Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in mid-April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification), dated: 9:30 am, PST, Friday, Oct. 27, 2000

Important Note: this "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD and SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of the brokerage firm with which I am currently associated....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Hey, cool, once again, I among the very few, who is actually giving out both, Put gains, and Longside gains, here, even given recently weirdness and upset and some ridiculous QSL's.... again showing the power and value of a great concept, not quitting prematurely, and staying with it, and as you have been taught, buying/adding money to portfolios after rough periods....

as I said, after first hour or two, last Fri., I already had a real strong urge to lighten up into some 'dead-cat-bounces after previous breakdowns', as I hinted in last NL here, for VVVQ 'scalp longside gains' (and (to sell some scalp Puts for gains), dig ? But I did not get to sell as much longside as I wished, then many pulled back again, rats....what an unusually rare period for us....but plenty of long buys remain, below, which will probably turn out to be the most valuable thing to do....and, also, we are soon coming into favorable seasonality anyway, forward, yes ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) as expected, Oil Service stocks, reporting earnings Today, Tue., all down more, off S.T. rolling tops, I was first/only to have predicted, yes ? and you missed tham again ? ....2) and, the T-bond hit higher, 102. Monday, B4 pulling back.... 3) also notice continued relative predicted-here-first strength in Railroad stocks again.... 4) and still watching soem Biotechs longside....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) all day Tues., CNBC reported, "paper stocks, on a roll", bouncing....oy.... 2) recall when I mentioned herein, that the analysts sais, that "HMO stocks always rise early each year, then fade the second half of each year " ? well, Thu., CNBC, 8 am, Pisani mentioned how "they continue stronger as expected...." Interesting, huh....and they get paid for such drivel and deception....meanwhile, very late/high, as usual, CNBC interviewed pres. of WLP and OXHP up here....where were they when I liked the Health stocks, way lower, herein, for you ? the pattern rarely changes....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) note more Semis, like NSM, down big, even as they report much higher eps....and, Wed., 8:00 am, the CNBC idiots actually said, "even VERT, which beat the street on eps, is down...." , which is funny and stupid, since VERT stock has RISEN from 20-34 recently....and, NT also beat-the-street eps, and still got whacked big-time....ditto, VRSN, Thu., hah, hah....NO 'links'....next....

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) The Telecom Analyst NL, now hates COVD, and loves AKAM, so we shall see ....

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) every month the L.A.T. does a 'financial makeover' for a local person (don;'t getme started), and, their recent couple were age 38 super-yuppies, complaining that they have 'only' been earning $ 300,000 a year, and rising, but have - get this - absolutely NO money, no retirement accounts of any kind, no savings, nothing ! oh, boo-hoo, huh....my friends here in Orange County, Calif., tell me there are tons of similar people out here....is it that way where you live as well ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

all puts AMCC (210 to 130) for VVVQ 150% G....all puts GLW (109 to 69+) for VVVVQ 125% G....all puts EXAR (61 to 42-) for VQ 125% G....bal. calls NITE (26+ to 32) for Q 90% G....bal. calls INTC (35 to 44+) for VVVQ 100% G....bal. puts CPN (103 to 79) for Q 80% G....all puts ENE (90+ to 75+) for VQ 66% G....1/2 pos. calls VOD (34+ to 41-) for VVQ 80% G....bal. calls CCU (45 to 56-) for VVQ % G....bal. calls NITE (26+ to 32+) for % G....all puts EMC (102+ to 82-) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. puts SFY (41+ to 31++) for VVVQ % G....bal. puts ADRX (90- to 66+) for Q % G....all puts JNPR (240 to 163) for VVVQ % G....1/2 pos. puts FLEX (42 to 32) for VVQ % G....at least 1/2 pos. puts XOI (548 to 508) for VVVQ % G....

and/but, longs, PDG, FFA ?, ASA, K., BYD, AIR, PB, TMG, and, puts, IMPH, SRNA, CHKP, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio, except recently perhaps.... which, again, normally presages much better performance forward, yes ?

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

BKC ny, 1/2 pos. DDR @ 12, 1/2 pos. DLTK ?, 1/2 pos. FCM @ 0.625 ?, 1/2 pos. GENE @ 14, 1/2 pos. GLGC @ 20-, IFMX @ 3 3/4, 1/2 pos. LGTO @ 9+ ?, LNUX @ 27, 1/2 pos. MDS @ 14-, MWY @ 6 1/4, 1/2 pos. NSC @ 12+, REV @ 6.06, 1/2 pos. SKS @ 9-, SOL @ 4,

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4, AAPL @ 19, ADIC @ 11++, AII. @ 8, AM @ 16++, AN @ 5 3/4, BGO @ 0.405, BGP @ 13-, BKS @ 17-, BNP @ 8, CIT @ 13+, CN @ 4, CSCQ @ 3+, CRDS @ 5++, DG @ 15, DL @ 10, DPH @ 14-, ENN @ 6+, FFA no ?, FMT @ 3 3/16, GLT @ 10, GRA @ 3 3/8, HDG @ 1.00, HLIT @ 11-, IHK @ 1-, LBRT @ 20, LU @ 20+, MDS @ 13++, MOT @ 20++, OCN @ 5.47, ORB @ 7 3/4, PAP @ 1.15, PGA @ 2.43, PKS @ 14+, STEI. @ 2-, USU @ 4 1/8, VIXL @ 4 1/2, WH @ 11...."buy (only) low", right ?

** Important: took, NNN, ROH, MLS, TMPW, ARJ, DRTN, DCX, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops: alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. AMCC @ 217, AZA @ 86+, 1/2 pos. DDIC @ 45-, 1/2 pos. ESRX @ 78, EXPD @ 48++, 1/2 pos. FLEX @ 43-, 1/2 pos. GLW @ 109, IPL @ 23+, 1/2 pos. IVX @ 47+, 1/2 pos. MMCN @ 133+, 1/2 pos. MTG @ 64-, 1/2 pos. PWER @ 88, 1/2 pos. SANM @ 119, 1/2 pos. VRTX @ 96+, and the "XOI" amex.oil.index @ 540,

"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') COGN @ 43-, EMC @ 100, EXAR @ 59, ITWO @ 190+, JNPR @ 240+, KMI. @ 40-, NBL @ 42-, OAT @ 79++, PNK @ 22+,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, LH, MANH, SUNW, PE, UCM, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", AFFX, MCOM, NCI, NSI, REY, SRM, CEL, HON, BTY, FBR, TSG, NWK, USB, HTV, CCL, PGA, SKS, BOW, NCX, EWB, BTC, CBE, ANAD, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, SUPX, FCEL, ASGN, POG, DGX, UNT, GUC, SUNW, PLXS, MCDT, BRCM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
still giving you plenty more nice, mostly Tech. Winners/Risers....CA 31 up 7 1/2, IHK 1.31 up 0.31, PGA 3.06 up 0.69, CIT 16.37 up 1.81, GLGC 23 7/8 up 4 1/8, VIXL 6.06 up 1.91, CVD 9 1/8 up 1 5/8, DLX 22 1/4 up 1 7/8, ODP 7.50 up 1.25, GIGA 8.56 up 0.75, FILE 26 up 3.37, UNP 38 7/8, 43 1/2, LEA 24.81 up 3, GENE 15 5/8 up 1 5/8, AAPL 20.56 up 1.69, PRGN 24 up 2,

more: LNUX 29 up 2, INTC 47 up 2 3/4, DL 10.81 up 0.87, NSC 13.06 up 0.87, UB 20 up 1 3/4, CPB 28.68 up 2.37, MSTR 27.43 up 1.62, PKS 14.93, INTC 45, LBRT 26 1/4, VOD 41 3/4, UIS 12.56 up 0.87, MOT 24 1/2, WH 12.18, N. 15 1/4, IIT 7 7/8, IFMX 4, CSX 23 1/8, BWL/A 8 3/8, higher, since last time here....and the March T-bond hit 102, higher still....and, HNCS 20, HRC 13-, FFD 13, WIN 17+, even higher still....and, BGP, hit its 200 DMA....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
MSTR 21, 27+, 24+, VIXL 4 1/2, NITE 30 1/2, 32 1/2 (S), BKS 18.43 up 1 3/4, LU 23 1/2, 20 1/2, USU 4 1/2, GIGA 7 1/8, 6 1/4, 7, NTLI. (NLI) 42 5/8, 40, 44, 39, PRGN 22 1/2, 23 3/4, 21 1/2, F. 23 5/8, 24 1/2, AM, CSCQ, OHI, ADIC 11 5/8, USB 21.56, PMTC 12 5/8 up 1, CCU 50-, 56 (S), AFWY 15 7/8, JWN, EMA, ORB 7 3/4, LBRT 20.18, CRDS 7.18, 6, 6.81, 5.62, VOD 39-, GY, CN, MLG, HA, DL 10.06, ALI. 2, 2 1/4, MOT, GRA 3 3/8, BGP 13.06, CVD 7 3/8, 8.68, BKS 17 7/8 up 1 1/4, OHI, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) CHINA 10.93 up 1.12, AAPL 18-, MRCH 12 1/2,14 5/8, 4 3/4 (unbelieveable, this kind of additional drop never happened 2 me B4), CMH, FMT, INTC 45+, IHK 0.93, HLIT 12, RAD 2.43, LBRT 19 7/8, STEI, FFA, PMTC, MLG, AM, CN, DL, ASL, AU, BTO....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out:
lots more nice drops for you: JNPR -89, AMCC -92 (S), MMCN -45, GLW -32 (S), ITWO -22, +6, -25, SANM -29, MMCN -18, EXAR -17 (S), PWER -13, SFY -10 (sow), DDIC -10, EMC -4, +10, -13 (S), FLEX -11, VRTX -9 1/2, AZA -8, PWER -8, JNJ -6 1/2, NVDA -5 1/2 (S), RKY +1, -5 1/2, FS -4 1/2 (S), MTG -4, ENE +3, -8 1/2 (S), RKY -4 3/8, EPG -4, ADRX +11, -15 (S), BHI. -5, EXPD -3 1/2, PE -3, IVX -3, DV -2 (S), OAT -2 1/2, ENZN -2 1/2, MTG -2 3/4, TOT -2 1/2, SZA -3 1/4, KMI. -2, SKYW -2, GE -1 1/2 (S), CIN -2, HSY -1, ESRX -1, BXP, CBL -1, IPL -1, the XOI. -39, lower, since last NL here....

and, EXAR, ENE, AMCC, EMC, SUNW, hit or approached their 200 DMA....and, JDSU 62, even lower still....even as MSDW continues to rate it a'buy/hold', from $ 150. yet....no stops for them, ay ?

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: JNPR +41, -16, SANM +5, DDIC +6, -2 1/8, PWER +1 1/2, IVX +1, BRL, NBL -2 1/2, +1 1/2, -2, SANM +4, COGN -3, +4, -2, GR +2, AZA +2 1/2, KMI. +2 1/2, -2, +1 3/4, ITWO +7, CIN +1, OAT +2 3/4, VRTS +1 1/2, FLEX +2, MTG +2 1/2, SZA +1 3/4, HSY +2 1/2, JNJ +3....was CHKP a 'fobo' ? this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, DDR, MLS ?, BNP, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, HRP, JDN, AII, ARJ, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (BD, AAI, F, DPH, AFWY, AN, NSC, CSX, PX, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, BMG, SWC, BGO, CBJ, N, AKS, etc.), Food-related (FFA, WH, IHK, BLM, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def. (LEA, ORB), Leisure/Travel/Toys (MAT, CCL, PKS, MWY, TSG), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (CIT, NITE, FGH, UB, XRX, CNC, SVRN, USB)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? WCOM, WSTL, WCII, LU, MOT, MWL, FON, CEL, BTY, etc., as EVB's, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, GRA),
also, Retail (BKS, BGP, DG, ODP, MAY, SKS, JWN, CLE), and some
Health-relateds (SOL, LTC, SRV, GENE, GLGC, PHSY ny)
and, of course, the many 'busted Techs' just below....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (many depr. Techs getting bounces already, so we do not 'pay up') added, IFMX, LGTO, CBE, FBN, DLX, API, ECO, RCG, FCM, MXR, BKC, CSDS, PLL, EWB, FGH, FBR, IFS, MLS ?, NCI, NWK, NSI, NCX, XLA, BMCS, IIT, PHI, JWL, MU ?, to, AAPL, REV, GRT, VIXL, APN, EMA, DGTC, STSA, WH, MZ, DDR ?, BTC ?, SVI, ADIC, LOJN, CVD, LBRT, PRGN, UIS, ATI, CRDS, DLTK, BTX ?, BAL, PLB, PLUG, LNUX, SQNM, AIB, CTXS, TEC, OBJX, FSW, RBC, JS ?, FBN, PHC, BOW, JBM, MDG, CTO, MAT, DL, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....

'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, MLS, JDN....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, to,

(repeats) BRCM, SSTI, MTG, BSC, XLNX, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, CB, IPL, IVX, ESRX, EXPD, FHCC, COF, MMCN, MANU, MANH, PLXS, VRTX, LLTC, FPC, HP, JNJ, NBL, OAT, NE, CIN, GUC, ELN, EPG, HBC, KMI, HDI, PMI, OAT, PHA, SZA, UNT, WAG, MKL, PNK, ADVS, BELM, APWR, CHCS, IMPH, IMGN, NEWP, SKYW, VRTS, OSIP, CGP, AVE, BXP, D, HSY, BRCM, MRX, COGN, MXIM, GLW, MLNM, NMSS, CHKP, BLDP, IWOV, MVSN, EXTR, CBL, APH, PLXS, ARBA, AUDC, from recent past NL's....some Semis declibned to their initial downside levels, already....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES