1) "PSYCLE SENSE sm":
Please appreciate, how much time/effort I
put in, to put ALL applicable staged stocks, long-side and put-side, which befit
learnable, and actionable, "PSYCLE sm" patterns, into each NL....Sometimes fewer, sometimes more....Whatever I find that best fits "PSYCLE sm" stages, which YOU can learn/take advantage of, for YOUR trading/educational benefit, I will put into each NL....again, the "Most Actionables, Now/Here", are in Section (3). Note, the "learning/feeling/sentiment" items in section (2).
Please learn not to ever overemotionalize/worry about/extrapolate, any "most recent past" performance forward, good or bad, "PSY-chologically", because you may miss the next bunch of Gainers, Longs or Puts, while you are "ruminating about the last batch", dig ? Just because the "last few" may not have worked, does NOT mean "the next few" will not....in historical FACT, the vast majority of "PSYCLE sm" ideas HAVE indeed worked, real well, in all market conditions, way better than any other approach, for many years now, as you have seen....it is one's inner "psyche and expectations" which might be sometimes too anxious, too impatient, too fearful, too S.T., or too demanding, at times. Also, do not expect to mirror my/our recent excellent long-side performance forever....Now, to the Good Stuff:
3) Most recent Hypothetical
"PSYCLE sm" transactions, to be mimicked, and referred back to:
4) Already given out in previous NL's,
assumed Hypothetical "Long-side" positions:(issues moving since last time, worthy of following-up, mentioning,
and still remaining long in them, unless otherwise noted):
6) Now--- Here are Other, still-Depressed, Long Buys, near their recent Lows Only, for potential Rises towards resistance, always Diversified (w/close stops, when/if their basing or "EVB" patterns break down): 7) other, still extended/potentially
Toppy, "Puttables", near recent Highs Only, for potential Price Drops, using, Only, L.T., in-the-money Puts Only, Always Diversified, w/stops if patterns abort to the upside, for potential drops towards their 200 DMA's, or lower (NOTE: again, if they are already down appreciably from their highs, do NOT chase them down, right ?): 8) "PSYCLE sm" Lesson for today:
a) Important Industry Group (Rotation) Notes: The newest story, are some REIT's, as Long buys....some actually look relatively decent, but they all have low betas/volatility, so buy Options, or on Margin, where suitable/avaliable, and not just in "cash".... 2) and, I see more potential evidence, that, as was first/only to foresee the possibiltity of, similarly to the March/April top we exploited, the same three Industry Groups: Banks, Drugs, and Internets, may indeed be the "hook top" groups here.... 3) and, as I suggested herein, many Banks have indeed, done nothing more, than rise back up to their previous breakdown levels, and/or their 200 DMA's resistance ....4) and, now, some Insurance, Rails, and Consumer stocks also have similar potential resistance here, and I am also seeing many potential double-tops, still, among some Blue Chips big-names....see section (3) and (7) below....last, 5) as to weakness in Oil Services, am assuming you own just 'one' of those/them, in your diversified portfolio, so "ms/sos".
b) more incorrect/improper/misleading/late Media/company/announcements/ articles, vs. illogical/"unlinked" stock price moves: 1) L.A. Times, 11/22, "Most Mutual Funds Lag Blue Chip Gains": a VG article, again showing that only 339 of 3,166 MF's via Lipper's tracking, beating the S & P, in 1998 so far.... he specifically says, "managers say individual investor behavior is partly to blame for M.F. underperformance", because people tend to sell near lows, after falls, causing many Fund Mgrs. to have to sell stocks to raise $ to pay sellers, at the wrong times, dig ? Which prevents Mgrs. from buying near lows (and the reverse occurs, near tops, after rises)....In other words, many MF's receive $ often when fewer bargains exist to buy, and have less $ with which to buy, near lows, etc. Hey, another reason why "PSYCLE sm" traders DON'T do MF's....This article said that many sold their MF's in Aug. and Sept.-- after drops--- and most never bought them back until just recently--- after big rises already, see ? Plus, most MF holders just stayed it throguh it all, and have made very little since July, or in 1998, so far....their last line, was, " to some extent, the dummy down the block can tell the MF mgr. what to do" by selling near lows and only buying after big rises, because, "people were selling when they should have been buying, etc." More proof of how the "PSYCLE sm" works, PSY-chologically, and how investors tend to act AFTER trends, and in hindsight, rather than before future trends, in anticipation....but, you already knew that....
2) L.A.Times, 11/24, article, "First, ask why you'd want to buy....Can the market go higher ?", gave both sides of the bullish/bearish debate--- but many of THEIR bullish factors they listed, can also be viewed as Bearish, when viewed from a Sentiment/PSYCLE sm" point of view....They put several economic things, like, the coming "Euro" currency, lower commodity prices, strong consumer spending, international bailout money given to foreign countries, historically positive seasonality ahead, and the recent I.R. cuts, into their Bullish column....Yet, those are ALREADY discounted items, at today's stock prices, yes ? While all their Bearish items given, still remain in force, like, Internets and Frothiness, too much bullishness/sentiment, high ratios of PE, and price-to-B.V., likely lower corp. eps growth and spending ahead, no more I.R. cuts coming, lower consumer savings rates, and still-remaining foreign country problems....This explains why I do not employ "Media/Fundamental" items that way, in my predictions (re-read my "Media" and "Scenarios" booklets). One can go crazy trying to find, allow into one's brain, analyze, and use, such "items" as "D.U.F.P.P. factors." So, the lesson: learn the 7-staged technival/chart pattern, ignore, or go opposite of, 95 % of all "announced externals", and concentrate on the CHART and sentiment and I.G. patterns I have taught you, instead.
3) interesting, last week, "JNJ" stock Fell, even as they announced approval for another neat drug, as did "WLA", even with a new Alzheimer drug....While I did not make you much money in their Puts (though they, and some other Health/Drug stocks given herein worked, and a few other Drug stocks had Q, S losses or Gains in Puts as well), as I have been saying recently, the extended Drug/Health stocks ARE overdone, and must correct again soon....Some are still show rolling 'PSYCLE sm' tops, and others are potential "fakeout breakouts" above previously-formed rolling tops, as you know....But, the fact that these 2 leaders did NOT follow- through, ON the most recent good news, tells us something, yes ? ....4) L.A. Times , 11/24, front-page headline, trumpeting "new, record DOW high", used words, like, "leaped", surged", and "crashing above"....none of which were accurate, and also, as you have learned in my "PSYCLE sm' are the words often used, near S.T. tops, yes ?
c) more overrated analyst NL writers, prognosticators comments: more from "Jim Grant's" NL: still pretty bearish on stocks, and bonds, here, but has also been quite bearish most all the way up, as you know....His 11/20 issue, showed a L.T. chart of the U.S. "current account deficit as a % of GDP", as continually falling, worsening, for straight 20 years now, saying it is a "negative" for stocks.... Yet/but, since 1978, stocks have Risen, a ton, yes ? How can that supposed "factor' be bearish, if, while it fell a lot, stocks Rose ? oy....So, again, why do people keep "linking" those items, if they don't work for such a long period ? Now he is also newly bearish on the U.S. Dollar, saying the new "Euro" surrency will hurt the dollar's standing wordlwide....Just letting you know what he thinks, since he has not been very correct for quite a while....He also admits being wrong trying to short Brokerage stocks....But the "PSYCLE sm" comment that hit me most, was, "because it is hard to buy low in a bull market, it follows that we should not be close-minded when it comes to markets that do not exhibit upside momentum...." HUH ? So, here's yet another guy, who has not been VG, for years, doesn't know how to get close to buying low, near bottoms, and then says it's "hard" to do, what WE have been able to do, for years now, pretty easily, most times....WE find it EASY to "buy low in a bull market", with close stops....maybe he should buy, and refer his subscribers to, my NL....
See, one benefit of employing my "PSYCLE sm", is that, there are ALWAYS stage 1 and 2 stocks--- and stage 4 and 5 stocks--- every week, regardless of where the "Indexes" are, right ? Guys like this are way too famous, interviewed, lauded, and I have always wondered why....probably their "contacts", their "old boys club", yes ? What good is "perceived intelligence", if one's predictions are not correct often, consistently, over long periods of time ? Hey, these guys put their opinions in writing, just like I do....I am just trying to help YOU learn possible "timing signals" from their comments, when helpful, especially in a "contrary" manner....see also section (8) lesson, today, below....
e) this may not seem important, but, L.A. Times, 11/24, article, "Calif. state Bar exam passing rate hits 10-year Low": "of 7,580 taking exam, only 3,980 passed recently....while the Feb. 1998 passing rate was just 40 %"....these may be just two flukes, but you know my opinion on the unfortunate dumbing of America.... Briefly, while there are many factors at work in worsening test-taking results nationwide, like the SAT's, and Brokerage and Insurance license pass rates falling, etc., these are still Not good signs for the future....although one might arguse, since probably 80 % of all lawyers and brokers and insurance people are not exceptional, maybe this is a good sign after all ?
f) Very weird, and upsetting: all day, Fri. 27th, the CNBC gang was calling it "Black Friday"....why ? because, in THEIR words, it was the busiest shopping day of the year....So ? why not "busy Friday" ? or "green" Friday ? Why "black" ? See what they do to "create emotional responses", instead of accurately reporting important items ?
g) and, a nice Confirmation of another real good "PSYCLE-was-the-first-only" top call, in more Calif. Real Estate, L.A. Times, Sun. 11/29, front page of the R.E. section, titled, "Sizzle Turns to Fizzle", chronicled more "bought at the top" home buyers, and/or speculators, who are puzzled, and/or why their asking prices for the other house they want to sell, are no longer rising, and in more cases, Falling, just as I predicted here....Boo Hoo....Stay tuned....When too many latecomers stretch, after a big rise, to "move up", well, you know the rest....The article also referred to the (or should I say, "my") "July R.E. top" for the first time....Stage 5 ahead ? we shall see....
See how much better one does, just "doing" the best individual stocks (long, and/or puts), while ignoring, or going contrary to, 95 % of all Media messages, and "indexes/averages" comments, from the peanut gallery ? By just getting my output, alone, you do much better, and save time, by not having to "seek and process" tons of other, useless info., anyway, and we also help remove potential emotional problems before they begin.
NOTE: while all the $ under 10. stocks are listed here as "stocks on margin" ("stk.on.mgn."), if one Had bought L.T., in-the-money calls options, their % Gains would have been multiplied, even higher, right ? We just prefer not to buy Calls on most stocks under $ 10., unless their patterns are phenomenal, as their options premiums tend to be too high, vs. just buying their stocks on Margin, with close stops, where suitable, instead, with less risk, and similar reward potential--- another "PSYCLE sm" benefit for you....stocks themselves have no premium, right ? and, of course, if one just bought longs for cash, and not on margin, the % Gains would be smaller, though still excellent for so short a time period, yes ?
As taught in my "EVB/BDG" booklet: Note how some recent Longs have been "sold" in 1/2 and 1/2 positions, in 2 parcels, as previously suggested....this allows us to Control/Lower our risk further, and remove our Emotions, while still 'taking' Quick, Large % Gains....Also, when some stocks rise so much, so fast, it often does Not pay to "stick around to see what happens", in S.T. potential greed, because many of these stocks WILL pull back/correct....While there may be other buyables today, which look, today, like those recently Sold, looked, a few weeks ago, which may be better buys/holds than those "sold" up here, dig ?
**** New IMPORTANT note: LEARN THIS: with some of our recent S.T. depressed double-bottom (db) "W" stocks/formations, we are most likely going to sell 1/2 position on the "initial rise, to the top of the "W" formation", then, holding some back, in case those kinds of stocks do breakout above the "middle" of the "W" pattern, dig ? This way, we remove emotions, attachements, and we don't get over-excited with large % S.T. moves....We also lower our risk tremendously, from where 1/2 pos. is sold....Then, when/if those type of stocks fail to breakout, especially after a pullback, then, we consider selling the rest of our position, as near the top of the "W" formation as we can get....simple, effective. Again, nothing is "perfect"...."just get close(r)", and do everything else right.
* YOU MUST view/see/FIND where the 200 Day Moving Averages (DMA) are, on every single depressed EVB stock, ahead, here !!!! YOU MUST DO THIS....how else are you going to learn ? for instenace, as I said, In the larger perspective/scheme of things, some of our "depressed longs" might continue to Just have the "rally back up to where they broke down from", vs. their recently formed EVB's.
**** Newly BOUGHT Long-side, for potential Rises: (note, many more/new names here, yet almost no depressed Techs):
(new ones) JDAS @ 7++, BUNZ @ 9+, UPX @ 2.06, AZC @ 0.57, HBI. @ 6--, AEC @ 12+, ALF @ 12+, CPP @ 15+, ISV @ 1 7/16, KRY @ 1/2, (repeats) (note, some newer repeats here also) WJ @ 18+, ESV @ 9 11/16, NBTY @ 5 7/8, RRC @ 4 3/8, GLM @ 9 3/16, CHK @ 1.34, PPP @ 11 3/4, AIN @ 17++, WIT @ 19-, TGX @ 13+, MGN @ 2+, WGR @ 8-, PIN @ 5+, LXR @ 15/16, CNU @ 2 1/8, BIR @ 4 13/16, RDC @ 9 1/2, EEX @ 3 3/8, BST @ 17, ULB @ 1 3/4, FLC @ 10-, FP @ 2 9/16, IPIC @ 3.06, HIV @ 2 5/16, UC @ 4-, CTI. @ 7 3/8, RDC @ 10 11/16, WEL @ 2 1/2, PCTL @ 6+, CCLR @ 2 11/16, TBP @ 6 7/8, MB @ 3 5/16, VDC @ 3 3/8, DHC @ 3 11/16, SEV @ 8 3/16, TXB @ 3 3/8, PAGE @ 5++, MSN @ 0.41, MSX @ 16 1/8, VGZ @ 3/16, TOX @ 5/16, SSC @ 11/16, IIR @ 3 11/16, GW @ 1 1/16, WLM @ 11+, AXC @ 15/16, FLS @ 17+, BLM @ 2.06, FEN @ 3 5/8, CAU @ 0.31, TPS @ 11/16, MS @ 1 1/8, RYO @ 5/8....most are still EVB's...."buy low", right ? Note, we are revisiting some "previously given/traded" issues....also, several are "oil services"....and, more importantly, that, now, AFTER recent rises, most "new buys" are real cheapies, and/or "laggards" with less "sexiness", dig ? What does THAT tell you ? also see the "just missed" issues, below....And the "special list" below, in section (4), the last 3 NL's before this one, of some initially seemingly-broken patterns/stocks, which revalidated, and Rose a lot anyway, showing the power of "buying low", "The Psycle Way".
New Note: whether you choose to get/pay, the exact prices suggested here,
NOTE: as I teach in the "green Guide" Booklet, you should already understand, that, very often, there is NOT "just one day" when my ideas become "long buys" or "long puts"....some stocks may hit around originally suggested prices, 2, 3, 4 times, etc., sometimes over a period of weeks, as they may form EVB's, double-bottoms and/or bases at times, right ? When/if they rise/ fall in between those times, I will follow-up those moves, in section (4) and (5) anyway....this is a Positive, a Benefit, for you....remember, I have subscribers who ARE already in stocks which have already moved before YOU noticed them herein, dig ? And there ARE many subscribers who ARE viewing MANY of the charts of the stocks herein, first....and there ARE many subscribers who DO want "longer, more thorough, teaching" NL's/items from me....
*** remember, all my given stocks REMAIN buyable/puttable, every time they hit originally suggested prices, unless/until they break their patterns....even if weeks pass by !!! This is covered in "the Guide" and herein, endless times.... "just get close", and do everything else properly: the stops, VIEWING the charts BEFORE acting, NOT forcing trades, and, of course, LEARNING the stages/patterns of price, ind. group, and sentiment/media patterns.
** Important: took, none, --- Off pot. Long buys list, before they might have been Hypothetically "bt." (as most all made quick, new lows....also recall the last few lists of stocks removed before "bt." here). Note, I try to give "something for every type of investing/trading desire/account/objective", including some real cheapies, some $ 5-10. stocks,some over $ 20. stocks, and some "names" blue chips--- either, for straight Cash, and/or on Margin, and/or L.T., in-the-money Options, etc., so that all my valued subscribers have Choices, and for proper Diversification --- all still having similar, exploitable patterns, in each NL.
**** Newly BOUGHT, long "PUTS", for potential Drops: (new ones) CDWC @ 88+, CMGI. @ 90+, SNRZ @ 44+, BSYS @ 49+, FTEN @ 35-, PIXR @ 53-, EFBI. @ 46+, XRX @ 111+, YHOO @ 214-, EBAY @ 217-, FLEX @ 68+, ITWO @ 28-, CPRT @ 24+, MSBC @ 44+, CBC @ 69+, PNY @ 35+, CMA @ 68, CPQ @ 34+, FAM @ 44+, TYC @ 68-, SCUR @ 20+, AVP @ 42, MYL @ 35, VIA @ 68+, HB @ 59+, CF @ 69, LU @ 90,
(repeats) USTC @ 69+, USCS @ 34-, ZION @ 53-, JCOR @ 62-, METZ @ 43, MUEI. @ 24-, XCIT @ 56-, GDT @ 88-, AOL @ 95+, BFO @ 58+, AGN @ 64-, ITW @ 67-, WH @ 22 1/2, ACCOB @ 51-, CMGI. @ 91+, FISV @ 48+, ELN @ 71, OMC @ 57-, ABS @ 57+, GPU @ 45+, ROH @ 37+, SUP @ 28-, GNE @ 74-, CMCSK @ 51-, ASGN @ 37+, PRGX @ 32++, VOD @ 150-, PPL @ 28-, GAS @ 44+, CCIL @ 65-, UIS @ 29+, HDI. @ 41++, AFL @ 39+, CCE @ 40-, CMA @ 68+, GD @ 61-, CG @ 59+, PE @ 41++....Note how we are revisiting/repeating Put Buys on some previously given puttable stocks, as they rise back up to originally suggested Toppy levels, dig ? and/but, remember, I/we have NO "market scenario", ever, as you know....and, note, too many minor breakouts all of a sudden, so am taking more real small, quick Puts losses above, and NOT fighting the tape....
and/but, Took, none, Off pot. Puts list, before "put", as they aborted their patterns immediately (also see recent past issues taken off, here). IMPORTANT: sometimes, in the few hours after I send this NL to the web site, a stock might break its S.T. umbrella top, or its depressed EVB/base pattern....So I am assuming, you actually View their recent charts, BEFORE you consider buying any Longs or Puts, and you will see/know that the pattern is still O.K., and therefore buy/not buy them....this takes just seconds each to check/do, and will keep you from buying Puts/Calls on issues which abort budding patterns quickly after publication of my NL's.
....and/but, among stocks recently given you herein, in sections (6) and (7) below, we "just Missed", SYBS, STRX, CATP, GNSA, SDTI., SER, CPU, SPF, TRP, HPH, IT, as Longs near very recent lows, and, AMZN, LCOS, GCTY, FITB, CVD, AWS, RBD, NMK, ENE, CXR, DRD, PGR, SLM, AIG, HIG, DRI., GE, as Puts, near recent highs....as one of the few honest guys in this business, I will always tell you here, also when we "miss" actually catching suggested ideas, so you can "view/see" and LEARN their charts/patterns, for your educational benefit. By viewing the charts of the stocks here which we "just missed", also tells us, whether the market itself is providing more bottoms/tops, at that time, right ? Another reason why it is important to consider ALL my output, each NL....Again, the idea is to learn the "Patterns" of previously "given/done" ideas, for YOUR future benefit.
**** note: ("sos") means "Sell On Strength" (on a bounce up towards resistance, and/or where it broke down from)....("S") means Sell it here (if right at/near listed price level)
Your Education: and, try to view these 1-year-past charts: note, add, EGGS 32 wow (S), AHG 7 3/4 (S), CREAF 18+, UST 34+, APM 8 3/4, JBL 60-, NSCP 44, PRIA 26, CUBE 28-, DCLK 58, KLB 15+ wow (S), FEET 23-, LTR 105, IDPH 34+, ALA 26+, EMZ 13+, BWC 18, NN 31., USI., BAP, CD, to, BNYN, TEK, SAVLY, PRIA, ATMI., NOVL, HTCH, ALTR, ADPT, NMGC, COMS, KMAG, CRUS, LTR, MER 80., ICN, MII., TSM, FDC, HNP, BT, EQ, BEN, COT, NN, R., HA, as going higher still....I gave you all of these herein, specifically, near their lows....
please appreciate, that I have subscribers who want "real quick and out" trades, and others, who want the "multi-month holds for bigger potential gains" trades....by VIEWING the "higher still" list above, you will hopefully learn better PERSPECTIVE in the overall chart patterns, and what can really be accomplished at times, if one lets them....another, of mnay reaons why we are so against "day-trading": why anyone would limit one's potential, and increase one's stress, on purpose, is beyond illogic.
*** Note, how some "laggards" given you herein, are now popping, as the "early risers" ran into S.T. resistance....These types of "two-phased/staged rises, this "catch up" Industry Group Rotation, is taught in my "I.G.R.", and, "Downside" booklets, as it becomes "too late to expect huge rises from here" in many issues, as we become more careful again. (I am sure you have noticed, that these have always been listed, by "largest % moves, to smallest significant % moves")
(new comments)
*** the latest previously given-near-their-lows-here stocks, which most recently rose to, or around, their 200 DMA's, for your learning, view their charts to see patterns: add, AHG (note, hit right at its 200 DMA, Tues.), to, DNB, MII., UQM, COT, and the many others listed here in previous NL's, as hitting their 200 DMA's after nice, predicted Gains, as I showed chartw of, on my most recent TV appearance....
**** WHAT WE WANT TO DO NOW: long-side: 1) find those still- depressed "PSYCLE sm" stocks which have not yet had their nice bounces, yet which still have decent EVB, or "double-bottom", or basing patterns, and/or, 2) among our stocks which HAVE already had big S.T. bounces, look to buy those/them again, when/if they pull back to/towards their recently depressed levels....
and/but, then, seeing many pullbacks, like, FLS 18 up 3/4, PAGE, PCTL, FLC, CEI., PETC, TRMB, PSFT, APFC, PCMS, HEC, ADM, REXI., JBAK, NBTY, Oil Services, INPR, IPIC, TWA, HOC, HXL, CMO, MAVK, CFK, LTV, SUL, TLZ, ELY, PDE, ATX/A, VOX, "Steels", LPX, BSRTS, PCMS, WLM, AXC, IHSC, HIV, BHI., BIR, GGC, NGX, SSC, MCN, VSNR, DAY, CCH, WTS, PKD, SHG, MSX, WLV, RYO, ZAP, UPX, GW, WS, DX, NS, Z, Oil Services, pb (pulling back)....some of these are also in "ms" list below) again, please do not be afraid of buying the "Real Depressed Stocks", even in pension accounts, always diversifying, with close stops....Again, you Must buy at least a FEW, to increase your chances of being in the bigger movers....Lesson: there is NO such thing as "but, Jim, which 1 or 2 are your favorites ?" It is impossible, and illogical, to expect anyone to be able to choose just 1 or 2, out of 2,500 issues ....maybe 5 to 10, long-siders, and also 5 to 10, put-siders, sometimes, but never just 1 or 2....One must also eliminate one's "PSY-chological need for excitement", and/or of "instant/S.T. gratification"
and/or must strengthen "again/anew", and/or must "break above recent high or else", and/or are sales on strength ("sos") to/towards/near resistance:
5) Already given out in
previous NL's, assumed Hypothetically long "Puts" positions:
(issues moving since last time, worthy of
following-up, still remaining long in these long Puts, unless otherwise noted):
* Note, how I, again, am giving you some Puttable stocks which are Falling, as most of "the market", and especially high-priced, name, quality-type stocks, rise, again....that I am among the very, very few, giving out ANY profitable puts, since early Sept. (and tons more, from March, and July, through Oct.) should be more than enough, yes ?
Note: "(sow)" means, "Sell long puts On next Weakness, towards support".... "(S)" means sell/sold their long Puts right near here, or as in section (3) above ....I follow-up every idea mentioned, for your benefit....remember, these are NOT "overnite" trades, they take a little time to fulfill, so please have some patience, and no emotion, nor antsiness....let them do their thing.... **** IMPORTANT, you MUST view the 200 DMA's of our Puttables, past and present, for their potential support targets/areas/prices....
* but, then, these, are acting too Strong, and/or are Bouncing, and/or must
weaken anew, and/or are sales on pullbacks/weakness (sow): MSPG -15, +11, ELNK -14, +6, EBAY -27, +21, YHOO -15, +7, AOL +5, VOD -2 1/2, ASDV -1, +1, CBC -1, COLTY, CMCSK, PRGN, TSFW, GDT, USF, USCS, GAC, ASGN, ACXM, CMCSK, PPDI., CCIL, RCGI., HDI., BSYS, ACCOB, PRGX, BFO, MLM, GPU, UCM, EGR, GVA, PPL, UIS, VOD, BUD, DV, GD, and all Internets must weaken/more. Note the V.S.T. volatility among Puttables in recent days....
Remember, we either buy our
Puts right up near each stock's high, or not at all....but you can still view
their charts, to "see" previously formed/worked/aborted "PSYCLE sm" patterns, to
hopefully Learn from.
note how much smaller the Long-side lists have become, "after the mini-crash bounces":
"by Industry Groups":almost no great Bases here, just many EVB's (but, again, Not if any of these make new lows here, and, NOT if they are already "up", right ?):
Semis/Comp./Techs: please see "Techs", listed, in the "watching" section, below.
Prec.Metals (add, KRY, SIL, to, GRERF, CCH, AZC, VGZ, RYO, SSC, DAY, BGO, CAU, all real cheapies, risky, eh)
"Basic Inds." (Chem., Farm, Steel) (IAD, WIT, BIR, WS, LTV, BS)
Energy/and Oil Svc. (add, PGO, OXY, NOI., NE, to, EEX, GLM, MLR, WGR, MAVK, ESV, SAB, PPP, RRC, FEN, SEV, MHR, CHK, KSF, TRP, RDC, WEL, WLM, HEC, BHI., IIR, NR, and, maybe, VRC, MHR, NOI., all Only near recent lows, after more pullbacks)
Biotech/Health/Medical (add, PHYC, ISV, to, GNSA, VTS, TGX, SHG, LXR, MT, TOX, IPIC, ULB, SHG, MGL, HIV, CCLR, TXB, BDR, TOX, MS)
Consumer/Retail/Apparel/Shoes (PRD, BBA, LDRY, BUR, KFI., MSN, OO, UNO, SGE, FTL, BLM, VCD, GCO, Z.)
Capital Goods (CWC, ROP, MSX, FLS, WJ, CTB, LDW)
Hotel/Gaming/REIT (MIR, SER, JAMS, UDR)
Employment (JOB, MPS, BYL, RMDY)
And, again, as I pointed out earlier here, some depressed R.E./REIT/Financials/ Mtg.-type stocks, many with huge Insider Buying a while ago, some with very high "potential" dividends, may shape up ahead....watching, in no particular order, add, ALF, AEC, CPP, GRT, PMC, BRI., to, WGR, LTC, KPA, CPP, GLB, AML, CRO, ENN, FCH, GRT, RFS, JPR, MAA, BNP, BOY, RWT, UDR, SIR, AMMB, CMO, AAC, IMH, CBG, TMA, FBG, SPF, TIG, DX, FP, UC, if you need some maybe's, on pullbacks only)
NOTE: as I said above, ON BIGGER PULLBACKS ONLY, stocks like our Oil Service, Golds, and Techs, may very well set up as depressed buys again, down the road.... as always, I will let you know at that time....have patience.
And, as I have been saying here, even though I have given you a ton of quick 50-100% gains, do NOT expect as large rises off bottoms, as when I gave out similar "EVB" Techs, in the late '97/early '98 period (nor, from the late '95 to early '96 period....I was first/only to do so near their lows at those times), because there are NOT many "true bases" here--- just some with good EVB's....we accept occasional Q, small losses in some longs, w/close stops, along the way ....Also note that many popping stocks are due to pull back, soon, after their recent/initial "dead-cat bounces". This is normal, and welcome.
and/but, Important: also, took these Off the pot. long Buy list, Before they
might have been Hypothetically "bt.": none, --- were taken Off....These/they just need more work, technically, first, and/or are still making new lows....we do NOT "Guess" at bottoms....we want only the EVB's, which set up properly....we MUST also see the cathartic/high volume, in "PSYCLE sm" stage 7", first.
We are also Watching --- as potential EVB's/bottoms, near recent lows ONLY (especially since mnay of these are too high to buy now, several which I removed from this list): add, CEXP, ICIX, OMPT, SYNT, STRX, PCR, CFS, BCP, WTT, ISV, WEB, CPU, SOL, ALN, SEW, TBI., ICA, HPH, AG, IO., to, those listed just above here, and, CLCDF, AFCI., ONX, CPU, INPR, RAIL, MLT, PSFT, LPX, BEZ, TWA, JDAS, DHC, VDC, UPX, TBP, THP, ZAP, CXI., ILX, TFT, TRMB, PHYC, WTT, PCMS, ELCO, MRVC, AXC, BMC, CYI., PIN, IV, still, most all as "EVB's" (again, note, most are "Techs", with some "Finls."), and, the Value Line issues: NSANY, DEMP, CEPH, GNSA, OFIS, BUNZ, SEW, TSA, FNL, MGN, COE) some here, some Not just yet, as those need more work, technically....and/but most, only on pullbacks towards lows.... and/but, not any of these, when/if they make new lows....and, again, some EVB's may still form double-bottoms ahead, so don't "force" trades....
NOTE: more than a few newly addeds here, are previously successfully traded stocks which are now pulling back....fitting the overall message of the recent market, above....
**** The potential Longs above are chosen, First, by their EVB or "base"
technical chart patterns, then, I do do a "little Fundamentals research" on each,
to make sure they are viable companies, with no "hidden time bombs"....Last, on some of these, you are going to have to stretch your time-frame out a bit, this time around, as some of these may, like after the last few mini-crashes, take weeks instead of days, months instead of weeks, to form any bases/EVB's, and/or rise, dig ?
Potential Puts list, near their highs ONLY: (note Longer list again): add, QWST, DELL, FLEX, INSS, DCTM, OKEN, ONSL, BYND, VNWK, XOMD, MEDQ, MSBC, SCUR, QLGC, AMZN, FAM, APW, NCR, ECL, DHR, HIG, JCI., SLM, GE, DRD, CGX, BMY, BGG, STI., AIG, PG, UN, H., to, the "Recent Puts Buys from Section (3)" above, plus: LAMR, ATHM, ASGN, BSYS, BRCM, APCC, TSFW, COMR, CDWC, CVC, AMCC, CEFT, ASDV, SGY, ANF, RAD, CFR, TLD, UHS, PPDI., NEON, ZION, AVP, CCE, CAH, LIN, MLM, FDO, NMK, CBL, CBC, TYC, COST, PMCS, PRGS, PRGX, INKT, ACXM, HSY, GVA, NMK, PGR, AAPL, ANF, DRI., HB, EL, still, most all within:
the Best Puttable Industry Groups: still, adding Extended Banks, Drugs, to the extended Health/Medical, Utilities, Insurance, Finance, Golds, Supermarkets, Insurance, Computers, Retails, Internets, Aero./Def., Food/Bev., High-PE techs, all types of Telecommun., in no particular order, as the most probable Puttables, near their recent Highs ONLY, w/close stops above patterns....also, note how we are revisiting some of our past Puttable stocks....
*** again, note, how, many Techs, Comp./Semis, Health-relateds, Steels, Metals, Financials, Airlines, Insur., Banks, Alum., etc., stocks, have done nothing more, recently, than just rise back up, towards their still-falling 200 DMA's/resistance, as taught in my "Downside" booklet....I showed this ON my T.V. appearance, 11/25....what does THAT tell you ? Remember, double-tops CAN have a right-top, higher, than their left-top, ditto "head & shoulders" tops....see, BMY, TYC, AIG, PG, AEG, PGR, HDI., GE, ADBE, UIS, others, etc., as pot. D-T's....We may have a Q, S loss the first time, or in the middle, but we also are more likely to catch the eventual top, as taught in my "Downside" booklet, provided one stays with the strategy.
Today, two slightly advanced, brief Lessons: first, within the trading community, when we go "opposite" a disseminated or believed item or factor, we call this "Fading"...."Fading" means, going Opposite what certain people are predicting, i.e., when the Media, or analysts, or investors, are too bullish, or bearish, on something, we "fade" them, dig ? Using the word "Fade" as a verb....to "Fade" a stock, or an indicator, that has been rising/topping, we buy puts, sell, or short....Fading has normally been used to try to exploit the Downside, more than the upside...I don't know why, it just is. Maybe because so few people ever actively exploit the Downside, as you know. We also 'fade' other NL writers whose track records are historically bad, and we 'fade' Media messages after big rises or falls, etc. We especially like to hear grandiose, late predictions by sources that have historically stunk at predicting things, so we can 'fade' them. Just another nice little thing to know about my "PSYCLE sm".
Lesson # 2: technically, chart-wise, we want to try to "draw" a lazy "saucer" under the depressed stocks patterns here, for instance, on the Oil Service stocks herein, on the assumption and likelihood that their immediate new declines might stop, at the "right side of that drawn saucer", on further pullbacks, dig ? We assume that their Oct. lows will provide a/the "head", with their Sept. lows as the "left shoulder" of sorts....And, of course, the current drops, falling to become their right shoulder, ahead, holding, for most, above the Oct. lows, but below their Sept. lows, dig ? I hope this is clear....It's like a lazy "L" formation, possibly turning into a "teacup saucer" down the road....LEARN THIS PATTERN....Again, these types of stocks, this industry group, should represent just ONE position, in a properly diversified long AND put portfolio, and is "just another I.G.", PSY-chologically, right ? We have NO emotional or other attachments nor attractions to ANY industry group at any time.....to us, they are just vehicles to exploit, temporarily, period....So that, one Q, small loss in one of these, should be of little consequence.
IMPORTANT: people keep trying to "formula-ize/computerize" my "PSYCLE sm" process, which, as I keep saying, is a fruitless waste of your valuable time.... just get close, and do everything else correctly....The KEY is just plain learning the simple VISUAL chart patterns for each of the 7 sequential stages in my "logo chart" on my webpage and on the front of every Booklet.
As Repeated in Every NL:
As I keep reiterating, It is also still better most times, to, 1) buy "some"
stage 1 "PSYCLE sm" stocks, in depressed or EVB chart patterns, when their "news
seems so bad" but their patterns show EVB's (and have occasional, small, cut
losses), than to never do that at all....Because, historically, and as you have seen herein, any small, cut losses, will be more than overcome by larger % Gains, over time, off those EVB lows, when one properly Diversifies....and, to, 2) TRY at least "some" "Puts/options" the opposite way, near their Highs only, when/where suitable, than to never do any Puts ever....always diversifying properly, with close stops....no emotion.
Remember, "PSYCLE sm" stocks tend to move much more INDEPENDENTLY of any/all
"external" stuff, than "the 95 %" incorrectly believe....one does Not "need"
"events" to happen, in order to exploit normal, probable stock price moves.... this is a Good thing....One Key is to have the strength to Buy, when there is a "scary story", provided the stock pattern is intact....Connectedly, realize, by nature, there is SUPPOSED to be no "sexiness" in stocks/groups, near their lows, in bases, nor EVB's....they only become "sexy", After they rise a bunch, right ? and, by then, it is/will be too late....One must buy into NON-sexiness, into
NON-positiveness, into "fear", when the patterns are intact, right ? Also,
buying PUTS options "the Psycle Way", can be viewed as just plain intelligent/ logical, and proper, as just "insurance" or "protection", as well as for direct profit at times, yes ? The March tops, and July tops, and drops, have proven that
yet again.
*** Note: I share "so many" ideas herein, for two logical, service-oriented reasons: 1) to give You a more "Complete" picture of what is happening, worth knowing, and what might be done, and, 2) because some stocks/options given may be more "liquid/illiquid" than other....I share so many more, similarly positioned issues, so that more of my valued subscribers will be able to properly diversify, in various portfolios, for various objectives, etc. i.e., If I just gave out only a few stocks, some people would not be able to create complete Options Portfolios as easily, nor diversify properly, and pension plans cannot even do options, right ? Plus, by viewing many issues' CHARTS patterns, you will learn this quicker, yes ? While I share ALL applicable stocks ideas which befit different "PSYCLE sm" stages, Only, maybe 5-10-15-20, maximum, stocks are truly "worth acting on" at any given time, as per section (3) above, and, in sections (6) and (7) when/if those issues also properly set up, near their lows, right ?)