1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:
7) other, still Extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using,
Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort
to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, at least:
a) Important Industry Group
(Rotation) notes:
1) though I certainly missed them (they had not properly set up anyway recently), many Paper stocks may do so, ahead.... 2) again, now that everyone else who missed them when I gave them to you herein from lows, loves the Tobacco, Insurance, stocks, well, you know what we did in section (7) below.... 3) and, many Telecoms continue to look EVB-like, as those who loved them at their highs wherefrom I put them herein for you, hate them now....the pattern NEVER changes, does it ? ....4) with the SOX semi. index making a new low, recall who was the first/only to give its very-obvious-at-that-time S.T. perfect "PSYCLE sm" rolling top, herein, for you, yes ? glad I could, again, help....where are the accomlades and the publicity ?
b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or
improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, etc.:
1) Tue. noon, CNBC's Bob Pisani ridiculously said, "ANN stock is getting hit, from 37 to 30, on worries about earnings, etc." Funny, how, that's what 'they' also said when I was certainly the first/only to have given ANN as one of several correctly-timesd depressed Retail stocks near its/their lows herein, earlyier in Y2K ("but, Jim, Y2K fears, and the hot Internet buying sites are going to put bricks-and-mortar retailers out of business...." yadda, yadda, as usual, the pattern rarely changes....I also gave out ANN and similar others, in 1997-98 from $ 11-12 for up triple thereafter, remember ? ....2) 11/26 L.A.T., Mr. T.P. (Petruno, aptly named, ay ?) now says, "too much fear may spread from NASD stoicks to those not yet down, of blue-chip ilk", etc. Excuse me, but exactly which stocks would THOSE be ? Since, as you did not mention, probably 2/3 of "blue-chip' stocks are/were already down big-time, BEFORE the NASD stocks 'parabolicked', yes ? Then, he only showed table of 'blue chip bear markets' since 1956....which he never showed near their tops, when he could have been a more valuable resource, yes ? he seems to be bearish, now, on both, the NASD and blue-chips.... so you know what to do, yes ? contrarily fade him soon !
c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or
improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc.,
vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future stock price moves:
1) Barrons 11/20, "is the market to blame for PPS woes ?", gives normal BS 'reasons' (re-read my Booklet) supposedly 'why' PPS stock tanked -- when, I gave you its easily-seen rolling top formation....next.... 2) a story on CNBC, Tue. 11:50, actually said, that ALL "DSL" companies have "business models that were never built for profitability, even as demand continues to grow for their products/services"....can you believe that ? and they don't get arrested for taking VC and stockbuyers' monies ?
d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading,
comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers,
etc.:
1) Bernie Schaeffer, on Multex, 11/27, recently said (don't get me started) that, if Bush wins, the energy, tobacco, drug, and HMO stocks will do best, and, if Gore wins, the mortgage, banks, environmental stocks 'will benefiit most'....need I say more ? contrary-wise ? get it ? ....2) then, he now likes FITB, AIG, C, at tops mind you....oy....and, he dislikes NT down here, favoring CMVT up here instead....he really likes extended Insur. and Brokers from up here....he also dislikes CSCO down here, a point at which I actually like it, VSTO.... 3) MSDW now likes LU, unusual given its pattern and that they loved it all the way down.... 4) and the aptly named Motley Fool, recently said, "the stock market opportunities in network storage are huge" (where have they been the past few years ? but I digress), and loves, BRCD @ 220, VRTS @ 120, NTAP @ 80, EMC @ 85+....as you know, I was the first/only to have given these as Puts herein from recent highs for you....and, even if they turn oput to be correct S.T., what kind of small % gains might they have, vs. OUR kinds of stocks whehn we are correct ?
e) more general items proving why one should probably
ignore 95 % of everything else out there:
1) ?
So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does,
often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups,
chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going
contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from
the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and
save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other,
useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional
problems for you, before they begin....
Always remember to view
"1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with
their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and
see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and
put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T.,
ITM options, where exist, and/or on Margin, where no options exist....
"Q" = 'quick', i.e., after
less than a month or so holding, "VQ" = 'very quick', i.e., just a couple of
weeks time, and "VVQ" = 'very very quick', i.e., often after just a few days
since 'bought' herein....and, L.T., means 'long-term', i.e., at least a few
months' time holding period:
bal. calls BKS (17+ to 27++) for for L.T. 250% Gain....bal. puts BRCM (255-- to 100) for VQ 250% G....bal. puts AMCC (106+ to 54+) for Q 200% G....bal. puts IWOV (115 to 60+) for 200% G....bal. puts JNPR (235- to 111+) for Q 200% G....1/2 pos. calls MU (31 to 42-) for VQ 133% G....bal. puts SANM (115- to 88-) for VQ 100% G....all puts CHCS (39+ to 25) for VVVQ 150% G....1/2 pos. NVLS (28 to 35) for VVQ % G.....bal. puts CPN (51- to 44-) for 50% G....
and/but, longs, HLIT, IFMX, ENTU, NTOP, NOVL, FGH, TSP, MSTR, TERN, REV, AII. ?, OCN ?, APN, VIXL ?, GENE, 2nd pos. PAP ?, DPH ?, and, puts, FNM, EXC, THC, IPL ?, JNJ, EPG, UNH ?, MRK ?, GLH, for very quick, very small losses, normally of small overall consequence to a properly diversified L.T. portfolio....and, OHI, for L.T. B.E., and, ORB (8 to 5 to 6 1/2) for slightly larger QSL....
NOTE: while most of the $ 5. to $ 10. stocks are listed here
as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls
options, their % Gains/Losses would have been multiplied, higher, right ? We
prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are
phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. buying those
stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less arithmetic
risk, and yet, similar reward potential--- stocks themselves have no "premium",
right ? and, of course, if one just bought said longs for cash, and not on
margin, the % Gains/Losses here would be relatively smaller, though still
excellent, for such short holding periods, yes ? also, obviously, these
"hypothetical transactions" are always listed, from biggest % Gains, to smallest,
then all losses....
(either for Cash, especially in Pensions,
and/or on Margin where suitable, and/or Only L.T., in-the-money Options, where
suitable/available, always Diversifying, always with close Stops below/above
recent lows/highs):
1/2 pos. AKS @ , 1/2 pos. BBY @ 30++, BND @ 4.18, BTC @ 2+++, 1/2 pos. CCC @ 5, 1/2 pos. FCS @ 16++, LRCX @ 16-, 1/2 pos. MRBA @ 5.18, NWK ny ?, 1/2 pos. PBY @ 4+, 1/2 pos. PGA @ 2 1/2, 1/2 pos. RRRR ?, SEM @ 10-, 1/2 pos. SOL @ 4, 1/2 pos. WBPR @ 9- ?
"Repeats": (some of these are/were '1/2 size positions): AAPL @ 18+, AII. no, ALI. @ 2, AMAT @ 40+, AMC @ 8, ARJ @ 18-, BGO @ 0.405, BMG @ 1.37, CX @ 20, DDR @ 12, DPH @ 13++, EGLS @ 13 3/4, ENN @ 6-, F. @ 24-, FUN @ 18+, FRT @ 19, GY @ 7 5/8, HA @ 1 7/8, ICIX @ 15, IHK @ 1, KDE @ 12, MDS @ 14-, MOT @ 20++, NCI. @ 3 5/8, NVLS @ 28++, OCN no ?, ODP @ 6 5/8, OPI. @ 6-, PAP no, PDG @ 8-, PKS @ 14+, PRGN @ 15+, RAD @ 3-, SKS @ 9+, UAL no ?, VIXL no ?, WCOM @ 15...."buy (only) low", right ?
.
** Important: took, FBR, FWC, ATHM, LBRT, MSTR, PRD, SRV, BSX, VRGE, ITXC, EYE, SILCF, SCMR, AKAM, WCG, INSP, Off the pot. Long Buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt."....we do Not "Guess" at bottoms....or tops....
alphabetically by symbol:
(new ones): 1/2 pos. GIS @ 42-, 1/2 pos. ORI. @ 27+ ?
"Repeats": (some are/were '1/2 pos.') CHCS @ 40-, CIMA @ 69, CMX @ 12+, DA @ 30-, DME @ 24+, DUK @ 87++, DV @ 39+, EXBD @ 46, FRE ?, HBC @ 75+, HCA @ 42, IPL @ 23+, MRK ???, PHA @ 59++, SEI. @ 16+, TDW @ 47++, UNH no ?,
and/but, took, 'anything already way down', and, , and the 'just missed' ones just below here, Off the pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here)....remember, any new highs = off the Puts list....so VIEW their charts, to see what 'aborted Puts patterns' look like, for YOUR lifetime benefit....also, obviously, where they have fallen nicely, many of these were 'just missed' herein as well, right ?
*** and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7)
below, we "just Missed", KLAC, ARIA, SRR, NEM, OXY, NSM, INCY, HEB, VRA, BKC, SWC, CNXT, GPC, HRP, LEA, TSM, NSM, AMD, CEL, JH, as Longs/Buys near very recent lows, and, AGC, LLY, PGR, APH, as Puts/Shorts, near recent highs....Every single stock ever listed here over past NL's was specifically given you herein, in sec. (6) or (7), previously, and you very likely could still have caught them, if you took the time to view their charts....More proof of the power of "PSYCLE sm" patterns....again, just because I honestly admit to "missing" some, which DO work anyway, that I give you herein, does not mean YOU have to miss those same stocks ....if you do just a little work, YOU may certainly catch ones, which I may happen to just miss, herein....making you money, in both directions, most of the time, yes ?
(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, and/or
mentioning, because of recent price moves, still remaining long in most all of
them, unless otherwise noted):
**** note: (sos) means "Sell On Strength" (i.e., on
a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means
Sell it here (if still right at/near the listed price level).
acting a.o.k., or strong(er) :
PRGN 19 7/8 up 4 7/8, BMG 1.68 up 0.31, AMAT 48 5/8 up 8 5/8, NVLS 36 up 5 1/8, 29-, MU 42 1/2 up 8 3/4, CVD 9 3/4 up 1 1/2, ICIX 16.97 up 1.97, CC 14.93 up 1.69, DLM 7 1/2 up 1/2, WCOM 16 3/4 up 1 3/4, MDS 15 1/8 up 1, AMC 8.43 up 0.43, CMH 10 3/8, SKS 9 7/8, DLX 23 1/2, FRT 19 5/8, WBPR 9 3/8, higher, since last time here ....and, TKR 25+, BKS 28, even higher still....
and/but, then, seeing Many pullbacks,
and more bounces after pullbacks:
PDG 8.43, 9.31, HCM 5 5/8, VOD 34, 37, 34-, ARG, ALI. 2, AMAT 45+, 40+, 42+, OPI. 6.18, GLT, DPH, KOPN 12 1/4, FON, F., DLTK, PRGN 16 1/2, PKS, DLX 22 1/2, MU 34++, SVRN, SOL, PMTC, NVLS 29-, ATYT, HA, PLL, LGTO, CC 13 1/2, GIGA, WCOM 15 1/8, ICIX 15, MOT 20++, ENN....some of these are also in "ms/sos" list below, and, those must strengthen or else....
and/but, these
already assumed Longs, are acting weaker S.T., and/or must strengthen, and/or
must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else",
and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
(note, some of these are also in "pb" list above
....obviously, any stock near its lows, or close to breaking, "must strengthen"
or else, yes ?) AM, AII, STEI., KDE, DPH 13 1/2, IHK, VOD, CHINA 8 1/2, MRCH, UAL 35, FMT 4-, TSP, SOL 4, AAI, RAD, OCN, PMTC, MOT, FON, BNP, PLL, ORB 5 1/8, 6 1/2 (S), VIXL 4....
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these Puts, unless otherwise noted):
check their patterns out:
more nice drops for you: BRCM - 30 (S), BRCD -27, CHCS -16 (S), GUC -6, EXBD -6 1/4, CIMA -8, DA -3 3/4, AIG -2 1/2, HCA -2, EXBD -2, GR -2, DA -1, CMX -1 1/2, CBL, GIS, down further since last NL here....and, ACF, CPN, CHP, GR, PWER, CHCS, fell towards/to their 200 DMA....and, PLMD 25 dn 25, NEWP 60+, DTPI. 30, ARTG 30, DF 27, down even further still, and are probably done on the downside soon....
* But, then, these, are
acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, intraday, and/or Must Weaken anew,
nevertheless, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness
("sow"):
6) Now--- Here are Other, Fuller lists,
of still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises
towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or
"EVB" patterns break down):
Potential Longs, by Industry Groups, for "Rotation":
some
decent bases here, and many decent EVB's and double-or-triple- bottoms, (but,
again, Not when/if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already
"up", much, off lows, right ?):
and, these REIT's, most also with big potential Dividends ? (FRT, HCN, ENN, CWN, AMC, DDR, MLS, GRT, RAS, TCC, JDN, ARJ, TCO, FUN, CRO eh, HRP, etc.)
Railroad/Auto/Trans. (F, DPH, AN, etc.)
and, ahead, most Cyclicals, "natural resources/precious metals" (BMG, BGO, N, AKS, etc.)
Farm/Land/Fert., Aero./Def., Leisure/Travel/Toys (CCL, RCL, HAS), Housing-related, Industry Groups....
and, Online Brokers/Financials (XRX, SVRN, OCN ?, IFS)
and, Commun. (and 'long-distance stocks' ? MWL, CEL, PHI, DT, IIT, etc.), and, Chem. (EMN, CCC, ROH, DD, GY), also, Retail (KM, CNS, ODP),
Health-relateds (ALU, SOL, SRV, ALI)
Food-relateds, (IHK, BLM, DLM, DL, etc.)
and, of course, some of the 'busted Techs', as EVB's, just below....
We are Also "Watching" --- as potential EVB's, or "basing", or "double"
bottoms", near recent lows ONLY:
*** as S.T., "EVB's": in no particular
order, as a "watching" list: note, most have been on this list for a while,
allowing you ample opportunity to have SEEN their charts, and bought them when/if
suitable, yes ?
added, (in no particular order !): (be sure thay have not broken, before you buy, if at all) added, ELNK, RRRR, CUBE, BRKS, BTC, GEB ?, HEB, BKC, PMD ?, AWE ?, FCS, BBY, REP, FTU ?, UIS, WSM, CBR, MRBA, TKR, ARM, FRT, GPC, DOL, JH, HIB, OMX, ADLAC, AMKR, APCC, BMCS, STXN, PRIA, WBPR, to, BANR, INCY ?, CHRS, NWSB, SCMR, SIL, MXR, VRA, ITT, LOR, NSM, GT, PKS, ANAD, LDG, SEM, LRCX, VRGE no ?, ARIA, CELL, SCR/A, FTBK, UAL no, DD, ATI. ?, CHB, HRP, IN, PER, CRO, PBY, to, INAP, KOPN, EGLS, COHU, BMG, AIR, FBN, KLAC, LZB, DT, CMOS, GEB, to, CDO, FCS, SRR, AEN, OPI, DLX, CSDS, NCI, NWK, CMTN, IIT, AAPL, STSA, LOJN, DLTK, OBJX, PRGN, PHC, may well base/EVB/bottom ahead....and/but, not any of these above, when/if they make new lows or break budding bases/patterns....don't "force" trades....and be sure to do your 'fundamentals' homework on all, especially the lesser-known ones....
'total return potential/yield-plus' section: GTA, ENN, TCC, USU, CWN, BNP, NHR, MLS, JDN....close stops again....
(NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT
chase them down, wait for bounces):
* add, AMRI, CERN, CIMA, EXBD, INFA ?, NTRS, APC, APH, FNM, FRE, CMX, BA, XL, MO, PPL, CLX, PGR, FRX, GIS, MRK, ORI, STT, MTB, to, CAH, XOM, SEI, RKH, NBR, RDA ?, FVB, NEU, to, CPL, MNY, PPL, RJR, SPC, TDW, DA, CTIC, DME, DUK, HP, HCA, to,
(repeats) DFXI, ELF, IPL ?, ESRX, COF, MANH, FPC, GUC, EPG, HBC, DDIC, PHA, MKL, IMPH, IMGN, OSIP, CGP, MRX, CHKP, BLDP, PLXS, from recent past NL's....again, note smaller list....
**** the Best Puttable Industry Groups: in no particular order, and,
understanding we have already HAD some nice drops: Extended and at least
Semi-parabolic: Utilities, Insur., REIT's, Energy and Services (but most are already down, yes ?), Enterprise/software, Health/Medical/Drug/Biotech, Fuel Cell, Electronics, Computer/Internet/Software/Services, all 'not-down-yet Semiconductor-related, High-PE Techs, all near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above their patterns highs....this ends putside-downside follow-ups/ideas section....
VIEW THE CHARTS....SEE where the 200 DMA's are....LEARN THE
PATTERNS/STAGES