Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
issue # 38, dated: 9:30 am, P.S.T., Thursday, Oct. 15, 1998

**** If you are a "newer" subscriber, please read ALL of the "wordy" parts of the NL, once or twice, anyway....If you are an "old" subscriber, of course, just feel free to SKIP, to the NL sections you wish to glean info. from, dig ? (Save all my Cumulative letters, for future reference/ educational learning/help)....each NL tends to run about 10-11 pages, printed out ....much valuable info. in one place, try to read my Entire letters. Note, I have made this NL somewhat shorter....big deal....

Of course, if you are not "already long" those stock/puts positions/ideas listed, you may feel like ignoring some parts of the sections below--- feel free to do so--- but it is much better if you take the time to check ALL ideas shared herein....you can always also refer back to "the Guide" (green) and other Booklets, for more info./details....The process will become second nature to you quickly: buying longs, and buying puts, with close stops, etc. Most, from Section (3).... Some sharp people are spending 2-4 hours a week with my NL's, others just 30-45 minutes a week....whatever helps the most people, the most, I try to offer something of value, for every type of need. I have all types of vallued subscribers, dig ? I want to provide for them all.... 'nuff said.

It is assumed you have read the "Significant Disclaimers" paragraph, under the logo on my main webpage...I wish I could infer future good performance will match past, but each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for your understanding. It is also assumed you "view" actual charts of issues considering trading in, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and that you are therefore aware of the recent highs or lows prices for putside/longside stops.

FIRST, from Section (3) --- and also, from in sections (6) and (7) when those set up properly, always cutting losses when stocks break their patterns, etc. Then, read Section (2) for "How (not) to use Media/Finl. Ind. Commentary, from a Psycle p.o.v."....Plus, after reading a few NL's, you will already be aware of most stocks from the recent past, and, therefore, have the choice of not/watching them again, if you are not/are looking to trade those stocks, right ? This whole process should be labor of enjoyable fulfillment and learning, and not a chore, dig ? I just give you a lot more for your money, whether you use it or not.... Again, If you are already knowledgeable about all "PSYCLE sm" tenets, and/or just want the most current "actionable" stocks, FIRST, go right to Section (3)....then, to see longer lists, and potential stocks, go to sections (6) and (7)....of course, if you want to get the most, for the least, read everything....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
My newsletter (NL), and Educational services, are a "Continuation" of previously recommended stocks/ideas, to show you many Recently/Past suggested ideas, which I shared with my L.T. followers, so that YOU can then also view their recent/past 1-year/2-year charts, to "see" what we are trying to accomplish here, and to further help you Learn the Patterns....All my NL's are Cumulative, and can/should be saved and reviewed, especially the "Commentaries" areas, Section (2), to glean the most value from my output, over time, as "lessons" and "proof". IMPORTANT: I assume all my valued subscribers have read all my past NL's, and, all my "Booklets/essays".

**** IMPORTANT **** On my T.V. appearance, Wed., Oct. 7th, I specifically said, (quote) "We are EXTREMELY, darn close to a bottom" (end quote). The last 2 NL's are the most Bullish NL, since I began this NL....actually, the first truly Bullish ones, in quite a while....Remember, I first got more than a little Bearish, back in March.... but--- I have NO "special expectations"....KNOW THIS: when/if my Long-side EVB stocks DO rise, their first upside targets are likely to be 1/3 to 1/2-way back up, towards their previous resistance levels....do NOT expect the moon, but DO buy some things with close stops, as always, diversify among at least a few industry groups. But NO "scenarios", NO "Index targets", we do NOT care what "the Dow does". My goodness, you'd think more people would have learned how important that way of thought has been.

*** MARKET OVERVIEW: To quickly Review: after giving you over 110+ more, correctly timed "Puts", near their July Tops, herein for you--- on 8/31 and 9/1, then again on 10/7 and 10/8, we got normal, late stage 7/early stage 1, "baby/ bathwater" S.T. bottoms action, etc., meaning that many stocks reached their downside targets, and also signalling that one must have BOUGHT "something" LONG then/since, "after/into" such "fear"....I cannot remember when the ratio of "PSYCLE sm" EVB's, to Puttables, was as high as it had been, 9/1, V.S.T. (very short-term)....Then, we got similar (even better) "throw in the towel/scared/ turned-off/bottom" action, on 10/8....I have rarely seen so many EVB's as late last week !!! Remember, we are NOT ever trying to predict any "Indexes" themselves--- we just take advantage of normal, usual, "PSYCLE sm" patterns in Individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, right ? with NO emotion, and NO "scenarios/ stories/ linkages" (re-read that Booklet). And, if you were, again, "afraid" to Buy some things Long very recently, with close stops, please re-read my "Mastering Psychology" booklet as well....

*** As I said earlier, any lows made in October, were/are likely to be "it" for a while, on the downside, if you catch my message....so, YOU MUST BUY LONG, SOMETHING HERE....As with the Put-side recently, we are going to give our depresseds some extra "leeway", with "stops", in that, as I teach, when we get "baby/bathwater" action, some depresseds may "break just a little" under the throw-away pressure (like last week), without becoming cut-loss sales yet....But also Note how many of our longs did NOT Break, anyway....But--- as of Thu. Oct. 8, it was/is, again, too late to "begin" to buy most any Puttables....In fact, Many stocks have exhausted their downside movements, meaning, you gotta start to look more to the Long-side again, here, with close stops, diversifying, etc.

* also LEARN THIS: Most recently, while we caught a ton of Puts for you recently, and more EVB's Long here for you, and though we may "miss" some "EVB's" here, and we did cut many VQ, VS losses, remember that, often, in market "mini-crashes", the specialists on the floor must "take out the lows", to "shake out" the last "scared holders", by breaking many EVB stocks, even below recent lows, and getting even good traders negative/scared at those times, dig ? As a result, a) we will often get S.T. price rises into a "vacuum" for a few days (many already occured, last time, yes ?), and should happen again, from this past Fri. ....b) then some normal backing-and-filling pullbacks, occuring now.... c) often, it is better, in the bigger "Perspective" (read my Booklet on that, with "Scenarios") to "hang in there" and/or Buy EVB's which have NOT broken their patterns, Long, rather than capitulate, emotionally, at times like the 9/1 lows, and/or on 10/8....We may miss some, but we will still catch plenty, Long, at these kinds of times....and, d) of course, you MUST have had, and get better with, Puts, as you can see, for the next time (down the road).

"PSYCLE sm" PSY-chological tip: normally, the moments one feels the most upset, negative, scared, ready-to-quit, or to give up, will very often turn out to have been, on hindsight, the lowest risk/highest upside S.T. Long Buy times.

**** WE have a market of EVB's and double-bottoms....Act on them....As I suggested, current long-side patterns would be/are similar to those AFTER the 1987 crash, but on a smaller scale, so far....get it ? With "the 95 %" remaining negative, scared, confused, turned-off, or refusing to acknowledge the damage done recently, etc., WE were strong enough to have bought some Puts, earlier, and some EVB's, here, with close stops, while cutting losses of small consequence, with NO emotion. We also see more proof why I disdain most Mutual Funds, because, in declines, you lose money anyway, and have no idea what the managers are doing, and you have no control. My "PSYCLE sm" solves that for U.

"PSYCLE sm" PSY-chological tip: instead of becoming emotional/upset that you occasionally, might have "missed" some issues, at times, and/or illogically fearful near recent lows, VIEW the chart patterns, to LEARN, so the next several times, you will NOT miss similarly positioned stocks, Puts, and Longs, yes ?

Important: Remember, I am pretty Comprehensive, herein....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....most other NL's leave you hanging....There are 3 (three) kinds of stocks listed herein: a) Stocks that can be ACTED on, here and now, if right near given prices, b) Stocks which, if they get back to the price where they were when originally suggested, remain/ become tradeable again, and, c) Stocks which "seem to be setting up as potential trades, possibly soon", and might also illustrate Industry Groups potentially shaping up, and/or as Educational ideas, all for YOUR benefit....Try to "view" the past 1-year-back- at-least charts of all ideas, for best learning of patterns ....all ideas are followed up till "sold" or "removed", for your benefit. Do try to find charts which also have 200 DMA 's on them, physically, or through your computer, or on the web. Call me if you need some places to get free charts.... Learn the chart patterns, then add our "sentiment/psychological" patterns, and voila....


Please appreciate, how much time/effort I put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into every single NL....Some times there will be fewer ideas, sometimes, more....which will tell you something about "the market" overall, yes ? Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3) each NL. Note, I am putting more "learning/feeling" items in NL's when pertinent/helpful to YOU.

Remember, even my EVB's are not "one-day bottoms"....EVB's can take days/weeks to form, and, as long as those issues do not form new Lows, those stocks remain aok....many EVB's may also form "W" bottoms ahead, read section (6) below....do NOT "worry/overemotionalize/extrapolate any "most recent past" performance forward forever, PSY-chologically", ever, because you will likely miss the next bunch of Gainers, dig ? Just because the "last few" may not have worked, does NOT mean "the next few" will not....in historical FACT, the vast majority of "PSYCLE sm" ideas HAVE indeed worked, in all market conditions....it is one's inner "psyche expectations" which are sometimes too anxious, too S.T., or too demanding....

So, "pick your potion(s)," FIRST, from Section (3) ---then from sections (6) and (7), long and/or Put/short side, for Cash, or on Margin, or only L.T., in-the-money options where suitable, for your different accounts/needs. If you have never done "Puts", the March to Sept. period has been the time to Learn how to do so, using my "booklet" on How to Properly Exploit Puts, benefitting you for the rest of your trading/investing life, for when/the next intermediate S.T. tops occur, which may next exist after the next decent rallies after this past decline ....Now, to the Good Stuff:

**** As of last Thu. 8th, as I said, I became probably more Bullish than I have been in a Long time (pun intended)....People who thought they could "begin" to get some Puts, are way too late, as I said several days ago, here....Note how many new EVB's and Buys I added here....Find those that are still right near suggested "buy" prices from section (3) (and/or in section (6)) below....As I said/predicted, it just seems so much like after the 1987 crash....but, again, we have NO "scenarios", and NO "prejudgements". We do NOT "expect the DJIA to hit whatever level", as the mediocre 95 % do....we do NOT care about Indexes very much ! We only care about what OUR specific stocks/I.G's are doing....

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

*** YOU MUST BUY some things LONG here, w/close stops.

a) Important Industry Group Notes: note Q, big % Gains, Long, in some of our Asian issues, view their charts to learn the patterns....as usual, we were first/ only to catch that I.G. Some Extended Drugs/Medicals remain potentially Puttable ....oh, and as I say in the "I.G.R." Booklet, it is normal, for one to be Long, and Puts, in different stocks, in the same I.G. NO pre-judgements. Some Oil Services still double-bottomy....But, most of the Gaming/Hotel stocks I put on maybe list, are too soon, so removing some for now....And, I am still the first/ only to see an exploitable "hook top" developing in extended Utilities ?

b) "PSYCLE sm" tip: I agree with Barron's, 10/5, Eric Savitz column, in that, I do think we're going to see more "takeovers" of some depressed Techs up ahead ....I have some names in mind, but, as you know, we NEVER buy speculations based solely on potential takeover rumors....but, several of these have EVB's anyway, so, here's "our" L.T. "maybe" list....I hesitate to include these, because too many of you might run out and just blindly buy these at any price just because they "might be eventual potential t/o's maybe", please do NOT....do your technical /fundamental research....in no particluar order, with special caveats, near recent lows ONLY, w/stops below: ASMLF, CMOS, IPEC, HELX, and, on better formations, maybe SVGI., ATMI., ASTX, at some point ? we shall see....eh.

c) Barron's, 10/5 and 10/12 issues: in their options commentary, titled, "Be Very Afraid....which may be Bullish, but Short-term Only": Reiterated that their "CBOE options volatility index" had risen big-time from the July lows, hinting at real S.T. very high/Bullish readings.....But this supposed indicator already also had BEEN high/bullish for several weeks, even BEFORE the most recent mini-crash... And, also, that its "Put/Call Ratio", a sometimes contrary sentiment indicator, had also reached all-time high (and therefore Bullish, contrary) levels near the very recent lows, last week, "the highest readings of the 1990's"....They said their recent mini-crash indicators readings were on a par with those of 1929 and 1987....But then, the commentary went on to say, after a sharp S.T. rally, from early Oct., to alleviate these overdone indicator readings, we'd head lower again, maybe like 1932....Conclusion: as I point out at length in my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets, you see again why "PSYCLE sm" traders do NOT blindly let such contradictory and difficult-to-read indicators into the decision-making part of our brain....We gave you the tops, from July, and the S.T. bottom, last week, without any "indicators", right ?

d) Gerry Favors, the most interviewed NL writer on CNBC who called for the recent decline, is still bearish, allowing for bounces....we shall see....

e) more incorrect/improper/unexpected stock moves, on "assumed" fundamentals /announcements (try to view their charts to learn): 1) EK, falls 10 points, though their eps beat estimates....see the series of lower highs in its previously Extended chart ? ....2) Apple, announcing 1st profits in a long time, with its new computer, Falls 3, to 37, as I suggested a probable "PSYCLE sm" top, around 40, in a recent past NL here.... 3) KNT, reported a big Loss, yet its stock, which I gave you here to buy in its EVB, rises 40 %.... 4) CATP, announced sales +30%, and eps + 40 %, yet its stock, which I gave you here near its top as a Put, over $ 50., fell further, to below 15. And you still want to act, based on obvious "news" ? ....5) Chrysler Falls from $ 60, where I gave it to you here as a Put, to $ 36, quickly, then, 10/12, announces record earnings, up 55 %, for that quarter.... 6) a CNBC reporter, 10/15, 10:30 am, announced "Unisys is enjoying much improved results....announced much higher earnings, on improved sales....on that news (he paused, puzzled, as usual) UIS stock, is Down a dollar, to 23 and change ?"

f) front page, O.C. Register, 10/13:"Orange County Housing Market Cools Down as Summer's Bidding Wars Subside": The proof keeps coming....showed "median sales prices for resale single-family homes, DOWN -1.3 % in Sept., from Aug., and -4.0 % below July's high"....and, "there are many anecdotal stories of price Reductions, which sellers weren't wrestling with just 2 or 3 months ago...." Gee, exactly when was I the first/only to call the TOP in R.E., even nationwide, in many places ? 2 1/2 months ago....I rest my case....also, L.A. Times, 10/13: "Houysing market takes a breather.....sales Inventory inching Up...." They also showed 10-year price Charts, of prices, homes sold, and, illustrated nice depressed "PSYCLE sm" bases (I also predicted the bottom, Jan. '97, in writing), from 1994 to 1997, then normal rises thereafter....LEARN the "PSYCLE's sm" 7 stages signals, and well, you know the rest....

Comments within these articles fit "PSYCLE sm" stage 2, or stage 4 perfectly: "Orange County supply/inventory up 50 % from July....the higher the avg. salke prices, the more severe the (probable) reduction in sales....buyers of luxury homes hesitating due to recent stock market drops...." (end quotes) Then, these stage 2 and 4 rationalizations (read my Booklets on "Psychology", and "Scenarios") : "despite a growing list of economic worries worldwide, few economists, analysts, or R.E. experts predict a decline in Housing values over the next year....last week's spike in I.R.'s won't hurt the market much....it's unlikely I.R.'s will rise much more anyway...." (end quotes) If I have to explain where all these comments fit, in "PSYCLE sm" future-price-prediction stages, then you need to re-read all 7 Booklets immediately. This method of analysis is beautiful some times, yes ?

g) Am I the only person noticing an alarming trend/increase, in "quickie, loud, sound-bite grabbers/come-ons" on CNBC now, which sound exactly like those used in those obnoxious, quickie commercials for scandalous talk and "hard copy" exploitive/shock TV shows ? Not a good sign....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
 (always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's) and (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period....VQ = very quick; i.e., less than 3-4 weeks holding period) also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the estimated % percentage Gains I show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where available/suitable, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm" tenets), and also try to view their 1-year-past price charts, to see the patterns, and where/when they were Hypothetically, originally "bought", all longs near lows, all puts near highs).

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (price changes from where/when originally recommended shown):
 a few more Q, Large % Puts Gains (and some Long-side Gains !): 1/2 pos. calls PLL (20+ to 25) for 200% Gain....bal. pos. stk.on.mgn. HNP (6+ to 13) for Q 200% Gain....bal. puts IDXX (25- to 19-) for VQ 85 % Gain.... bal. pos. calls PKX (12- to 17-) for VQ 125% G....calls WY (40- to 50-) for VQ 150% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. PAP (5 1/4 to 7 3/4) for VQ 75% G....and, longs, ALN, ORG, and, puts, JNJ, CTL, for VQ, very small losses....yes, there have been too many Q, small longside losses, but they should have been more than balanced, by many of Q, large Puts Gains, recently, yes ? My assumption, is that one has had a few very profitable Puts Gains, and also, a few Q, small losses, on the Long-side, lately. Plus, some new Long-side winners again....One should now have good cash positions with which to begin dipping toes into Long-side Buys again down here....and, from here, likely a bunch more Long-side Gains ahead ?

so, I hope you had at least "some" of my many successful Puts recently--- because there are likely to be almost NO new Puts, for a while.... Please View the charts of Hypothetically "sold" issues, in Section (3) and Section (5), to learn the patterns forever. Also note how many Puttables came down in Two stages....Obviously, also had some Q,S losses in Long-siders here (about 40 in recent weeks), and, also, some Long-side Gainers given you, especially in Golds. A proper portfolio should have had a few Q, small cut losses long-side, AND also at least a few big % Gains in some Puts, lately....And, new Long buys again very recently....And, many depressed longs which broke their support a little recently, may well bounce back up towards where they broke down below, anyway, S.T., allowing another opportunity to get out of those, to cut losses, as taught.

note: As I said herein, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", and/or form double-bottom "W" formations ahead, vs. recently formed EVB's....but, as always, (further) breakdowns below most recent lows/support, are not argued with. Again, you can always also go back and view the 1-year-past charts, of the many previously "Hypothetically completed" trades, and this also illustrates why one must Diversify, buying at least a Few suggested ideas, and at least "some" Puts, at amost All times, right ? We are in this for the long haul....my approach keeps you in the game, for when those big Gainers occur for us....we want to "just get close(r)", with no emotion, and more confidence.

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right near these prices only:
(either for cash, especially in pensions, and/or on margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/ available, always diversifying, always with close stops below/above recent lows/highs): (note: If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables", long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price.... and, a " + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-, means, 55 5/8 to 56, dig ?)....again, the idea is to just get "real close" to my listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....


**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, many more/new names here):
(refer to last time list here; these are nopt already up) SAVLY @ 8+, LIND @ 8 3/4, CREAF @ 9+, HOC @ 15, SMTK @ 6, QDEK @ 3/8, DJT @ 3.06, JBAK @ 3 3/4, KNT @ 8 5/8, ADPT @ 9 1/4, XYLN @ 10++, SHG @ 5.06, OWN @ 4 3/8, NLC @ 28, PIR @ 6+, GGC @ 15, SLF @ 3 7/16, MKG @ 20+, FDC @ 21-, RBK @ 13, WMO @ 13, FTL @ 13-, FTR @ 13-, IRF @ 4 3/8, BDT @ 5+, DBRSY @ 12+, RDC @ 9+, ASHW @ 5 3/4, ELY @ 10.06, ALTR @ 29+, AZC @ 9/16, CSE @ 18-, CCH @ 5/16, VSNR @ 3/4, BS @ 7 1/2, IMGN @ 1 3/16, LTV @ 5 7/16, IFMX @ 3 7/8, CRUS @ 5 7/8, PDS @ 11-, LSS @ 10 1/2, STJ @ 20+, RJF @ 17+, LDW @ 9-, NR @ 6 1/4, TK @ 18, VGZ @ 3/16....most are EVB's....there is still something for everyone here...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....and a couple are "whipsaws" re-added....obviously, almost ANYTHING one buys/bought near Thursday's/ Friday's lows, with close stops, should be o.k., given character of "the market's" EVB's....

LEARN THIS: when, in the past, I had been seeing fewer "quality" higher-priced stocks as depressed buy patterns, that should have told you something about "the market", back in June....but we have been adding more longs, After the recent mini-crash, dig ? This just makes sense....Please try NOT to read, nor "emote", about news stories about worldwide financial/economic/ political events....

** Important: took, CBTSY, EVV, NBL, BHI., HLT --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows.... also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/ account/objective", including some real cheapies, and some $ 5-10. stocks, and some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.

Important: unless issues are listed specifically above, here in Section (3) in a NL, they may NOT be buys right here....remember, a valuable part of the "process", is that we have "actionable right near here now" stocks (Section (3)), and also, "watching for hopefully becoming ready to buy near lows in their depressed patterns soon" stocks (section (6))....Section (3) is for Now -- Section (6) and (7) are for soon/later and learning....be sure to read the "Guide", the "BDG/EVB essay" and the "Downside" booklet (and all 6 booklets) offered....each/all very inexpensive, yet extremely valuable for learning timing/ patterns ...I try to make this easy for you. But, always start, with Section (3), here, first.

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops: SCG @ 36+, FPL @ 71, NEG @ 49+, NI. @ 33-, ss LLL @ 39+ ....again, at this stage, we only buy Puts on extended potentially toppy issues which have Not Yet fallen, only near their highs, right ? NOT the ones which are "already down a bunch"....Hence, almost NO puts, now....

As I said last week, given recent declines, it became too "late" to "begin" buying puts, and/but, took, none, off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a suggested stock will break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed double-bottom/EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually have Viewed it's recent chart, BEFORE you consider buying any/those issues as Longs or Puts, and you will see/know this, and therefore NOT buy that particular stock....this takes just 10 seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns.

....and/but, we just Missed, TTILF, SPNSF, CBRL, ADPT, DURA, BKB, FWC, RYC, ETN, BAP, RON, ALT, UFI., SII., TEI., PH, MZ, TV, as Longs and/or found here near very recent "EVB" lows among stocks recently given you herein (also view last lists given you here), and, MEDI., SRE, other "bells", as Puts, near recent highs....I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "see" and LEARN the patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the puts/longs here which we just "missed", also tells us, whether the market is providing more bottoms/ tops, at that time, right ? For instance, we will "miss" some EVB's here....So this also helps us know the nature of the market at any given time....that's why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for the future.

As I have been saying for weeks, it may still continue semi-rough for a while yet, in many long-side issues....While the Media "worries" about "earnings" impacts of various crises, the STOCKS of the companies involved will likely Bottom, and rise, even as "lower financials" are announced, into fear, once they bottom (which, has becvome MUCH closer recently). And, as we have already seen, twice, since March, and July, stocks of "growing fast" companies, will still FALL, at times, when they form "PSYCLE sm" tops, even into higher "earnings". And, a few, small, cut losses along the way, will not hurt us much, regardless. By buying "some "PSYCLE sm" long-side stocks" down here, with close stops, we should make some money regardless, soon, again, yes ?


 All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check them briefly, to see if any YOU own, are listed....if you do not own any of them, then just concentrate on Sections (3), then (6) and (7) below.

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning, and still remaining long, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy here, up already, acting O.K., so stick around:
plenty of Gains again for you: IRF 5 7/8 up 1 5/8, KNT 12 1/4 up 3 7/8, XYTLN 13 3/8 up 3, CZM 19 1/2 up 3 3/4, SAVLY 9 5/8 up 1 5/8, XYLN 12 3/8 up 1 7/8, SGE 13 3/4 up 2, OWN 5 up 3/4, BDT 6 up 1, SMTK 6 3/4 up 3/4, CRUS 6 5/8 up 3/4, GILD 25 1/4 up 4 5/8, TLZ 7- up 5/8, WH 19 1/2 up 2 1/4, LIPO 6 1/2 up 5/8, SLF 3 3/4 up 3/8, WWW 11 up 1, FTL 14 1/4 up 1 1/2, VTR 11+ up 1, LSS 11 3/8 up 1, NMGC 12 1/2 up 1 1/4, DEX 27 1/2 up 2, WMO 14 up 1, FTR 14 1/2 up 1, LDW 9 1/2 up 3/4, CREAF 10 1/2 up 1 1/4, HUM 16- up 1, BEN 32 1/2 up 2 3/8, IDPH 24+ up 1 1/4, MKG 22 3/4 up 1 1/8, PLL 25 1/4 up 1, NSC 30 1/4 up 1 1/4, ALTR 37 1/2 up 1 3/4, EMN 55- up 2 1/4, RNB 41 up 1, WY 50 1/2 up 1 (S), LIND 9 3/8, RLM 57 1/4, FDC 21 5/8, CSE 20 3/8, LIZ 28 5/8, CCMC 9-, RDRT 8 1/4, LZ 27 1/2, DBRSY 14+, RBK 13 5/8, SLF 3 5/8, FLC 10+, WCS 18, CAU 5/8, up/further, just since last time here ....note, many of our Asian and Gold stocks rose right up to resistance levels.... now, in ROTATION, other industry groups are taking over, popping, dig ? This, is how it's done....LEARN the patterns....

Given recent action, that my concept has still given out/caught many stocks which are UP into this "bad" period, recently, is satisfying.... remember, after mini-crashes, often, the first reflex-dead-cat bounces do not necessarily hold, but many DO, and many DO form "W" bottoms, so we ACT to take advantage, regardless.

and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, SAVLY 8+, 10-, 8+, SMTK, TLZ, CSE, RBK, RJF, SGE, BNYN, NGX, CSX, SSC, ACK, BSTRS, ASHW, IDTI., VOX, LTR, MCL, DAY, DEX, RLM, FTL, TOC, ADM, OEA, CZN, RDC, TEN, BS, NR, pb (pulling back) .... again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed stocks", even in qualified plans/ pensions accounts, diversifying, with stops. ...Again, you Must buy at least FEW, always diversifying, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers.... Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" That is Impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders , sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of instant/S.T. gratification.

note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)

* and/but, these already assumed Longs, must strengthen,
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards resistance:
Golds, ATML 8 7/8 up 2 1/4, ANET 7 1/2 up 1 1/2, OS 12 1/2 up 1, VOX, CREAF, CLCX, JBAK, BNYN, SMTK, TNL, DE, PLL, ACK, GRERF, MCHP, NGX, Oil Svcs., BSRTS, TEN, ALTR, IDTI., ASHW, PKD, SMI., OAKT, CADA, WKGP, NETM, RDC, CZN, PCMS, DEN, ATW, IIF.

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):

* too late to buy puts on these now, but acting properly, stick around:
 Puttables specifically given you herein, which are Falling/further: MHP -5 3/4, SCG -1 3/8, NEG -1, BSE, IDXX -1 (S), down/further, since last time here....the most recent Puts lists I gave you herein, really saw some big, Quick declines....neat. Also, note, MTC -18, DLP -10, CATP, HOT, still lower, gave U here near highs as Puts. See the **** paragraph, in my Last NL, here, for list of previous, Huge Puts Gainers given you....

(Important Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above)....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit.... remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... **** IMPORTANT, especially after recent drops, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables which are declining, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....

*** also LEARN from this: NOTE: but, more importantly, see, how, LBYTA, CMCSK, ADLAC, CMCSK, DELL, NEON, CTYA, METZ, LSON, MEDQ, IDXX, ELNK, EESI., DRTE, INSO, MSPG, TXCC, MEDI., MSFT, DELL, WMT, WAG, WAT, WPI., AEH, WLA, fell to their 200 DMA's....Please try to view/see their charts....obviously, many others fell right through (below) their 200 DMA's, which is even better....but, just our having predicted so many drops towards the 200 DMA's, as taught at length in my "Downside" Booklet, has been real good, yes ? But it may be a while, before we get another mass-Puttable opportunity like we had in March, and July....

Remember, stocks often fall in 2 or 3 stages, at least towards their 200 DMA ....that's another reason why we ONLY buy L.T., in-the-money options, always diversified, where suitable....some people say it has been quite Valuable, that my "PSYCLE sm" has found so many winning Puts, in this supposed "bull" market, which I do appreciate....hey, most other NL's and analysts and people never ever buy Puts at all !!! Yet too many people continue to listen to, and/or buy their output, when they could have ours.


* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): LLL -7/8, YHOO, CTAS, CLV, NEG, MHP, Utils....

Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn from.

6) Now--- Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential rises towards resistance, always Diversified, w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down:
Please be patient here, and, again, do not "force" trades, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to buy long, here....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....but DO buy "some things" here, with close stops....also, it may seem to be "a lot" of stocks to review here, especially in the next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks are, right ? Near the highs in March, and July, this list was much smaller, yes ? See the pattern ? That there are more "EVB's" now, is logical and expected, after the recent mini-crash, yes ? Be sure to check the charts of the stocks you choose to view, the Key message being, to "see" how many ARE forming EVB's here.... also, remember, we do NOT "chase up" (obviously, there is a low chance of having to do that right here and now, yes ?), only buy the ones You prefer, to choose, which are still near their lows, with stops....

note how much larger the Long-side lists have become, after the mini-crash: "industry groups": no great bases here, just many, many EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here):
Semis/Comp./Techs: RDRT, no bases....also see "watching" list below....
Prec.Metals (DBRSY, GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies, all Only near lows)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (TIE, N., POT, NLC, RYC, GGC, NH, IGL, HPC, LSS, COG, CSE, DE, EMN, LTV, RLM, LZ, DEX, BS)
Energy/and Oil Svc. double-bottoms ? (APA, FLC, HOC, HAL, KEG, IMO, MCN, NR, RDC, PDS, BDI., ATW, NE)
(new) Biotech/Health/Medical (GILD, SHG, MKG, STJ, HRC, ENZ, SLF, TGX, DURA, CCMC, INCY, IMGN, IDPH, NOX, ICN, TLZ)
Shoes (RBK, JBAK, WWW)
Asian/Latin Amer./Foreign (VTO, MSD, EDF, ALA, TV, APF, TZA, TEI., MXF, ICA, KF)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel (SGE, WH, CD, ADM, PIR, LIZ, MCL) <
Papers (WMO, GCR, ABY)
"Financials" (RJF, RNB, BAP, FTR, BT, MER, BEN, FDC)<
Capital Goods (EX, LIND, MZ)
Restaurants (CBRL, LUB, UNO, DEN)
Transportation (NSC, TK)
....Will we be the first/only to give/catch these new I.G.'s here also ? We were the first/only, to have caught many depressed "land-based" stocks near recent lows here for you (Farm, Metals, Steel, Energy Svcs.), most Golds are already up, and even pulling back already, and we were also the first in depr. Railroads, Healths, Asian, Golf, and cheapie-Techs, here for you....

And, as I have been saying from early June here, while some depresseds Are likely to set up again, mostly being EVB's, do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, this time, as when I gave them out in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from late '95 to early '96, when I also was first/only to do so near their lows then), because they do NOT have bases here, just some with good EVB's.... while accepting some Q, small losses so far in some, w/close stops.... Also note the "backing and filling and pullbacks" I suggested recently here, occuring, as many depressed stocks pull back after initial "dead-cat bounces"....

and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.": CBTSY, EVV, NBL, BHI., HLT --- were taken Off.... These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....as I have been saying, it is continuing to be a difficult time for the "long" side, so we hold more cash, and/or had more Puts....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first....

* Stocks on this next list, are also still, current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), or as "BDG's" ("big down gaps"....read that Booklet !):
Remembering ONLY to buy near their recent Lows (do not "pay up" much off their lows), as "EVB's", diversified, w/close stops, (and, the stocks listed just above, and the "Newly Boughts" in Section (3) above are also, of course, buyable near their originally suggested prices given) (note, some here are also double- bottoms, and some have V.S.T. bases). IMPORTANT note: again, some EVB stocks may, instead, form S.T. "W" double-bottom patterns down here....watch for that....be patient....some just take a bit longer to form, as per my "BDG/EVB Booklet" examples....which is fine, since we are NOT doing "overnite" trades, right ?

and also Watching --- as potential EVB's/bottoms: add, SAVLY, CBTSY, CREAF, QDEK, CCLR, FILE, ADPT, MDM, VST, to, SUPX, CRUS, NMGC, NSCP, COMS, XYLN, LIND, TKR, UFI., CYT, KNT, TXM, DIO, THI. (and, possibly, the R.E. Mtg. casualties, AAM, FP, ICH, IMH, near lows ONLY), CLCX, SMTK, ELY, ITN, HUM, IRF, AMLN, LDW, CYI., WCS, IFMX, LSS, ANET, CREAF, FWC, CZM, VAR, WIT, BC, as "EVB's" (note, most are "Techs"), some here, but some Not just yet, as they need more work, technically ....and/but, not any when/if they make new lows.... again, some of these may/will, instead, form EVB "W" "double- bottom" patterns. (like, LSS, KNT, FDC, Oil Svcs., etc.)

*** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB or "base" technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each, to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ? Many stocks are being priced as if there is no tomorrow, some L.T. busted takeovers, some ridiculously high dividend yields if paid, some just beginning late stage 7/early stage 1 here. Plenty to take a shot at here, w/close stops....DO buy some stocks Long, down here.

See my last NL here, for list of "previously Insider Buys at Higher levels" list....Note, as I have said and taught for years, how many of the above IA stocks have FALLEN, even big-time, after many Insider Buys....IA, all by itself, is NOT a VG future-price-predictive factor ! Historical Fact very few people know: Insiders are NO more than average, at best, in their timing/track records

7) other, still extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?):
"Recent Puts Buys from Section (3)" above, plus:
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet) IMPORTANT: obviously, with recent drops, very few issues are still right up near their highs, right ? so, we need rallies to buy puts after, first, before adding more Puts, dig ? obviously, it is now too late to buy many Puts I previously gave you, back in July....some were "EVT's" ("Exhaustion V (hook) Tops", the opposite of EVB's, get it ?), some were double-tops....some, regular "umbrella tops"....But, again, as of 9/1 and 10/8 lows, do Not "chase down" puttables which are already down a bunch, from their recent highs....we only want to buy our Puts, near their highs, with stops. Note, how the "potential puts list" has gotten MUCH smaller, as more stocks have already fallen....but you probably noticed this....

Potential Puts list, near their highs ONLY: add, NI., to, BSE, ABX, SRE, NEG, NMK, FPL, LLL, CGP, MTP, SCG, BAX, and, maybe, and I said, maybe, XOMD, MEDI., MRK, all as extended Utilities or Health/Med-relateds, or Golds, as Puttables, near their highs ONLY, w/close stops above patterns....Utilities are/would be rare, "hook" EVT's....

Once again, As I have always said/taught: LEARN, that, as I have proven countless times over the years, normally, NO amount of real or perceived "reported good or fundamental news" (other than a bonifide takeover offer), can prevent a stock in S.T. stage 4, 5, or 6, from falling/further....recent proof of this, lies in the declines, not only in Energies late 1997, but also in Financials, Retails, and now, many, many others, which have fallen/are falling, in recent weeks/months --- even into "higher earnings", dig ?

8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
None really....continue to view the charts of the "new long buys" in Section (3) above, and in my last NL, and LEARN the "EVB" patterns, from that "Booklet". If I get the time, perhaps I can re-run the 8-staged explanations of each "PSYCLE sm" stage again, here, soon....

*** Remember, Initial Upside targets from stage 2 pullbacks (or pops up from stage 7 EVB's) are still, up to around their still-falling 200 day MA's, and/or previously -broken-down-from, price levels, right ? (and vice-versa for Puts, down to their 200 DMA's, and/or their previously-broken-up-above, price levels). While "depressed double-bottom" stocks must first, obviously, breakout above their "W" S.T. tops, to validate....It is most important, that we recognize, and ACT to take advantage of, high-reliability patterns, like depr. bases, and/or EVB's, and/or double-bottoms, at times when "the 95 %" are most scared, near lows, with close stops, and no emotion, right ? Like late last week, and early Sept. Oh, and, cntrary to what the Media says, recent "market action" has been NO more "volatile" recently, than normally....The internally-created mental perceptions of "the 95 %" are, as they most often have been, again, WRONG....especially at tops/bottoms.
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, similarly, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when suitable, than to never do any....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.

Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.

*** So, again, if you are "new" to my NL, and need ideas to buy long, or put, stocks "Now", as long as their current prices are right near those given in Section (3), that is where you find "do-able Now" ideas....Section (3)....and, Sections (6) and (7) are also longer useable/learnable lists, when/if those issues might set up properly as longs/puts....

*** (Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two logical, service-oriented reasons: 1) to give you a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid" than others, I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create complete Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' patterns , you will learn this more quickly, yes ? I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages. But Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)