1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes: 1) neat, as we were the first/only to predict for you herein, many Banks, Financials, Brokers, Onlines, Retails, have S.T. bottoms forming.... 2) while, even with the "Dow" up 200 on Tues., the Comp./Hdwre./Semis, are falling off suggested S.T. tops ....3) as I said recently, the DJ. Util. and Trans. indexes had still not made final lows, but, as I also said previously, neither has tons of downside left.... 4) "fundfamentally" (oy) some of the beaten-down Insur. stocks are due to become "takeover" targets ahead, as Congress removes the 60-year-old barrier to Banks owning Insur. companies....as taught you, 'sometimes', fundamentals DO help --- but ONLY after the "PSYCLE sm" technicals are in place....You should know I am 100 % against repealing Glass-Stegall, unless one also levels the playing field perfectly for all Banks as well....never happen....but you will probably do well with our EVB's herein, in these groups, over time, while "the 95 %" get too bearish on them.... 5) we may have just missed putting the "Asian" stocks at their highs....well, I tried for you...
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, and/or improper/incorrect comments from
the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.: 1) CNBC's Bob Pisani, Tues. a.m., said, "it is hard to find even one single bull, in the T-Bond pits"....you should know by now what that likely means....he repeated his findings, Wed. ....2) Tues., on CNBC at 9 am, a Nesbitt, Burns, analyst, said, "higher prices are here to stay...." ....3) another beautiful "PSYCLE sm" signal, L.A. Times, James Flanigan front-page story, 10/17, "a decade of Defense mergers yields disappointments", gets published only AFTER large % declines (as you know, we were the first/only to have predicted herein for you herein) in those stocks....also published near S.T. low....neat, huh....the pattern never changes.... 4) front-page headline in the "money & investing section" WSJ, 10/18, "Return to 10,000: is this Bear territory ? This....party would be a downer....as interest rates climb...." , also gets published right near the S.T. lows, get it ? last, as explained in my "Scenarios" and "Media" booklets, they show a very misleading chart of the T-bond, which, nevertheless, shows I.R.'s NOT "climbing", only up 1 1/2 % since lows predicted here last summer....if just a 1 1/2 % rise is "climbing", then what word would they use for a larger rise, as we have had many times this century ? Last, in the article, they interview a daytrader gal, who was all excited about making $ 600. Friday intraday, then admitting she had lost $ 13,000 the previous few weeks....perfect daytrading mentality....
5) CNBC'c Alan Chernov (again), Wed., 8:50 am, misleadingly showed just a one-month chart of DELL (talk about lack of proper perspective), "look at the volatility there...." WRONG....even a teenager knows that a S.T. decline of just 24 %, is NOT "volatility"....Geez, DELL also fell 24 % from its Feb. '99 high, and no one said anything....Re-read my "Scenarios" and Media" booklets, regarding "words' used by Media people, etc. Note, they only mention "volatility (and, almost always incorrectly, mind you), after a decline, rarely after advances, as if "volatility" in and of itself, is somehow inherently negative....idiots....the damage they do to nice people.... 6) CNBC's Joe Kernan, reporting how some stocks are reporting "great earnings, but their stocks fall", said, "I am getting tons of faxes, asking me to tell them what is going on, what is causing this...." Which explains a lot about how 95 % of all people view things, yes ? And, of course, he does not know anyway....so why are they asking a reporter such a question, in the first place ? But he could be sending all those people to me, and they would be helped....what a shame....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/companies/newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/contrary/unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves: 1) Wed., CNBC's B. Griffeth, 9:20 am, interviewing the pres. of "EMC", posited, "EMC's earnings beat the street....but if things ar eso good, how come it's stock is getting smashed ?" Well, as usual, his comments are improper on two levels.... first, a stock correcting only slightly from 76 to 67, is NOT "smashed"....second, EMC has has a pretty, rare, steady rise for quite a while now, yes ? Reflecting, if one likes fundamentals, steadily improving earnings, which Mr. Griffeth should have known and reported, but did neither....next.... 2) similarly, Wed., on CNBC, 10 am, "LLY" reported that Prozac sales will be lower....but, as taught you, that "news" only comes "out", now, after its stock had already fallen from 97 to 65, dig ? the pattern never changes....all those overpriced analysts loved LLY up there, yes ? Just like they loved PFE (viagra), and all the other Drug stocks near their highs, even as they sold at ridiculous PE's (which "fundamentalists' are supposed to value when low, not high, but do not, right ?), when I gave them out as Puts herein near their highs....Last, amazingly, a gal reporter on CNBC, 11;30 am, actually said, "lower sales of Prozac are depressing LLY stock...." , and did not even know she made a good joke....unbelieveable....Some of those people are so wrapped in their tunnel-vision and ignorance, they don't even know what they just said....next....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from
Brokerages, NL writers, Analysts: 1) note, again, the major finl. papers interviewed multi-year, semi-perma-bear Jim Stack, right near the V.S.T. low recently, yes ? get it ? the pattern never changes....but at least he did show a chart of the "17 big-names which are in stage 4, PSYCLE sm-type top formations", in which he agrees with me....but, instead of using total I.G.R. properly, long and short diff. groups simultaneously, he has missed tons of moves the last several years, which we have caught for YOU, herein, by his incorrectly 'trying to paint the whole market with a braod brush'....my stuff is so much better for people....but he is 'famous'....must have a good PR person Ihave been unable to find....what a shame for the country.... 2) I heard yet another wordy, wing-tip, useless analyst on CNBC use the maddening term, "at this particular point in time..." Gee, couldn't he just simply say, "now" or "here" ? I rest my case about "analysts"-speak.... 3) a true, and scary story, in Barron's 10/18, told, how options market-makers in "TYC" stock (which I gave you herein as a put near its high recently), just "stepped aside" when its stock fell from $ 105 to 83 real quickly, and did NOT provide liquidity nor help (which is, supposedly, their job ....so what else is new....don't get me started). They specifically said, "although the exchange was displaying the bid/ask prices, it wasn't necessarily honoring them." I rest my case....More reasons to have a good full-service broker ....They also said their study found that 45 % of the time, the 'best prices' are "passed over by other exchanges"....wow....FYI, a good full-service broker can make/save you 1/8 on each side of transactions, often enough, to more than compensate you for seemingly on-the-surface higher one-time costs....Keep that in mind for when I re-enter the biz....don't lose me....BTW, long-term, I think some market-makers will go under, and/or be replaced by computers more....Good....have you ever met some of those people ? We have found most of them often pretty nasty, and quite uncaring about helping others, which is supposed to have been their whole reason for existing, in their "good old buys, anti-client club", but I digress....
4) Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letter, 10/6, "the Dow confirmed the Trans. weakness by violating its own may low....the 2 avgs. breaking below critical preceeding lows has signaled that the primary trend has turned down and that a primary Bear Market is now in force." Hmmmm, as I said, he only "begins to go bearish" after many large drops have already occured, and I say we have a S.T. low in many depressed stocks here....we shall see who is early and who is late.... 5) Barron's 10/11, in a letter to the editor, Bob Farrell, pointed out that, "it is a sad commentary when Alan Abelson's column says that the most expensive stocks are considered to be the best investments", while many good companies with lower PE's, dividends, etc., "languish in price with this new investor philosophy." I agree.... 5) unfortunately, Barron's also mentioned Jim Stack (see above) to no help, and then promoted a new "DOW 36,000" book by two other guys, whose whole premise, according to Mr. Stack, is flawed....but, of course, they both got major mentioned in Barron's, so tons of unsuspecting, unenlightened people will by his NL and their book, anyway, the Media fostering more damage, and enriching the wrong people....and here I languish, better than all of them....amazing....
e) more general items proving why one must ignore 95 % of everything else out there: 1) each year around this season, I reiterate how, often, people in Mutual Funds get whacked with having to pay taxes on 'gains', and 'distributions', even when/if their mutual fund may have actually declined in price during the past year ....Another in a long line of logical reasons why I eschew most MF's, most of the time....In most cases, one should consult tax people before buying newly, or holding, some MF's, late into the year....check this out if this applies to you or anyone you know....As usual, the finl. svcs. ind. itself has done a lousy job of educating investors.... 2) more confirmation of residential R.E. likely tops: Barron's 10/18, "Have Lumber Prices Bottomed ?" pointed out that, "since July '99, lumber has fallen from a high of $ 440. per 1,000 board feet, to $ 286, before bottoming a bit." Gee, if, supposedly "housing demand/prices continue hot as blazes", then, how come Lumber, uh, at roughly 25 % of all housing costs/demand, FELL so much ? No "links". Gotta get me a L.T. chart of Lumber, so I can see where its L.T. support may lie....As previously reported here, "Stock Prices" of housing companies have been falling for months....But, I also see a potential bottom coming in them, now that the analyusts who loved them at their highs, are afraid of them now, dig ? the pattern never changes.... 3) oh, forgot to tell you of one more occasioanl negative about ALL discount broker firms, sometimes anti-client service, not disclosed: many, many of these firme occasionally "mark-up" and/or "sell to you, from their long inventory", stocks, mostly OTC stocks, sometimes when one might have gotten better prices otherwise....several have been chastised by the SEC....
As you have seen over the last year, how well one does, just "doing" the best
individual stocks, and Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly
long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and
"indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my
output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to
"seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we
also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....note: (Q = quick; i.e, was less than 2-3 months holding period
....VQ = very quick; i.e., was less than 3-4 weeks holding period)....and "VVQ"
means it was held even shorter-term than that....
Also re-read "the Guide" for how I derive the Estimated % percentage Gains I
show herein, on assumed Hypothetically closed-out trades (always assumed to have
been in Options, where applicable/suitable, and on margin where
available/suitable/logical, and on a cash basis where not, as per "PSYCLE sm"
tenets)....and "bal." here in section (3), means, "the balance" of assumed long
positions, assuming an initial "1/2 pos." sale....and, "css" means "covered
(previous) short sale", where no puts options existed....
more Put Gains for you: puts CTS (58+ to 43++) for Q 175% G....1/2 pos. puts TQNT (70- to 55+) for VQ 111% G....puts JCI. (70 to 58+) for 100% G....bal. puts CYTC (40- to 32) for VQ 75% G....bal. puts ATML (39+ to 31-) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. puts SPW (91 to 80) for 90% G.... puts ACV (27 to 22+) for 66% G....1/2 pos. puts PMK (28++ to 24++) for VVQ 85% G ....1/2 pos. puts TERN (49- to 40-) for VQ 100% G....puts CCL (48+ to 40-) for 90% G....puts SU (43+ to 35+) for 100% G.... puts LD (21+ to 17++) for VQ 90% G....puts TAM (13- to 10+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. puts NOPT (39 to 32) for VVQ 80% G....css BIO/A (29- to 23+) for 33% G....1/2 pos. puts MSFT (95 to 85) for VVQ 66% G....puts SUI. (36- to 31++) for 44% G....
Interesting, if you go back and actually count them in section (3) here, in the last 9 NL's, since the 9/27 issue, total, we have "taken" 57, Quick, Large % Puts Gains for you, with 30, Q, smaller % Puts losses....decent....
and/but, longs, ESOL, SOC, CGI., TMCS, NHC, EAR, IM, CKP (8 to 9+ to 8), bal. PFC (6++ to 9 to 6++), and, puts, OMPT (66 to 56 to 67), DTPI., IRF, RCL, for quick, very small losses, normally of smaller overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....but still been too many of them lately.... rare....I also wish I could be more clear about these '?' questionable sales lately....it just happens that way at times....
also, note the small breakdowns of budding S.T. bases among longside Q, S, losses, here....gotta preserve capital....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5 to $ 10. stocks are listed here as
"stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all
losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs): (note:
If you are New to this NL, here are the most recent "Buyables/Puttables",
long/short) (note: a " - " after a price, means "just under" that price....and, a
" + " means "just over" that price....i.e., 16+ means, 16 to 16 3/8, and, 56-,
means, 55 5/8 to 56, etc.)....again, the idea is to "just get real close" to my
listed prices here, when buying long/selling/putting issues given....try NOT to
worry about every 1/8 or 1/16....
(note more new ones) 1/2 pos. ALL @ 24-, 1/2 pos. AMD @ 16++, CMH @ 8++, 1/2 pos. FIX @ 6++, FTN @ 28-, HIB @ 12-, HRC @ 5+, HWS @ 2.06, IMG ?, LRW @ , MSPG @ 26-, RTHM @ , WIR @ ,
note, SCIO, was Not bt. last time, still too high from bottom of base....
"Repeats": (Note, some new ones !)
AGE @ 24++, AMTD @ 16 1/8, ATC @ 1 3/16, BAMM @ 8.06, BDX @ 26, BWL/A @ 7-, CASY @ 12+, DMI. @ 2 9/16, EGRP @ 22+, HCM @ 3 15/16, HSIC @ 13++, IFMX @ 6 9/16, IMH @ 4 3/16, JBOH @ 7+, LDW @ 6+, MSN @ 9/16, NTBK @ 20, PIR @ 6--, SEV @ 2 5/8, STE @ 12-, TG @ 21+, TMO @ , TSC @ 4.06, TXB @ 3 11/16, USL @ 6++, VBAC @ 1 3/16, WTT @ 1 5/8....most are still EVB's, bases, and/or very low-priceds...."buy (only) low", right ? (but still 'Not that great' a list, as I have been intimating recently)
NOTE: as I teach in the "Green Guide", countless times, you
should know, that, often, there is NOT "just one day, time, or price" when my
stocks become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally
suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they
may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases, or longer tops, right ? When/if
they rise/fall in between those times, I follow-up those moves, in section (4)
and (5)....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....Remember, I have
subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU may
have just noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE
viewing the charts of the stocks herein, first, before acting....and there ARE subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....so I give it all, for all your situational needs....your choices, no excuses....
*** therefore, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they
hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even
if weeks pass by !!! "Just get close", and do everything else properly: the
stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, NO emotion,
diversifying, etc., and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind.
group, and sentiment/media, patterns.
** Important: took, SIEB, RLC, DUK, FLS, LTR, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....
Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading
desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,
some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips, etc. --- either, for
straight Cash, and/or, on Margin, and/or (only) L.T., in-the-money Options, etc.,
so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification
--- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL....LEARN the
patterns !
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts),
for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones) RCNC @ 50,
"Repeats": DOV @ 41-, GGG @ 33, POG @ 9-, PVY @ 29+, SANM @ 82+, SEWY @ 29+, VVTV @ 29....Note, much smaller list, due to many drops having already occured....
and/but, took, ADBE, IRF, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....also, any new highs = off the Puts list....VIEW their charts, to see what aborted Puts patterns look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", LNCR, MIR, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, ORCL, ARA, SNE, HIT, CHKP, ICGE, AMGN, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts recently....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit "missing" some, does not mean YOU have to miss those....if you do just a little work, you may catch ones I miss herein....
I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" catching suggested ideas, so
you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit.
Also, this tells us whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at
that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output,
each NL....Again, the idea is to Learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done"
ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
STE 13 3/4 up 1 5/8, MM 14 up 1 5/8, HRC 5 5/8 up 1/2, AMD 17 3/4 up 1 1/4, NTBK 21 7/8 up 1 3/8, AGE 25 7/8 up 1 1/2, FTN 30 1/8 up 2 1/2, HIB 12 5/8 up 7/8, RAH 19 1/8, HMA 8 3/8, HEB 7 1/2, DAY 0.11, higher, since last time here....mostly Health and Financial, dig ?
note: please try to appreciate, that I
have some subscribers, who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want
the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the
"higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the
overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets
them....always view the One-year Daily charts....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or bounces off pullbacks: IFMX 7 1/2 up 1 1/8, DMI. 2 7/8 up 3/8, BAMM 8 5/8 up 5/8, CASY 13, ALB 17+, ATV, SYNX, APFC, TXB, GDC, EGRP, TBFC +1, MWHS, NTBK, BDX, PWN, AMTD, SEEK, TBP, SDH, SSC, JBOH, TSC, NWK, PWN, KRY, PMC, TCA, HSIC, CCC, LDW, HEB, HOC, TPN, BWL/A, OJ, NPK, MCL, TSC, BCP, CDE, TE, TPS, MSN, CCH....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below....remember, many "Golds" are already having normal stage 2 pullbacks, right ?
again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed
Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....
Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, minimum, at one time, to increase your
chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but,
Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to
expect anyone to be ble to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues....maybe 5 to
10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2
....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of
"instant/S.T. gratification".
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list
above....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must
strengthen" or else, yes ?) BCP 5 3/4, 6 5/8, NTBK 20, SSC, HSIC, TE, JBOH, AMTD, HLX, CASY, IHK, PWN, HMT, MWHS, CCC, LWN, SEV, LDW, HOC, HCM, IMH, TPS, HIV, MSN, TG....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
CMOS -8, JCI. -7 1/2 (sow), CTS -5 1/2, VVTV -2 1/2, ADTN -2, AVX -1, NOPT -1 (sow), TERN -1, BRR -1, PMK -1 1/4, VISX -1 (S), UVN -2, RCNC -2, SLR, MSFT, ATML (S), CCL (S), BIO/A (S), TAM (S), SUI. (sow), TNL, EQT, HAE, WJ, fell even further....note, PMK, LLTC, DGX, MSFT, LD, all fell to their 200 DMA (S)....and, MXIM, BRR, LSI., approached their 200 DMA.... while, IBM 91 dn 16 neat, CGX 19+, EFII. 38+, HWP, TYC, NTLI. (S), TER 29+, DLX 32+, DEX 34-, ETN 70, ADI., fell even further....
Note: these have always been listed, by "number of points
falling", from most, to least...."(sow)" means, "Sell previously long puts On
next Weakness, towards/near support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their previously
long Puts right near here, and/or as in section (3) above....I follow-up Every
idea mentioned, for YOUR benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades,
they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion,
nor antsiness....let them do their thing.
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless,
and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
once again, remember, to form a "top" over time, a stock most often must jockey around, right ? this takes days and even weeks, as taught in my
"Downside" booklet, re-read it please....that's one reason it helps to view these types of "bounces" in this section at times....
Again, we still need to see more stocks break below recent
lows/necklines....hence the recent "1/2 pos.(ition)" sales in sec. (3), dig ?
You are on your own, regarding buying Puts after "bounces" which occur in between
NL's, which do not break to new highs, or do not break toppy patterns !
Remember, we either buy our Puts right up near each stock's High, or not at
all....but you can still view their charts, to "see" previously
formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to hopefully Learn the Patterns
from.
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Be patient here, and do not "force" trades,
or overtrade, just because, PSY-chologically, you "want" to have "something" to
buy long....do NOT be "antsy", relax....let the patterns come to YOU....also,
there may seem to be "a lot", or "fewer" stocks to review here, especially in the
next two sections here....but that says how cheap many stocks have been at times,
right ? View their charts, piecemeal, at least....Also, remember, we do NOT
"chase up"....only buy the ones You prefer to choose, which are still near their
lows, with stops for protection, i.e., in a "pension plan", one should probably
not do the real cheapies, etc.
"Potential Longs, by Industry Groups,
for Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's
and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new
lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):
NOTE:
obviously, given recent pops, has gotten more difficult to find "depresseds still
right near their lows", so keep that in mind....we'll sometimes pay an eentsy bit
more, but will NOT "pay up" much.
note how "not great" this side of the marketplace is, lately....
Health-relateds (HEB, HMA, TXB, TCA, NHP, STE, IMG)
Prec.Metals (CCH, VGZ, CAU, DAY, KRY, longer-term, on bigger pullbacks only)
and, some Cyclical/Steel/Temp. Employment/Gaming, etc., stocks, likely, again, but ONLY after/on bigger pullbacks....
Internet-and-Online Broker-ralated (scary, but sexy, use close stops) TBFC, AGE, JBOH, NTBK, AMTD, BAMM, and more below, on pullbacks only, etc.
emerging groups ?: "depressed computer stuff" (like, maybe, CPU, MWHS, and, maybe, soon, even ODP, OMX, etc. ?), "Waste", "Athletics/Shoes", and, Foods ?, and/but most all Financials (Banks, Insur.) may need more work....
Note how many stocks there are on these lists....what I see, I share, for
your benefit....as I have said countless times here, try to VIEW at least "some"
of them, every day, for, say, 10 mins....do NOT try to view them all, at once....
since most remain on these lists for a while, hopefully you will know when they
pullback to buyable levels, having seen their chart patterns before....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing" or "double"
bottoms, near recent lows ONLY: adding,
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, add, ABS, MGL, ORG, ALL, AET, WLV, HWS, SVI., ACL, AVS, FTN, BG, MAT, SKS, CMH, LRW, MYG, to, CIT, DME, AFC, ABK, TEN, TAP, EX, FTL, CVD, PZN, USL, CMA, HB, TAP, SNV, HCP, BND, TSN, (note, more new ones, "big names," and "financials"), to,
"repeats": JOB, PIR, BWL/A, TCA, TMO, TG, SYNX, FC, HLX, UNA, OMM, NTN, HIV, SEV, to, those listed in section (3), and those just above here, plus, DMI, CASY, UFD/A, VBAC, GDC, HEC, HNV, MSN, SAMC, XCL, still, most as "EVB's", with a few basers....
also "Repeating" recent, 'Longer-term-only' "watching" list: a real
mish-mosh: adding, add, MUEI, TOY, KEA, SOC, AMD, MMG, TZA, HIB, WMI, OH, CTHR, IOM, to, BDX, AGE, AW, UNA, WIR, MSPG, BXM, CTX, CNB, CTK, STE, FNL, IHK, NTBK, as potential "EVB"s", and may base/bottom ahead....will let you know in sec. (3), as usual....some still need technical work....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on the lesser-known ones....
Remember, the last list, is primarily a "watching to possibly buy" list....
They only become Buys, when they appear(ed) in sec. (3) above, and/or when/if
they decline towards lows and hold, yes ? That's why YOU must LOOK at their
charts, over time, when you have a few minutes....How else are you going to learn
the patterns ? This is a positive, not a negative....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB, or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down):
other "Techs/computer/software/media/internets, etc.", Puttables, are in two lists just below here....
**** others, and new ones: many more, added, TUES, CNXT, BJ, ALKS, AMGN, CSCO, ERTS, RCNC, ETEK, OCLI, PLCM, MCRL, GIC, MTG, SNE, HIT, UTR, to, CHKP, CLFY, CTXS, GOTO, INTI, DRTE, SMTC, XLNX, TQNT, AGN, AVX, CTS, FCX, MMM, CTV, VVTV, VIA/B, INTI, SPP, to, AA, IPI, ARA, MGG, DOV, VIGN, CNG, HOMS, INKT, LLTC, MXIM, PESC, SAWS, CCL, CXY, IVX, LD, MMM, PHG, QLGC, SDLI, TSI, VSEA, ARBA, ANTC, CLRN, JBL, SLR, SONC, ZBRA, ARC, DYN, CNG, WLM, MWD, SPW, TAM, INSS, MSFT, SANM, DOX, TLAB, AHAA, DST, ADVS, ECP, CDI, CLS, BC, VISX, VTSS, FDS, PEB, EXDS, SNPS, ACS, GE, KWP, PB, RNWK, SFX, ABDR, ADVP, AWRE, BVF, EL, PKS, from recent past NL's,
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops, and/or QSL's: Extended and at
least Semi-parabolic: Energy, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Computer/Internet/Software, High-PE Techs, Media, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns....of course, many issues are already down now, so fewer "still near their highs", right ?
but, removed most "Publishing" stocks from potential "put" lists, just FYI....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES
NEW very brief LESSON: just one little example: note our predicted drop in "SUI." stock....now notice, the recent 'one-day, big, cathartic volume', AFTER the drop, as per my EVB concept, dig ? i.e., likely late stage 7 action, S.T., see it ? NO bottom yet, NOT a buy, just for your education, watch it from here....SUI. should flatten out over time, yes ? and, we cover any short sales/puts bought made at its top....The pattern never changes....
**** The following several paragraphs are in every
NL:
I have been so busy, expending so much time/effort, researching, finding,
and giving the ideas I do in each NL lately, and creating each NL itself, I have
not had time to give many more "Lessons" here lately, nor to finish 3 more real
valuable "Booklets"....FYI, besides all the previous Lessons you have hopefully
gleaned from all my past materials, NL's, ideas, and my (7) educational Booklets,
I re-ran "the seven sequential stages of my "PSYCLE sm", from my 12/7/98 NL,
through the 12/28/98 NL....refer back to, and re-read, those section (8) lessons,
any time....hope they helped....they remain available, on the web....also take
this time to VIEW charts from section (3) and (6)....
NOTE: just a quick reminder, that, as per the green "Guide", a single stock
herein may certainly be found, in 1, 2, 3, even 4, different sections of my NL at
any given time....this is logical, and helpful for you....example: it may be in
sec. (3) as a new buy at a certain price area, and, in sec. (4) if it has risen
or fallen decently from the bought level, as I follow-up its movements for your
benefit, and, still also in sec. (6) as a buy when/if it pulls back to its
original suggested buy level....This is a GOOD thing for you, NOT a bad/confusing
thing....A stock might have risen, from, say, $ 6 (sec. 3) , to $ 7 1/4 (sec. 4
follow-up), then pulls back again (sec. 4, next paragraph), and, when/if it pulls
back towards $ 6 again, without breaking its original pattern, is remains a buy
(sec. 6)....GOT THAT ? Finding such ideas among the "repeats" in sec. (3),
iliustrates this helpful item....This is very simple: All suggested stocks
remain actionable when/if they remain/return to original prices, in the future,
provided their original chart pattern is still intact....period.
Remember, the time length of the full
trip from stage 1 through 7, can be one year, or ten years, or 100 years, etc.,
depending on one's desired perspective....A stock can be in one stage S.T., and
another stage L.T. But one cannot have "everything", that is, we try not to
turn a S.T. position into a L.T. position, and we never even try for "potential
10-baggers over several years"....One must decide beforehand, whether one expects
a S.T. trade or a L.T. investment....But at least knowing the normal, usual
characteristics of each sequential stage, puts us way ahead of "the 95 %". I use
1-year and 2-year charts, period, because we seek 1-2-3-4-month patterns, holds,
and moves, and NOT overnite, nor daily nor intraweek moves. Trade less, make
more, lower stress, free-up time, etc.
IMPORTANT: people keep
trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep
saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time...."just get close(r)", and do
everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL
chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my
webpage and on the front of every Booklet, then adding the "sentiment" nuances of
each stage.
As I keep reiterating, It
is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some" stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in
depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news seems so bad" but their
patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut losses), than to never do
that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut
losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB
lows, when one properly Diversifies, and stays with it....and, to, always, 2) TRY
at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only,
when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying
properly, with close stops....
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more
INDEPENDENTLY of any/all "external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly
believe....one does Not "need" "events" to happen, in order to exploit normal,
probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the
strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is
intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness"
in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become
"sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too
late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into NON-positiveness, into "fear", when
the patterns are intact, right ? Also, buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can
be viewed as just plain intelligent/logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or
"protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March '98 tops,
and July '98 tops, and drops, have proven that yet again.
I also assume you have read the "Significant
Disclaimers" paragraph, under my main webpage logo....I cannot infer that my
future performance will always match my excellent, real, actual past track
records, as each person will, obviously, have differing experiences with my
output, and/or do/not do various things, properly/improperly, etc. Thanks for
understanding. It is also assumed that you actually "VIEW" 1-and-2-year past
Charts of stocks, with their 200 DMA's, BEFORE you "do" anything for real, and
that you are aware of their recent highs/lows, for stops price levels, and
past/future resistance/support. I am also assuming you have learned to eliminate
the potentially hindering emotional "stuff" from the
decision-making/stock-choosing side of your brain....