1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) I meant to say this last time here, but I went a little bullish on 'cash Nat. Gas', under $ 3, finally....and, more proof of my "PSYCLE sm" opinion of 'insider actions', as ENE evidently not only bt. a ton of their stock back near its high (proving once again, corp. CEO's are no more intelligent nor knowledgable than others, at timing/predicting their future stock prices, but also, they lied to shareholders about it, proving many corp. guys remain not so wonderfully nice....stay with MY pattern-recognition and sentiment patterns, foremost, beats all other approaches more often than any fundamentals, ay ? ....2) I will take creadit for being the only and first to have given out depressed Biotechs and Oil Service and Brazil stocks from recent lows herein, if you missed them, I again ask, why ? ....2) and, might some Housing/Building stocks be scalps soon ? all those who loved them at tops when I called tops, now dislike them, again, after drops, as usual, yes ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) recent Barroins asked, "will IT spending ever return to pre-2000 levels ?", is another good sign of L.T. bottom in those stocks, Sept., ay ? 2) and several recent letters-t-the-editor of Barrons state their "ever-increasing pessimism", with which I concur....asking, "will you guys ever get even moderately positive on America ?", says a lot for my "PSYCLE's" p.o.v. of Media, which is vastly superior.... 3) actually interesting column from Tom P. at L.A.T. recently, "write-off mania', correctly pointing out my long-held opinion in my teachings/booklets, about how companies mess around with accounting BS, etc. showed chart back to 1987, showing this years total w/o's by corp.'s is beating all-time once-in-a-lifetime level of w/o's,
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) an excellent article Barrons 10/22 T. Donlan cited how, too many employees still retain too much of their company's stock in their retirement plans (re-read my vast past comments on that, elsewhere), exampling PRD, BS, WU, GT, etc., where, now, their retirement monies are toast....these unsuspecting people don not deserve such a fate, but, then, mine, and other valuable outputs, have been readily available for decades now to have helped thgem p[rotect, yes ? so, they have had no excuse....Writer did say what I have been teaching all along, that, "employees viewed staying in their stock as a test of loyalty" - to which, as you might figure, I say, that's part of the inherent emotional crap which has helped me so much creating and profiting using my "PSYCLE sm"....behaviors and beliefs rarely change....period.....hey, I am still around to help millions of people, if they truly wish to learn....
2) a VG treatise in recent Barrons re: ATT (T), which I say is a buy on pb ahead likely, saying, fundamentally, in a very complicated pot. deal for their ATT canada, and some of ATT's assets themselves, AOL/Comcast, etc. - anyway, 2 independent analysts like T. around 18 (now 16), in poss. spin-offs, etc., my take, sees 14 as L.T. given-out-previously base on T., while both analysts' number est. is worth around $ 23., we shall see....
3) obviously, recent WSJ cited "downgrades of junk-rated companies and bonds pile up", to which I say, well, duh....Moodys downgraded 93, and upgraded 19 recently....among investment0-grade firms, 32 were downgraded and 24 upgraded....the 3rd Q was the 14th straight Q in which Moodys downgrades outpaced upgrades (I predicted this herein 2 years ago, recall), while the record is 19 straight such quarters, 1988-1993 (which is interesting, since I surmised that 1999-2004 might be similar to the 1990-1995 period in some ways, dig ?), and that all airlines except LUV acrry junk bond ratings....last, YTD, 185 issuers have defaulted on $ 76 B. in debt - all of last year, only $ 49 B. defaulted for entire year....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) more good news: Barrons, which did have a "buy Now" over near recent low (rare, already gave my kudos), said, 10/21, "we believe we are in a big, bad, secular bear market", to which I say, hey, Techs already down -75 % and more, and only now you say this ? ....2) perma-bear B. Schaeffer said last week, "after earnings season much lower stock prices coming...." 3) and the respected Steven Leuthold, who went L.T. bearish early, then slightly bullish early 2001, early, just went a bit less bullish.... 3) my L.T. disappointment with 95 % of all others' output, NL's, etc., was proven again since Seppt., as, still, tons of publicized-puzzlingly-when-better-guys-like-me-are-not NL's statements/outputs are put into Barrons, for instance, when no one out there has been giving good, spcific stcok advice for weeks now (except us, and a few others, as usual), citing instead, worthless homilies and 'words' of little of no DAPPV....what a shame, and no help to millions of people - as usual....really pisses me off....if I hear another not-deserving-to-be-publicized economist or market-guy tell us nothing but what already happened which they did not prdict in the first place, again, I will scream....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, more Longs, and, more Puts, wow:
all calls SFA (16+ to 23++) for Q 175% Gain....bal. calls CDIS (16++ to 23-) for Q 150% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. PWAV (10+ to 16) for Q 100% Gain....all calls AAPL (15 to 18++) for Q 90% Gain....bal. calls CCE (15 to 19+) for Q 135% G....1/2 pos. puts CAH (76- to 70++) for VQ 33% G....bal. puts DORL (40 to 34) for VQ 60% G....
and/but, longs, RDA ?!, and, puts, none, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio (well, perhaps a little more than usual, with recent rare events)....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. CCRT @ 6+, 1/2 pos. GTW @ 5+, 1/3 pos. FMC @ 48+, TORC @ 5.4, MONE @ 5.44, 1/2 pos. RRI. @ 15.1, 1/3 pos. WCG @ 1+, 1/3 pos. PDG @ 10 1/2,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): 1/3 pos. CHRS @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. EMT @ 2 3/4, 1/2 pos. GEG @ 14+, 1/3 pos. KLM @ 8+, 1/2 pos. LIN @ 18+, 1/3 pos. NWAC @ 12+, 1/2 pos. TCP @ 5.1, 1/2 pos. TEE @ 15++, 1/3 pos. RRC @ 4+, IDXC @ 9+, 1/3 pos. ATPG @ 6++, 1/3 pos. CAL @ 16+, 1/2 pos. CPB @ 27+, 1/2 pos. RCL @ 8 1/2, 1/2 pos. LWIN @ 14--, AVGN @ 9++, 1/2 pos. ATPG @ 6++, 1/2 pos. INET @ 9++, 1/3 pos. FSII. @ 7.66, 1/3 pos. CTHR @ 0.90, 1/2 pos. HMT @ 6 1/2, UCFC @ 7-, 1/2 pos. PCTI @ 6++, 1/3 pos. DTPI. @ 9, PSEM @ 13-, FON @ 19+, 1/2 pos. SCS @ 12-, TCC @ 9+, SPCT @ 9- ?, 1/2 pos. MODT @ 7+, JNY @ 24+, 1/2 pos. LTBG @ 8++, VIRL @ 9+ ?, STXN @ 6-, 1/4 pos. VGZ @ 0.075, VRA @ 1 1/8, TIE @ 3-, UTHR @ 9-...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, SGI, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ASBC @ 35+, ATAC @ 16, ATVI. @ 40-, DF @ 45+, MOVI. @ 25, 1/2 pos. THQI. @ 54+, 1/2 pos. FBC @ 24, MHK @ 45+, NDC @ 38, FULL @ 53,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. ACE @ 37+, 1/2 pos. APU @ 24, HSY @ 64++, GNCMA @ 12, 1/2 pos. PDCO @ 38-, 1/2 pos. STZ @ 44+, AMN @ 70, 1/2 pos. FDO @ 30, FHCC @ 28, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26, MATR @ 26-, 1/2 pos. NHP @ 20+, 1/2 pos. RWT @ 25+, 1/2 pos. SPH @ 28-, 1/2 pos. TJX @ 36-, DRMD @ 22+, 1/2 pos. UNH @ 69, 1/2 pos. MO @ 51-, IART @ 30, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 35,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, UDR ?, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sectionsGYMB,
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", CVG, GM, CEL, RRC, TR, PLUG, ULCM, SYNP, ENR, MTZ, PSUN, AETH, PVN, PXLW, LLY, SCI, TTN, PME, SGI, BLDP, CSGS, BDAL, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, FCS, BRL, GPI, HRC, STZ, KMX, RMD, THOR, TARO, ALLY, CEFT, SKE, FDC, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns ....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
KLM 9.89 up 1.64, PHSY 18.23 up 2.69, AEIS 21.82 up 3.82, WCG 1.34 up 0.20, CCI. 12.5 up 1.4, WCOM 14.36 up 1.81, MONE 6.31 up 1.01, HOFF 9.10 up 1.24, CDIS 23.14 up 2.77 (S), FSII. 8.6 up 1.0, USG 5.18 up 0.43, GTW 5.98 up 0.73, SPCT 8.73 (B), 9.43, TORC 5.9 up 0.6, DNR 8.79 up 0.72, RCL 9.47 up 0.53, RRI. 15.97 up 1.07, CCE 19.23 (S), GLBL 7.83 up 0.32, CPB 28.15, IDXC 9.90 up 0.74, EMC 14.12 up 1, FMC 49.60 up 1.30, ZQK 13.71, CASY 12.65, PDG 11.08 up 0.51, LIN 19.75, TCP 5.7 up 0.3, NWAC 13.72, DY 13.24, up/higher since last NL here....while, BDAL, ADPT, KO, RKY, given-at-lows-but-just-missed herein, rose even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more bounces after pullbacks:
obviously, after V.S.T. tops, got many tech. pb's....NT 5.70 (B), 6.33, Q. 17.94, 16.66, GT 19.85 up 1.67, DTPI. 9.44, WCOM, ORCL 13.21, MAPS 8.75, KYO 70 dn, LIN 19.1, TCP 5.4, AEIS 20.3, MONE 5.66, CSCO 16.35, USG 4.94, FMC 48.72, EMC 13.43, ENTG 7.55, JNIC 7.6, UCFC, DY 12.86....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
VIRL 9.07, 9.68 ?, DTPI, XRX, FON, SPCT, UTHR, RADS, CNXT, DSS, ANF, LNUX, KANA, VGZ, CSCO, CHINA, TEE 15.58 (B), MCD, UAL, RDA 15.8 (S) ?, TCC, VSH, CATZ, and most all Techs must follow through....
and, AAPL, AFFX, BRCM, HIFN, IMGN, FLSH, MLNM, PWAV, SIVB, MACR, HC, LLY, NOK, TSM, TCM, PT, CHK, RJF, TNL, EOG, ADIC, PTEN, CDIS, BOBJ, IDTI, ZIXI, approached/hit their 200 DMA....also, note, of those, how, CHK, RJF, ADIC, FLSH, IMGN, TCM, NYFX, IDTI, all had 'fobd's', then rose towards 200 DMA, as taught in my materials for decades....Ggood examples to learn from, yes ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
still more decent drops, yes ?
AMN -7, ATVI. -3, THQI. -2, NDC -1 1/4, FDO -1, TJX -1 1/2, ASBC -1, DF -1, ATAC, FBC, FULL, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?
some Depressed, Cable, Brokers, Agriculture-oriented, Telecom, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
GLW, SONS, CLRS ?, Q, SBC, to, GADZ, KANA, CTHR, HMT, SPNC, THDO, TRID, FNSR, PACW, RCL, LIN, GTW, HWP/CPQ, XRX nah, PBR, TTN ?, TBH, AOL, CNH ?, W, EMT, MTF, ZQK, OO, TCP, TG, AEIS, AVGN, HSII, JDEC, IDXC, MERX, NUAN, SAPE, PXLW, TTEC, STOR, INET, ATPG ?, TORC, FCEL, to, ACLA, XOMA, ALXN, HYSL, LWIN, MONE, MCRS, NXTL, PCTI, STLD, SPCT, TQNT, ULCM, CPB, JNY, TRB, OMM ?, PRM, WWF, GEG, MTF, EMC, UIS, SCS, TCC, ENER, FSII, ELON, NTAP, QTRN, RFMD, TIBX, UCFC, CVAS, CHRS, ZOMX, MODT, SIVB, VVTV, SGI, TCC, PVN, BLS, SFA, NT, SIVB, CVG, X, SUNW, CASY, CLTK, ENTG, RVST, TIE, WCOM, PSEM, CNXT, LTBG, VIRL, GT, RDA ?, WFII, DY, TFS eh, WCG, SOI, FAF ?, AV, LOR, DNR, CATZ, as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy Svcs. again as EVB's ? FCEL, GLBL, RRC, CDIS, DNR, AES, GEG, ATPG, ENER, PDE, etc.
and, of course, gotta have one Airline near recent lows, with close stop, like, AWA, CAL, DAL, NWAC, AMR, FLYR, KLM, etc., anyway ? but, of course, they likely will already br up, before 'the 95 %' wrere even aware, as usual, yes ?
and, note, i like Energies AND Airlines, simultaneously, rare, but just proves my "PSYCLE sm" even more, yes ? re-read my Booklets....
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, AMG, KMX, DF, ABC, FBC, COO, NDC, FDC, MHK, RMD, SYK, SKE, ALLY, ATVI, ATAC, BMET, CEFT, IVGN, PECS, SRCL, THQI, TARO, to, ACE, UDS, HRB, DRI. ?, BCS, APU, MOVI, to, BLL, AMN, CBE, STZ, NDE, FDC, RWT, HB, TOO, HUB.B, APPB, DORL, MATR, THOR ?, FULL, DORL, FHCC, MATR, PDCO, SRCL, ABK, STZ, FDO, TJX, FBC, TXU, NDE, WLP, JEF ?, SPH, NHP, MAA, UNH, NAFC, AOT, LDR, PLB, MO, CMX, AMHC, UOPX, SNV, RJR, ACDO, SFG, IVC, AMSG, ATRX, ENZN, LIZ, TALX, BBY, PLNR, STU, CHS, ITT, CHD ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES