1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm": new:

we were correct s.t. again, as, as of Mon. 7th, and Mon. 21st, Indexes had/have rallied, NASD 2040 to 2257 bo, DJIA 10200 to 10950, SPY 117+ to 127+ cbo....but, again, as i said B4 this s.t. rally, I still do/did not expect too much, initially, dig ?....and/but all indexes are trying to bo again s.t. on the u/s, above their late-July bounce highs....so am/was watching for that, and was/is happening a bit by Mon. 21st/Tue. 22nd, up/bo's a bit....

and, one more time: 'if', as the often-wrong-95%-latecomers-and-doomers knew that most fundamentals rarely affect prices as only they expect (re-read my Booklets), then, again I ask, how could Crude have Fallen from $ 70 bbl. to 56, and Unl. Gas from 2.02 mcf to 1.46, since Sept. 1st ???, after/with 'horrendous hurricanes, disruptions, middle-east/terrorist, 'debts', etc., stuff ? so much for all those eco-fraud oil-co.-haters and 'conspiracy-ers', dgms ....you're welcome....yet more proof of how most external events have little or no D.A.F.P.P.V., right ?, re-read my Booklets....

once again, while we normally eschew 'whole mkt. index stuff', latest l.t. chart of the PE on the SPY, shows down even further, to, like, 18x earnings - certainly nowhere near 'overpriced', dig ?, recall its a.t. parabolic high mid-2002 of around 48 (!) and 25, dig ?....btw, again teaching U something of supreme value, PSYCLE-wise, IN mid-2002, when we had our last intermediate-term stocks-markets lLOW, do note that "PE's" were at their HIGH (!), exactly opposite to what 'the experts/95 %' have Incorrectly suggested over the dedcades, dig ?!, read that again - the stock price LOW, weas right at its HIGHEST PE level....get it ?, hope so....once again, PE's alone have historically been among the WORST D.A.F.P.P. factors, !, re-read my Booklets....

an unusual P.S.: since we are generally about 5 full years from the 'y2k big tech. stks. drops, with many issues having formed v.l.t. depressed bases', it may behoove y'all to printout '5-year charts' of many depr. techs. herein, I have given 2 U over the last several months, to be able to 'see' & learn the usual PSYCLE sm pattern....

and the NASDAQ just made a new minor 4-yr. recovery high....again, recall, I was among the 1st few to give out OTC issues as puttables right at their parabolic tops, on TV/in NL, and their intermediate-term bottoms thereafter, esp. the Fall 2002 mega-lows, and the int.-term putting opps. around 2100 until recently, herein, yes ?, you're welcome....but i reallly did think we'd get more pb' in extended/rallied tech. stks. B4 an upside bo, and was a little incorrect in NASDAQ recently only - but, I do not see many techs running much higher here, although we ARE entering historically good 'season' for depr. techs, tax-selling, etc., dig ?

So, as U have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just taking advantage of the best individual stocks and in rotating industry groups, chart-pattern-technically and sentiment-wise contrarily, mostly on the long side, but never eschewing the put-side, with preset stops and proper diversification - while ignoring or going opposite 95 % of all news, fundamentals, media messages, opinions, indexes/averages comments, from nearly everyone other than me, etc.
By just getting my output herein, alone, at least, U do much better, and save time, by not even having to "seek and process" the massive and ridiculous, often-misleading and/or incorrect, useless-as-D.A.F.P.P. info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for U, B4 they even begin, yes ?

2) "What's Been Said, and What I've Read":

a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) notes:
1) TNX yld. up to 4.682 %, extremely close to being either a d.t. in yields, as I expect(ed) herein, and ditto with TYX yld. up to 4.898 % for pot. d.t., being now at 4.879 %....so, as I suggested, 'a moment of truth is here for yields'....and, as U can C below/herein, we put/short them up here, s.t. anyway, so far.... 2) btw, along with predicted-herein rally in DXY, the EURO has fallen from 1.36 to 117, in recent months, hah....take that, ignorant, negative, damaging, US-bashers...."but, Jim, everyone should know and hate the US, and love all other countires"....yeah, right, as the pattern rarely changes, right ? .... 3) and, of course, DXY 92.74, bo further, now above its 4/05 high, hmmmm...but, herein, we put/short it, below..... 4) the SOX bo ? further up to 486+ or so, was watching for resistance/puttability, again around here....so also remoced KLAC, ALOG, as pot. puts, semis/chips, anyway, no sweat....but unless the SOX really breaks-out more, might Put it again anyway, w/close stop ?

....5) hey, good for us, as Dec. Crude fell to new pb low @ 55.40, fri. 18th th, ditto Unl. Gas dn to 1.46, hah (cover both shorts, btw)....when/if dec. crude below 55, wb a major s.t. bd, watching....take that, U incorrect 95 %-ers, as usual....am also noticing similar toppy-patterns among extended related Mtg., Housing, stocks prices, as Energies look, re-read my Booklets !, get it ? ....but that said, a v.s.t. bottom formed around 11/14 or so, in Energies+, so need rally to short-into-again, only when & if, from here.... 6) and, i said fri. 11/11, that the TLT (long t-bond) would likely setup as a long buy s.t., ahead, soon, around 87+, after its predicted-herein-only drop from 96 or so ?....as usual, i will be among the 1st few to even remotely suggest that, dig ?, re-read my Booklets ....and, of course, by wed. 11/16, up to 90.74, you're welcome....

7) yet another to learn from, psycle-wise, SUNW stories recently, headlines like, "everyone deserts Sun Micro ship", yadda, yadda....after using all its $ 5 B. cash to t/o STK to get pos. CF, stk. remains above lows in l.t base, dig ? , as u know, as usual, I kinda like SUNW long-buy, down here, l.t., 'nuff said........8) as the 95 % and 'experts' (dgms) recently go super-bullish on Foreign/Intl. equities (high/late as usual, re-read my Booklets), i am noting, 'the EAFE stk. index', of most all intl. stks. indexes, show ME, a pot. double-top ahead already ! (as usual, in the PSYCLE pattern, dig ?), hmmmm....even the NIkkei, while in a l.t. saucer base (from where I gave out herein s l.t. buy years ago around 6,500) now up to 11,000+, and is too late to 'begin' to buy it, dig ? and/but most other Intl. stks prices are already way way up (except as i give some out herein near their lows at times)....

9) again, after being correct Putting its s.t drop recently, a qsl in GOLD/GLD as it bo completely to new multi-year high, 494.4, tue. 22 nd, no biggie....but remember what O & G just did, pulling back recently, thereafter, get it ? and anyway, note, i only hear latecomers saying "gold, gold, gold ! $ 500. next" - when that is about only where it is now, dig ?, re-read my Booklets on what is likely to happen from here ahead, for Gold, as with Energies, recently ? ....just FYI< last time Gold was $ 500., was 1987, dgms, and low, to remind U, was around $ 25+, 12/99-1/00 ....9) watching EBAY & AMZN as pot. triple-tops, around xmas-season, hmmmm ?, n.y. ?, close stop above anyway, right ?, no biggie....

10) well, wed./thu., Nat. Gas had +7 %-in-one-day pop, hmmmm....after falling as expected herein, initially, to its uptrend line, dig ?, now, as with Crude Oil, they must both bd below recent lows, to re-est/their downtrends, but perhaps both will continue to form their 'triangle-on-its-side formation, till eventually breaking that pattern, probably early next year 2006 ?, we shall C....meanwhile, fri. 18th, N.G. fell to 11.05 - when/if below $ 11 mcf, wb a major bd, watching.... 11) I remind u again, as the EWT pronounces 2006 'the coming year of likely Grains price rises', I have agreed with them, as most soy, wheat, corn, etc., remain close to their v.l.t. depr. base lows, dig ?....as i have suggested, the rallied-parabolic commods are were/are likely to pb, while the not-rallied-yet depressed commods would rise, ahead, get it ?, as some $ shifts from one to the other....IGR, right ?, re-read my Booklets....

12) just read a predicted-by-me-only sob-story in The Street .com's NL, recanting how those "nanotech stocks' have fallen -20 % to -50 % since thousands morew unenlightened investors were as-usual duped/ripped-off into buying them with/in those over-hyped mass-mailed come-ons, & NL's, months ago, as I reported herein would likely occur, via my "PSYCLE sm", dig ?, as the oattern rarely changes, ay ?....btw, as they fall and est. depr. bases and those same hypers begin to flee their case, watch for some of them to, as usual, beocome long buys, down the road, right ?, R U learning how things transpire ?< hope so....

b) more, misleading, sensationalized, Late, and/or improper/incorrect comments from the Financial Media, Reporters, Politicians, Your Govt., etc.:
1) saw a fantastic chart from TRA/TDR, showing, each year since 1990, the net profits of Citigroup & BofA, vs. net profits of XOM & CHV, and guess what ?, while all the idiots are railing against supposed 'excess profits' @ energy companies (dgms), turns out, the finl. svcs./bank/loans I.G. has OUT-earned the Energy companies, EVEN AT $ 70. bbl. O & G prices, during every single period !, hah....hmmmm....yet one never hears about THEIR 'excess profits', = total BS, etc., as usual, from all pols....but again, they never learn how the PSYCLE works, what a shame for us all.... 2) we have yet another in a huge list of PSYCLE stocks, to watch, forward, after a big rise on big supposed fundenatals/news, as GILD stk. px. has/had, of course, already risen a bunch, BEFORE its Tamiflu drug approval and current unsubstantiated-fear (re-read my Booklets), about 'flu', ahead., dig ?, U know what will likely happen ahead, PSYCLE-stage wise, yes ?

2) wow, talk about the power of the Drug Companies, as MRK got a second trial for VIOXX, from the FDA, yikes, dgms.... 3) and, by 11/15, as i predicted herein, my local car-gas dn to 2.43 gal., from 3.05 high, pretty quickly, "but, Jim, everyone knew a month ago, that gas was guaranteed to rise to $ 5. gal.", yeah, right....next.... 3) and recent "the US dollar is back", b.s., bullish-only-now-after-rally-none-of-them-predicted-but-I-did-4-U-herein headlines recently, mean -U guessed it, from a PSYCLE p.o.v. - end of the DXY is likely rally imminent, yes ?, R U learning the patterns ?, hope so.... 4) and, following-up with my BULLISH on O & G supplies opinions herein, vs. the 95 %-ers permanent negativism), I just read int. item that supposedly, there are currently about 600,000 (wow) 'stripper oil wells' in the USA, currently, believe it of not, producing about 15 % of ALL the USA's OIl needs (surprise), and, with Crude over $ 55+, still, just drilling htem further, at costs, might increase their outflow from, currently about 5-10 bbls. day avg., to perhaps 30-40 bbls. day !, hmmmmm, when/if so, and I do expect supplies to increase as only I predicted a little while ago herein, again, this would REALLY help our Oil supply sit., dig ?, as capitalism causes the seeds of price-drop-after-parabolic-rises per my "PSYCLE sm", ahead, as usual, yes ? 'nuff said....

c) more incorrect/misleading/sensationalized, and/or improper comments, from Fundamentalists/Companies, newspapers/magazines, etc., vs. illogical/Contrary/Unlinkable, past/present/future Economic items, data, and/or stock price moves:
1) TRA/TDR says that Money Supply in Denmark, Britain, Australia, are growing at +10 to +15 %/yr., wish I could confirm, and that that has been going on for over a year that way - since the Doomer NL's always take just one instance and extrapolate forward, yadda, yadda, re-read my Booklets, ridiculous.... 2) and Bill PIMCO Gross finally agrees with me, that most IR's are about to stop rising via the Fed, and, a Recession/ econ. slowdown is here, and, IR's may actually start to fall anew, ahead, as a result, soon....neat....Plus, the WSJ reports that several huge B-firms, together, have gone from kinda bullish-on-bonds, to kinda-bearish-on-bonds, here, so we want to fade them, dig ? ....and, last, I am hearing more anectotal evidence of So. Calif. RE falling a bit for sure....

3) and this tottally incorrect/misleading sentence from perma-doomer Adidison Wiggin of TRA NL: "well, last year 2004, the US's annual deficits already hit $ 7. trillion." uh, excuse me ?, what 'annual deficits' is he referring to ?, proff ?, BS !....how continually irresponsible of him/them.... 4) ditto with TheStreet.com's NL heading, "stocks flat on Black Friday" the 25th....uh, again, I ask, excuse me ?, exactly how is/was 11/25/05 "Black Friday" ?, what makes these idiots think they are helping anyone with such claptrap ?, dgms, what nonsense/crap....as usual, from them, ay ?

d) more, likely late, incorrect, and/or misleading, comments, from Brokerage firms, NL writers, Analysts, economists, Money Managers, etc.:
1) Doomer NL TRA/TDR reminded us that 'corporate coffers still hold in excess of $ 2 trillion just in cash', neat....of couse, as with everything else, they try to find that as being a negative, dgms.... 2) oh, and compunding their already-dooming-incorrectly not-so-good-timing-specific-stocks-price-movements histpory, only nrecently, have I begun to read, from TRA/TDR NL's, "likely potential takeover targets O & G stocks" lists, with all quite extended issues given, a pretty obvious, too-many, encompassing list - garnered from their readers/subscribers no less (dgms, couldn't they do sdome research of their opwn ?, oy), lkate, as usual.... but evidently, actually, a soon-to-be-enacted tax-law may cause some overpriced takeovers soon anyway, in those I.G.'s, so watching for that....but so few, if any, depressed, inexpensive-here O & G stocks up here, anyway, dig ?, so I see few possibilities, yet, pending, further pb's among some, dig ?

e) more general, political, misreported, incorrect, agendized, slanted, items proving why one should probably ignore or go/do the opposite of, 95 % of everything else out there:
1) more signs of RE toppiness, as recent LAT articles mentioned, a) L.V. is evidently stopping condo-conversions, for a 6 mos. moratorium, forward, b) over 70 % of all homeowners who refi'd in Oct. '05 'cashed out', supposedly the highest such rate since Y2K (but i ask, since RE prices ROSE considerably thereafter in y2k, why would that item be 'negative' ?, but I digress), c) HELOC's now carry 7-8 % costs, vs. 3-4 % a few years ago, yes ?, d) FNM ests. that people will have pulled out another $ 200 B. of home equity in 2005, but I say, this is not all that much $, given the supposedly $ 9-12 trillion in U.S. RE's total value, right ?, e) 11/11/05 LAT article on "what U can buy in a SFH around LA for $ 500 K now", unfortunately had nothing but 'flw' comments from buyers, like, "it doesnt make any sense to wait to buy aany longer, prices will never fall again"< and, "were not counting on a RE price decline now", and, "few people believe prices will dip", and, "well, certain home prices are good values COMPARED TO OTHER HIGH-PRICED HOMES OUT THERE, SO THATS OK TO BUY NOW STILL" (gee, did they SEE what happened to tech stks after y2k ? dgms), and, "rising and high home prices are here to stay", and, "many pot. SFH buyers are shifting to Condos" (uh-oh, ay ?)....all this in just one article, dig ?

2) just a little interessting item:, a recent 9/12/05 Barron's poll, rated "the most-respected Finl.- svcs. companies", and, they were: in order, WFC, royal bk. of scotland, AXP, HSBC, US bancorp, wachovia, barclays, UBS, ABN amro, B of A.....btw, the most respected 'companies' in the world, period were: GE, JNJ, MSFT, TOY, PG, TGT, DELL, INTC, XOM, WAG, MMM, PEP, UPS, AMGN, HD, MDT, GS, WFC, YHOO, HMC.... 3) just read where evidently, America now has 1.2 mm RE agents, grossed about $ 60 B. in comm. in 2004....and that Americans took out about $ 600 B. from their home quity in 2004 ? ....4) economically, the PPI was up about +6.7 % 9/04-9/05, while CPI +4.7 % (energy, RE, commods, etc. up, right ?), and/but 'import prices' rose +9.9 % during that same period, hmmm....TDR/TRA NL's of course are dommers about everything.... 5) also economically, evidently the once-famous Arthur Laffer, just proclaimed, "it doesn't get better than this, how good the American economy is/has been recently"....uh, excuse me ?, exactly what has he been smoking ?, next.... 5) TRA/TDR also showed chart of 'foreign ownership of USA assets", rising, from 1955 to 2004, from 2.5 % then, to over 26 % now, and, again, turning this into a negative somehow, by 'linking' that to the rising 'trade deficits' US vs. foreign countries, yikes....again, Y would foreigners purposely link their economies with ours, if they had other better choices, which they kinda have not, for decades now ?, and Y would they invest so much of their future in US, then pull out so they lose it all ?, idiots, those perma-Doomers....

So, as you have seen, for years now, how well one does, often, just "doing" the best 'individual' stocks, and rotating Ind. Groups, chart-technically, and sentiment-wise, mostly long-side, while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to even try to "seek, and process" tons of other, useless fundamental info., anyway....and we also help remove potential emotional decision-making problems for you, before they begin....

3) Most recent Hypothetical "PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:

Always remember to view "1-year-at-least past" charts of everything you can view, herein, along with their 200 day moving averages (DMA's), to "see/learn" the "PSYCLE patterns", and see where/when stocks in section (3) were Hypothetically bought near lows, and put near highs....all % percentage 'Gains' are just logical ESTIMATES for L.T., ITM options, where they exist, and/or assumed bt. on Margin ("s.o.m."), where no options exist....