1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) the newest addition to my puttables list in section (7) are the Finance/Bank/Mortgage stocks - surprised ? most everyone else loves them here, yes ? ....2) and, thanks, yes, I was again, the first/only to give out the Biotech Index as a Put at recent highs ....3) also, with everyone else now loving the Hospital/HMO stocks, way higher than when I gave them to you as buys at lows herein, look for them to top as well, dig ? see our tops among Health-relateds recently ....4) with the totally-unpredicted-by-me new high in 'Nat. Gas futures', note their 'stocks' are not making new highs....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Maria Bartiromo, Fri., 11:11 am, asked two "B2B" stock guys who have held those stocks all the way down, wrong (don't get me started), "if things are so rosy for these companies, how come their stocks are down so much so fast ?" (ditto on M.B.), like, ARBA, CMRC, ITWO, all given by me near tops as puttables herein, yes ? as usual, this is what they always say in this "PSYCLE" stage, yes ? the pattern/sequence rarely changes.... 2) and leave it to L.A. Times, J. Flanigan, 11/19 headline, finally puffing Aero./Def. stocks super-bullishly -- as usual, late, and much higher than when I suggested them herein at lows....so what else is new....the pattern rarely changes....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) for some unknown reason (don't get me started) the L.A.T. has been puffing a supposed expert on the psychology of trading, his book, etc., when they could have been letting ME help millions of readers the past few years ....anyway, they should have printed any such education, back near the top in Internet/Tech./Comp., and other I.G., stocks, yes ? so, as usual, a bit too late to 'begin' to suggest being careful, now, down here, ay ? the pattern rarely changes....meanwhile, he said NOTHING new, beyond obvious basics we all know, and, had NO specific advice or concepts to help trading/choosing/timing.... as I do....they also did not show HIS actual, L.T., T.R., so, 'next'.... 2) and, I reiterate, I laugh, when I view AOL and TWX stock, both down nicely as only I was first to predict herein from their highs, with their supposed 'bulletproof take over the world' merger....hah, to all those overrated analysts....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) Mon., 11:10, on CNBC, MSDW finally lowered opinions on networking stocks, like, JNPR, RBAK, CSCO, EXTR....and S.G. Cowan reiterated strong buys on similar stocks - which they held all the way down in recent months without stops, etc. So, for the umpteenth time: of what good are most B-firms research dept.'s ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) as I have taught for years, recent article in Investment Advisor Mag. 11/00 issue, on IPO's, rehashing how so many new issues FALL big-time after initial-pops, did echo my sentiments about how much $$$ companies leave on the table, dig ? They 'could' and maybe 'should' have raised a lot more $$$, which Iblame partly on the greedy firms charging them for their 'services', while, often, getting tons of free stock, then selling after rises, getting fees, while they NEVER put out 'sale' recommendations, etc. What do YOU think about this issue (pun intended) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. puts VRTX (99- to 55+) for VQ 175% Gain....all puts PRHC (40+ to 28+) for VQ 125% G....bal. puts BRCD (260 to 190-) for VQ 125% G....bal. stk.mon.mgn. AVA (18+ to 23-) for 55% G....1/2 pos. puts KRB (38 to 33+) for VVQ 66% G....all puts CMVT (115- to 93+) for VQ 80% G....
and/but, longs, GLGC, DCN, LU, PLA, AII. ?, OCN ?, APN ?, new pos. NITE, and, puts, XOM, TE, UNH no, THC ?, JNJ ?, EPG ?, DV ?, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AMAT @ 40, ENTU @ 20+, 1/2 pos. NCI. @ 3 5/8, 1/2 pos. NTOP @ 16+ ?, 1/2 pos. PKS @ 14+, 1/2 pos. PRGN @ 15+, 1/2 pos. TERN @ 17+, 1/2 pos. UAL @ 36+, 1/3 pos. WCOM @ 15 ?
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAPL @ 18+, AII. no, AMC @ 8, APN ?, ARJ @ 18-, BGO @ 0.405, BMG @ 1.34, CX @ 20, DDR @ 12, DPH @ 14 1/8, EGLS @ 13 3/4, ENN @ 6-, F. @ 24-, FGH @ 5.44, FUN @ 18+, FRT @ 19, GENE @ 13+, GY @ 7 5/8, HA @ 1 7/8, ICIX @ 15, IFMX @ 3++, IHK @ 1, KDE @ 12, MDS @ 14-, NOVL @ 7++, OCN no ?, ODP @ 6 5/8, OHI. @ 5.06, OPI. @ 6-, PAP @ 1.06, PDG @ 8-, SKS @ 9 1/8, TSP @ 13, VIXL ?...."buy (only) low", right ?
.
** Important: took, DIGX, GTS, DCX, GM, X, SFN, INAP, BRKT, CMTN, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. APC @ , 1/2 pos. CERN @ 60-, 1/2 pos. CHCS @ 40-, 1/2 pos. CIMA @ 69, 1/2 pos. CMX @ 12+, EXBD @ 46, 1/2 pos. FRE @ 60+, FRX ny, GLH @ 24+, 1/2 pos. MRK @ 91+, 1/2 pos. PHA @ 59++
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') DME @ 24+, DUK @ 87++, DV no ?, EXC @ 62, FNM @ 79+, HBC @ 75+, HCA @ 42, IPL @ 23+, MRK @ 91++, SEI. @ 16+, TDW @ 47++, UNH @ 116,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, DST, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", AIR, YUM, CBE, A, PER, WEC, MXR, BSX, ATI, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AXP, AGC, EMLX, ROOM, PLMD, RNBO, MDT, CRUS, FRX, ORI, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
AMAT 42 5/8 up 3, ENTU 23.12 up 2.56, NCI. 3.56, 3.93, TERN 18.70 up 1.70, FGH 5.81 up 0.37, SCR/A 22.93, LGTO 11 1/4, CC 13 7/8, DLM 7 1/8, higher, since last time here....and, RX 27, CPB 33+, UNP 50+, SRE 23, WMI. 26+, CBE 41, TRN 25+, WIN 23, SRR 5.81, even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
CVD 7 5/8, 8 7/8, AAPL 19 1/2 up 1 1/4, PDG 7.68, 8.43, SKS 9, 9 5/8, ARJ 19 1/8 up 1 1/8, MOT 22, 23.31, AMAT 40, 42, DLX 23.12 up 1.87, VOD 34+, FGH 5.43, ARG, OHI, ALI, GLT, MU 31.81, 36.50, 33.81, DPH, HCM, NVLS 30.62, 33.56, 30.81, NOVL, KOPN 13.31, FON, ENTU 21, ICIX 15, MDS, F. 24.68 up 0.87, TERN 17+, DLTK, APN, PKS, REV, SVRN, SOL, PMTC, ATYT, HA 1 7/8, PLL, LGTO 10.56, GIGA 6 3/4, ENN, CC 12.56, CX 21.31 up 1.37....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) AM, AII. 7 7/8, STEI., KDE, IHK, VOD, CHINA, MRCH 2-, CMH, NOVL, FMT 4.62, 4.93, 4.38, TSP 13, AAI, RAD, BMG, OCN, PMTC, MOT, FON, BNP, PLL, ORB, VIXL 5.37, GENE 13 1/8, MSTR 18.43, IFMX 3 5/8, APN....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: BRCD -35 (S), VRTX -8 (S), CIMA -6, CMVT -5 (S), DUK -3 3/8, FRE -3 3/8, CHCS -3, EXBD -3, CERN -2 1/2, PRHC -2 (S), KRB -2 1/2, DA -1 1/2, CMX -1, DME, GR, GLH, CBL, GUC, lower, since last NL here....and, CMRC 46, GRP 17, FCEL 54, NTAP 65, NEWP 61, QLTI. 35, SLR 34, RATL 36, NMSS 25, GSPN 50, NT 32, the BTK index 554, down even further still.... while, JNPR, JNIC, VRTX, ELNT, ADRX, BRCD, CMVT, fell to/approached their 200 DMA....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, ENN, CWN, AMC, DDR, MLS, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, FUN, CRO eh, HRP, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (F, DPH, AN, GY, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (BMG, SWC, FGH, BGO, N, AKS, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys (CCL, RCL, HAS), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (XRX, SVRN, OCN ?, IFS, FBR)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? MWL, CEL, PHI, DT, TSP, IIT, etc., as EVB's, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, CCC, ROH, DD), also, Retail (KM, CNS, ODP),
Health-relateds (ALU, SOL, SRV, GENE, EYE, ALI, REV, BSX)
Food-relateds, (IHK, BLM, DLM, DL, etc.)
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs', as EVB's, just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (many depr. stocks and Techs getting bounces already, so we do not 'pay up') added, AKAM, BANR, INCY ?, CHRS, INSP, NWSB, SRTI, SCMR, SIL, MXR, VRA, ITT, LOR, NSM, NEM, ITXC, TERN, NEM, GT, PKS, LDG, SEM, NTOP, LRCX, ANAD, VRGE, ARIA, CELL, ATHM, SCR/A, FWC, FTBK, WCG, UAL, DD, ATI. ?, CHB, HRP, IN, PER, CRO, PBY, to, INAP, KOPN, EGLS, COHU, BMG, TSP, AIR, FBN, LBRT, KLAC eh, LZB, BSX, DT, CMOS, GEB, to, CDO, FCS, APN, SRR, AEN, OPI, IFMX, DLX, CSDS, NCI, NWK, CMTN, IIT, AAPL, HLIT, STSA, MU, LOJN, CVD, DLTK, OBJX, PRGN, MSTR, PHC, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR, MLS, JDN....close stops again....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, AMRI, CERN, CIMA, EXBD, INFA ?, NTRS, APC, APH, FNM, FRE, CMX, FRX, GIS, MRK, ORI, STT, MTB, to, CAH, XOM, FNM, SEI, RKH, NBR, RDA ?, FVB, NEU, to, CPL, MNY, PPL, RJR, SPC, TDW, DA, CTIC, DME, DUK, HP, EXC, HCA, to,
(repeats) DFXI, ELF, IPL ?, ESRX, COF, MANH, FPC, JNJ, GUC, EPG, HBC, DDIC, PHA, MKL, CHCS, IMPH, IMGN, OSIP, CGP, MRX, CHKP, BLDP, PLXS, from recent past NL's....again, note smaller list....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Utilities, Insur., REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Electronics, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all 'not-down-yet Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES