1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) BW mag. 10/16, said, "despite sharp drops in many NASDAQ stocks, the avg. PE of the NASDAQ 100 index remains over 56, well above the 24 PE of the S & P index".... 2) note more weakness among some Golds, remember, it is just another I.G., and carries little or no special "D.A.P.P. value"....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) recent BW mag. had headine study, "does money buy happiness ?", points out, yet again, that, whicle incomes for many people have risen a lot, their opinion whether they are 'very happy' has actually FALLEN in recent years....a yogic message if I ever heard one, ay ? also, that women are less happy, they say, due partly-at-least of additional pressures from their achieving more in the workplace, which, is kinda what they said they wanted, yes ? how do YOU see these items ?.... 2) speaking of women, CNBC's Consuela Mack, today at 8:40, actually misled, saying, "you can watch the Bond, and have a pretty good idea where stocks are headed...." Uh, got any L.T., multi-example proof of that ? oy....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) as I first predicted last year at their all-time top herein, recent BW mag. listed where 'advertising dollars' are being spent nationwide, and, while Internet spending IS up a high % off a low base, it STIIl, counter to all the dumb analysts and 'new paradigm' people's pitches near the top, a VERY small % of ad spending, last, in a list with magazines, radio, direct mail, newspapers, and TV, in that order....see ? ....2) been reading lately about two huge Insurance co. bakruptcies coming in Japan, and how bearish that is/willbe for their stock indexes....of course, today, the Nikkei. was up a ton, + 2.5 % in one day....NO 'links' !
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) just FYI, recent BW issues suggest, HUG, DAL, as takeovers, we shall see.... 2) Jim Stack, NL guy, on CNBC, today, 8:50, lists 17 of the biggest, most followed, famous, 'gorilla stocks', forming a H & S top, that we have Not bottomed, and, worries about 'classic fundamentals.....getting a recession out of the way after the election....excesses like margin debt, PE's, need to be unwinded, in a L.T. decline, Dow to well under 9,000....this is a young bear mkt., till late 2001...." He hates MSFT, YHOO, from down here, likes, DBD, DNY, TFX....He said, "when we see a sharp drop in consumer confidence, that's when we'll get a buy opp., late next year...." We shall see....for the millionth time, i wish they had shared his actual, L.T.T.R., so we'd know whether worth taking any of his advice, dig ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) well, recent articles are confirming what I, again being among the very first/few to suggest herein to you, that the Govt.'s supposed 'surplus' is fading in amount, even for those who got all stupidly and politically and incorrectly excited about it, a while ago....with our econ. fading, you will see that number, whatever it may or may not have been, falling, anyway.....and you know what that means.... 2) and, Thu., finally, Greenspan (whom I really have liked for a long time) hinted, "the role of Energy prices may be larger than he had thought up till now...." A littl elate, huh, but at least, like me, he admitted it....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
all calls FILE (16+ to 23+) for VVQ 150% Gain....all puts NVDA (85 to 53+) for VQ 125% G....all puts CYN (40+ to 32) for Q 90% G....all puts GE (60 to 53) for Q 50% G....all puts DV (40 to 30+) for VQ 90% G....all puts FS (78 to 63) for VQ 90% G....bal. calls WIN (13+ to 17-) for VQ 90% G....1/2 pos. puts ENE (89+ to 79+) for VVQ 44% G....
and/but, longs, PDG ?, BYD, PER, DPH, DCN, FFA ?, RT, DQE, TSP, MRD, KRY, ASA ?, AIR, VIXL ?, K. ?, SVU, DROOY, CNXT, SEE, FFIV (26 to 32 to 25), AIR ?, EWB, and, puts, VRTS, CHKP ?, SEPR, GELX, RTI, FRX, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio, except recently perhaps....which, again, normally presages much better performance forward, yes ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AAPL @ 19-, 1/2 pos. CIT @ 13+, CSX @ 20-, 1/2 pos. CVD @ 6.81, 1/2 pos. DG @ 15-, 1/2 pos. DLX @ 20+, GIGA @ 6+, 1/2 pos. JWN @ 14++, 1/2 pos. MOT @ 20 1/4, 1/2 pos. N. @ 14 1/4, 1/2 pos. NSC ?, 1/2 pos. ODP @ 6 3/16, 1/2 pos. PGA @ 2.43, 1/2 pos. UB @ 18+, 1/2 pos. AIR ?, CKP ny (note, BGG, NETA, was Not bt.)
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4, AII. @ 8, AM @ 16++, AN @ 5 3/4, ASA @ 15, BGO @ 0.405, BGP @ 13-, BKS @ 16++, BNP @ 8, CA @ 24, CAU 0.87, CN @ 4, CRDS @ 6-, DL @ 10, ENN @ 6+, F. @ 24, FFA no ?, FMT @ 3 3/16, HDG @ 1.00, HLIT @ 11-, IHK @ 1.03, K. ?, LEA @ 20+, LU @ 20+, NITE @ 24+, NTLI. @ 38, OCN @ 5.47, ORB @ 7 3/4, PB @ 17-, PKS @ 14 1/8, PRGN @ 18, STEI. @ 2-, TMG @ 4.43, USU @ 4 1/8, VIXL @ 4+ ?, WH @ 11...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, SLS, DHC, CX, IMP, FMKT, NETA, NTOP, FDRY, NXTV, BGG, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
(new ones): 1/2 pos. CIN @ 31-, 1/2 pos. EPG @ 65-, 1/2 pos. IMPH @ 65+, JNJ @ 97+, 1/2 pos. OAT @ 80-, 1/2 pos. PE @ 62+, 1/2 pos. FPC @ 63, MTG @ 63,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') CBL @ 25+, CHKP no ?, COGN @ 43 ?, GR @ 42+, ITWO @ 190+, JNPR @ 240+, KMI. @ 40-, NBL @ 42-, PNK @ 22+, RKY @ 66, SFY @ 41+....
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, IDPH, DUK, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", MAY, MZ, CNC, ENTU, G, CTXS, DRTN, NTN, BTC, FDRY, HON, AFFX, CLE, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ADRX, CAM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
still giving you plenty more nice, mostly Tech. Winners: GIGA 7.87 up 1.63, CCU 56.50 up 10.63, UB 21.31 up 2.87, INTC 43.81 up 8.81, NITE 30 1/2 up 6, ADIC 14 3/4 up 3 1/8, NTLI. 37 3/8, 44, PRGN 21 up 3, MSTR 21 5/8, 25 5/8, CIT 14.68 up 1.56, VOD 40.68 up 3.69, CVD 7 1/4 up 1/2, ORB 8.50 up 0.81, BNP 8.68 up 0.50, BGP 14 1/2 up 1 3/4, LBRT 25.81 up 5.81, LU 22.93 up 2.43, MOT 23 3/8 up 2 7/8, JWN 15.75 up 1.06, AAPL 20.37 up 1.81, CSX 20.93 up 1.37, DLX 21.37 up 1, EMN 37.68 up 1.68, ADIC 13 1/4, FILE 23 5/8, PKS 14 7/8, CMH 9.31, DG 15.31, UIS 12.06, EMA 9.65, higher, since last time here....and, as expected, the T-bond already up to 100 and 18/32, from 98, see ? and, as with the Put side, are/were, FMKT, ENTU 30, HTV, etc., 'fakeout breakdowns' ? yup....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
BKS 18.43 up 1 3/4, LEA 21 3/4, 22 3/4, 21 1/2, HLIT 10 3/4 up 1 1/8, CPB, GIGA 7 1/8, DLX 20 3/8, CA 26.62 up 3.13, NTLI. 42 5/8, UNP 38 7/8, 40 1/2, K., FILE, F. 23 5/8, 24 1/2, AM, CSCQ, OHI, USU, ADIC 14, JWN, CRDS 5 3/4, 6 7/8, 6 3/8, GY, CN, MLG, HA, ALI. 2, OHI, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) CHINA 6, 9 11/16, VIXL 4.15, 4.75, MRCH 12 1/2 up 1, FMT, HLIT 12, RAD, STEI, FFA, ASA, K. 22 3/8, FILE, PMTC 10.37 up 0.87, MLG, AM, CN, DL 9 7/8, ASL, AU, AN, USU, BTO....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
lots more nice drops for you: JNPR -20, IMPH -7 1/2, JNJ -6 1/2, NVDA -5 1/2 (S), RKY +1, -5 1/2, FS -4 1/2 (S), MTG -4, EPG -4, PE -3, DV -2 (S), OAT -2 1/2, KMI. -2, GE -1 1/2 (S), CIN -2, HSY -1, ENE, lower, since last NL here....and GE, FS, approached/fell to their 200 DMA....and, MIKE, CMTN, RNWK, PRIA, given here from highs at Puts for you, much lower still....and, are, VRTS, RKY, BEAS, 'fobo's ? are you learning the patterns ? you have had no excuse....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, MLS, BNP, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, HRP, JDN, AII, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (BD, AAI, F, DCN, DPH ?, AFWY, CUM, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, ASA ?, BMG, BGO, CBJ, AKS, etc.), Food-related (FFA, WH, IHK, BLM, CPB, K, etc.), Banks/Insur., Farm/Land/Fert., and Precious Metals, Retails/Apparel/Merchandise, Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys, Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (EGRP no, CIT, NITE)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? WCOM, WSTL, WCII, LU, etc., as EVB's, etc.), and, Chem., Energy (TMG, TSO, HEC ?, etc.)
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (many depr. Techs getting bounces already, so we do not 'pay up') IFMX, LGTO, CBE, DG, UB, NSC, JWN, FBN, GRA, DLX, PHSY, MOT, ARJ, CLE, AAPL, REV, GRT, PKS, VIXL ?, MAY, APN, EMA, ODP, BKS, DGTC, CNC, STSA, WH, PB, MZ, DDR ?, BTC ?, SVI, ADIC, LOJN, CVD, FMKT, LBRT, PRGN, AFFX, (note, re-added some previously given ones again, dig ?), to, G ny, CIT, CUM, N, LEA, PX, EMN, ROH, UIS, SKS, AKS, ATI, AIR ?, ORB, CRDS, DLTK, BTX ?, BAL, MSTR, PLB, AIB, DRTN, CTXS, TEC, CA, to, MLS, BGP, AN, OBJX, FSW, RBC, JS ?, FBN, PHC, BOW, JBM, MDG, CCL, CTO, MAT, DL, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead ....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, MLS, JDN....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, ADRX, LLTC, JNPR, FPC, HP, JNJ, NBL, OAT, PE, NE, CIN, GUC, ELN, EPG, HBC, KMI, HDI, PMI, OAT, PHA, SZA, ALXN, UNT, WAG, MKL, PNK, ADVS, BELM, APWR, CHCS, IMPH, IMGN, NEWP, SKYW, VRTS, OSIP, (again, note, as above, re-added more previously given names), to, SEPR, CGP, RKY, AVE, BXP, D, EMC, ENE, HSY, MRX, COGN, MXIM, GLW, DNA, DGX, AXP, JBL, MLNM, NMSS, APWR, CHKP, BLDP, IWOV, MVSN, EXTR, SANM, CBL, APH, ADI, CYN, INRS, GE, PLXS, ARBA, AUDC, to,
(repeats) BRCM, NVLS, SSTI, MTG, BSC, LSCC, XLNX, PSEM, ANEN, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, from recent past NL's....some Semis declibned to their initial downside levels, already....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES