1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

As I mentioned, while others are just beginning to consider the longside again, I see many EVB's coming into overhead resistance already, too-quick bounces, as you habve been taught to watch for....initial bounces rarely stick, so being careful, vs. super-bullish, at least not yet....

After first hour or two, last Fri., I already had a real strong urge to lighten up into some 'dead-cat-bounces after previous breakdowns', as I hinted in last NL here, dig ? But I did not sell much, then many pulled back again, rats....what an unusually rare period for us....I also notice, in Barrons, the 'CBOE volatility index' of Options activity, was prety correctly low (and bearish), Dec. 1999, high and bullish in April/May '00, low and bearish Sept. '00, and is now, again, high, and potentially bullish, near recent lows, dig ? ....one simple chart helping....and, as I mentioned earlier watching the NYSE cumulative A/D line, brokedown below support the first week of Oct., so a real mess lately, but watching recent lows EVB's and bases, in again, a 'split' market....

recent BW mag., article, "Cancel the Boxster, my Portfolio's been Pummeled", says, as I was first (and a bit early) to predict herein, and on TV, last year: that, with this recent, second -50 % drops in many Internet, Tech, NASDAQ stocks, in which even 'lucky yuppies' who did not get hurt before, will surely have been hurt recently, financially....BW actually showed decent chart since 1/98, showing PG relationship between NASDAQ movements and retail sales, hmmmm.....

A reasonable technical analyst guy, Richard Stutmeier, on CNBC, Mon., 12:25, while he should have been more predictive, did point how, as I said, that recent oversold readings were as good at it has gotten the last 20 years, for S.T. lows....stochastics, etc....like that in mid-1998, dig ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) seing so many 'old-time big-name stocks get hammered in 2000, like, CC, XRX, PBY, KM, JCP, and all the Telecoms, etc., I just laugh, because millions of overpaid ind. people, and investors, haven't had a clue about them, chart-wise....meanwhile, note the base on HON, we just missed it....would have been anothwr takeover for us.... 2) recent BW mag., article, "FInancial Services stocks: no ordinary downturn", current slump hurting IPO's and could cause layoffs....a palpable hit....banks tighten up, tougher terms on business loans....debt gets pricier, corp. bond spreads over treasuries increase....IPO's dry up....kiss good-bye to the days of free-flowing, cheap money...." Of course, they only say that AFTER nice stock drops only I predicted herein....now, of course, I see pullbacks-after-breakouts, which I also was the first/only to predict rises before, providing S.T. pops, just as THEY get bearish, as usual, dig ? oh, and recent Barrons, also full-page article warning, "are Banks' rising problem loans a sign of something worse to come ?"

3) and, as expected, Oil Service stocks, reporting earnings Today, Tue., all down off S.T. rolling tops, yes ? and you missed tham again ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) a truly rare, scentient comment by CNBC's Maria Bartiromo, Fri. 11;23, interviewing analysts who were dead wrong liking/holding Internet stocks from their obvious parabolic tops, saying, (I am paraphrasing here, I say it better than she does, as I do everything else trading-wise), "wait a minute....at their top, you were all saying with these stocks, fundamentals don't/didn't matter....now, only after big drops you lost money during, now you are zeroing in on fundamentals....what gives ?" Excellent point, M.B., exactly what I always taught in my "PSYCLE", happens at this stage....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) current Barrons, big article questioning Cosco's accounting methoiods, which they saym have overstated their safety and quality, in a bearish treatise....saying, if they valued certain items properly, CSCO would look worse to fundamentalists....but, of course, again, as usual, they only come out with this negative piece, AFTER their stock has fallen from 80 to 50 or so, dig ? ....2) Barrons, recent, "DELL faces a hefty liability stemming from heavy sales of Put options on their stock, from 46, to, recently, 29, they might owe close to $ 2 bill. to buy back Puts previously sold when stock was higher...." To which I say, hah, hah, they should have had ME as their broker, ay ? ....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) 11/1 (written 10/15) Bottom Line Personal NL, Elaine (dont get me started) Garzarelli, really likes Bonds, Home-related (CTX 34, MAS 19), Financial (ALL 34, BAC 54, JP 68), Food/Rest. (CAG 20, DRI. 21, MCD 30), Energy (CHV 87, OXY 22)....we shall see, check back later.... 2) I love it, while MRCH is a once-in-a-career drop, MER, who before Tues. had a price target of $ 30. on it, only now at $ 5., comes out with an "avoid" recommendation on it....thanks, guys....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) well, as I said before herein, when/if this one comes true, I will, again, have been the forst/only to have predicted: recent BW mag., "A liquidity crisis is pushing Asia to the wall", intimates that their fiscal problems are not over....hey, I just recently mentioned they have some huge coming bankruptcies among their Insur. co's, so watch for more propblems forward....their Semi. stocks just fell -50 % , yes ? ....2) in an allied item, same BW issue, "the US economy's perfect storm ? the risk of a hard economic landing is rising", lists several items which they warn about, that were not around a while ago....

3) recent BW mag., interesting article, "Philanthropy with a Woman's touch", states what I have thought all along: that women donate differently than men....women prefer new projects to existing causes, specific projects vs. unrestricted gifts, gravtate to scholarships and social programs, prefer to be opart of larger campaigns vs. making isolated bequests, want continual updates and are nota s comfortable with mutli-year pledges as men ar, are more likely to volunteer their time, and do not tend to 'match' other contributions, as much as men do....yet, women have controlled over 50 % of all assets here, for decades....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....