1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) the pattern rarely changes: finally, Thu., 'AMD' announces they will 'beat previously lowered guidance, and may actually make money in 2002" - hmmmm, seems I specifically mentioned how, all the idiots who hated it at low, loved it at high, hated AMD again at recent low, "because Intel was gonna put AMD out of business", right ? well, AMD rose +75 % from MY buy on it herein, and now, 'some' analysts hate it less....sure, as usual, they will only like it again, at $ 30, when and if, yes ? amazing, huh....they will never learn....meanwhile, note I added some semi-chip stocks as Puttables S.T. actually, I am certainly the first/only to do so.... 2) some telecoms broke a bit, so removed them, little/no damage.... 3) as usual, let me bethe first and only, to add some depressed Paper/Pulp/Forest-oriented stocks as longs ahead.... 4) added more exteded financials and insurance brokers, and some REIT's still, to puttable list....again, I am the first/only.... 5) with the only 3 'batteries' stocks/compnaies still left in existaence, in dire straits and depresseds, I find it difficult to envision every battery co. disappearing forever, dig ? hence, people purporting to be 'fundamentailsts' who are not considering these stocks, are illogical, yes ? they have gotta survive....battery use must continue, yes ? there is pretty-much no alternative, consumer-wise.... 6) have I been the only guy to have given out both HWP and CPQ from recent EVB lows ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) well, just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, CNBC has hired a new reporter gal, whose shockingly uncomfortable habit is - hesitating - often - during-every-sentence to-try-to-give-each sentence fragment - an over/dramatic- element, is galling....'nuff said, but she's really annoying....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, and/or
stock price moves:
1) ....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) this one is great: as per the usual pattern sequence, recently, Lehman analyst J. Bensche, just lowered his stock price target on our AETH< from - get this - $ 37 (from where he held all the way down, no stops, dgms), to $ 4. - right at AETH's bottom, and this week, 'AETH' stock ROSE nicely, dig ? and these guys still get overpaid ? ....2) I wonder if some of B. Schaeffer's guys are losin' it, as another missive yesterday, titled, "market at critical juncture" (which is, of course, true, even by me), shows 4 previous supposedly-similar patterns, from 10/98, 2/91, 8/82, and 1/75, all after initial rises after EVB lows (which, remember, I predicted/caught, and Schaeffer was bearish from/at, right ?), and THEIR conclusion was 'caution to bearish S.T. from here"....fine, but, gee, every chart he showed in his treatise, showed barely a blip, hesitation, before a continuation of a big(ger) Rise, longer ! his charts were NOT 'bearish from this point' in the past examples he showed !
2) a decent technician on CNBC, Fri. 12:25, at Joseph Stevens Cp., did show recent NASDAAQ loq supporting right around its 100-mo. MA, and suggested, as I see, once over 1800+ and 2050 as its 50 DMA, the NASDAQ rising towards its 200 DMA, of maybe 2600 or so, which I mentioned a while ago, first....but, one step at a time....
e) more general, political, misreported items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) well, exactly as I seemingly alone surmised, Mon., GM announced their 0 % financing 3-yr. stuff, being extended to 1/2/02, get it ? But, Michelle cabrera CNBC (dgms), vsatly continued tomislead, exclaiming, "that 0 % financiang is what pushed auto sales THROUGH THE ROOF in Oct." - uh, nope.... wrong....
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more Gains, 4 more Longs, and, 4 more Puts, wow:
1/2 pos. calls COHU (14+ to 19+) for 166% G....bal. stk.on.mgn. CNXT (7+ to 14-) for 150% G....1/2 pos. calls FMC (47+ to 52-) for VQ 55% G....1/2 pos. stk.on.mgn. NT (5 to 7-) for 60% G....1/2 pos. calls ENR (15+ to 18-) for Q 66% G....bal. puts BDX (38 to 32) for Q 66% G....1/2 pos. puts UNH (68++ to 63+) for Q 33% G....bal. puts CRL (38 to 28+) for 90% G....1/2 pos. puts RE (75+ to 65++) for 66% G....all puts FHCC (29 to 22+) for VQ 90% G....
and/but, longs, CAL, AMR, BTY ny ?, and, puts, ACE for B.E., and, FULL, THOR, FDO, FDC ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio (well, perhaps a little more than usual, with recent rare events)....all still have plenty of cash to deploy soon....and we always expect some "fobd's" along the way among depressed stocks....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/3 pos. ABX @ 15+, 1/3 pos. ABY @ 6 1/8, 1/3 pos. DCN @ 10+, 1/2 pos. GLW @ 7+, 1/2 pos. RBK @ 20+, 1/2 pos. KEYN @ 7+, 1/2 pos. MCD @ 26, 1/2 pos. UHS @ 38++,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions):
1/3 pos. ORG @ 4, 1/2 pos. ACLA @ 4 3/4, 1/2 pos. ANEN @ 15, 1/3 pos. CVAS @ 5+, 1/2 pos. NTK @ 20+, 1/3 pos. PRM @ 2 1/8, 1/2 pos. IFC @ 15.25, 1/3 pos. CLRS @ 3.2, 1/3 pos. ENR @ 15 1/2, 1/3 pos. F. @ 16, 1/3 pos. MTZ @ 4 1/4, 1/2 pos. TRID @ 4.21, 1/3 more pos. KFY @ 7.1, TORC @ 5.11, 1/2 pos. RRI. @ 15.1, FORR @ 16+, 1/3 pos. CHRS @ 4.55, 1/3 pos. RRC @ 4+, IDXC @ 9+, AVGN @ 9 1/2, FSII. @ 7.5, 1/3 pos. CTHR @ 0.90, 1/2 pos. PCTI @ 6++, TCC @ 9+, STXN @ 5+, 1/4 pos. VGZ @ 0.075, VRA @ 1.2, TIE @ 3 ?, WWF @ 10.80, UTHR @ 9-...."buy (only) low", right ?
** Important: took, , Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." ....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. KMX 2C 20+, 1/2 pos. NMTC ?, RWT @ 25, 1/2 pos. ISIL ?, 1/2 pos. TXU @ 49++, 1/2 pos. UGI @ 29+, 1/2 pos. ROAD @ 29+, 1/2 pos. RYL @ 62- ?, 1/2 pos. MCHP @ 37++ ?,
1/2 pos. APPB @ 32++, 1/2 pos. PECS @ 26++, 1/2 pos. POSS @ 14, RMD @ 60-, 1/2 pos. DRI. @ 32+,
"Repeats": 1/2 pos. FDC no ?, 1/2 pos. SKE @ 44++, 1/2 pos. IART @ 30, 1/2 pos. UDR @ 14+, 1/2 pos. ROST @ 32+, ATAC @ 16+, 1/2 pos. PECS @ 27+, SRCL no ?, SYK @ 59, ASBC @ 35+, DF @ 46+, 1/2 pos. ACE @ 40+, 1/2 pos. APU @ 24, GNCMA @ 12, 1/2 pos. PDCO @ 38-, FHCC @ 28, 1/2 pos. MAA @ 26, MATR @ 25+, 1/2 pos. NHP @ 21-, AOT @ 25, 1/2 pos. SPH @ 28-, 1/2 pos. TJX @ 36+, 1/2 pos. PHC @ 35, ATVI. @ 40,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, NVDA, PNRA, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's"....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sectionsGYMB,
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", OPWV, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, GENZ, LH, ATK, ICPT, CEFT, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
be
sure to VIEW charts of all the big winners lately from last few NL's, to learn
the pattern:
a bunch more, recently, neat, huh:
AES 14.50 up 2.17, PXLW 10.18, 13.25, ELON 15.00, 13.78, 17.23, TCP 6.90 up 0.90, LTBG 11.47 up 1.32, CNXT 14+ up 1 1/2 (S), LWIN 17.36 up 2, RIMM 20.74 up 2.88, GLW 8.19 up 1.07, STXN 6.74 up 0.89, NT 7.45 up 0.95, CPQ 8.33 up 0.73, TRID 5.25 up 0.53, COHU 19.60 up 1.35, ENTG 9.15 up 0.50, DSS 9.85 up 0.50, XOMA 7.14 up 0.39, AGU 10.35 up 0.71, CHRS 5.07 up 0.32, EMC 16.11 up 0.88, UHS 40.30 up 1.65, BLS 39.75 up 1.40, AOL 38 up 1, ENR 17.99, TSN 10.72 up 0.57 (sos), HMT 7.75, ET 8.82 (S), VIRL 12.50, CSCO 19.80 up , ENR 18.10, RRI. 17.65 up , up/higher since last NL here....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and/or more Bounces after pullbacks:
obviously, after V.S.T. tops, getting many tech. and other pb's, especially early Monday follow-on from Fri....and, CHL 16.75 up 1.24, DNR 7.55 (B), 8.16, 7.84, AES 13.21, 14.25, ATMI. 21.22 up 2.88, RBK 19.74 pb, UTHR 8.86 (B), OO. 11.17, 12.50, COHU, FON 22.14 up, 20.88, IDXC 9.50, 10.45, MONE 7.91, MTZ 4.90, 4.44, CLTK 12.35, 13.40, HOT 22.70, 25.00, ACPW 6.38, 5.41, CCBL 7.28, FMC 49.82, 51.21, ZQK 12.90, 13.68, KEYN 7.35 (B), AVGN 9.4 (B), FAF 17.40, CCRT 6.78, WWF 10.76 (B), F. 16.10, WCOM 14.29 up, ORG 4 (B), TG 16.89, LIN 20.15, X. 14.56 up 0.55, DY 12.56 up 0.60....some of these are also in the "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?)
MOT, TIE 2.96 (cb), BTY 45.75 (B), 47.50, CATZ, VIRL, RADS, LNUX, KANA, VGZ, HOT, WFII, FSII. 6.91, NWAC 11 3/4, CHL, COHU, LU, BTY 47- (S) ? (B) ?, CLTK, CHINA, DTPI. 9.30, 10.98, TSN, KYO 69, PCTI, SBC (B), JNIC, ATMI, UAL, TCC, FORR, VSH 18-, and most all Techs must follow through....and, might, CAL, be more 'fobd's' ?
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out to learn:
still more decent drops, yes ?
AOT -4 1/4, ROST -4 1/4, RE -3 1/2, PDCO -2, RMD -2, SYK -2, BDX -2 (S), KMX -2, CRL -2 (S), ATAC -1 3/4, ROST -1, TXU -1, PECS, GNCMA, MATR, lower, some further, since last NL here....also, see, BRL 66, ESRX, CMX, even lower still....and, UNH, approached its 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?
some Depressed: Entertainment/Leisure, Retail/Apparel, Cable, Brokers, Agriculture-oriented, Telecom, Steel, to, Depressed Telecom/Wireless, Biotech, Health-related, Chem./Farm/Fert., alternative Energy, Ind. Groups...and, the 'defensive index' is improving as well....and, more Foreign Closed-End M. Funds at bigger discounts soon ? hmmmm....
*** and, of course, many depr. Techs, Semis, data storage, internet, software, memory, computer - relateds, below, and soon....ONLY near lows, as always....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list will be revised over each weekend....
added even more: but, note, obviously, I removed a bunch, and some others are already up, as well (and many others previously given from lows, remain buys on big pullbacks, also note, re-added some previously whipsawed ones):
added, (note, we removed a bunch, and some may break today, Fri., after this NL out)
but look at all the new ones - you know what THIS usually means (read sec. (1) above), added these:
PDII, KEYN, DTHK, BCGI, AXTI, PD, ALL, ABX, DCN, MCD, DR, ABY, LHO, NR, PCH, PPD, WIN, U. ?, to, ZIXI, BCGI, SANM, STOR, SQNM, RMBS, SBGI, TWMC, NTK, TR, TFS, IFC, MCD, JDSU, to, AMZN, SONS, OPWV, XRX nah, CNH, W, HSII, TTEC, HYSL, PLXS, OMM ?, PRM, WWF, SCS, TCC, CVAS, TCC, X, RVST, TIE, GT, WFII, WCG, LOR, as EVB's or bases....
and, some Energy/Alt./Svcs. again as EVB's: FCEL, RRC, DNR, PLUG, ENER, TORC, ACPW, etc.
some Biotechs ? REGN, ALXN, XOMA, ACLA, ZOMX, AVGN, ORG,
among Telecom-Net-Commun.-orienteds: PACW, NXTL, FON, GLW, LWIN, BLS, KANA, CLRS, IDXC, WCOM, NT, LU, T, DY,
among Semi.-orienteds: PSEM, TRID, FSII,
computer-storage-software-orienteds: CVAS, PCTI, STOR, DSS, ELON, LTBG, PXLW, UIS, CPQ ?,
and, of course, gotta have one Airline near recent lows, with close stop, like, AWA no ?, DAL, NWAC, FLYR, KLM, U, etc., anyway ? but, of course, they likely will already br up, before 'the 95 %' wrere even aware, as usual, yes ?
retail/apparel: ZQK, CASY, CTHR, CHRS, RBK,
leisure/travel: WWF, HMT, PXLW, TRB, F, etc.
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* added, CEFT, FISV ?, IMCL ?, KMX, CBH, FTN, STW, SLM, TXU, UGI, WRI, RWT, RYL, ISIL, NMTC, MRCY, MCHP, SKYF, POSS, RGIS, ROST, RESP, MI, to, AMG, DF, COO, NDC, RMD, SYK, ATVI, PECS, SRCL no ?, UDR, DRI here ?, BCS, APU ?, AMN, IART, FDC, RWT, TOO, HUB.B, APPB, MATR, MATR, PDCO, STZ, FDO ?, TJX, FBC, JEF ?, SPH, NHP no ?, MAA, RJR, ACDO, ATRX, ENZN, LIZ, BBY, STU, ITT, CHD ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and/but,
understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops: Extended: added, Toys/Leisure, to, Comp./S'w/Educ. co's., Pollution-related, Aero./Def., Funeral, "Medical-outpatient-home-care", "commercial services', 'mobile homes', Disc. Chains, Insur./Bank/Mtg./Loans, Health/Medical/Drug/Dental/Biotech, Commercial Services, all types of Media, Apparel, Tobacco, Food, Retail, Elec., and some High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES