1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) note how many 'yield-plus-dividend' depresseds are on my lists here.... 2) and, as we notice further rises among the Food/Grocery stocks, recall who was the first/only to give them out herein near lows for you....and, of course, since CNBC kept mentioning them Thu., you know what to do, yes ? so what else is new....the pattern rarely changes.... 3) but, also note, some QSL's among our depressed Retail stocks, no biggie, as usual.... 40 also note full recent breakout among HMO stocks, which, as you know, i was also the first/only to give out, near lows last year, herein, for you....you're welcome....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) long article, L.A.T. 11/6, T. Petruno (don't get me started), "market volatility shaking investors' convictions", mentions that the AAII now has 51 % bullish reading, up from 27 % bullish at recent lows (he infers current readin is bullish, I say they missed it, and too bullish too soon)....and that stock MF's now have $ 4.4 bill. in assets, up from $ 1.3 bill. in 1995....and interviewed nothing but people who have held Tech. stock positions all the way down, in which case, why act on what those people are saying now ? ....2) Wed. a.m. CNBC finally menbtioned WMI, another one I gave you herein from lows base, as a 'new bullish idea' up here....as usual, I ask, where were they at the lows ? oh yesah, they and analysts hated it, the pattern rarely changes....like people were never to use garbage removal services ever again, at the lows, right.... 3) I love it (sarcasm) when a CNBC reporter says, "XYZ stock is 'moving'....uh, gee, aren't they ALL 'moving' pretty-much all the time ? next....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) my being among the first few to, so far, correctly hint at economic reversals, I am now just beginning to read more items regarding a rcession looming in some areas of our economy and worldwide....as usual, down the road, the moment such a sory is recognized by 'the 95 %', it will, of course, be too late for those people to begin to take actions they should/could have taken back when I suggested things puttable, R.E. top, etc., yes ? the pattern rarely changes.... 2) with Disney's predicted-by-us-first stock price drop, note their announcement that 'lower ratings for 'Millionnaire' TV show was also predicted-by-me-herein-at-its-top as well....you're welcome....are you learning the patterns ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) John (don't getme started) Bollinger, CNBC, 12:28 Tues., loves Elec. Utils., "no matter what happens....from up here...." 2) an excellent point recently made by Bridgewater Mgmt., in Barrons 10/23, citing how AMZN's 2008 corp. bonds are being valued at 50 cents on a dollar, yielding 16.5 % there, yet the stock is valuing the co. at over $ 10 bill., down from $ 50 bill., an impossible-to-continue-forever paradox/inconsistency, yes ? They said many similar imponderables between bond-and-stock values exist, in effect saying the Bond people are bearish while the Stock people are bullish, or not seeing that, meaning, one side must move towards the other....question is, which side from here, dig ? what do you think ?
3) finally, super-bull-all-the-way-down, MER's Henry Blodget (whom I have mentioned herein before), Thu., went to 'neutral', from 'bullish', on already-very-depressed web-etailers like, WBVN, ETYS, BUYX, and, IPET, Furniture.com, MTHR, recently had closed their doors already....meaning, as usual, as you have been taught, they NEVER go bearish until AFTER huge declines they NEVER protect their paying cliuents against all the way down....'nuff said.... further proof....
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) L.A.T. said our recent Calif. political races cost, get this, $ 200 mm, by me, a collosal waste of resources....but, then, also look at the results....I rest my case....and that whole elctoral college and Florida crap, proves my point again....why any one person winning by such a small amount, should have such power in any country, is beyind me....the system has been terrible for decades, and is just another in a long line of political 'junk' in this still-wonderful/great country....what a shame....the "PSYCLE sm" lesson continues to be, that 95 % of all human and Media and Political evdeavors surround wasted and slanted or useless or damaging 'stuff'....'nuff said for now....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still, lots of/more Winners (23) for you, even in this market: bal. calls WIN (14 to 22+) for 250% Gain....1/2 pos. calls PHSY (10+ to 15+) for VVVQ 166% G ....bal. calls ADIC (12 to 17++) for VQ 166% G....1/2 pos. calls CPB (24 to 31++) for L.T. 133% G....all calls MAT (10+ to 13+) for 100% G....all calls UIS (10 to 13++) for VQ 133% G....bal. stock IOM (3+ to 6++) for L.T. 90% G....bal. calls GLGC (19++ to 25-) for VVQ 100% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. MWY (6 to 8++) for VVQ 80% G....bal. calls MU (30 to 36-) for VVQ 80% G....bal. calls CIT (14 to 18+) for 111% G....1/2 pos. calls PKS (14+ to 17+) for VQ 90% G....all calls JWN (14++ to 19) for VQ 100% G....bal. calls XLA (11+ to 14+) for VQ 100% G....bal. puts EMC (103 to 81) for Q 90% G....at least 1/2 pos. puts ITWO (190 to 137) for Q 111% G ....1/2 pos. calls PLL (19 to 23) for 90% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CRDS (5++ to 9+) for VQ 100% G....1/2 pos. puts SANM (115 to 92) for Q 80% G....1/2 of 2nd pos. stock FMT (3+ to 5+) for VQ 50% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. MLG (6 5/8 to 8 1/2) for L.T. 50% G....1/2 pos. calls AM (17+ to 19+) for L.T. 44% G....1/2 of 1st pos. stock FMT (4 to 5 1/8) for 25% G....
and/but, longs, JWL, CSCQ, CN, DG, CNS, ASYT, T., CERG, EMA ?, BGP ?, and, puts, LH, CAH, AUD, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. CMTN @ 10+, 1/2 pos. EGLS @ 14-, 1/2 pos. MCTR @ 4 1/8, 1/2 pos. OPI. @ 6- ?
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AII. @ 8, AMC @ 8, APN @ 5, AZC @ 0.875, BGO @ 0.405, BGP @ 12+ ?, BNP @ 8, DDR @ 12, EMA no ?, ENN @ 6-, GIGA @ 6+, GRA @ 3 3/8, HDG @ 1.00, IFMX @ 3 3/4, IHK @ 1-, IIT @ 7+, KLIC @ 10++, MDS @ 14-, MLS @ 17, NHR @ 7+, NLI. @ 38, OCN @ 5 1/2, ODP @ 6 5/8, PDG @ 8- eh, PHSY @ 10+, WSTL @ 5.06, XLA @ 10+...."buy (only) low", right ?
note, we rethought EEEE, and LTV - nope....
** Important: took, AEM, DGTC, NXTV, LPX, LTV ny, ASYT, Q, API, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): BRCD @ 260-, 1/2 pos. CHKP @ 170+, 1/2 pos. CMVT @ 118, 1/2 pos. GUC @ 104, 1/2 pos. UNH @ 114,
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') DV @ 39+, HBC @ 75+, HCA @ 41++, IPL @ 23+, IVX @ 47+, KMI. @ 40-, KRB @ 39, MNY @ 42++, RKY @ 67+, SEBL @ 120-, SPC @ 51-, THC @ 39++, TDW @ 47++, VRTS @ 158+, VRTX @ 99-,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, AUD, DA ?, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately
(also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off
the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look
like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen
nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", SRV, COST, SWC, STSA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, CTIC, CHP, PPL, DURA, CPL, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er):
Lots more Winners for you, please read thoroughly:
PHSY 15 3/8 up 5 1/8, FMT 5 3/8 up 1 3/8, WIN 22.43 up 1.93 (S), IIT 8 1/2 up 1/2, CPB 31.71 up 1 (sos), FON 26 up 1 3/8, VIXL 6.18, BKS 19.81, UIS 13 7/8 (S), AM 19.31, JWN 19 1/8 (S), CIT 18 1/2 (S), DDR 12 1/2, DL 12.31, USU 5 3/8, ABS 24 3/4, DLTK 7, higher, since last time here....and, WMI, CTXS, SWY, KR, ANN, even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
ARG 6.68, 7.62, STEI. 2.06, 2.37, HCM, GY, VIXL 5.53, 4 1/2, DCN 21, 22, ODP, GLT 11 5/8, EMA, DPH, NOVL, BKS 19.18, 17.75, AFWY 17 3/8 up 1 1/8, MLG (S), MSTR 21.31, MOT 23 3/4, 21 1/2, LU 21 7/8, MDS 14.56, F. 24 7/8, APN 5.06, PKS 15-, WSTL 5, GIGA, REV 6.18, SVRN 7 7/8, AAPL 20-, VOD 34 1/2, OCN 5.50, 5.93, PMTC, CN, ATYT 8.28, NLI. 38, GRA, CVD, HA, HCM, PLL 21 1/8, LGTO 10-, ENN 5 7/8, LBRT 17, VGZ....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) BGP 12 1/4, 12 5/8, IHK, PAP, VOD 34+, CHINA 8.71, NLI., MRCH 4+, CMH, RAD, LBRT 19-, EMA 7.7, STEI, PMTC, MOT, T. 21.31, BNP 8, PLL, ORB 6 3/4, KLIC 10 1/2....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: BRCD -47, ITWO -42, CHKP -29, VRTS -31, SEBL -21 1/2, DCTM -11, CMVT -14, DDIC -4 1/2, DV -3, TDW +1, -3, PRHC +2, -4, KRB -2, EPG -1, MNY -1, EOG -1, lower, since last NL here.... while, EMC, ITWO, approached their 200 DMA....and, JDSU 70, GLW 59+, AMCC 57, DIS 31+, BBY 32, DIS, WMT, etc., even lower still (all, of course, given you herein as Puts near their highs)....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (HCN, ENN, CWN, AMC, DDR, MLS, BNP, GRT, RAS, TCC, NHR, HRP, JDN, AII, ARJ, TCO, LHO ?, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (BD, AAI, F, DPH, AFWY, AN, DCN, WAC, GM, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (USU, BMG, SWC, BGO, N, AKS, LTV ?, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys (CCL, RCL, HAS), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (NITE, FGH, XRX, CNC, SVRN, CERG, OCN, IFS, FBR)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? WSTL, MWL, FON, CEL, PHI, T. no ?, DT, IIT, etc., as EVB's, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, GRA, CCC, ROH), also, Retail (BGP, SKS, CNS),
Health-relateds (ALU, SOL, SRV, GLGC, EYE, BOL, NHR, ALI, PHSY, CERG, REV, BSX)
Food-relateds, (IHK ?, BLM, DLM, SVU, DL, etc.)
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs', as EVB's, just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (many depr. stocks and Techs getting bounces already, so we do not 'pay up') added, INAP, ICIX, KOPN, ITXC, MCTR, EGLS, COHU, LTV ny, KM, BMG, AIR, FBN, LZB, DLM, WAC, SFN, BSX, DT, GM, KLAC, KLIC, CMOS ?, BANR, ALU ?, AII, GEB, to, CDO, FCS, APN, SRR, AEN, AMC, MXR, OPI, BND, IFMX, DLX, ECO, RCG, FCM, CSDS, NCI, NWK, IIT, AAPL, EMA ?, STSA, LOJN, CVD, ATI, DLTK, SQNM, TEC, OBJX, ODP, FSW, RBC, JS, FBN, PHC, JBM, MDG, CTO, OMI, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns ....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR, MLS, JDN....close stops again....
and, watching the 'busted asbestos' stocks, like, FMO, OWC, ACK, USG, etc. ? probably not yet ready....
and, watch for rare losers like, MRCH, KDE, to base ?, and become buys again ahead, as did STEI, FMT, as I taught you ?
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, AGN, EOG, CPL, CGP, CHP, ETR, MNY, PPL, RJR, SPC, TDW, DA ?, EPG, CTIC, BEAS, BRCD, DDIC, DURA, DUK, HP, EXC, HCA, to,
(repeats) BRCM, SSTI, BSC, XLNX, DFXI, ELF, IONA, RSYS, CB, IPL, IVX,
ESRX, EXPD, FHCC, COF, MANU, MANH, PLXS, VRTX, FPC, JNJ, NE, CIN, GUC, ELN, EPG, HBC, KMI, PMI, PHA, UNT, WAG, MKL, PNK, ADVS, BELM, APWR, CHCS, IMPH, IMGN, VRTS, OSIP, CGP, AVE, D, MRX, MXIM, NMSS, CHKP, BLDP, IWOV, MVSN, CBL, APH, PLXS, ARBA, VRTX, AUDC, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Utilities, Insur., REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Electronics, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all 'not-down-yet Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES