1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) obviously, the Aero/Def. stocks we were the first/only to have given out as Puts near highs, fell further....neat.... 2) I will still take credit for being the first to call stage 4 among extended Semi. stocks, check out chart of the "SOX", index, as previously suggested, H & S top now ? ....3) looks like "Mobile Homes" group is NOT ready yet, period.... 4) am watching them as you know, but it would seem that the Banks/Insur./Finance stocks still need more technical/pattern work....please re-read my "Exaustion V Bottoms" booklet... 5) likewise, many "homebuilding materials" stocks are making new lows, and also need more work.... no biggie, we were in none of them anyway....but all this does point to WAITING until the EVB or base forms, before forcing buys, yes ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from
the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) Mon., 11:15 am, CNBC, bullish story on Ford, said, "absolutely everybody who follows its stock, thinks it will make a steady climb....just how high will it go ?" ....2) following-up Tom Petruno, L.A. Times, "misappropriating" my "PSYCLE sm" concept somewhat, giving me no credit whatsoever, and treating me so badly, and not even calling me back: anyone know a good lawyer ? oh, and he keep rehashing that tired, "what if more and more global growth is bad for inflation ?" junk....does this guy even have formal economics or finance degree, or a long-term great track record of predictions ? He ends his 10/3 commentary, saying, "someone's going to be wrong..." Yeah, you are, for hurting your readers and by not helping me.... 3) the gang at CNBC were calling recent small % drops in major averages, "ugly", "getting slammed", "huge", etc., Wed., funny, I didn't know that "just small percentage drops in reality" warranted such overemotional, misleading overreaction, did you ? ....4) Thu. 8:30 am, CNBC's Ted David said, "I guess we'll have to shelve our special 'NASDAQ 3,000' show material...." See ? instead of helping viewers with good longs or shorts, they are just into ratings and sensationalizing, etc.... 5) CNBC's Bill Griffeth, Thu., 9:00 am, misleadingly and sensationalizingly-trying-to-create-a-story-like, said, "TYC stock has been dropping like a stone....down sharply again today..." WRONG ....see, even a drop from 106 to 85 is still an "under -20 % drop", and is certainly NOT "like a stone", right ? Stocks move 20 % quite often, S.T. He said that, Just to "pitch" his coming interview with their CEO, dig ? nasty....last, TYC has already fallen to its initial downside support, and below its 200 DMA, yes ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) Barron's, 10/11, "Dow pups trail..." In more proof that just buying "the dogs of the Dow" blindly, is NOT a good idea....on so many levels, as I have previously illuminated herein....Those stocks in the DJIA, actually returned only about 1/2 the return that all-30 stocks in the Dow returned, in 1999....again, I rest my case.... 2) without getting too deep, remember when I mentioned that many Gold producing companies had "sold forward/hedged" gold at higher prices ? Well, Barron's, 10/11, had someone from Newmont Mining, say, they "bought puts options at $ 270. an ounce on gold", and "paid for them with offsetting call options at $c 350. to $ 390. an ounce, from the year 2004 to 2009...." Anyway, they did not "sell forward", they bought Puts at 270 --- on a commodity which ROSE, instead of falling, to $ 325., get it ? Therefore, they lost a bundle on the near positions, get it ? Now, I assume, they could not have received much selling calls on $ 370. gold, when gold was only $ 270. at that time....Bottom line: they would have done better, just buying gold calls at $ 270., or gold stocks, from this NL, and, maybe, sold nearer-priced options....I hope this is clear, I just wanted to reiterate how "fundamentals" of companies have little of nothing to do with what their "stock prices" do....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) Salomon, S, B. just "began" coverage of "DISH" with a buy, at $ 107, target "only" $ 130 --- by end of year 2000, no less....of what good is that ? where have they been ? I know I have not been right putting this one once or twice for VQ, VS, losses, but, geez, can't they read a parabolic chart ? as I taught you, I bet they are doing some investment-banking work for them, and "had" to put put such a recommendation, dig ? ....2) follow-up on the ever-rationalizing his multi-year incorrectness-yet Media coverage, Jim Stack, in Tom Petruno commentary, 10/10, Stack, ever-bearish from Dow 5,800 years ago, says, "the market may never fall to the level he would view as 'fair'", and, "I know too much about market history, my biggest problem is that I am trapped by history...." Gee, Jim, ever heard of Puts ? I.G.R. ? ignoring "indexes" and buying lows for nice trades, independently of "the market" ? perhaps he will let me market to his subscribers, so someone can help them ? ....3) and Goldman, S. finally lowered their rating from bullish to neutral, on Rite Aid, after it had already fallen big-time.... 4) Investools, a big site on the web, promotes/markets some overrated NL writers (but they won't even check me out, don't get me started), and, the latest come-on I received, recommended, longside, JDSU, ATHM, QLGC, HLIT, VOX, way up here....3 are on my puttable list, yes ? as usual....and, I gave out VOX, for real $ clients, two years ago, in itys "PSYCLE sm" base, around $ 4., see it ? view a 5-year chart on VOX....anyway, they only like it now, at $ 20-, dig ? the pattern never changes.... 5) Barron's, 10/11, interviewed money mgr. Anthony Weber of some M. Fund group I never heard of (I wonder how they chose him, but I digress), and his favorite longs up here are: OCLI, TERN, CTYC, THDO....and, his "shorts" are: AOL, ELNK, NDB, EGRP, KO, G....Interesting, since, I gave my people THDO near its lows, now up, and CYTC, TERN, OCLI, have been on my recent puttables list, dig ? As to the Internet stocks he hates, ELNK, NDB, EGRP, are on our potential longs list, yes ? And, of course, everyone hates KO and G now, but they all loved them much higher, right ? The pattern never changes....Let's see how these diametrically opposed positions trun out....
e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1)
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best
individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
1/2 pos. puts NLTI. (100+ to 72+) for Q 111% Gain....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PWN (7+ to 11+) for 100% Gain....bal. calls THC (16+ to 20+) for VQ 90% G....puts VNWK (43- to 32) for Q 111% G....calls ONSL (14+ to 20-) for VVQ 100% G....bal. calls ASO (21+ to 25-) for Q % G....stock CAU (0.19 to 0.46) for 125% G....1/2 pos. puts AHAA (56+ to 45) for 100% G....
and/but, longs, CHY, "the T-Bond", SYNX ?, NITE, IMH ?, FCH ?, MGA ?, MLG, CHB, MT ?, and, puts, JNPR, SDLI., SONC, for more, quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....still been too many of them lately....rare....wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(new ones)MM @ 10 1/8, SOC @ 5+, STE @ 12+, USL @ 6++,
"Repeats": (note, some new ones) ATC @ 1 3/16, BWL/A @ 7-, CASY @ 13-, CPQ @ 22-, CTK @ 8-, EAR @ 4 9/16, HCM @ 3 15/16, HMA @ 7+, HMY @ 4 9/16, IFMX @ 7.06, IHK @ 6-, JBOH @ 7 3/4, MSN @ 9/16, SEV @ 2 11/16, SYNX @ 2.06 ?, TMO @ 13+, TSC @ 4.06, TXB @ 3 11/16, VBAC @ 1 3/16, WTT @ 1 3/4....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still 'Not that great' a list, as I have been intimating recently)
understanding that very little looks great here, relatively speaking only, JBOH, STE, HMA, look "best", with close stops....and, Longer-term, the cheapie Golds, WTT, SOC, MSN, etc.
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have
subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may
have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE
viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, CBG, BYX, SCS, MO, GPI, GMT, ONX, PER, RE, RGBK, CCR, --- Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) ADI. @ 58-, ARBA @ 186+, AVX @ 39+, BRCD @ 238+, CTS @ 59++, DOV @ 41+, DTPI. @ 48, ESS @ 34-, FCX @ 18-, GGG @ 33+, ICGE @ 109, INSS @ 55+, IRF @ 17-, ITW @ 80, LGTO @ 50-, NOPT @ 40-, OMPT @ 65+, PMK @ 28+, RCL @ 48-, SLR @ 79+, TQNT @ 70+, UVN @ 86+, VIGN @ 107+,
note, longer Puts list, get it ? all were in recent NL's section (6)....no sweat....you had plenty of opportunity to catch them....just FYI, as of this morning, ZBRA, FCX, GGG, UVN, POG, PVY, seem(ed) closest to highs still....
"Repeats": ADTN @ 40, EQT @ 38+, HAE @ , JCI. @ 70+, MXIM @ 72+, POG @ 9-, POWI. @ 77+, PVY @ 29+, SANM @ 81+, SPW @ 92+, TEF @ 51-, TNL @ 36++, ZBRA @ 50-....as I said, these have been decent lists, view their patterns....
and/but, took, LBRT, ORCL, CPN, NVLS, KLAC, ALGX, LTXX, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", HLX, LNCR, USL, FTL, HB, MIR, HZP, OMI, FC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ETEK, CNXT, AGN, ITN, HON, MMM, XLNX, MCRL, VIA/B, TYC, ERTS, ARA, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to miss those....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones I miss herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
MM 11 3/8 up 1 1/2, SDH 18 3/4 up 1 3/8, TMCS 25 7/8 up 1 7/8, HMA 7 5/8 up 7/16, ONSL 20 3/8 up 1 (S), HMT, PMC, higher, since last time here....and, GSR 2 up 1/4 (S), and, THC, hit its 200 DMA (S)....
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: TXB 4 1/4 up 5/8, GDC 3 1/4 up 3/8, CPQ 23 1/4 up 1 3/4, then 22-, EGRP 27 up 2 1/2, TBFC 26 1/2 up 2, RAH 17 7/8 up 3/4, TG 23 1/8 up 1, MWHS 12 3/4, NTBK -1, AMTD +1 1/4, MT, MGA, SEEK, TBP, SDH, SSC, JBOH, TSC, NWK, KRY, PMC, TCA, HSIC, CCC 7, LDW, ALB 18 5/8 up 3/4, HEB, HOC, TPN, BWL/A, APFC, FCH, CKP, IFMX, OJ, NPK, MCL 9, TSC, BCP, CDE, TE, SYNX, CASY, ESOL, RLC, TPS, NHC, MSN, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....remember, many "Golds" are already having normal stage 2 pullbacks, right ?
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) STK 15 dn 4 (sos), HEB, SSC, SYNX, HSIC, MGA, RE, FCH, IHK, CPQ, TE, IFMX, APFC, CCC, LWN, SEV, LDW, HOC, HCM, IMH, CHB, MGA, TPS, HIV, MSN, TG....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
ARBA -26 1/2, ICGE -16 1/2, BRCD -25, AHAA -10 1/2 (sow), ADI. -8, POWI. -9, NTLI. -7, SPW -7, VIGN -6, TQNT -6, LGTO -6, OMPT -5, SLR -5, AVX -4, ITW -5 1/2, MXIM -4, DTPI. -3, TERN -4, DOV -4, ATML -3 1/2, ADI. -3, NOPT -3 1/2,
more: UVN -2 1/2, JCI. -2 1/4, CYTC -2, PMK -2, RCL -2 1/4, IRF -1 3/4, INSS -1 1/2, CTS -1 1/2, TQNT +2, -3, DGX -1, CCL -1, ACV -1, CNG, GGG, EQT, PIOS, VNWK -3 (S), SU -1, PKY, POG, ESS, D., lower, still, since last NL here....while, NTLI., TYC, approaching their 200 DMA, and, RTN 23 dn 20 wow, ANF 26 dn 8, CAH 47-, ACK 40, OWC 21+, down even more, neat....also, see, TYC, 86 dn 19 after all....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
once again, remember, to form a "top" over time, a stock most often must jockey around, right ? this takes days and even weeks, as taught in my
"Downside" booklet, re-read it please....that's one reason it helps to view these types of "bounces" in this section at times....
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ?
You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between
NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns !
Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at
all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously
formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns
from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Health-relateds (HEB, HMA, TXB, NHC, EAR, TCA, NHP, STE)
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, DAY, KRY, on big pullbacks only, right ?)
Foods (UFD.A, VBAC),
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Internet-and-Online Broker-ralated (scary, use close stops) TBFC, AGE, JBOH, AMTD, and more below, on pullbacks only, etc.
Online E-tailers: BAMM, TMCS, etc.
emerging groups ?: ading, "Waste", to, "Medical/Hospital/Health", "Athletics/Shoes", and, Foods ?, but Financials need more work....
and/but, some busted REIT's, like, HMT, FCH ?, PRT, WIR ?, MT ?, for possible income/dividends, plus price upside....this may jive with the depressed health/REIT/hospital/HMO stocks, like, VTR, LWN, NHP, etc., we are watching (which have no dividends, of course) ?
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for
your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some"
of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once....
since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they
pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding,
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, CHB, AOC, DME, IM, MM, AFC, ABK, TEN, TAP, XRX, EX, FTL, CVD, PZN, USL, and, CMA, DDS, HB, LYO, TAP, AMTD, WDC, MGA, RSG, SNV, HCP, EEE, USL, BND, HLX, TSN, (note, more "big names" and "financials"), to,
"repeats": CBG, FLS, JOB, SEV, MWHS, PIR, BWL/A, TCA, TMO, IMG, TG, RTI, MGL, HMY, SYNX, FC, HWD, RAH, HLX, ESOL, CKP, UNA, LWN, OMM, EAR, TKN, NTN, HIV, SEV, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, DMI, JM, CASY, GDC, GRERF, HEC, HNV, MSN, SAMC, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real
mish-mosh: adding, add, SOC, BL, MMG, TZA, HIB, LTR, to, AN, AMTD, BDX, AGE, ALB, AW, UNA, CPU, WIR, MSPG, SIEB, PCCC, BXM, SDH, CGI, CTX, CNB, MGL, CTK, STE, FWC, NHC, FNL, ONX, HLX, NTBK, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work ....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....
They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn
the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
Biotech, Pharm., Drug, Health, Medical: HAE, IDPH, ZOLL, DGX, etc.
other "Techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below here....
**** others, and new ones: many more, added, MCRL, to, YHOO, CHKP, CLFY, CTXS, GOTO, INTI, DRTE, SMTC, XLNX, TQNT, AGN, AVX, CTS, FCX, IRF, MMM, ITW, IMN, CTV, RCL, VIA/B, INTI, SPP, to, AA, IPI, BRCD, TERN, ARA, MGG, DOV, VIGN, CNG, DGX, HOMS, INKT, LLTC, MXIM, PESC, SAWS, CYTC, CCL, CXY, IVX, LD, LSI, MMM, PHG, QLGC, SDLI, TSI, VSEA, ARBA, ANTC, CLRN, JBL, SLR, SONC, ZBRA, ARC, DYN, WLM, MWD, SPW, TAM, INSS, MSFT, SANM, DOX, TLAB, AHAA, DST, ADVS, ECP, CDI, CLS, BC, VISX, VTSS, FDS, PEB, EXDS, SNPS, ACS, GE, KWP, PB, RNWK, SFX, ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, BVF, EL, PKS, from recent past NL's,
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Energy, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....of course, many issues are already down now, so fewer "still near their highs", right ?
but, removed most "Publishing" stocks from potential "put" lists, just FYI....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: given recent action and ideas above, note: in a similar manner how/why we stayed in some Puttables having minor new highs, near their highs, we aregoing to continue to watch some Depresseds/EVB's having minor new lows, here, because we are seeing so many EVB's recently, in general, meaning, "the market" itself will be coming into more of a bottom period soon, dig ? The "fakeout minor breaks" which have occured all along, for years now, point to the importance of stepping back, and viewing 1-and-2-year past charts before acting ....and to the value of stops, and proper diversification, so that no "one" trade can hurt you, in any case....note the unusually HUGE insider buying in depressed "HRC", wow, hopefully it will bottom EVB soon....Also, for a learning exercise, check the longer-term, 2-year charts of, WTT, MSN, SOC, and the one-year charts, of, GRERF, DAY, VGZ, BE, to "see" the longer-term pattern....get it ?
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....