Jim Goodman's "The Right Side of the PSYCLE sm"
Stocks/Industry Groups Timing Newsletter, and Education service
"The Teaching Newsletter"....just Learn the Patterns and Concepts Taught....then View the Charts, and Choose from sec. (3), (6), (7) ideas.... NEWSLETTER, ended formally, back in mid-April 2000, with issue # 207+, a while ago....(so/but this NL is Not really being actually published formally, publically, any more, and has not been, for quite a while now ....I just wanted a place to keep track of what I would have said and done and felt, since I was forced undeservedly to stop my NL, months ago....this is ONLY for my own edification), and anyone reading this has NOT gotten it from me.... dated: 9:30 am, PST, Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2000

Important Note: this "NL" has No longer been publically available nor disseminated, for a while, due to gestapo, uncaring, ridiculous, illogical, NASD and SEC rules, and the uncaring, inconsiderate, and thoughtless nature of the brokerage firm with which I am currently associated....I am just doing a continual 'working version' forward, here, twice each week, to maintain and continue my real, actual, in-writing, in-advance, very-long-term track record, and to offer further significant 'proof' of the value and excellent timing experience of my "PSYCLE sm" concepts and teachings....

1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

Neat, look at the already-big Q gains among our depr. Techs. over the holiday, seasonality, as expected....even given some QSL's....also keep in mind, most of the normal "PSYCLE sm" tax-selling has been done, and many people have been turned-off, so we should be OK for a while on our longs, with close stops, yes ? there remain a ton of busted Techs the others loved from their highs, as usual, which are potentially buyable down here....or are you going to miss them yet again ? consequently, note the large number of potential buys long added in section (6) below....you know what that usually means....oh, and Arnold Bleichroeder Cp. says that with the 541 new lows on the NASDAQ on 11/22, the highest in so long, they believe, as you know I do, that that huge # of recent lows are likely to be 'it', for a while, as these stocks bottom ahead....

One can learn my normal H & S pattern by viewing our recent Put gainers, yes ? as usual, their first downside target, around still-rising 200-DMA.... recall my 3-weeks-ago mention that the AAII had only 8 % bearish members, before the recent EVB declines, dig ? and did you know, that supposedly, the -44 % decline so far in the NASDAQ index, is its largest since 1973-74 ?

While I am a bit shocked at some longsiders breaking for VS, QSL's here, this week's selling in NASD stocks should be, at worst, the beginning of the end of the 'tax selling' for this year, and, as you know, over the 20+ years I have been doing this, this season forward, has often been VERY good for "PSYCLE sm" traders, historically, into early the next year, etc.

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) though I certainly missed them (they had not properly set up anyway recently), many Paper stocks may do so, ahead.... 2) again, now that everyone else who missed them when I gave them to you herein from lows, loves the Tobacco, Insurance, stocks, well, you know what we did in section (7) below.... 3) and, many Telecoms continue to look EVB-like, as those who loved them at their highs wherefrom I put them herein for you, hate them now....the pattern NEVER changes, does it ? ....4) with the SOX semi. index making a new low, recall who was the first/only to give its very-obvious-at-that-time S.T. perfect "PSYCLE sm" rolling top, herein, for you, yes ? glad I could, again, help....where are the accomlades and the publicity ?

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Tue. noon, CNBC's Bob Pisani ridiculously said, "ANN stock is getting hit, from 37 to 30, on worries about earnings, etc." Funny, how, that's what 'they' also said when I was certainly the first/only to have given ANN as one of several correctly-timesd depressed Retail stocks near its/their lows herein, earlyier in Y2K ("but, Jim, Y2K fears, and the hot Internet buying sites are going to put bricks-and-mortar retailers out of business...." yadda, yadda, as usual, the pattern rarely changes....I also gave out ANN and similar others, in 1997-98 from $ 11-12 for up triple thereafter, remember ? ....2) 11/26 L.A.T., Mr. T.P. (Petruno, aptly named, ay ?) now says, "too much fear may spread from NASD stoicks to those not yet down, of blue-chip ilk", etc. Excuse me, but exactly which stocks would THOSE be ? Since, as you did not mention, probably 2/3 of "blue-chip' stocks are/were already down big-time, BEFORE the NASD stocks 'parabolicked', yes ? Then, he only showed table of 'blue chip bear markets' since 1956....which he never showed near their tops, when he could have been a more valuable resource, yes ? he seems to be bearish, now, on both, the NASD and blue-chips.... so you know what to do, yes ? contrarily fade him soon !

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) Barrons 11/20, "is the market to blame for PPS woes ?", gives normal BS 'reasons' (re-read my Booklet) supposedly 'why' PPS stock tanked -- when, I gave you its easily-seen rolling top formation....next.... 2) a story on CNBC, Tue. 11:50, actually said, that ALL "DSL" companies have "business models that were never built for profitability, even as demand continues to grow for their products/services"....can you believe that ? and they don't get arrested for taking VC and stockbuyers' monies ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Bernie Schaeffer, on Multex, 11/27, recently said (don't get me started) that, if Bush wins, the energy, tobacco, drug, and HMO stocks will do best, and, if Gore wins, the mortgage, banks, environmental stocks 'will benefiit most'....need I say more ? contrary-wise ? get it ? ....2) then, he now likes FITB, AIG, C, at tops mind you....oy....and, he dislikes NT down here, favoring CMVT up here instead....he really likes extended Insur. and Brokers from up here....he also dislikes CSCO down here, a point at which I actually like it, VSTO.... 3) MSDW now likes LU, unusual given its pattern and that they loved it all the way down.... 4) and the aptly named Motley Fool, recently said, "the stock market opportunities in network storage are huge" (where have they been the past few years ? but I digress), and loves, BRCD @ 220, VRTS @ 120, NTAP @ 80, EMC @ 85+....as you know, I was the first/only to have given these as Puts herein from recent highs for you....and, even if they turn oput to be correct S.T., what kind of small % gains might they have, vs. OUR kinds of stocks whehn we are correct ?

e) more general items proving why one should probably ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....

* Previously assumed Long positions most recently SOLD (showing the actual price changes, in parentheses, from the price where/when recently originally recommended herein, to the price where very recently Hypothetically "SOLD")....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few months' time holding period:

bal. calls BKS (17+ to 27++) for for L.T. 250% Gain....bal. puts BRCM (255-- to 100) for VQ 250% G....bal. puts AMCC (106+ to 54+) for Q 200% G....bal. puts IWOV (115 to 60+) for 200% G....bal. puts JNPR (235- to 111+) for Q 200% G....1/2 pos. calls MU (31 to 42-) for VQ 133% G....bal. puts SANM (115- to 88-) for VQ 100% G....all puts CHCS (39+ to 25) for VVVQ 150% G....1/2 pos. NVLS (28 to 35) for VVQ % G.....bal. puts CPN (51- to 44-) for 50% G....

and/but, longs, HLIT, IFMX, ENTU, NTOP, NOVL, FGH, TSP, MSTR, TERN, REV, AII. ?, OCN ?, APN, VIXL ?, GENE, 2nd pos. PAP ?, DPH ?, and, puts, FNM, EXC, THC, IPL ?, JNJ, EPG, UNH ?, MRK ?, GLH, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....and, OHI, for L.T. B.E., and, ORB (8 to 5 to 6 1/2) for slightly larger QSL....

NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium", right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these "hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest, then all losses....

* Newly/Additionally BOUGHT/Buyables, right around/near these prices only:

(either for Cash, especially in Pensions, and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above recent lows/highs):
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, most are still pretty low-priceds, read thoroughly, some new "repeats" and "revisited" "new" ones again, here): each alphabetically by symbol: again, "just get real close" to suggested prices:

1/2 pos. AKS @ , 1/2 pos. BBY @ 30++, BND @ 4.18, BTC @ 2+++, 1/2 pos. CCC @ 5, 1/2 pos. FCS @ 16++, LRCX @ 16-, 1/2 pos. MRBA @ 5.18, NWK ny ?, 1/2 pos. PBY @ 4+, 1/2 pos. PGA @ 2 1/2, 1/2 pos. RRRR ?, SEM @ 10-, 1/2 pos. SOL @ 4, 1/2 pos. WBPR @ 9- ?

"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAPL @ 18+, AII. no, ALI. @ 2, AMAT @ 40+, AMC @ 8, ARJ @ 18-, BGO @ 0.405, BMG @ 1.37, CX @ 20, DDR @ 12, DPH @ 13++, EGLS @ 13 3/4, ENN @ 6-, F. @ 24-, FUN @ 18+, FRT @ 19, GY @ 7 5/8, HA @ 1 7/8, ICIX @ 15, IHK @ 1, KDE @ 12, MDS @ 14-, MOT @ 20++, NCI. @ 3 5/8, NVLS @ 28++, OCN no ?, ODP @ 6 5/8, OPI. @ 6-, PAP no, PDG @ 8-, PKS @ 14+, PRGN @ 15+, RAD @ 3-, SKS @ 9+, UAL no ?, VIXL no ?, WCOM @ 15...."buy (only) low", right ?
.
** Important: took, FBR, FWC, ATHM, LBRT, MSTR, PRD, SRV, BSX, VRGE, ITXC, EYE, SILCF, SCMR, AKAM, WCG, INSP, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....

**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS" (or "short sales" if no puts), for potential Drops:
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. GIS @ 42-, 1/2 pos. ORI. @ 27+ ?

"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') CHCS @ 40-, CIMA @ 69, CMX @ 12+, DA @ 30-, DME @ 24+, DUK @ 87++, DV @ 39+, EXBD @ 46, FRE ?, HBC @ 75+, HCA @ 42, IPL @ 23+, MRK ???, PHA @ 59++, SEI. @ 16+, TDW @ 47++, UNH no ?,

and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?

*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", KLAC, ARIA, SRR, NEM, OXY, NSM, INCY, HEB, VRA, BKC, SWC, CNXT, GPC, HRP, LEA, TSM, NSM, AMD, CEL, JH, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AGC, LLY, PGR, APH, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?

*** All previously mentioned ideas are Followed-up here below, for your Educational/Trading benefit....check these lists/issues briefly, to see if any YOU own, or are considering owning, are mentioned....

4) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of them, unless otherwise noted):

(* too late to buy up here, usually up already, and/but acting A.O.K., so stay in these, long, for now):

**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).



acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
PRGN 19 7/8 up 4 7/8, BMG 1.68 up 0.31, AMAT 48 5/8 up 8 5/8, NVLS 36 up 5 1/8, 29-, MU 42 1/2 up 8 3/4, CVD 9 3/4 up 1 1/2, ICIX 16.97 up 1.97, CC 14.93 up 1.69, DLM 7 1/2 up 1/2, WCOM 16 3/4 up 1 3/4, MDS 15 1/8 up 1, AMC 8.43 up 0.43, CMH 10 3/8, SKS 9 7/8, DLX 23 1/2, FRT 19 5/8, WBPR 9 3/8, higher, since last time here ....and, TKR 25+, BKS 28, even higher still....

and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks, and more bounces after pullbacks:
PDG 8.43, 9.31, HCM 5 5/8, VOD 34, 37, 34-, ARG, ALI. 2, AMAT 45+, 40+, 42+, OPI. 6.18, GLT, DPH, KOPN 12 1/4, FON, F., DLTK, PRGN 16 1/2, PKS, DLX 22 1/2, MU 34++, SVRN, SOL, PMTC, NVLS 29-, ATYT, HA, PLL, LGTO, CC 13 1/2, GIGA, WCOM 15 1/8, ICIX 15, MOT 20++, ENN....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....


and/but, these already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:


(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above ....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen" or else, yes ?) AM, AII, STEI., KDE, DPH 13 1/2, IHK, VOD, CHINA 8 1/2, MRCH, UAL 35, FMT 4-, TSP, SOL 4, AAI, RAD, OCN, PMTC, MOT, FON, BNP, PLL, ORB 5 1/8, 6 1/2 (S), VIXL 4....

5) Already given out in previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:

(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* may too late to "begin" to buy puts on these stocks now, but they are acting properly, stick around:

Puttables specifically given you herein, many which are Falling/further since last time here:
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: BRCM - 30 (S), BRCD -27, CHCS -16 (S), GUC -6, EXBD -6 1/4, CIMA -8, DA -3 3/4, AIG -2 1/2, HCA -2, EXBD -2, GR -2, DA -1, CMX -1 1/2, CBL, GIS, down further since last NL here....and, ACF, CPN, CHP, GR, PWER, CHCS, fell towards/to their 200 DMA....and, PLMD 25 dn 25, NEWP 60+, DTPI. 30, ARTG 30, DF 27, down even further still, and are probably done on the downside soon....

* But, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew, nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness ("sow"):

: UNH -4, +8, -3, HBC +2 1/2, NBL, IPL, SEI, AIG +3, TDW +1, -2 1/2, PHA +2, RJR, GUC +3,-2, HCA, DUK +1 1/2, XOM, MRK +1, KRB +1 1/2, the DJ. Util. Avg....this ends our 'Downside' follow-ups for this NL....

6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists, of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down):

Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but, again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", much, off lows, right ?):


and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, ENN, CWN, AMC, DDR, MLS, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, FUN, CRO eh, HRP, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (F, DPH, AN, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (BMG, BGO, N, AKS, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys (CCL, RCL, HAS), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (XRX, SVRN, OCN ?, IFS)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? MWL, CEL, PHI, DT, IIT, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, CCC, ROH, DD, GY), also, Retail (KM, CNS, ODP),
Health-relateds (ALU, SOL, SRV, ALI)
Food-relateds, (IHK, BLM, DLM, DL, etc.)
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs', as EVB's, just below....

* The stocks on this next list, are also, still, Current, or, Potential, "EVB's" ("exhaustion V bottoms"), read that Booklet !):

We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double" bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while, allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if suitable, yes ?

added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken, before you buy, if at all) added, ELNK, RRRR, CUBE, BRKS, BTC, GEB ?, HEB, BKC, PMD ?, AWE ?, FCS, BBY, REP, FTU ?, UIS, WSM, CBR, MRBA, TKR, ARM, FRT, GPC, DOL, JH, HIB, OMX, ADLAC, AMKR, APCC, BMCS, STXN, PRIA, WBPR, to, BANR, INCY ?, CHRS, NWSB, SCMR, SIL, MXR, VRA, ITT, LOR, NSM, GT, PKS, ANAD, LDG, SEM, LRCX, VRGE no ?, ARIA, CELL, SCR/A, FTBK, UAL no, DD, ATI. ?, CHB, HRP, IN, PER, CRO, PBY, to, INAP, KOPN, EGLS, COHU, BMG, AIR, FBN, KLAC, LZB, DT, CMOS, GEB, to, CDO, FCS, SRR, AEN, OPI, DLX, CSDS, NCI, NWK, CMTN, IIT, AAPL, STSA, LOJN, DLTK, OBJX, PRGN, PHC, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....

'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR, MLS, JDN....close stops again....

7) other, still Extended/potentially Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, wait for bounces):
(re-read my "Downside/Puts" booklet): Potential Puts list, by I.G.'s where practical, near their Highs, ONLY --- do NOT "chase down" much: note: this list supercedes all previous ones....these are the ONLY Puttables here, as all others have been Removed:

* add, AMRI, CERN, CIMA, EXBD, INFA ?, NTRS, APC, APH, FNM, FRE, CMX, BA, XL, MO, PPL, CLX, PGR, FRX, GIS, MRK, ORI, STT, MTB, to, CAH, XOM, SEI, RKH, NBR, RDA ?, FVB, NEU, to, CPL, MNY, PPL, RJR, SPC, TDW, DA, CTIC, DME, DUK, HP, HCA, to,
(repeats) DFXI, ELF, IPL ?, ESRX, COF, MANH, FPC, GUC, EPG, HBC, DDIC, PHA, MKL, IMPH, IMGN, OSIP, CGP, MRX, CHKP, BLDP, PLXS, from recent past NL's....again, note smaller list....

**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and, understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least Semi-parabolic: Utilities, Insur., REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Electronics, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all 'not-down-yet Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....

VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE PATTERNS/STAGES