1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) I agree with one recent B-firm, Fri. CNBC 11 am, in disliking most extended Biotech stocks, and I added the BTK index, and had already given you some extended Drug and Biotech stocks, as puttable.... 2) note further potential breakdowns and Put Gains for our Oil Services given you first/only herein from recent tops.... 3) with our S.T.-correct buy on the T-bond, 98 to 102 already, recent headline, L.A.T. 10/26, "3-month T-bill rate, highest since Jan. 1991"....again illustrating, as in my "booklet", the value of intra-industry group rotation and open-mindedness, ay ? ....4) note more pops among our we-predicted-here-first-only "cap. goods/trans./equip." I.G.'s.... 5) and, looks like, again, my first-to-foresee-from-lows call on the depressed Retail stocks will come to fruition, several remain buyable not much lower than here, still, yay....see section (3) and (6) below, as usual....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) well duh: L.A.T. 10/26, headline, "Telecom Sector on the Edge", with a box titled, "Trouncing the Telecoms''....oh, so NOW it's negative, but at its high it was super-positive, right ? the pattern rarely changes....so we start to look to buy, yes ? ....2) same L.A.T. headline, "SGold, Silver drop on concerns the Euro has further to fall", in effect, giving 3 items likely to bottom and bounce soon, as 'the 95 %' begin to go super-negative, yes ? ....3) Tom (dont get me started) Petruno, 10/27 L.A.T., hinting his opinion, that PE's of Tech. stocks remain much higher than, say, at 1972's highs - even though many of their stocks are already down -50 % and more, dig ? of course, he only says this, AFTER unpredicted-by-him drops, and, right near what I see as, EVB's, at least S.T., get it ? what a maroon....
4) amazing, CNBC's , Mon. 12:23, actually said, "next up, we'll be looking at some signals the NASDAQ may or may not have been giving people last week...." I'm not kidding....do these people ever listen to what they are saying ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) recent Barrons article is now questioning AMZN's accounting policies, etc. - as usual, only after big stock price drop, dig ? now, think about it: all those overpaid analysts, all but sitting in AMZN's offices - how could they miss such a 'fundamental' item ? ....next....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) L.A.T. 10/15, those two lousy stock-pickers of theirs, loved DOX @ 66, and LEH at 59+, way up off much lower bases.... 2) Alex, Brown upgraded the Papers....at least they did it 'somewhat' near lows, good for them....rare.... 3) 10/30 Multex, interviewed a guy I do respect, Phil Roth, L.T. of MSDW, tech. analyst, who says we are oversold (duh), but still need to see more work, real obvious and disappointing stuff....then he likes, EMC, GLW, SEBL, on my Put list, and, CSCO @ 59, EMLX @ 148, and hates XRX, down here....oy....he used to be so good....but now, likely, just a pawn/shill who is not allowed to say anything much for legal fears, don't get me started....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. puts DVN (82 to 50+) for 150% G....1/2 pos. calls LEA (20+ to 26-) for Q 125% G....all puts PDS (39 to 28) for 100% G....bal. calls CCU (45 to 56-) for VVQ 90% G....bal. puts SFY (41+ to 30+) for VVVQ 111% G....bal. puts FLEX (42 to 32) for VVQ 100% G....1/2 pos. calls UNP (38 to 42++) for 50% G....all puts SZA (51 to 43+) for Q 66% G....all puts BXP (43 to 39) for Q 44% G....all puts BHI (38 to 32+) for 60% G....1/2 pos. CIN (33- to 29) for VQ 55% G....bal. puts SII (85 to 66++) for 90% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. HLIT (10 to 15-) for VVVVVQ 90% G....1/2 pos. calls CPB (24++ to 29) for 60% G ....all puts TOT (79+ to 69) for Q 50% G.... 1/2 pos. puts PWER (84- to 64+) for Q 90% G....all puts BTK index (755 to 690-) for VVVVVQ % G....
and/but, longs, LNUX, AII, FFA ?, and, puts, OAT, MTG, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio, except recently perhaps....which, again, normally presages much better performance forward, yes ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
APN @ 5-, BKC ny, BTC @ 2+, DCN @ 20+, DLTK @ 6, 1/2 pos. FCM @ 0.625, 1/2 pos. JWN @ 15, 1/2 pos. LGTO @ 9, 1/2 pos. MDS @ 13++, 1/2 pos. MU @ 30, 1/2 pos. PLUG ny, 1/2 pos. REY @ 17+, SR @ 12+, 1/2 pos. SVRN @ 6+, 1/2 pos. XLA @ 10+ ?
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4, AAPL @
18+, ADIC @ 11++, AM @ 16++, AN @ 5 3/4, AZC @ 0.875, BGO @ 0.405, BGP @ 13-, BNP @ 8, CN @ 4, CSCQ @ 3+, CRDS @ 5++, DDR @ 12, DG @ 15, DL @ 10, DPH @ 14-, ENN @ 6, FFA no ?, FMT @ 3 3/16, GENE @ 14, GLGC @ 20-, GLT @ 10, GRA @ 3 3/8, HDG @ 1.00, HLIT @ 10, IFMX @ 3 3/4, IHK @ 1-, LBRT @ 19- ?, LU @ 20+, MDS @ 13++, MLG @ 6 1/4, MOT @ 20++, MRCH @ 4+, NOVL @ 8.06, OCN @ 5.47, ORB @ 7 5/8, PAP @ 1.15, PDG @ 8-, PGA @ 2.43, PKS @ 14+, REV @ 6.06, SKS @ 9-, MWY @ 6 1/4, SOL @ 4, STEI. @ 2-, USU @ 4 1/8, VIXL @ 4 1/2, WH @ 11...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list,
before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at
bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): ATSN @ 42+, D. @ 60, HCA @ 41+, MAPS @ 31++, 1/2 pos. THC @ 39++, the BTK biotech index @ 755+,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') EXPD @ 49++, HSY ?, IPL @ 23+, KMI. @ 40-, PNK @ 22+, RKY @ 66-, SANM @ 110+, SKYW @ 50, VRTX @ 96+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, SPC, ADVP, Off
the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately
(also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off
the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look
like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen
nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", CBE, SRR, PER, HPC, HOMS, YELL, MZ, CLE, EMN, USB, CC, TUTS, LDG, SWC, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AMGN, MXIM, MCDT, WPI, ESV, THX, DGX, INRS, MLNM, SANM, CHK, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
HLIT 15 up 5, FCN 0.875 up 0.250, AZC 1.125 up 0.3125, BTC 3.25 up 1.19, DCN 22 3/8 up 2 5/8, SKS 9 3/4 up 1, USU 4.81 up 0.56, NSC 14.31 up 1.18, MU 34.43 up 4.75, VOD 42.25 up 3.16, GLGC 22 1/2 up 1 1/2, F. 27 up 1.82, CX 21.18 up 1.41, CPB 29 1/2 up 1, CIT 18.18 up 1, WH 12.56, PKS 15.81 up 1.50, MWY 6.93 up 0.93, AAPL 19 1/2 up 1, LEA 26.06 up 1.25, UNP 44.81 up 1.31, CSX 24.43 up 1.12, CA 32, FILE 27 5/8 up 1 1/4, AVA 21 5/8, CMH 9 1/2, AN 6.31, WH 13, JWN 16.43, DL 11.31, PLL 20 3/8, DG 15.43, SKS 10, N. 15.31, higher, since last time here....and, STE 15 1/2, PG 77, MO 37-, HPC 18, VZ 56+, even higher still....and, LEA, over its 200 DMA....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
ALI. 1.93, 2.50, ARG 7.31 up 1.31, BKS 19 1/8 up 1 1/2, ABS 23.75 up 1.69, CRDS 5 5/8, 6 1/2, 6, MLG 6.19, 7.31, 6.81, ADIC 11.61, 12.93, 11.93, AM 17.93 up 0.75, MSTR 21, 26, 23, LU 22 1/8 up 2 1/8, GIGA 6.43, DL 11, NOVL 8 5/8 up 5/8, HLIT 13++, PRGN 20, 24, 23, MOT 21 5/8 up 1, AM, CSCQ, OHI, PMTC, LBRT 18.18, GY, CN, HA, GRA, BGP, CVD, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) CHINA, AAPL, MRCH 4.44, 5.44, CMH, FMT, INTC, IHK, RAD, ORB 7 1/2, LBRT, STEI, FFA 20.18, PMTC, MLG, AM, CN, ASL, AU, BTO....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
lots more nice drops for you: BTK index 760, 683 nice (S), PWER -8, +2, VRTX -5, SII. -4 (S), PDS -4 (sow), MAPS -2, THC -2, IVX -1 5/8, HP -1 1/2 (S), HCA -1 1/2, ATSN -2, SFY -1 (S), XOI. -2, BHI. -1 (S), PDS -1 (S), DVN (S), TOT (S), NBL, lower, since last NL here....and, ADRX, IDTI, EXAR, GILD, EXTR, CEI, COF, NBL, CBL, CHK, ENE, approached/hit/below their 200 DMA....and, ADCT 16, SUPX 28-, DGX 84, PPS 35-, QLTI. 46, MIKE 18+, FORR 39, HAL 35, ESV 31, CAM 55, RMBS 43, even lower still....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, DDR, MLS ?, BNP, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, HRP, JDN, AII, ARJ, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (BD, AAI, F, DPH, AFWY, AN, NSC, CSX, PX, DCN, DCX, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, BMG, SWC, BGO, CBJ, N, AKS, etc.), Food-related (FFA, WH, IHK, BLM, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def. (LEA, ORB), Leisure/Travel/Toys (MAT, CCL, PKS, MWY, TSG), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (CIT, NITE, FGH, UB, XRX, CNC, SVRN, USB)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? WCOM, WSTL, WCII, LU, MOT, MWL, FON, CEL, BTY, etc., as EVB's, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, GRA, CCC, ROH),
also, Retail (BKS, BGP, DG, ODP, MAY, SKS, JWN, CLE), and some
Health-relateds (SOL, LTC, SRV, GENE, GLGC, PHSY ny)
and, of course, the many
'busted Techs' just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (many depr. Techs getting bounces
already, so we do not 'pay up') added, BOL, CCE, CDO, CBE, DE, GM, FCS, MTZ, MCD, DCN, MAT, NUE, PPG, PD, ROH, RCL, APN, W, EYE, IFS, VFC, SRR, WCG, AEN, API, BTC, AMC, MXR, OPI, NHR, BND, ACTI. ?, PLUG, SNDK, SCNT, SILCF, TUTS, SCMR, LXK, to, CCC, IFMX, LGTO, CBE, FBN, DLX, API, ECO, RCG, FCM, MXR, BKC, CSDS, PLL, EWB, FGH, FBR, IFS, MLS ?, NCI, NWK, NSI, NCX, XLA, BMCS, IIT, PHI, JWL, MU ?, to, AAPL, REV, GRT, VIXL, APN, EMA, DGTC, STSA, WH, MZ, DDR ?, BTC ?, SVI, ADIC, LOJN, CVD, LBRT, PRGN, UIS, ATI, CRDS, DLTK, BTX ?, BAL, PLB, PLUG, SQNM, AIB, CTXS, TEC, OBJX, FSW, RBC, JS ?, FBN, PHC, BOW, JBM, MDG, CTO, MAT, DL, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP,
MLS, JDN....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, BUD, DUK, HP, EXC, HCA, LH, amex Biotech index, to,
(repeats) BRCM, SSTI, BSC, XLNX, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, CB, IPL, IVX,
ESRX, EXPD, FHCC, COF, MMCN, MANU, MANH, PLXS, VRTX, FPC, JNJ, NE, CIN, GUC, ELN, EPG, HBC, KMI, PMI, PHA, UNT, WAG, MKL, PNK, ADVS, BELM, APWR, CHCS, IMPH, IMGN, NEWP, SKYW, VRTS, OSIP, CGP, AVE, D, HSY, BRCM, MRX, COGN, MXIM, GLW, MLNM, NMSS, CHKP, BLDP, IWOV, MVSN, CBL, APH, PLXS, ARBA, AUDC, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already
down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all
Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and
most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above
their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES