1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) we are very proud of, as usual, being the first and only, to have given out the depressed Trans., Rails, stocks, right from bottoms, up nicely, and, still, NO one else out there likes them, yet....of course, the moment they begin to like them, well, you'll know what to do then, ay ? finally, Thu., CNBC mentioned they are THE best-performing I.G. so far in 2000....even with "higher Energy costs/prices to them", interesting, huh ? NO 'links' ....2) and, as expected, the March T-bond is pulling back, under 100 again.... 3) also note pops among the I-was-again-the-first-and-only-to-give-out-from-lows, truly depressed Hospital/Care stocks, like, ALI, HRC, LTC, MT, HUM, OXHP, BOL, EYE, STE, RX, you were specifically given herein at lows, as usual, etc....even better, that I am also the ONLY guy to have given THC, HCA< health-type Puttables from recent highs, even with recent bounces, another good example of 'I.G.R., from my Booklet....just as with the Energy sectors moving separately/independently of each other....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) the idiots at CNBC, Wed. 8 am, reporting that, "lloks like the baby bells, like, SBC and BLS and VZ, are becoming much more attractive than the WCOM, T, LU, stocks" - very late, and exactly the opposite of what they should be doing, as usual, right ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) and, L.A.T. 10/30, late, as usual, front-page headline, "Morale at local companies deflates as stock options bubble bursts....workers share angst about plunging stock prices".... 3) then, they also had item, of amazing uselessness, headline, "Markets may be affected by lingering concerns"....hmmmm, what a valuable statement....NOT. ...4) CNBC's B. Pisani (don't get me started) Wed. 11 am, said, "no one is concerned about a fall-back here, since we have come so far so fast, and so, the market has become trendless...."
4) the ignorant guy reporter on CNBC, Wed. 11:10, actually misled greatly, saying, "Semi. stocks have been trading all over the map lately...." , when, he should have said, 'they have corrected as would normally be expected after nice rises', but did not....and these reporters have no liability, do they ? ....5) Tyler Matheson, CNBC, Wed., 11:30, misled big-time, saying, "shares of COVD are SURGING, up $ 1. to 6 1/4, on news it's pres. resigned...." Uh, excuse me ? 'surging' ? and, still way down from $ 70. high, yes ? and these guys get paid for this ? ....6) then, CNBC's 'NASD wal-guy' Tom Costello, Wed., misled again, saying, "the Semi. stocks are getting slammed", when, in fact, most all are already up....next.... 7) then, Thu. 8:30, CNBC finally had pres. of our HRC on - again, as usual, only after stock way up at high - when I was first/only to give you herein from its lows, when CNBC reported super-negatively on it, remember ? the pattern rarely changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) ....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) thanks for nothing, late, as usual, as S & P Outlook (don't getme started), Wed., says, they think the previous, unpredicted-by-them drops in many stocks has been 'overdone' (well, duh), and they love 25 blue-chip names, like, BMY, BAC, INTC, PLT, XLNX, but, of course, none really cheap or very attractive today.... 2) a possibly correct assessment from MER, Wed., saying, Areo./Def. stocks may have gotten ahead of ethmselves here, like, BA, RTN, LMT, LEA, etc. 3) but then, same day, MER rec'd. Oil Svc. stocks, even up here, saying, "this will be more like 1995, than 1997, ahead, for these stocks...." Uh, gee, guys, GLM which they mentioned was only $ 4, in 1995, and, in 1997, it was $ 20 to 35, before falling as I was the first/only to have predicted herein from their highs, back to $ 8. before big predicted-here rise to $ 34. again (double-tops, as I also predoicted herein)....anyway, where they get even the remotest analogy of 'now' to '1995' in this I,g,. is beyond logic, ay ? Remember, they hated them at lows, and loved them at both highs, as usual, yes ? next....
Paul rabbit, said 8/25 much higher, wrong, etc.
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) not that such an item has VER been even remotely of D.A.F.P.P.V. with respect to stock prices moves, but, Tues., our Govt. reported that "consumer confidence" fell to new one-year LOWS recently....further confirming my among-the-first-to-predict economic slowing trend continuing....but, that 'new home sales surged' + 9.2 % in Sept., so, useless and confusing, as usual....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. calls FILE (16++ to 27) for Q 250% G....1/2 pos. calls PRGN (17+ to 25) for VVQ 166% G....1/2 pos. MOT (20 to 26-) for VVQ 125% G....bal. calls LEA (20+ to 26+) for 125% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. HLIT (10 to 19) for VVVVQ 175% G....bal. calls INTC (35 to 47+) for VQ 133% G....all calls CSX (20 to 25++) for 111% G.... 1/2 pos. calls UNP (38 to 47) for 100% G....bal. puts XOI (548 to 511) for VVVVQ % G....1/2 pos. calls VOD (34 to 42) for Q 100% G....1/2 pos. calls JWN (14+ to 17+) for Q 90% G....stock BTC (2.12 to 4.06) for VVVQ 85% G....at least 1/2 pos. stock ALI (2. to 3.18) for L.T. 50% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. XLA (11+ to 15+) for VVVQ 66% G....all stk.on.mgn. MWY (6+ to 9-) for VVVQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. ODP (6+ to 8+) for Q 50% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. OHI (4+ to 5++) for L.T. small % G.... all stock ASL (2.43 to 2.75) for small % G....all puts JNJ (98 to 89) ? for VQ 44% G....
and/but, longs, SR, FFA, and, puts, PNK, SKYW, EXPD, D, COGN, ATSN, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio, except recently perhaps....which, again, normally presages much better performance forward, yes ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. ATYT @ 7 1/2, CERG @ 6- ?, 1/2 pos. IFS @ 9++, 1/2 pos. JWL @ 7++, 1/2 pos. NHR @ 7+, 1/2 pos. PHI. @ 15+, 1/2 pos. PHSY @ 10+, 1/2 pos. WSTL @ 5+,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAI. @ 4 3/16, AAPL @ 18++, ADIC @ 12-, APN @ 5, AZC @ 0.875, BGO @ 0.405, BGP @ 13 1/8, BNP @ 8, BTO @ 7, CN @ 4, CSCQ no ?, DCN @ 20+, DG @ 14 3/4, DLTK @ 6, DDR @ 12, DG @ 15, DL @ 10, ENN @ 6, FMT @ 3+, GENE @ 14, GIGA @ 6+, GLT @ 10, GRA @ 3 3/8, HDG @ 1.00, IFMX @ 3 3/4, IHK @ 1-, LBRT @ 16+, LGTO @ 9-, LU @ 20++, MDS @ 13++, MLG @ 6 1/4, MWY @ 6 1/4, OCN @ 5++, ORB @ 7 5/8, PDG @ 8- eh, REV @ 6-, REY @ 17+, SOL @ 4, STEI. @ 2-, TGX @ 4 3/16, VIXL @ 4 1/2...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, WCOM, HTV, PLUG, CBJ, BAL, EWB, CCE, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt.".... we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. LH @ 135+, 1/2 pos. MAPS @ 33-, PRHC @ 42-,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') FPC ?, GR @ 41+, HCA @ 41+, IPL @ 23+, KMI. @ 40-, RKY @ 65+, SANM @ 113, THC @ 39++, VRTX @ 99,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, MLNM, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately
(also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off
the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look
like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen
nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", SILCF, DCX, NCX, BMCS, PD, FCS, GM, FBN, SWC, LTC, SCMR, SNDK, OCLR, PPG, JS, SRV, CC, EYE, CCE, QCOM, Q, WCII, IIT ?, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, UNH, WPI, MLNM, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
Lots more Winners for you, please read thoroughly:
CRDS 9.81 up 3.81, HLIT 19 3/8 up 5 5/8 (S), SVRN 8.47 up 2.25, BTC 4.18 up 0.93, ALI. 3.37 up 0.87, MWY 9 up 2 (S), XLA 15.25 up 4.43, ADIC 15.31 up 3.37, GENE 18 3/8 up 4 3/8, PHI. 18.93 up 3.93, SOL 5.31 up 1.31, ATYT 9.12 up 1.62, VIXL 5.43 up 1.12, LGTO 11 1/8 up 2 1/4, GLGC 26 3/4 up 4 3/4, APN 5.68 up 1,
more: AN 7.12 up 1.12, DLTK 6.93 up 0.93, PHSY 11.93 up 2, SRR 5 1/2 up 5/8, ODP 8.75 up 1.06, WSTL 6 1/4 up 1 1/8, REV 7 up 1, AAI. 4.87 up 0.43, BTO. 8 up 1, MOT 25.93 up 2.69, UNP 44.31 up 4.06, MDS 15.31 up 1.37, DG 15.93 up 1, JWN 17 1/2 up 1 1/4, WH 13 7/8 up 1, USU 5.12 up 0.31, MU 37.25 up 2.75, AAPL 23 up 2.19, IFS 10.81 up 0.81, PKS 17.25 up 1.31, NSC 15.31 up 1, USB 24 1/4 up 1, PRGN 25.56 up 1.31, SKS 10.43 up 0.62,
still more: MLG 6 1/4 to 8 1/2 to 6 5/8 to 7 3/4, AVA 23.43 up 1.12, CSX 26.56 up 1.25 (S), LEA 27 1/4 up 1 (S), INTC 47 7/8 up 1 1/4, LU 22.87, 24.75, PLL 21.75, MAT 13 1/4, DCN 22 1/2, VOD 42 1/2, N. 15.43, ABS 24.37, PGA 3 1/8, CPB 29.81, AM 18.93, JWL 8, CA 33.56 up 1.18, CX 21.43, USB 24 1/2, TSO. 10 7/8, DLX 22 7/8, UIS 13 1/4, SVRN 8.43, LU 23 7/8, 22, 24.31, DL 12.18, ORB 8.16, higher, since last time here....also note, TOM 13, higher still breakout, and, DCX was a 'fobo', and I was, again, the ONLY guy to like near lows, even if we did get whipsawed out....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
DPH 15 3/4 up 1 3/4, NOVL 9.50 up 0.87, MLG 6 5/8, 7 1/4, ARG 6+, BKS, NLI. 44-, 43-, MSTR, MOT 25, GIGA 6.5, 7.7, F. 25 5/8, PRGN 23, DG 14.68, ODP 8.06, CSCQ, PMTC, GY, CN, HA, GRA, BGP 14, 13 1/8, CVD, HCM, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) PAP 1 7/8 up 1/2, VOD 36-, CHINA 13.50 up 3.07 (sos), CSX, ABS, MLI. 41+, MRCH 6.25, 5.62, CMH, FMT 3.81, CSCQ 3-, IHK, RAD, LBRT 16 1/2, 22 3/8 (sos), STEI, PMTC, MOT, MLG....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
lots more nice drops for you: HCA -4, LH -4, PRHC -3 1/2, MAPS -2, EXC -3 3/4, THC -1 1/2, JNJ -1 3/4, lower, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, AMC, DDR, MLS ?, BNP, BPL, GRT, RAS, TCC, NHR, HRP, JDN, AII, ARJ, TCO, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (BD, AAI, F, DPH, AFWY, AN, NSC, PX, DCN, DCX, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, BMG, SWC, BGO, N, AKS, etc.), Food-related (IHK, BLM, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys (CCL, RCL), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (CIT, NITE, FGH, XRX, CNC, SVRN)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? WSTL, MWL, FON, CEL, PHI, etc., as EVB's, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, GRA, CCC, ROH),
also, Retail (BKS, BGP, DG, ODP, MAY, SKS, JWN, CLE), and some
Health-relateds (SOL, LTC, SRV, GENE, GLGC, EYE, BOL, NHR, ALI, PHSY, CERG, REV)
and, of course, the 'busted Techs' just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (many depr. stocks and Techs getting bounces already, so we do not 'pay up') added, Q, QCOM, to, CDO, CBE, FCS, MCD, DCN, NUE, ROH, RCL, APN, W, IFS, SRR, AEN, API, AMC, MXR, OPI, BND, SNDK, SILCF no, SCMR, LXK, CCC, IFMX, LGTO, CBE, DLX, ECO, RCG, FCM, BKC ?, CSDS, PLL, FGH, FBR, IFS, MLS ?, NCI, NWK, NSI, NCX, XLA, IIT, PHI, AAPL, REV, GRT, VIXL, APN, EMA, DGTC, STSA, MZ, DDR ?, SVI, ADIC, LOJN, CVD, ATI, CRDS, DLTK, BTX ?, BAL, PLB, SQNM, AIB, TEC, OBJX, FSW, RBC, JS, FBN, PHC, BOW, JBM, MDG, CTO, DL, AEM, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades ....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR, MLS, JDN....close stops again....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, BUD, DUK, HP, EXC, HCA, LH, to,
(repeats) BRCM, SSTI, BSC, XLNX, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, CB, IPL, IVX,
ESRX, EXPD, FHCC, COF, MANU, MANH, PLXS, VRTX, FPC, JNJ, NE, CIN, GUC, ELN, EPG, HBC, KMI, PMI, PHA, UNT, WAG, MKL, PNK, ADVS, BELM, APWR, CHCS, IMPH, IMGN, NEWP, VRTS, OSIP, CGP, AVE, D, HSY ?, BRCM, MRX, COGN, MXIM, NMSS, CHKP, BLDP, IWOV, MVSN, CBL, APH, PLXS, ARBA, AUDC, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Brokers, REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already
down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Electronics, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech,
Food/Bev., Fuel Cell, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all
Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, almost all Financial-related I.G.'s, and
most all Tele.-Commun., all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above
their patterns highs....this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES