1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) so, did you also catch an Airline from lows I gave herein ? if not, why not ?....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) ?
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) ....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) Tobin Smith of CHangeWave web-unsolicited NL, now, only after predicted-here-first-only +25 % to +50 % gains, now, suggests, in recent NL to me, "all the fundamental elements are in place for S & P 2002, by end of year 2002", saying, "if one waits for signs that the beginning of the end of the possible recession is proclaimed, stocks will be up + 25 % to +50 % from here"....OK, but, guy, that was what I said, and what YOU should have said, on 9/21, not now, when many stocks have already done what you now proclaim, dig ? you NL guys are always late....my "PSYCLE sm" is always a little early, or roght on.... 20 also, he says "we broker above resistance of 1,825 NASDAQ, and its 200 DMA is 2,050 ahead, coming...."
2) recent ever-bear B. Schaeffer, actually titled his latest missive, "stocks slump slightly higher", which, of course, makes no sense, dig ? ....3) Thu. noon, CNBC actually highlighted "ACTN", check its 23-year chart....they hated it 1997 at low when I gave it out herein, loved it early 1999 at high, hated it after 95 % fall (as usual, they were hugely wrong), and now love it again, may be rolling over ? we shall see.....learn the whole trip-pattern....
4) and surprising and perhaps by me, misleading, article 10/29 Barrons, "No accounting for gains", said, that Ibbotson found, between 1926 and 1981, in the S & P, "dividends provided half of the L.T. gains", which shocked the hell otu of me, and inferred, thatm, at lleast in thatb period, one really had to stay in forever, to get dividends which, after edecades, equalled, yearly, the initial ridiculously-cheap prices of tons of blue-chips, dig ? But, 'buy-and-hold' and 'stocks paying tons of dividends', ended, thereafter, and I wonder why they stopped at 1981, dig ? after 1982 lows, straight price-moves have provided the massive ratio of any gains, to the present, especially in Tech. stocks, which have rarely paid any dividends (but have also been absent from the S & P, which article did not mention, dgms)....anyway, from 1982- 2000, he did prove this, showing, 84 % of gains were as I said, after 1982, vs, 50 % before....This proves what I have been saying for decades, even as a teen learning financial market stuff: dividends are mostly, toe-jam, useless wastes of corporations' money, used to placate already-wealthy L.T. investors, who rarely trade, lucky as they are often, dig ? last, not mentioned, the 1982-2000 period dwarfed the total raw-dollar $ gains of the 1926-1981 period, up to the internet-bubble-top ....his conclusion: the recent period cretaed "phantom wealth' which 'had to disappear' (though, again HE did not predict that, and only says that, now, dig ? dgms), and that 'one must always employ dividends to value stocks properly', which is, of course, crap....next....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) in recent WSJ & LAT articles, the SEC is reviwing their previously announced (but still BS, because they still don't have power to overcome the 'real' power of all the huge players running the show in the investing business, and politics, dgms), surveilliance of 'exch. floor guys', screwing millions of people daily in their occasional less-than-moral actions (dgms)....well, they found that, even after the exchanges agreed to a settlement in 1999, firms STILL failed to prperly supervise their floor brokers to the benefit of investors in executing their trades well enuf....gee, what a surprise....not....They said they might 'penalize' brokers, but have not in years, and probably will not, and even if they did, they, as I said, have no power to change mass behavior of the floor....at least I can help MY clients by being aware and caring, often saving my people more than their paid commisssions over time, with VG executions, often, whew....but it si never EZ enuf....Floor guys who 'trade ahead, and have special knowledge of order books' will always win....but I have asked for decades, how come they are still not all billionnaires....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, 11 more Longs, and, 0 more Puts, wow:
all calls CSCO (12- to 19) for 200% G....bal. calls ALA (11+ to 17) for Q 200% G....all calls AEIS (16+ to 24) for Q 175% Gain....bal. stk.on.mgn. MAPS (8+ to 14+) for Q 133% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. MONE (5+ to 8+) for VVVQ 100% G....all stk.on.mgn. SUNW (8+ to 14+) for VQ 125% G...bal. stk.on.mgn. AMD (8+ to 14) for VQ 125% G....bal. calls AAPL (15 to 20-) for Q 125% G....1/2 pos. calls HOT (20 to 25+) for 100% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. NXTL (7.0 to 9.7) for VQ 75% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. VIRL (9.2 to 12.0) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. NT (5+ to 7) for 50% G....1/2 pos. GTW (5.15 to 7.44) for VQ 70% G....1/2 pos. new stock KANA (0.60 to 1.15) for Q 85% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. CLTK (11+ to 14+) for VQ 44% G ....1/2 pos. calls LIN (18 to 22) for VVQ 88% G....1/2 pos. calls AOL (30 to 36+) for VQ 90% G....
and/but, longs, , and, puts, FDO ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio (well, perhaps a little more than usual, with recent rare events)....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. ANEN @ 15, 1/3 pos. CVAS @ 5+, 1/2 pos. NTK @ 20+, 1/3 pos. PRM @ 2 1/8, 1/2 pos. IFC @ 15.25, RBK soon,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/3 pos. AMR @ 18+, 1/2 pos. CAL @ 17.2, 1/3 pos. BTY @ 49+, 1/3 pos. ORG @ 4+, 1/2 pos. ACLA @ 4 3/4, 1/3 pos. CLRS @ 3.2, 1/3 pos. ENR @ 15 1/2, 1/3 pos. F. @ 16, 1/3 pos. MONE @ 5+, 1/3 pos. MTZ @ 4 1/4, 1/2 pos. TRID @ 4.21, 1/3 more pos. KFY @ 7.1, TORC @ 5.4, 1/2 pos. RRI. @ 15.1, FORR @ 16+, 1/3 pos. CHRS @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. RRC @ 4+, IDXC @ 9+, 1/2 pos. LWIN @ 14--, AVGN @ 9 5/8, FSII. @ 7.5, 1/3 pos. CTHR @ 0.90, SBC @ 38- ?, 1/2 pos. PCTI @ 6++, DY @ 10++, OO. @ 10.5, MTZ @ 4.1, NT @ 5++, FON @ 19+, TCC @ 9+, STXN @ 5+, 1/4 pos. VGZ @ 0.075, VRA @ 1.2, TIE @ 3 ?, UTHR @ 9-...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, GADZ, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. TXU @ 49+,
1/2 pos. APPB @ 32++, 1/2 pos. PECS @ 26++, 1/2 pos. THOR @ 20, SRCL ny ?, PECS soon ?, NVDA soon ?, 1/2 pos. POSS @ 14, RMD @ 60-, 1/2 pos. DRI. @ 32+,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. FDC @ 72-, 1/2 pos. SKE @ 44++, 1/2 pos. IART @ 30, 1/2 pos. UDR @ 14+, 1/2 pos. ROST @ 32+, ATAC @ 16+, 1/2 pos. PECS @ 27+, SRCL no ?, SYK @ 59, ASBC @ 35+, DF @ 46+, FULL @ 54, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 40+, 1/2 pos. APU @ 24, GNCMA @ 12, 1/2 pos. PDCO @ 38-, FHCC @ 28, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26, MATR @ 25+, 1/2 pos. NHP @ 21-, 1/2 pos. SPH @ 28-, 1/2 pos. TJX @ 36+, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 35, ATVI. @ 39+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, COO, TARO, (and, finally cleaned up should-have-been-taken-off-list-a-long-time-ago puttables in sec. (7), and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sectionsGYMB,
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", GM, DOX, STHLY, LPTH, QVDX, SEIC, PBR, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, BCS, TARO, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
a bunch more, neat, huh:
MONE 8.85 up 1.60, KLM 10.21 up 2.21, JNIC 9.19 up 1.53, SUNW 14.03 up 1.33 (S), ORCL 16.25 up 1.25, KANA 1.24 up 0.07, ACPW 6.38 up 1.25, NXTL 9.90 up 1.50, TTEC 9.23 up 1.17, HOT 25.70 up 2.70, CCBL 8.06 up 1.05, STXN 6.54 up 0.31, CLRS 3.68 up 0.28, MAPS 15.29 up 0.89 (S), MOT 18.23 up 1.33, AMD 14.67 up 1.17 (S), LIN 22.00 up 1.10, VIRL 12.13, PXLW 12.39, ZQK 13.95, EMT 3.94, KFY 7.8, GSPN 12.34 up 0.45, AMR 18.98 up 0.98, ENTG 9.00, OO. 12.70, GTW 7.64, AEIS 24+ (S), TCP 6.74, AOL 36.79 up 1, F. 16.77, CAL 19.00, ENR 17.96, PCTI. 7.74 up, TSN 10.23, RRI. 16.84, CCRT 7.50, TRID 5.15, RIMM 19.20, NWAC 14.00, HMT 7.65, BLS 39.25, up/higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
obviously, after V.S.T. tops, got many tech. pb's....and, MTZ 4 (B)< 4.8, DSS 9.45 up 0.49, CSCO 19.79 up 1.29 (S), AVGN 9.60 (B), 10.14, STXN 6, ORG 3.85 (B), 4.03, CHL 16.40 up 1.15, ACPW 5.55, UTHR 9.25, GLBL 7.28 up 0.62, AVX 19.1 up, 18.1, FSII. 7.25, VVTV 15.31 up 1.30, LWIN 16.6 up 1.4, NXTL 8.96, 9.34, FON 22. up, WCOM 14.25 up, PSEM 15 up, ATMI. 19+ up 2, GT 19.38 up, MONE 8.0, GTW 7.05, GSPN 11.37, 10.70, 11.30, FAF 17.83, ELON 14.95 up, CLTK 13....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
FSII. 7.00, 7.33, MOT 16.94, TIE, CATZ, VIRL, RADS, DSS, LNUX, KANA, VGZ, CSCO, HOT 23.52, AMR 17.9, ACLA 4.71, WFII, CHL, COHU, LU, TG 17., BTY 47- dn, CLTK 14.25 up, ENTG, SBC, CHINA, DTPI, TSN, PCTI, JNIC 8.4, ATMI, UAL, TCC, FORR, DNR 7.59, 8.00, VSH, KYO, and most all Techs must follow through....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
still more decent drops, yes ?
CRL -5, ROST +1, -3 1/2, STZ -3, ATVI. -2, IART -2, UNH -1, PECS -1, lower, some further, since last NL here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?
some Depressed: Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Agriculture-oriented, Telecom, Steel, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
ZIXI, BCGI, SANM, STOR, SQNM, RMBS, SBGI, TWMC, NTK, TR, TFS, IFC, MCD eh, PRM, JDSU, to, AMZN, SONS, OPWV, XRX nah, CNH, W, HSII, TTEC, HYSL, STLD, PLXS, OMM ?, PRM, WWF, SCS, TCC, CVAS, TCC, X, RVST, TIE, GT, WFII, TFS eh, WCG, LOR, as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs. again as EVB's: FCEL, RRC, DNR, AES, ENR, PLUG, ENER, TORC, ACPW, etc.
some Biotechs ? REGN, ALXN, XOMA, ACLA, ZOMX, AVGN, ORG,
among Telecom-Net-Commun.-orienteds: PACW, NXTL, FON, GLW, LWIN, SBC ?, BTY ?, BLS, KANA, CLRS, IDXC, WCOM, NT, LU, T, DY, STHLY,
among Semi.-orienteds: PSEM, TRID, FSII,
computer-storage-software-orienteds: CVAS, PCTI, STOR, DSS, ELON, LTBG, PXLW, UIS, CPQ ?,
and, of course, gotta have one Airline near recent lows, with close stop, like, AWA, CAL, DAL, NWAC, AMR, FLYR, KLM, etc., anyway ? but, of course, they likely will already br up, before 'the 95 %' wrere even aware, as usual, yes ?
retail/apparel: ZQK, CASY, CTHR, CHRS, RBK,
leisure/travel: WWF, HMT, PXLW, TRB, F, etc.
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, PNRA, NVDA, POSS, RGIS, ROST, RESP, STRA, MI, to, AMG, DF, COO, NDC, RMD, SYK, ATVI, BMET, PECS, SRCL no ?, TARO no ?, to, UDR, ACE no ?, DRI here ?, BCS, APU ?, AMN, FDC, RWT, TOO, HUB.B, APPB, MATR, THOR, FULL, MATR, PDCO, STZ, FDO ?, TJX, FBC, JEF ?, SPH, NHP no ?, MAA, UNH, AOT, RJR, ACDO, ATRX, ENZN, LIZ, BBY, STU, ITT, CHD ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES