1/4, ASA 16.18 up 7/8, UIS 10.31 up 0.56, KLIC 13.69 up 1.13, WIN 17, K. 26, higher, since last time here....and, WIN, hit its 200 DMA....with ABS, hitting its 50 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
NITE 25.56, 27.68, DPH 14 7/8 up 1, VOD 34.1, 35.8, EWB 19, 20, EMA 9, DOW 25 5/8, CA 25 7/8, UNP 40.31, SEE 44.18, AFWY 15, 16.31, K. 24.68, F. 23 7/8, FCX 8 3/8, AM, CSCQ, OHI, USU, GY, NTLI. 43 5/8 up 5, CN, MLG, HA, DCN 20 3/4, ALI, BYD 4.31, ABS 22 3/4, PHC, OHI, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) MRCH 11.93 up 3.16, BGP 13.68 up 1.06, NOVL 8, FMT, HLIT, RAD, AMI, STEI, DPH, FFA, MRD 19, FCX/A 7 7/8, PMTC, MLG, AM, CN 4, DROOY 0.93, ASL, AU, AN, USU, KRY 1.18, BTO....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
lots more nice drops for you: PCMS -17 (S), CHKP -46, FLEX -12 (S), BRCM -19 (S), HGSI. -11 (S), EMC -8, BEAS -10, +6, -3, GS -9 (S), VTSS -7, +9, -7 (S), SEPR -7, EXAR -6, ANEN -6 (S), FS -5 1/2, INRS -5, SANM -4 1/2, MXIM -3 (S), DV -3, PMI. -4 1/2, CYN -3 1/2 (sow), ENE -3, GE -3, IMPH -4, SKYW -2, CHKP +8, -10, RKY -1 3/4, GR -1 3/8, PMCS -1 (S), IMPH -1, SLR -1 1/2 (S), COGN -1 3/8, EXPD -1 (sow), BXP -1, SUPX (S), PCP, PNK, FS, lower, since last NL here....and, SLR, SANM, BBH, BRCM, VTSS, also fell to/approached their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, MLS, BNP, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, AII, etc.)
,
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (BD, AAI, F, DCN, DPH ?, AFWY, CSX, CUM, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, ASA, BMG, FCX, FCX/A no, DROOY, PDG, BGO, CBJ, RT, AKS, etc.), Food-related (SVU, FFA, IHK, BLM, CPB, K, FFA, etc.), Banks (opbo), Farm/Land/Fert., and Precious Metals, Retails/Apparel/Merchandise, Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys, Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (EGRP, CIT, NITE)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? WCOM, WSTL, WCII, VOD, TSP, etc., as EVB's, etc.), and, Chem., Energy (TMG, TSO, HEC ?, etc.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
add, (in no particular order !): AMSE (super-risky), KLIC, SAPE ?, VIXL, INTC, EMA, DHC, ODP, ARJ, AVA, BKS ?, DGTC, FILE, PRGN, STSA, FFIV, WH, PB, MZ, DDR ?, (note, re-added previously given ones again, dig ?), to, G, CIT, CSX, CUM, N, LEA, PX, EMN, ROH, UIS, SKS, AKS, ATI, AIR, FCX/A, ORB, CRDS, DLTK, BTX ?, SLS, BAL, PT, MSTR, PLB, AIB, DRTN ?, CTXS, BXS, AIB ?, NTG no ?, BDX, ALI. ?, IFC, TEC, CA, AGS, to, MLS, BGP, ENTU, BOY, ETYS nah, UVA ?, AN, OBJX, FSW, RBC, JS ?, FBN, PHC, CKP, BOW, JBM, ATX, MDG, CCL, CTO, MAT, DL, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, MLS, JDN....
and 'busted' stocks with more Insider Buying: CERG, INAI, HCM, PDLPY ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, ELN, HBC, KMI, HDI, PMI, OAT, PHA, SZA, ALXN, UNT, WAG, MKL, PNK, RTI, ADVS, BELM, APWR, BEAS, CHCS, GELX, IMPH, IMGN, NEWP, SKYW, VRTS, OSIP, (again, note, as above, re-added more previously given names), to, SEPR, CGP, RKY, DV, AVE, BXP, D, EMC, ENE, HSY, MRX, COGN, MXIM, GLW, DNA, DGX, AXP, JBL, MLNM, NMSS, APWR, CHKP, BLDP, IWOV, MVSN, EXTR, SANM, CBL, APH, ADI, CYN, INRS, GE, PLXS, ARBA, AUDC, to,
(repeats) BRCM, NVLS, SSTI, MTG, BSC, LSCC, XLNX, PSEM, ANEN, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, from recent past NL's....some Semis declibned to their initial downside levels, already....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES