1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I
put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit
learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3). Note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items in section (2).
Please learn not to ever overemotionalize/worry about/extrapolate, any "most recent past" performance forward, "PSY-chologically", because you may miss the next bunch of Gainers, Longs or Puts, while you are "ruminating about the last batch", dig ? Just because the "last few" may not have worked, does NOT mean "the next few" will not....in historical FACT, the vast majority of "PSYCLE sm" ideas HAVE indeed worked, real well, in all market conditions, way better than any other approach, for many years now, as you have seen....it is one's inner "psyche and expectations" which might be sometimes too anxious, too impatient, too fearful, too S.T., or too demanding, at times. Also, do not expect to mirror my/our recent excellent long-side performance forever....Now, to the Good Stuff:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning,
and still remaining long in them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) Notes: 1) note recent follow-through rises in the Paper stocks, which I was, again, the first/only to give out, herein, near their lows....see ? (they were: GCR, GLT, CHA, PAP, AIN, FJ, WY, please view all their charts). The PSY-chological dynamic there, was that, like everybody else, YOU probably Ignored the Paper stocks, because "they were/are 'seemingly' so UN-sexy, with no 'hot story', no 'perceived' volatility, etc." yeah, right.... See, that's one key to the success of doing things the "PSYCLE sm" way....NOT "needing action", and never "prejudging" any Industry Group. Huge, valuable LESSONS to learn, which I have shared with you many times in my materials. Other stocks, like the REIT's and Utilities and old-line Blue Chips which I have given herein as great Call options (see, CIV, CEI., RN, BS, X., among others) also fall into the category of "great trades, yet/but incorrectly-perceived-as-non-sexy" by "the 95 %".... 'nuff said.... 2) can't argue with breakout in DJ Utility avg. ? But the historically mediocre "Dow Theorists", who, as I mentioned here back then, got Bearish near the Aug./Sept. Lows, because the Utils. and Trans. Avgs. made new lows (remember ?), are now actually questioning the recent rises, "until and unless the Trans. Avg. makes a new high, i.ew., only after they rise up another 25 % from here"....dig ? Gosh, I have always hated that illogic....that's like saying, "I won't buy the stock near its low, but I will buy a simple, obvious potential breakout, paying much higher prices, and just guessing...." Gee, then will you also hold it during its "PSYCLE sm" stage 2 pullback ? Ridiculous.
3) Obviously, Energies nor Basic Materials stocks not participating here, as expected pullbacks since we "took" large % quick Longside Gains for you herein a little while ago, as the "whipping buys" of current craziness....but, as long as they retain their patterns, they DO remain buys as recently suggested, on pullbacks....see sec. (3) and (6) below....4) while I did give many EVB Financials here (brokers, banks, insur.) as buys right near lows, in Oct., I am now puzzled as to how some of them are trying to/getting slightly above their 200 DMA's here ....on hindsight, they are tring to look like H & S bottoms with real high right shoulders....but we just do not buy "breakouts"....so I have NO opinion on them here....hey, maybe they will also be "slight fakeout breakouts" ? ....5) having correctly caught the Internets tops from March/April, then had a few Q, S losses earlier in them, then having stepped back from them recently, I am, as of 10:30 am, Tues. 24th, looking at the EBAY, AMZN, INKT, as new Puttable internets again (besides MSPG, XCIT, already in the Puts in)....NOW getting to very, very late stage 4 in their "PSYCLE sm"....of course, the same caveats I mentioned in section (8) below, recently, apply.... 6) A.G.Edwards analyst on CNBC, 11/25, 9:20, now loves the already-real-extended Drugs, Supermarkets, Blue Chips, saying that a favorite, Albertsons, has "guaranteed growth in earnings and stock price" from here....gee, I just added it as a Put.... 7) last, note potential "double-tops" forming in the DJIA and the S & P (SPX), indexes, themselves, though, again, we do NOT trade indexes....other related Indexes have has slight breakouts above their potential "right-double-tops", so being real careful, as I said.
b) more incorrect/improper/misleading/late Media/company/announcements, vs. illogical stock price moves: 1) Mon. 11/23, the CEO of PRI. Automation, said, (quote) "we believe that this may be the bottom of the cycle and that business conditions are neginning to improve...." yet, PRIA stock, already up a ton, from its "PSYCLE sm" low/saucer, from 10-12, to 23+ now, see it ? first, this is perfect stage 2 behavior, right ? Even the CEO was not bullish near the lows....second, only after intial rise from base, does he get "cautiously bullish" ....2) cnbc, Mon. 23rd at the close, reporter said, "a record day for number of takeovers and corporate announcements"....see, I am trying to find "sentiment" S.T. top-type comments for you....Tue. 24th, 8:15 am, cnbc, Mark Haynes said, "what of our record-breaking rally ?", and, "now that the market has set new records, how high will it go ?" huh ? what new records ? the vast majority of stocks are still nowhere near new highs....and, your local newspaper likely had front-page headlines about "market surges to record", yes ? also note, Haynes said "will", and not "might"....still trying to find "S.T. sentiment top" signals for you.... 3) a MF analyst on cnbc, Tue. 24th, 8:30 am, explaining why he was so bullish now (get it ?), said, "Russia is not relevant" as a world fundamental factor....Gee, I seem to recall everyone saying, as we were Falling, months ago, that the Russia situation WAS indeed quite relevant, and worrisome, don't you ? So, once again, we see the FOLLY of trying to employ "external" stuff, anyway.... When stocks were falling, "Russia" somehow was big worry, right ? But when we are rising, the same Country, which still has massive, real economic problems, doesn't matter anymore, dig ? Ditto Asia....yeah, right....Re-read my "Media" booklet.... 4) cnbc, 11/25, 7:20 am, gal reporter, had "the boys at the WSJ", covered, "the worst performing sector around" (false), Oil Svc., with Salomon Bros. still even more pessimistic about HAL, and SLB, saying "the outlook only gets worse"....a big Bank also continued "slashing their eps estimates by 25 %, their 3rd such cut in 1998, totalling 67 %", for DO, and PDE....Interesting, since, as you know,
1) my "PSYCLE sm" was the first/only to correctly give Puts on the Oil Svc. stocks, last Dec., then, 2) give each, of two bottoms in O.S. stocks recently, and, 3) while the CNBC woman reporter INcorrectly actually said, "will they ever find bottoms ?" (unbelieveable), most of the O.S. stocks are still already UP, + 33-50-75 % from their given "PSYCLE sm" lows --- INTO supposedly "worsening fundamentals/earnings", dig ? Just as with the Asian stocks, and the Coppers, Alums., Rails, Steels, etc. And just as I teach you to notice and take advantage of....Are you learning how to do this more and more ?
c) the most recent "short sale" ratio on the NYSE and NASDAQ, is evidently, at the lowest (potentially bearish, as a contrary indicator, dig ?) level, since 1992....and, Investors Intelligence "bullish NL writers" number is also its highest, since early 1992....FYI, 1992 saw a mid-year Dow top around 3,400 then a drop the second half, to 3,100....of course, rotating I.G.'s moved independently, throughout, as usual, but my message continues to not be dissemtinated nationally, and few investors are bearish on much, outside the Internets, before they have risen another 50-100 %.
d) more overrated analyst NL writers, prognosticators comments: 1) Mon., 23rd, a CNBC guy said that Ralph Acampora was now calling for 12,000 Dow soon....then, Tues., they say he said 10,000....hmmm....see, while he Was correctly bearish at 9,300, but then still bearish most all the way up from the lows, until very recently, now he gets super-bullish again ? Plus, obviously, even Dow 10,000 is still "only" another 6.8 % higher, not very much, ay ? We need the Media to preface every opinion given by everybody, with their actual L.T. past track record, yes ? never happen.... 2) but, realize, here, NOT ONE SINGLE person, in recent media sources, print, papers, NL's, Finl. T.V., is calling for a retest of Dow 7,400, or even 8,400, from here, dig ? The only guys calling for big drops, are the same bearish-all-the-way-up-for-years-now guys.... 3) Business Week, 11/30 issue: article, titled, "At IBM, Nothing but Big Blue Sky", showing a stock price chart, from June, with the words, "Into the Big Blue Yonder"....way up here, at $ 160+, get it ? ....4) Tues., 24th, KWHY -tv reporter said, Gerald Appel and Joe Granville, are now both pointing out potential S.T. Negative divergences, between the Indexes, and their A/D breadth lines, lagging, which I have also been seeing.
5) this is a potentially great item, seeing as I recently mentioned Value Line: L.A. Times, 11/20, article, "Analysts Wave Red Flag at these 5 Stocks" --- your gonna love this one....staff writer got V.L. to give its 5 "worst" stocks, ranked "5" all around, to be 'avoided" at all costs, etc., dig ? Well, they were/are: NOV, SAMC, TTX, and, two stocks I have already correctly called BOTTOMS in, for you herein, AHG, and OIL....check them out....AHG is already UP a lot, and we took a large Gain in it here, yes ? Even as their "fundamentals" may be bad/ worse....As always the case with V.L., they ALWAYS write something like, "we would wait until we see concrete improvement in the fundamentals before we would consider these stocks", dig ? But, as you have hopefully learned, umpteen times here, one must buy depresseds, when their charts form bases, double-bottoms, or EVB's, BEFORE there is even a hint of "fundamental improvement announced publically", right ? Geez, you'd think after 30 years, V.L. would learn that.... oh, and in addition to their misleading-bordering-on-illegal "ranking track record" (don't get me started) I notice they have recently added supposedly "technical" ranking ratings, from 1 to 5 also....but, the last few months, their "technical" track record has pretty-much stunk as well....for instance, they had tons of extended "name' stocks as ranked 1 or 2, in July Aug.--- just before huge % drops in them, yes ? I wonder why no one in the mass Media has publicized this fact....Oh, yeah, I forgot, THEY are often ignorant and incorrect, as well, yes ?
6) last, this little gem: cnbc, Wed., 11/25, 7:35 am, when menitoning the Internet stocks, referencing the very famous book on "historical crowd psychology, manias, and the madness of crowds", (tulips, bubbles, etc.), the same female reporter from the Oil Service Industry story above, had actually not heard of one the most famous books in all of investing, asking, "oh, really ? what was the name of the book again ?" Yeah, like a reporter in FInl. Media TV, would ever read a valuable investing book....This again proves my continuing points regarding the shocking lack of actual, workable knowledge most of these people (do not) have, about even the most basic historical investing/financial items....Re-read my booklets, on "Media" and "Scenarios".
LEARN THIS: why do I tell the truth about V.L. ? Because, by nature, both their "rankings" are based mostly, on relative strength, and/or there being "good news and already L.T./growing earnings, etc." for highest ratings....So, again, V.L. and Daily Graphs, MUST, by definition, be most bullish (and they have ofetn been so) right AT the eventual TOPS of many individual stocks, get it ? Neither EVER buys ANY stock anywhere near its lows, because their flawed approaches have NO way of doing so !!! Actually, neither ever does Puts, from tops, either.... hmmmm....hey, maybe they should buy MY output....FYI, when I certainly did call those people, years ago, to offer my polite, respectful "complementary and valuable" services, I was treated with significant disrespect and ignorance. Seriously, that really happened....Anyway, "PSYCLE sm" tip: I have done VERY well over the years, buying V.L. stocks, which THEY liked much higher, after they Fall a bunch, and then form "PSYCLE sm" patterns, when those companies do retain their "good fundamentals", see ?
See how much better one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks (long, and/or puts), while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to "seek and process" tons of other, useless info., anyway, and remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
NOTE: while all the $ under 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, even higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying their stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- another "PSYCLE sm" benefit for you....stocks themselves have no premium, right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be smaller, though still excellent for so short a time period, yes ?
As taught in my "EVB/BDG" booklet: Note how some recent Longs have been "sold" in 1/2 and 1/2 positions, in 2 parcels, as previously suggested....this allows us to Control/Lower our risk further, and remove our Emotions, while still 'taking' Quick, Large % Gains....Also, when some stocks rise so much, so fast, it often does Not pay to "stick around to see what happens", in S.T. potential greed, because many of these stocks WILL pull back/correct....While there may be other buyables today, which look, today, like those recently Sold, looked, a few weeks ago, which may be better buys/holds than those "sold" up here, dig ?
**** New IMPORTANT note: LEARN THIS: with some of our recent S.T. depressed double-bottom (db) "W" stocks/formations, we are most likely going to sell 1/2 position on the "initial rise, to the top of the "W" formation", then, holding some back, in case those kinds of stocks do breakout above the "middle" of the "W" pattern, dig ? This way, we remove emotions, attachements, and we don't get over-excited with large % S.T. moves....We also lower our risk tremendously, from where 1/2 pos. is sold....Then, when/if those type of stocks fail to breakout, especially after a pullback, then, we consider selling the rest of our position, as near the top of the "W" formation as we can get....simple, effective. Again, nothing is "perfect"...."just get close(r)", and do everything else right.
* YOU MUST view/see/FIND where the 200 Day Moving Averages (DMA) are, on every single depressed EVB stock, ahead, here !!!! YOU MUST DO THIS....how else are you going to learn ? for instenace, as I said, In the larger perspective/scheme of things, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to Just have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", vs. their recently formed EVB's.
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, many more/new names here):
(new ones) NBTY @ 5 7/8, RRC @ 4 3/8, GLM @ 10+, CHK @ 1.34, PPP @ 12+, AIN @ 17++, WIT @ 19-, TGX @ 13+, MGN @ 2+, WGR @ 8-, CWC @ 8, COE @ 4.06, PIN @ 5+, LXR @ 15/16, CNU @ 2 1/8,
(repeats) (note, some newer repeats here also) BIR @ 4 7/8, LTV @ 5 3/8, GLBL @ 6, GLB @ 20+, RDC @ 11-, ESV @ 11, EEX @ 3 3/8, ULB @ 1 3/4, FLC @ 10+, BEV @ 5 13/16, FP @ 2 9/16, IPIC @ 3.06, HIV @ 2 5/16, UC @ 4-, CIA @ 5 7/8, CTI. @ 7 3/8, PDE @ 7 11/16, RDC @ 10 11/16, OIL @ 10, WEL @ 2 1/2, PCTL @ 6+, CCLR @ 2 11/16, TBP @ 6 7/8, MB @ 3 5/16, HEC @ 2 11/16, VDC @ 3 6/16, DHC @ 3 11/16, SEV @ 8 3/8, TXB @ 3 7/16, MSN @ 0.41, MSX @ 16+, VGZ @ 3/16, TOX @ 5/16, SSC @ 11/16, IIR @ 3 11/16, GW @ 1 3/16, WLM @ 11+, AXC @ 15/16, FLS @ 17+, BLM @ 2.06, Z. @ 8 1/8, PKD @ 4, CAU @ 0.31, TPS @ 11/16, MS @ 1.06, RYO @ 5/8....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/ traded" issues....and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", dig ? What does THAT tell you ? also see the "just missed" issues, below....And the "special list" below, in section (4), the last 3 NL's before this one, of some initially seemingly-broken patterns/stocks, which revalidated, and Rose a lot anyway, showing the power of "buying low", "The Psycle Way".
NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should already understand, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/ fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....
*** remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.
** Important: took, ATW, CTI., NX, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops: (new ones) UNPH @ 57-, JCOR @ 62-, CCRD @ 46+, METZ @ 43, MUEI. @ 23+, TSFW @ 37, GDT @ 88-, AOL @ 94-, BFO @ 58+, AGN @ 64-, CG @ 60+, GM @ 73++, ITN @ 67-, WH @ 22 1/2, (repeats) ACCOB @ 51-, BOBJY @ 20+, GEOC @ 29+, PRGN @ 38+, CMGI. @ 86+, FISV @ 48+, ELNK @ 57-, INTU @ 62, ELN @ 71, OMC @ 57-, ABS @ 57+, TFX @ 42+, GPU @ 45-, TLC @ 31-, ROH @ 37+, SUP @ 28-, MSPG @ 60-, GNE @ 74-, CMCSK @ 51-, XCIT @ 56+, SGP @ 107+, ASGN @ 37+, PRGX @ 32+, USM @ 37+, PPL @ 28-, GAS @ 44+, CCIL @ 65, SUT @ 48+, UIS @ 29+, PBI. @ 58-, AA @ 80+, GD @ 61-, CPWR @ 63, CL @ 94+....Note how we are revisiting/repeating Put Buys on some previously given puttable stocks, as they rise back up to originally suggested Toppy levels, dig ? and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know....and, note, too many minor breakouts all of a sudden, so am taking more real small, quick Puts losses above, and NOT fighting the tape....
and/but, Took, LGTO, NETA, VISX, EMR, CF, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's.
....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", NSANY, CTHR, CAI/B, SPF, TFT, SGE, KSF, IMH, IT, as Longs near very recent lows, and, TSFW, GCTY, VRTS, INKT, CVC, CVD, CXR, COX, TLD, ENE, as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this business, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the stocks here which we "just missed", also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
and, try to view these 1-year-past charts: note, add, EGGS 21 1/2 up 7 1/2, BNYN 9 1/2 up 4, NN 28-, R. 28+, to, TEK 26- up 2, SAVLY 23, PRIA 25+, ATMI. 19-, NOVL 18+, HTCH 34-, ALTR 53, ADPT 18, NMGC 21, COMS 41, KMAG 9-, CRUS 13, LTR 103, MER 75+, ICN 26+, MII. 29-, TSM 18, FDC 28, BEN, COT, HA, HNP 18, BT 84+, EQ 59, as going higher still....I gave you all of these herein, specifically, near their lows....oh, and, note the takeover in NSCP, a stock I also specifically gave early 1998 in my NL then, in its depressed base around $ 20. then, check it out....
please appreciate, that I have subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of mnay reaons why we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.
*** Note, how some "laggards" given you herein, are now popping, as the "early risers" ran into S.T. resistance....These types of "two-phased/staged rises, this "catch up" Industry Group Rotation, is taught in my "I.G.R.", and, "Downside" booklets, as it becomes "too late to expect huge rises from here" in many issues, as we become more careful again. (I am sure you have noticed, that these have always been listed, by "largest % moves, to smallest significant % moves")
(new comments)
*** the latest previously given-near-their-lows-here stocks, which most recently rose to, or around, their 200 DMA's, for your learning, view their charts to see patterns: add, AHG (note, hit right at its 200 DMA, Tues.), to, DNB, MII., UQM, COT,
**** WHAT WE WANT TO DO NOW: long-side: 1) find those still- depressed "PSYCLE sm" stocks which have not yet had their nice bounces, yet which still have decent EVB, or "double-bottom", or basing patterns, and/or, 2) among our stocks which HAVE already had big S.T. bounces, look to buy those/them again, when/if they pull back to/towards their recently depressed levels....
and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, PETC 9 3/4, WORK 6 1/2, TRMB, PSFT, LPX, APFC, UTI., PCMS, HEC, ADM, REXI., JBAK, NBTY, INPR, IPIC, PAGE, TWA, HOC, HXL, CMO, MAVK, CFK, LTV, SUL, TLZ, ELY, ATX/A, VOX, "Steels", BSRTS, PCMS, WLM, AXC, IHSC, HIV, BHI., BIR, GGC, NGX, SSC, MCN, VSNR, DAY, CCH, WTS, PKD, SHG, MSX, WLV, RYO, FLS, ZAP, UPX, WJ, GW, OO, WS, DX, NS, Z, pb (pulling back)....some of these are also in "ms" list below) again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues ....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification"
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* Note, how I, again, am giving you some Puttable stocks which are Falling, as most of "the market", and especially high-priced, name, quality-type stocks, rise, again....that I am among the very, very few, giving out ANY profitable puts, since early Sept. (and tons more, from March, and July, through Oct.) should be more than enough, yes ? also, see, PSUN, which I certainly DID give herein as a Put near its high, fell anew, to 17+, from 30+....
Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support"...."(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above)....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit.... remember, these are NOT "overnite" puts as trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... **** IMPORTANT, especially after recent drops, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables which are declining, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): SGP, INTU -4, GDT +2, USF +1 1/2, BOBJY, USCS, CCE, GAC, CPWR, ASGN, COLTY, GEOC, XCIT, ACXM, PDG, CMCSK, MSPG, PPDI., ELNK, ELN, CCIL, RCGI., VRTS, HDI., CMGI., BSYS, PBI., ACCOB, PRGX, BFO, MLM, GPU, UCM, EGR, CVS, GVA, PPL, PDG, PE, AA, DV, and all Internets must weaken/more. Note the V.S.T. volatility among Puttables in recent days....
and, CPWR, CMVT, GAC, may indeed also be breaking out, so you may find them also, on the "Q,S, loss list" next time in sec. (3) ? and, ANF, CAH, HDI., making new rally highs, so they may also not be ready yet....quite difficult, here for Puts. But you should be doing well in our Longsiders anyway, right ?
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
note how much smaller the Long-side lists have become, "after the mini-crash bounces":
"by Industry Groups":almost no great Bases here, just many EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", right ?):
Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, below.
Prec.Metals (CDE, GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, CAU, all real cheapies)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (IAD, WIT, BIR, WS, LTV, BS)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (EEX, GLM, MLR, WGR, PDE, PXD, MAVK, ESV, SAB, PPP, RRC, FEN, SEV, MHR, CHK, KSF, TRP, RDC, PXD, OIL, WEL, PKD, WLM, APA, BHI., IIR, NR, and, maybe, VRC, MHR, UTI., NOI.)
Biotech/Health/Medical (VTS, TGX, SHG, LXR, MT, TOX, IPIC, ULB, MGL, HIV, CCLR, TXB, BDR, TOX, BEV, MS)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (PRD, BBA, LDRY, BUR, KFI., MSN, OO, UNO, SGE, FTL, BLM, VCD, Z.)
Capital Goods (CWC, ROP, MSX, FLS, WJ, CTB, LDW)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (MIR, SER, JAMS, UDR)
Emplyment (JOB, MPS, BYL, RMDY)
And, again, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E./REIT/Financials/ Mtg.-type stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends, may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, WGR, LTC, KPA, CPP, GLB, AML, CRO, ENN, FCH, GRT, RFS, JPR, MAA, BNP, BOY, RWT, UDR, SIR, UC, FP, AMMB, CMO, AAC, IMH, CBG, TMA, FBG, FTR, SPF, DX, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
NOTE: as I said above, ON BIGGER PULLBACKS ONLY, stocks like our Oil Service, Golds, and Techs, may very well set up as depressed buys again, down the road.... as always, I will let you know at that time....have patience.
And, as I have been saying here, even though I have given you a ton of quick 50-100% gains, do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, as when I gave out similar "EVB" Techs, in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from the late '95 to early '96 period....I was first/only to do so near their lows at those times), because there are NOT many "true bases" here--- just some with good EVB's....we accept occasional Q, small losses in some longs, w/close stops, along the way ....Also note that many popping stocks are due to pull back, soon, after their recent/initial "dead-cat bounces". This is normal, and welcome.
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": ATW, CTI., NX, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are also Watching --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY (especially since mnay of these are too high to buy now, several which I removed from this list): add, CLCDF, to, those listed just above here, and, AFCI., ICA, ONX, CPU, INPR, RAIL, MLT, PSFT, TPS, LPX, BEZ, TWA, JDAS, DHC, VDC, UPX, TBP, THP, ZAP, CXI., ILX, TRMB, PHYC, WTT, PCMS, ELCO, MRVC, AXC, BMC, CYI., PIN, IV, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls."), and, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, CEPH, GNSA, OFIS, BUNZ, SEW, TSA, FNL, MGN, COE) some here, some Not just yet, as those need more work, technically.... and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows....and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows....and, again, some EVB's may still form double-bottoms ahead, so don't "force" trades....
NOTE: more than a few newly addeds here, are previously successfully traded stocks which are now pulling back....fitting the overall message of the recent market, above....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ?
Potential Puts list, near their highs ONLY: (note Longer list again): the "Recent Puts Buys from Section (3)" above, plus: LAMR, LCOS, TSFW, COMR, CDWC, CVC, AMCC, CEFT, VRTS, ASDV, SGY, ANF, RAD, CFR, TLD, UHS, PPDI., NEON, ZION, AVP, CCE, CAH, LIN, MLM, FDO, NMK, CBL, CBC, TYC, COST, PMCS, PRGS, PRGX, SUT, RCGI., INKT, ACXM, HSY, PGR, AAPL, ANF, DRI., QTRN, HB, EL, still, most all within:
the Best Puttable Industry Groups: still, adding Extended Aero./Def., to the extended Health/Medical/Drug, Utilities, Financials, all types of Telecommun., Golds, Supermarkets, Insurance, Computers, Retails, Internets, Food/Bev., High-PE techs, in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....also, some extended Biotechs and Banks have S.T. tops ? and, SUNW, QWST, CNTO, BSYS, as potential "hook" tops?
*** again, note, how, many Techs, Comp./Semis, Health-relateds, Steels, Metals, Financials, Airlines, Insur., Banks, Alum., etc., stocks, have done nothing more, recently, than just rise back up, towards their still-falling 200 DMA's/resistance, as taught in my "Downside" booklet....I showed this ON my T.V. appearance, 11/25....what does THAT tell you ? Remember, double-tops CAN have a right-top, higher, than their left-top, ditto "head & shoulders" tops....We may have a Q, S loss the first time, or in the middle, but we also are more likely to catch the eventual top, as taught in my "Downside" booklet, provided one stays with the strategy.
On Thanksgiving, today's brief message is to give Thanks, that, a) many "cycles" of all kinds, exist, that, b) one can profit from investment price movements, in BOTH, upside, and downside directions, much of the time, that, c) many sources of information, and Charts, exist, on and off the Internet, and that, d) my "PSYCLE sm" is learnable, in a relatively short time....I also give thanks that nice people like you, have what it takes to want to know and learn what I am able to share, and that I am so often able to give other people continual opportunities to make money, whether or not they take advantage....
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time.... just get close, and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some"
stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news
seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut
losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that
yet again.
*** Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two logical, service-oriented reasons: 1) to give You a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid" than other....I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create complete Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, and pension plans cannot even do options, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' CHARTS patterns, you will learn this quicker, yes ? While I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages, Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)