1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) the NASDAQ index looks like it can get over recent 1750 recovery high.... 2) neat, gave ya several puttable Drug stocks righ tfrom highs, gotta have been the first and only guy nationally to do so....so what else is new.... 3) and, as expected depressed Techs starting to catch-up (re-read my IGR booklet), and outperform again.... 4) do not miss taking advantage of the rolling tops in extended Tobacco and Health-orienteds herein still coming.... 5) and, a good sign for our Puts on UNH ?: analyst on CNBC from UBS Warburg, 8:33, said - are you ready for this ? - "we are hard-pressed to find ANYTHING negative about this company looking forward"....ergo, I say, 'get 'yer puts, your red-hot puts', dig ? ....6) note, with LMT receiving evidently, "the largest multi-hundred-million order for warplanes in USA history", it's stock not breaking out/up further, dig ? actually, it had not really risen all that much the last 12 months, from 31 to 50, for a "lead-pipe-cinch, no-risk, can-never-fall-again-because-of-the-WTC-war" stock, etc., is it....re-read my "gule War" treatise for I.G.R., contrarily trading for profit potentials....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) had not read anything of value from Tom (dgms) Peetruno, but 10/22 L.A.T. front-page headline, "Investors exploring uncharted territory", was a farce, totally useless, when they could have had me, but I digress....saying that some analysts (who, of course, have missed the EZ longside gains recently) are now asking whether the rally has already gone too far too fast (just as they have after every EVB bounce going back decades, right ?), are still advising their clients to 'play it safe'....good...they will miss the 'next rise after pb's', as well, yes ? leaving more Gains for us, each phase....
Analysts saying things like, "fundamentals are worse now than at their WTC lows", and, "I ask whether the market overreacted in both directions" (of course, you dummy, that's why I we have been so good at such times, taking advantage of the 'overshoots' through the decades).... 2) more potential good sentiment news, as, Tue., CNBC finally (and Forbes, etc.) are pushing/publicizing Bonds as "an investment to now consider", get it ? gee, guys, y'all hated them at high-I.R. lows, yes ? the pattern rarely changes....so fade them, always.... 3) and, Friday, all the idiot analysts who, as usual, fell in love with stocks like ENE at parabolic, normal over-reported in stage 4 stocks in that I.G., when I seemingly alone was bearish (a bit early, initially, but ultimately, as usual, very correct) from their highs herein for you (dgms), are now saying, "Enron's position as leader is gone forever", get it ? watch for an EVB they will also miss, and we will likely catch, for ENE< and others....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) I ma hearing such BS claptrap from everyone else out there on Media, about 'why' techs are rising (further) ....citing the exact opposite of their incorrect fundamental reasons they gave for being afraid to buy these same stocks when we did around 9/21, dig ? the pattern rarely changes....'nuff said....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) Mr. Schaeffer has goen silent recently.... except to point out obviuosly, some indexexs getting up towards their MA's, which I pointed out a while ago here....he has not given out any exploitable specific ideas in a long time.... 2) at least on analyst on CNBC, Thu. 12:48, admitted, "I dont get it....news was great earlier 2001, and stocks tanked...then, news was terrible in Sept., and stocks rise...." hence, my opinion of 'the 95%', and, why my concepts do so well so often, contrarily....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, 7 more Longs, and, 3 more Puts, wow:
bal. stk.on.mgn. UTSI (13 to 22+) for VQ 300% Gain....all stk.on.mgn. ZIXI (5 to 9+) for VVVVQ 150% G....1/2 pos. calls AAPL (14+ to 19+) for VQ 175% G....1/2 pos. calls CDIS (16 to 20) for VQ 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. TKLC (12+ to 20+) for 111% G....bal. puts HCA (47 to 36+) for Q 111% G....all puts KG (45 to 28-) for Q 175% G....all puts CMX (17+ to 13+) for VQ 90% G....at least 1/2 pos. calls KYO (60 to 77) for VQ 135% G....all calls ZBRA (37 to 48) for Q 111% G....
and/but, longs, ANEN, WIN, AVL, 2nd pos. PVN, and, puts, ATRX, WLP, PNRA, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio (well, perhaps a little more than usual, with recent rare events)....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. CHRS @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. EMT @ 2 3/4, 1/2 pos. GEG @ 14-, 1/3 pos. KLM @ , 1/2 pos. LIN @ 18+, 1/3 pos. NWAC @ 12+, 1/2 pos. OO @ 10 1/2, 1/2 pos. Q @ 16+, 1/2 pos. TCP @ 5.1, 1/2 pos. TEE @ 16, 1/2 pos. ZQK @ 12+, 1/3 pos. RRC @ 4+, IDXC @ 9+, 1/2 pos. BLS @ 36+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): 1/3 pos. ATPG @ 6++, 1/3 pos. CAL @ 16+, 1/2 pos. CPB @ 27+, 1/2 pos. RCL @ 8 1/2, 1/2 pos. LWIN @ 14--, AVGN @ 9++, 1/2 pos. ATPG @ 6++, 1/2 pos. INET @ 9++, 1/2 pos. MXT @ 20++, 1/3 pos. ENTG @ 7, 1/3 pos. WCOM @ 12-, 1/3 pos. FSII. @ 7.66, 1/3 pos. CTHR @ 0.90, 1/2 pos. HMT @ 6 1/2, 1/3 pos. USG @ 3+, UCFC @ 7-, 1/2 pos. PCTI @ 6++, 1/3 pos. DTPI. @ 9, PSEM @ 13-, 1/2 pos. SCS @ 12-, TCC @ 9+, SPCT @ 9- ?, 1/2 pos. MODT @ 7+, JNY @ 24+, 1/2 pos. LTBG @ 8++, VIRL @ 9+, STXN @ 6-, 1/4 pos. VGZ @ 0.075, VRA @ 1 1/8, TIE @ 3-, UTHR @ 9-...."buy (only) low", right ?
obviously, after having given out many Q, L, big % winners for you lately, current long buy list not quite as exciting, dig ?
** Important: took, UAL, CEL, MTZ, KRC, CMOS, NTAP, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones):
1/2 pos. ACE @ 37+, 1/2 pos. APU @ 24,
"Repeats": HSY @ 64++, GNCMA @ 12, 1/2 pos. PDCO @ 37+, 1/2 pos. STZ @ 44+, AMN @ 70, 1/2 pos. FDO @ 30, FHCC @ 28, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26, MATR @ 26-, 1/2 pos. NHP @ 20+, 1/2 pos. RWT @ 25+, 1/2 pos. SPH @ 28-, 1/2 pos. TJX @ 36-, DRMD @ 22+, 1/2 pos. UNH @ 69, 1/2 pos. MO @ 51-, IART @ 30, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 35,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, UDR ?, AMHC, PNRA, BCS ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sectionsGYMB,
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", NXTL, LTXX, CVG, MTF, TCP, HYSL, SCI, CREE, TECH, SOI, FCEL, CMOS, AEIS, TMB, PXLW, NYFX, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, , as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
ZIXI. 9.73 up 4.73 (S), USG 4.75 up 1.59, JNIC 8.96 up 1.66, PWAV 16.43 up 3.25, EMC 13.98 up 2.44, ZBRA 48 up 8 (S), VVTV 15.50 up 2.00, INET 10.11 up 1.08, CDIS 23.31 up 3.61, UTSI. 22.97 up 2.79 (S), Q. 17.65 up 1.65, GLBL 7.30 up 1.12, TIE 3.34 up 0.30, PCTI. 7.44 up 0.64, LWIN 16.16 up 1.61, TCP 5.55 up 0.55, CNXT 11.76 up 1.02, OO. 11.55 up 1.13, PWAV 15.18 up 2.00, ATPG 7.14 up 0.54, RCL 8.32 (B), 8.99, ATMI. 20.37 up 1.92, FSII. 8.17 up 0.56, DNR 8.72 up 0.50, X. 15.67 up 1.07, VIRL 10.10 up, TG 19.1 up 1.0, NWAC 13.42 up 1.27, ZQK 13.20 up 1, BLS 38 up 1 5/8, ANF 22.53, TEE 16.34 up 0.54, LU 7.00 up 0.62, WCOM 13.51 up 1.64, IDXC 9.68 up 0.55, ENTG 6.86 (B), 8.10, SUNW 10.20 up 1.40, LTBG 9.99 up 1.17, AGU 9.94 up, CCE 19.30 up 1.30, LIN 19 up 1, AAPL 19.25, CHL 15.95, EMC 13.75, CASY 12.75, DSS 9.14, the NASDAQ 1775 up, the DJIA 9500+, up/higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more bounces after pullbacks:
obviously, after V.S.T. tops, got many tech. pb's....PSEM 14.25 up 1.55, AGU 9.81 up 0.63, HOFF 7.48, 6.55, 7.36, AOL 33.43 up, DNR 7.96, 8.17, HOT 23.84 up 1.34, VVTV 13 1/4 dn 2, CLTK 12.75 up, INET 9.66, KYO 72, AES 12 3/4, 14 1/4, OO. 11, DSS 8.7, KEYN 7.5, JNIC 8.25....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
DTPI. 10.05 up 1.05, XRX 6 1/2, FON 18.80, 20.31, TIE (B) 2.90, 3.19, SPCT 8 3/4, 9 1/4, UTHR, RADS, CNXT, DSS, ANF 20.15 dn, LNUX, KANA, VGZ, CSCO, CHINA, MCD 28.75 up 1.05, UAL, CDIS, RDA, TCC, NT 5.84, 6.26, VSH, CATZ, and most all Techs must follow through....was/are/were FON, MIR 21-30, ANEN, more 'fobd's ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
still more decent drops, yes ?
HCA -4 (S), KG -4 (S), UNH -2, ACE -2, IART -1 1/2, DRMD -1, TXU -1, GNCMA, AOT, MATR, lower, some further, since last NL here....and, ENE 15, even lower still, hah....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ? not too much chance of that as of 9/21, ay ?):
some Depressed, Cable, Brokers, Agriculture-oriented, Telecom, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
GLW, SONS, CLRS ?, Q, SBC, to, GADZ, KANA, CTHR, HMT, SPNC, THDO, TRID, FNSR, PACW, RCL, MXT, LIN, GTW/HWP/CPQ, XRX nah, LLY, PBR, TTN ?, TBH, AOL, CNH ?, W, EMT, MTF, ZQK, OO, TCP, TG, AEIS, AVGN, HSII, JDEC, IDXC, MERX, NUAN, SAPE, PXLW, TTEC, STOR, INET, ATPG ?, TORC, FCEL, to, ACLA, XOMA, ALXN, HYSL, LWIN, MONE, MCRS, NXTL, PCTI, STLD, SPCT, TQNT, ULCM, CPB, JNY, TRB, OMM, PRM, USG, WWF, GEG, MTF, EMC, UIS, SCS, TCC, ENER, FSII, ELON, NTAP, QTRN, RFMD, TIBX, UCFC, CVAS, CHRS, ZOMX, MODT, SIVB, VVTV, SGI, TCC, BLS, SFA, NT, SIVB, CVG, X, SUNW, CASY, CLTK, ENTG, RVST, TIE, WCOM, ADI, PSEM, CNXT, LTBG, VIRL, GT, RDA, WFII, DY, TFS eh, WCG, SOI, FAF, AV, LOR, DNR, CATZ, as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy Svcs. again as EVB's ? FCEL, GLBL, RRC, CDIS, DNR, AES, GEG, ATPG, ENER, PDE, etc.
and, of course, gotta have one Airline near recent lows, with close stop, like, AWA, CAL, DAL, NWAC, AMR, FLYR, KLM, etc., anyway ? but, of course, they likely will already br up, before 'the 95 %' wrere even aware, as usual, yes ?
and, note, i like Energies AND Airlines, simultaneously, rare, but just proves my "PSYCLE sm" even more, yes ? re-read my Booklets....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, ACE, BRL, UDS, HRB, DRI. ?, BCS, APU, MOVI. ?, to, BLL, AMN, CBE, STZ, NDE, FDC, RWT, HB, TOO, HUB.B, APPB, DORL, MATR, THOR, FULL, DORL, FHCC, MATR, PDCO, SRCL, ABK, STZ, GPI, FDO, TJX, FBC, TXU, NDE, WLP, JEF ?, SPH, NHP, MAA, UNH, NAFC, AOT, LDR, PLB, MO, CMX, AMHC, UOPX, SNV, RJR, ACDO, SFG, IVC, AMSG, ATRX, ENZN, LIZ, TALX, BBY, PLNR, STU, CHS, ITT, CHD ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS.e;tiEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES