1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1)cash Crude Oil popped back up to 49.55, Mon., no sweat, keep in mind, its 50 DMA is still just above, around 50., and, when/if it falls below recent 45+ low, would definitely fall to my/that 40-41 support area, watch for that ahead .... 2) you got yet another l.t. takeover I gave out herein from lows - twice....HLYW had that l. fobd recently, then 9+ to 13, as i alone predicted herein, you're welcome.... 3) oh, and lest you for-no-logical-reason still are bullish on Gold up here, at recent $ 449 oz., know that, I just read that, evidently, now, the ''net long position within mutual funds in gold" is at an all-time high, hmmmm, and, "the net long position in speculative commod. accts." as well, get it ?, U know what to do, using my ?PSYCLE sm", ay ?
5) the DXY fell to new multi-year low 82.97, but i say, wb a fobd, soon ! ....a new rumor has Japan stepping up, as their econ. strengthens a bit, to buy US dollars....take that, dollar-perma-bears....and, the real DXY low was in 6/95, was at 80.14, evidently....
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, your Govt., etc.:
1) true, in July anyway, evidently, 'foreign purchases of USA debt paper fell a bunch, to just $ 4.5 B, then up to $ 19.1 B in August....I guess China/Japan, etc., are being pressured into not buying our paper....gee, they have such a lousy l.t. past t.r. of purchases-ptiming over the decades, i still do not worry - but they HAVE been slowing their purchases ....but remember, IMHO only as usual, they already own like $ 3 trillion in dollars, to whom are they gonna sell ?, themselves ?, and, as I said B4 herein (alone, as usual, again), when/if they sell dollars, their remaining holdings will FALL in value, hutring themselves as well, dig ?, get it ? the USA remains the best place for bucks ...
TRA's latest dollar-bashing article, 'warned of Russia selling some DXY reserves', supposedly to 'hurt' us, dgms....Russia's dollar reserves had GROWN from 68 B to 113 B in the last 12 mos., so they have been buying dollars DURING a price decline, so how smart could they be anyway, I say....just FYI, as I said earlier, China holds about $ 474 B. in us dollar reserves....no biggie....
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) hey, according to latest J. Maudlin, also, contrary to what the 95 % idiots are saying, did U know that the country of China is actually strarting to running a trade DEFICIT with many of IT'S trading partners, and, as a country, is starting to run such a deficit OVERALL ??!!, hah.... 2) once again, notice that, only now, after theyt failed to predict-warn anyone about the DXY decline, right ?, only now do we see articles abounding, of the ilk, "howe to protect yourself against a decline in the dollar" - dgms....
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) the overrated John Maudlin, after quoting how the 95 % of all finl. & media stmts. lately have been super-bearish on the DXY 9only dn here, but i digress), still fails to realize that 100 % sentiment cannot endure similarly fopr much longer, ay ?, YOU know what to look for with the DXY, soon, yes ? ....2) more pot. good 'fading' news, as Jim often-wrong ever-bear Grant, now predicts that, "the new US dollar bear mkt., will precipitate a new Bond bear downmove, up in yields"....he specifically LINKED IR's with the diollar....a move so incorrect and ignorant, since they both have moved NOT opposite, but IN TANDEM, so often, in recent years, i wonder if he bothered to view a simple l.t. charts of the two, dgms....next....and people pay him for such drivel ?, and he gets such Finl. Media free publicity and undue fame and money ?, jeez....and TDR/TRA's Richebacker echoes those sentiments, oy....they all, again, as in every quarter the past few decades, predict the end of the world, dgms....
3) and, now, Goldman S. & 1st Boston joined list of big stupid b-firms 'raising their stk. px. targets on GOOG" to $ 215. or so....gee, still not much higher than current 177, get it ?, so, of course, we want to watch for the crack below 160, yes ?
e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) normally i wouldnt print this, but i was shoicked to see that Afghanistan's revenue is booming !, like, opium trade up, literally, a ton, generating ...
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much
better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of
other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential
emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
still more quick, large % Gains:
3 more Longs, neat....
and,
2 more Puts:
as you have always done, please read them carefully and VIEW their charts
carefully, to learn patterns....note, "s.o.m.", means, 'stock bt. on margin" (hypothetically)
1/2 pos. s.o.m. NLY (16 to 19+) + big div., for % G....1/2 pos. puts BIIB (62+ to 54+) for VQ % G....1/2 pos. puts GOOG (200- to 160+) for VQ % G....bal. s.o.m. TSM, puts FSH, s.o.m. PLXS (10+ to 14+), for Q big % Gains....bal. puts Nat. Gas (9.4- to 6.7+) for VVQ % G....1/2 pos. stk. DCEL (1.20 to 1.90) for Q % G....1/2 pos. stk. AGR.B (1.10- to 1.30+) for % G....
and/but, longs, bal. RPMM ?, and, puts, cash Gold, for quick, mostly very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio ....are you learning the pattern ? if not, why not ?
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not
on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
again, "just get real close" to
suggested prices:
1/3 BMRN @ 4+,
PMCS 15.2 % recons w/-30 % ds prot. below 9.5 w/pmcs @ 9++, 1/3 ACCL @ 5 3/4, ISSI. fobd @ 7, ISIL @ 15.2, STTS fobd ?, 1/3 ISIS again @ 4.22 fobd ??, 1/4 LENS @ 1.80,
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions'): SEHO @ 0.14 fobd ?, RPMM bd ?, 1/4 SVNT @ 2.- fobd....
remember, near major market turns/bottoms, you have been taught many times,
to "stick around and give stocks a bit more leeway, as to 'fobd's', etc.,
continuing to stay in, diversify more, allow for more risk, etc.", yes ? hence
the questions about 'fobd's', and buys that say 'fobd', right ? but some normal,
usual, QSL's still occur and are accepted along the way with no emotion nor
incompleting trading my way, right ? you're welcome....
*** Important: took, MCCC, LFP, ELY fobd ?, and a few from the 'just missed' list below, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms, nor tops....and, most 'missed' ideas just below, were also 'removed', to keep immediate potential Buy lists smaller for you....
1/3 NAZ @ 2,100+, DJIA @ 10,550+, QQQ @ 39, non, 1/2 GYI. @ 60-, 1/4 GOOG @ 199-, XTXI. @ 42, DTV @ 18, 1/3 BPFH @ 26++, EVG @ 41+, RDN @ 51++ ?? eh,
"Repeats":
UCBH @ 40+, AD @ 33, STJ @ 78 ? again, copper again around 1.47+,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, FDX, FMD, YUM, CMA, WLP, DST, and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, herein)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list (although expect some "fobo's" along the way, have patience)....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently specifically given you herein, in sections
(6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", SNPS, CGFW, CEGE, TSIC, AFCI, ALTH, SPRT, HLYW, ESPD, UMC, SGI, WTSLA, CRAY, VSTA, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, TIE, KMB, lumber, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs (obviously, they were removed from sec. (7).... Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein ....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, while hopefully stopping losses smallishly....
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., and/or strong(er):
also be sure to VIEW charts of all given winners lately from last few NL's, to
learn the patterns yet again:
LENS 2.27 up 0.39, AGR.B 1.39, NLY 19.50, WM 41.04, TSM 8.77 (S), CPN 3.42, PLXS 14.51 sos, L. 10.62 sos, up/further since last NL here....
and, these are either pulling back, or bouncing, after expected pb's already occuring/occured:
RMBS 22.90 up, bmsf, 21.90, ACCL 6.50 up, 6.22, ISIL 16.31 pb, CMOS 7.80, 8.20 msf, STTS 5.95 up, vstbo, 5.72 no, LSCC 5.17, 5.45....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking "must strengthen" or
else, yes ?)
ISIS 4.25 bd ? ms, 4.41, PLNR 11.41 stbo, msf, JBLU, WM, PSY cbdst ?, sos, LSCC msf, ESST msa, CNN (S) ?, BCGI. ctbo ?, ELY sos, MESA sos, SVNT 2.35 fo, 2.02 bopb, 2.19 mcsf, RPMM 0.15 bd (S) ?....RMBS msa, SUNW....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check
their patterns out to learn:
GOOG -5 (L), COMPX 2052, DJIA 10432, QQQ 38.48, GYI. -1 1/2, down/lower since last time here....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):
these must
weaken anew:
EVG, UCBH (fo)bo ?, BIIB +5, GOOG +16, DJIA, QQQ, COMPX, PFCB sow, GYI. +2 1/2, BKMU bo ?, BPFH, BKS 342 split ?, STJ +3, 2-4-1 split, sow, XTXI. ctbo ?, Copper posas, ACAT, RDN ?, are and/or up/dn, bouncing, when they should be falling more....
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-bottoms, (but, again, Not
when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much,
off lows, right ?
some Depressed:
*** in
lieu of IGR here, just do those individual stocks below, they tend to be depessed....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, some have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not popped up too
much too fast recently, already, before you buy, and, note I took some off list
already),
understand, some of these stil need more work/pullbacks....this list
will be revised over each weekend....
added:
added these, note list growing as mentioned above:
note how many
previously-given 'fobd's' are being re-added !
'opbo', means 'on pullback
only', yes ?
I removed a bunch more....then added some fobd's and new ones,
as usual....as you have been taught, be patient and selective:
of course, from
here, most are ONLY on/after pb's, yes ?
but, now, 10/5, many are already up, so only buying them near lows - but you knew that....
obviously, many have already bounced, so oopbo for most, yes ?
added, CGFW, to, ESPD opbo, BMRN, DSPG, ACCL tln, PMCS opb, ISIL opbo, JBLU & recons opbo, PCLE tln, MESA tln, CY, TSIC fobd ? tln, to, ARRS mtln, CEC opb, CMOS tln, CHINA, ESST mtln, ESPD ?, SCUR, STTS, SKIL ?, DCS yield ?, NOK eh, KKD ?, SWY bd ?, T. tln, FHCC tln, SNPS ?, AHT obpbo, ADLR mi, KVHI. tln, RFMD tln, GOLD tln, OATS evb, SCH opbo, LUV obpbo, SGI. obpbo, PKS ltp ?, SUNW tln, to, SEHO obpbo, WEBM, MCDT opbo, DCLK tln, CPWR ny, BCGI. obpbo, RPMM no ? bd ?, RNWK opbo, TSM tln, DCN nah, TWR eh, AHT obpbo, NYB ?, SONSE, SYNO ?, LSCC opb, ISIS opb, NITE obpbo, SANM obpbo, COMS ? hmmm, CPN obpbo, TQNT d, opbo, (incl. several pot. L.T. high-level consolidation db's ?), CLTK obpbo, ADCT ovbpbo, ROXI. stbd ?....
and, new, via a VG website for charts, ets., called "www.stockcharts.com'. a list of ''depr. ovsld. stks. with an improving RSI, NAZ".....= DCEL, ECLG, PUPS, TSIC, WTSLA ?, eh....and these are "bullish MACD crossovers, Naz" = CTVHE, OCRI, PKCY, UAMA, XOMA, SINX....will watch 'em....so far, not bad, ay ?
and, including, for pot. price rises, plus pot. high-dividends/interest while
you wait ?
added, PMCS 15.2 % recons w/PMCS @ 9.33, w/ -30 % d/s port., DCS ?, JBLU 14 % recons, w/JBLU near 20 firm, ZF obpbo, EVC obpbo, to, CNN obpbo, PSY obpbo,
and, watching 2 cdn. o & g. royalty trusts, C.AY.U, and C.NAE.U, (APF energy trust, & NAL o & g trust), but both around 11-12 now, so too high ?, yielding 15 5 each here anyway ?, eh,
and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding
bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals'
homework on all, especially the lesser-known/cheaper ones....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
note: as always, because so many patterns have changed, be sure to view
each of these, B4 acting on any !, recent drops to s.t. support means only 'put' these after rallies towards highs, right ?, so removed a bunch, with recent drops....and may remove more, so chk. charts B4 considering:
note, finally removed some stks which had, obviously, already worked big-time, or broken out, belatedly....
added, s.t.o., DJIA, QQQ, NAZ, NDX ?, to, GOOG oso, GYI, GCD ?, to, XTXI, BIIB, STJ oso, RDN ?, BKMU bo ?, from recent past NL's....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order,
and/but, understanding we have already HAD some real nice drops:
added, Extended: (for I.G.'s, please see sec. (2) above, from now on, , all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs.... this ends our putside-downside follow-ups/ideas
section....
general note: as per my teachings, WITHIN some industry groups, there
may be bpth, extendeds, and depresseds, as recently, certainly normal....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES